Professor Game PodcastYour Login Numbers Can't Tell If the Bar Is Right | Episode 465
Get the free Core Drives in the Wild guide, behavioral design applied to real products: professorgame.com/WildCD
Episode Summary
Rob breaks down adoption target difficulty, showing why login counts cannot tell you whether a goal is set right. He covers a 2026 Journal of Marketing Research study of the Australian micro-investing app Raiz Invest and a randomized test in a popular free-to-play puzzle game, drawing on both to explain why missed targets are associated with lower retention a year later. Listeners learn to measure the valuable action instead of the login and how to re-tune difficulty for each person.
About the Host
Rob Alvarez is Head of Engagement Strategy, Europe at The Octalysis Group (TOG), a leading gamification and behavioral design consultancy. A globally recognized gamification strategist and TEDx speaker, he founded and hosts Professor Game, the #1 gamification podcast, and has interviewed hundreds of global experts. He designs evidence-based engagement systems that drive motivation, loyalty, and results, and teaches LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® and gamification at top institutions including IE Business School, EFMD, and EBS University across Europe, the Americas, and Asia.
Key Takeaways
A 2026 Journal of Marketing Research study of the investing app Raiz found a goal feature helped most users but left a substantial segment no better or worse off, a split linked to how hard each goal was for the person.
In Raiz's email test, five message versions went to 10,000 customers each; among the 329 who adopted within two weeks, suggesting a recurring amount beat plain goal setting, while suggesting only an end goal did not.
Login counts did not differ across any Raiz test group, so a login-based metric would have missed what people were actually doing in the app, which is the valuable action a business needs to track.
In a randomized test of about 330,000 puzzle-game players, easier boards for players who had been playing less lifted win rates about 14 points and added about 10 rounds over 30 days; they used fewer boosters per round, yet total spending rose, against the company's expectation.
Missed targets were associated with lower retention a year later, a horizon that a seven-week test or a sprint review would never catch, which is why Rob recommends tracking the miss rate by segment and by period.
Core Drive 3 (Empowerment of Creativity & Feedback) acts as the feedback loop that keeps Core Drive 2 (Development & Accomplishment) meaningful when difficulty is re-tuned for each person.
Topics Covered
0:00 - Who set the bar on your last adoption target?
0:35 - Three ways a bar goes wrong
1:50 - The Raiz email test: recurring amounts beat plain goal setting
2:20 - Why login numbers miss real behavior
3:14 - The puzzle game test: easier boards, higher spending
4:24 - Five moves for setting the bar
6:57 - Would the person thank you if they could see the dial?
8:18 - Where to start: the Core Drives in the Wild guide
Mentioned in This Episode
Both studies below are published research, not client work.
An, Bonfrer and Eckert (2026), "Increasing App Engagement Behaviors via Goal-Enabling Technology Features: The Role of Goal Difficulty Dimensions," Journal of Marketing Research (the Raiz Invest study)
Ascarza, Netzer and Runge (2025), "Personalized Game Design for Improved User Retention and Monetization in Freemium Games," International Journal of Research in Marketing (the puzzle game test)
The Octalysis Framework
The Octalysis Group and Procter & Gamble sales gamification case study
Free Resources and Get in Touch
Core Drives in the Wild: Professor Game Free Guide
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