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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • 44 episodes
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  • English

Episodes 44

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  • S1 · E464
    July 7 · 57 min

    We Asked a $1 Billion Quant Manager Why Concentration Isn't a Warning — and Small Caps Aren't Dead

    Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners joins Excess Returns to explain how evidence-based investing can help investors navigate AI excitement, market concentration, high valuations, IPO hype, factor investing and fixed income tax drag. We discuss why bubbles are hard to identify in real time, why diversification still matters, how valuation spreads shape expected returns, what AI capex does and does not tell us, and how investors can think about taxable bonds more efficiently. Longview Research Partners https://longviewresearchpartners.com/ Main topics covered Why evidence-based investing matters during bubble-like markets The emotional reality of holding risk assets through painful periods How to think about market concentration without jumping straight to bubble calls Why global diversification changes the mega-cap dominance story What high market valuations mean for financial planning and expected returns Why wide valuation spreads may create a better setup for value stocks What factor research says about AI capex and corporate investment How Longview builds a diversified factor strategy around discount rates Why implementation, trading flexibility and scale matter in factor investing The small cap premium debate, IPOs, fallen angels and survivorship bias Why AI may increase data mining risk in quantitative investing How fixed income tax drag can quietly reduce after-tax returns Timestamps 00:00 Why painful markets create future return premiums 04:00 Market concentration, AI winners and the value of diversification 09:40 How high valuations should influence financial planning 13:12 Why wide valuation spreads matter for value investors 14:01 What factor research says about AI capex 16:20 How Longview's EBI strategy looks for higher discount rates 18:58 Why Longview starts with the market and then tilts 21:45 Comparing 1999, 2008 and today through expected returns 24:33 Intangible assets, price-to-book and the limits of accounting adjustments 28:32 SpaceX, IPOs and how indexes handle new mega-cap companies 33:21 Why implementation and trading flexibility can affect returns 36:17 Passive flows, price elasticity and market price discovery 39:35 The small cap premium, IPOs and fallen angels 42:21 Are today's small caps lower quality than history? 46:01 Why AI may not uncover the next great factor premium 48:04 Why fixed income may be the most inefficient part of taxable portfolios 51:29 How LVIG tries to convert bond income into deferred capital appreciation 52:50 The after-tax return opportunity from tax deferral 54:58 Which investors may benefit most from tax-efficient fixed income 56:26 Where to learn more about Matt Zenz and Longview

  • S1 · E463
    July 6 · 56 min

    The $600 Billion Loop | Jeff Klingelhofer on AI, the Return of Bonds and the Fed's Third Mandate

    Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific joins Excess Returns to break down the fragile circular relationship between AI capital spending, the stock market, the high-end consumer and the broader economy. We discuss fixed income markets, Fed policy, inflation, private credit, the national debt, business cycle risk and how investors should think about bonds after the end of the zero-rate era. Aristotle Pacific https://www.aristotlepacific.com/ Main topics covered Why AI CapEx has become one of the biggest drivers of the US economy and stock market How the high-end consumer, asset prices and AI spending have created a circular market setup Why today’s fixed income market is very different from the zero-rate era How bonds can serve as income, ballast and portfolio protection in the current environment Why the Fed may care more about inflation expectations than markets expect The Fed’s overlooked third mandate and what moderate long-term interest rates mean How Kevin Warsh could change the Fed’s approach to forward guidance, inflation and the balance sheet Why the business cycle is not dead, even if Fed intervention has lengthened it What investors should understand about the national debt, higher rates and inflation Why private credit is useful but not automatically better than public credit How flexible fixed income investing can find opportunities across credit, securitized markets and capital structures Why sentiment, not just fundamentals, drives market prices Timestamps 00:00 AI CapEx, the stock market and the fragile economic loop 04:03 Why fixed income markets look different after zero rates 08:45 Does the Fed still have investors’ backs? 13:43 Are AI companies using dangerous forms of financing? 18:54 Why starting yields change the stock bond hedge 23:42 The Fed’s overlooked third mandate 29:03 Why inflation expectation stability may drive Fed policy 33:11 How Kevin Warsh may change the Fed regime 38:46 What a smaller Fed balance sheet could mean for asset prices 43:24 The national debt, higher rates and inflation 50:25 Why fixed income should be managed across silos 55:08 The one lesson for the average investor

  • S1 · E462
    July 5 · 1 hr 1 min

    We Asked Meb Faber Why US Stocks Won for 250 Years — And If It Can Continue

    Meb Faber, co-founder and CIO of Cambria Investment Management, joins Excess Returns to discuss his new book, Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market. We explore why the United States became one of the greatest long-term compounding stories in market history, what investors can learn from 250 years of booms and busts, and why Meb can be optimistic about America while still cautious on today’s expensive market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Investing in America: The Rise of a 250 Year Bull Market https://amzn.to/4f1H5Aw Meb Faber on X https://x.com/MebFaber Main topics covered Why America can be viewed as the ultimate venture capital success story How joint stock companies, risk-taking and ownership helped shape the U.S. economy Why studying 250 years of market history changes how investors think about volatility The long-term case for stocks and why the time horizon matters so much Why bear markets are a natural part of capitalism and long-term compounding How U.S. market dominance happened and why it was not preordained Why expensive valuations, low dividend yields and new supply may matter today The role of dividends, buybacks, shareholder yield and reinvestment in long-term returns Why diversification across global stocks, bonds and real assets can help investors stay invested What gold, REITs and foreign stocks teach us about starting points and narratives Why early investing, child investment accounts and compounding can change investor behavior How creative destruction reshapes sectors, companies and the market leaders of each era Why Meb remains optimistic about America while still cautious on parts of the U.S. market Timestamps 00:00 Why America was not guaranteed to become the market winner 01:15 Meb Faber on writing Investing in America 02:25 America as the ultimate venture capital success story 06:22 How a culture of ownership helped the U.S. stock market compound 09:19 Why studying 250 years of market history matters 12:00 Why ownership is the core investing lesson 15:14 Bear markets, recessions and the danger of recent history 18:16 Why U.S. stocks beat the rest of the world by so much 22:20 Lessons from financial history that surprised Meb 27:05 Why stocks can lose for long periods and bonds can win 30:00 Why investors need to get used to being in a drawdown 33:24 Dividends, buybacks and the importance of reinvestment 37:27 Why gold and REITs beat the S&P 500 after 2000 40:55 How balanced portfolios survive different market regimes 43:03 The power of starting early and letting compounding work 48:16 Why global diversification matters outside the U.S. 50:40 Creative destruction, sector change and market leadership 55:20 Why Meb is still optimistic about investing in America 59:33 Where to find the book, Cambria and Meb online

  • July 3 · 1 hr 4 min

    Semis Gone Parabolic. Fed Credibility Reversal. Can the Rally Survive the Flows?

    In this episode of Last Call, we look back at June 2026 and break down the biggest market stories shaping investors’ outlook for the second half of the year. Matt Zeigler and Jack Forehand are joined by Andy Constan, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman to discuss the SpaceX IPO, AI and semiconductor cyclicality, Fed credibility, options flows, labor market quality, crack spreads and inflation risk. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Main topics covered Why the SpaceX IPO became the biggest market story of the month How index flows, ETF buying and hedge fund positioning shaped SpaceX trading Andy Constan on why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across AI stocks Why AI spending is benefiting semiconductors, memory and chip equipment companies The Fab Five companies behind semiconductor capacity and why they matter Ben Hunt on Fed credibility, market narratives, gold, the dollar and trust Brent Kochuba on options flows, correlation risk and volatility spasms in tech stocks Why short-term options volume may signal excess speculation in QQQ and AI stocks How SpaceX options trading changed after the first wave of retail excitement Eric Pachman on why headline job growth may hide weakness in wages and job quality Why crack spreads, refining constraints and oil logistics may matter more for inflation than crude prices alone What investors should watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory, innovation and market cycles Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:02 Matt and Jack introduce Last Call and the June market review 03:05 Why SpaceX dominated the month and how the IPO traded after opening 07:33 Andy Constan on Fab Five Freddy eating the semis 10:35 Why future earnings growth may be oversubscribed across the stock market 13:35 How AI compute spending flows through chips, fabs and semiconductor equipment 17:45 Are parts of the semiconductor market showing signs of an earnings bubble? 20:12 Ben Hunt on the Fed credibility chart that surprised him 23:50 Why Fed credibility, Sell America, gold and the dollar are connected 29:48 Brent Kochuba on options flows behind AI stocks, semis and SpaceX 33:36 Why semiconductor volatility may be warning of a short-term reset 38:46 What SpaceX options trading says after the initial surge 42:12 Eric Pachman on jobs, wages and what the Fed may be missing 48:24 Why crack spreads matter for oil, refining, gas prices and inflation 55:28 What to watch next in AI, semiconductors, memory demand and market cycles 59:01 Why efficiency, competition and cyclical thinking matter for AI investors 01:03:02 Matt and Jack close the episode No information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.

Showing 41–44 of 44 episodes