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Excess Returns

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • S1 · E494
    Yesterday · 1 hr 3 min

    The S&P 500 Is Only 50 Stocks. 70% of the Index Is in a Correction. Did the Sell-Off Already Happen?

    Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome? In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio. Topics covered: What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexes Interest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patterns Prediction markets as a source of information for investors AI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growth Why bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity risk Small-cap profitability and the importance of quality screens AI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investment Private-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationale Using thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive core Portfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexible Learn more about Tema ETFs. Follow Paisley Nardini on X. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market 04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook 09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets 13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership 19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns 26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality 33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers? 39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work 45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs 52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio 58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E493
    Saturday · 1 hr 2 min

    We Asked T. Rowe Price's $17B International Manager Why Value is Winning Again — and What the S&P 500 Leaves Out

    Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it. Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk. The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness. Topics covered: The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for value How higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity set AI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losers Valuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flow Using AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is broken The US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond tech Japan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced in China's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany it How restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock value Building a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narratives T. Rowe Price International Value Fund https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps: 00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor 07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s 11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set 16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers 21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk 25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research 29:56 Comparing US and international valuations 35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets 40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea 44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks 49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy 54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds 59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • Friday · 1 hr 3 min

    Tech Is Rolling Over. Yields Are Falling. Why Jim Paulsen is Watching the Walmart Recession Signal

    Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market. In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership. We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case. Topics covered: Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven" What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance Follow Jim Paulsen: Paulsen Perspectives Jim Paulsen on X Timestamps: 00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call 07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period 14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently 20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects 26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy 30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern? 35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency 42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven 47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure 53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal 58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • Wednesday · 1 hr 6 min

    AI Productivity Is Real. 83% of Stocks Are 10% Off Highs. Why Does Barry Ritholtz Like Bonds Again?

    Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it. Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts In this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market. Topics covered: Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantage Market breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOs Data center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological change Barry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstances How better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial advice Learning to collaborate with AI and asking better questions The debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serve Baseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimenting Deciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourself Barry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yield Find our guests: Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.com Ritholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.com Barry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/Ritholtz Dave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.com Dave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadig Timestamps: 00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question 05:14 AI concentration and market breadth 10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing 15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis 20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice? 25:49 Better client questions and better prompts 30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search 36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race 41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents 45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions 51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity 55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate 01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds 01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughts Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • October 11 · 1 hr 14 min

    The Winners That Get Away | Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses

    Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits? On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors. Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple Topics covered: Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistake How client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limits Chris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentives Robert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinks The bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistake What Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adapt Why identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returns Whether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to users How customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantages Balance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position ⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠ ⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠ Chapters: 00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits 06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk 12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives 19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson 30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary? 40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users 45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing 55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle 01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI 01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠. No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E492
    October 8 · 41 min

    Katie Stockton Still Sees a Bull Market. So Why Is Her ETF Only 50% in Stocks?

    Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies explains why the S&P 500 can reach record highs while many individual stocks struggle. She sees the bull market as intact, but weaker participation raises an important question for diversified investors: is the pullback creating opportunity, or signaling a more lasting change? In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to examine market breadth, rising Treasury yields, sector leadership and the signals that would change her outlook. She also explains why the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF holds roughly half its assets in equities at the time of the conversation, and walks through the charts for gold, oil and Bitcoin. Topics covered: Why narrow leadership can sustain the index while diversified portfolios lag The difference between an overbought market and a downturn in momentum Why weak breadth alone is not a reliable market-timing signal Small-cap support levels and the difference between a relief rally and a lasting recovery The Treasury-yield breakout and credit spreads as a longer-term risk gauge Sector relative strength, technology leadership and international market concentration How the TACK ETF's rules-based approach produces more defensive positioning Gold's role as a potential hedge despite a weakening price trend Crude oil's support and resistance levels and Katie Stockton's Bitcoin outlook The BNAV ETF's tactical Bitcoin strategy and the risk signals to watch into year-end Learn more about Fairlead Strategies. Follow Katie Stockton on X. Chapters: 00:00 The bull market and weakening breadth 06:02 Narrow leadership and small-cap weakness 13:43 Treasury yields, breakouts and resistance 18:56 Credit spreads and sector leadership 24:53 TACK positioning, semiconductors and international stocks 30:22 Gold, oil and Bitcoin: reading the trends 35:30 Bitcoin indicators and the BNAV strategy 39:47 Credit, volatility and tech: the year-end risk watch Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network. No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E491
    October 7 · 1 hr 5 min

    Tom Maher on Small-Cap Investing, AI Infrastructure and Opportunities Beyond Big Tech

    Tom Maher of Hilton Capital Management explains what is changing for small-cap stocks as earnings improve and AI spending reaches beyond big tech. After years of justified large-cap leadership, he sees reasons to revisit smaller companies while remaining selective about business quality, financing needs and valuation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we explore the physical infrastructure behind AI, the case for diversifying beyond the largest stocks, and how Tom Maher finds businesses with improving fundamentals. We also discuss the effects of passive investing, opportunities in reshoring, and why knowing more about a company does not always lead to a better investment decision. Topics covered: Why stronger earnings helped justify large-cap leadership and what could change that balance How AI construction and equipment spending can benefit smaller industrial companies Why some small companies grow into large caps while others remain small Self-funding businesses versus companies that depend on outside capital Unprofitable index constituents, private equity and the changing IPO market How interest rates affect financing costs, valuations and portfolio decisions Why ETF flows can move a stock independently of its business fundamentals Finding improving businesses without mistaking a low valuation for an opportunity Evaluating management incentives, consistency and acquisition decisions Tom Maher's lessons on taking partial profits and reading unexpected stock-price reactions Learn more about Hilton Capital Management. Chapters: 00:00 Tom Maher's outlook: earnings, valuations and risk 05:26 Small-cap earnings and AI infrastructure spending 11:41 Defining small caps and why some companies stay small 16:45 Active management and business quality 22:03 Small-cap index quality and companies staying private 27:15 Combining stock selection with a macro view 32:58 Higher interest rates and portfolio decisions 37:04 Passive investing and ETF-driven stock moves 41:33 Finding stocks with improving fundamentals 51:13 Valuation, consistency and management quality 56:39 Reshoring and the industrial recovery 01:01:14 Research, profit-taking and investor expectations Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network. No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E490
    October 4 · 59 min

    Ed Yardeni Still Sees S&P 10,000 by 2029. So Why Is He Getting More Cautious?

    Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research explains why he still sees the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2029, even as higher oil prices and bond yields make him more cautious near term. His destination hasn't changed, but the timetable has: he has pushed his 8,400 target to mid-2027 while retaining his Roaring 2020s outlook. In this conversation with Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand, Ed distinguishes an earnings-led bull market from a speculative melt-up, explains why retiring baby boomers keep spending, and makes the case for AI's benefits spreading beyond the Magnificent Seven. He also weighs the return of the bond vigilantes, diesel's inflation impact, global diversification and the risks that could challenge his optimistic base case. Topics covered: Ed Yardeni's FEMO: fabulous earnings momentum versus fear of missing out Why strong earnings can support stocks even as valuation multiples fall The assumptions behind Ed Yardeni's S&P 500 target of 10,000 by 2029 Retiree wealth, consumer spending and Ed Yardeni's G-shaped economy AI, productivity and data as a fourth factor of production Why Ed Yardeni favors the “impressive 493” as potential AI beneficiaries Cloud revenue, compute demand and the returns on AI capital spending Bond vigilantes, fiscal deficits and the difference between growth-driven yields and a debt crisis How diesel costs could feed into core inflation Global diversification and the bond market's role in guiding Fed policy Chapters: 00:00 Ed Yardeni's bull case and near-term caution 04:26 The Roaring 2020s and retiree spending 08:53 Technology and the productivity thesis 13:06 AI, economic growth and data as a resource 18:22 Why the economy is more than AI spending 24:10 AI returns and the impressive 493 29:48 Valuations, S&P 10,000 and rising bond yields 38:42 Government debt and demand for Treasuries 43:34 Diesel inflation and global diversification 47:41 Fed policy and signals from the bond market 51:55 Yardeni Research's process and tools 56:19 Why Ed Yardeni favors a G-shaped economy Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co

  • October 3 · 56 min

    The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. Nobody Is Buying Puts. Are You Watching the Wrong Market?

    Andy Constan, Brent Kochuba and Eric Pachman examine rising bond yields, options positioning and the inflation risks facing stocks. What happens if the rate relief traders are betting on never arrives? On this month's Last Call, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect three perspectives on the market. Andy Constan explains why stronger growth and debt supply can push yields higher without signaling a bond crisis. Brent Kochuba examines options flows that suggest traders are still leaning toward a rebound. Eric Pachman traces the path from refinery constraints and diesel shortages to freight costs and consumer inflation. Jack and Matt close with the investment implications of AI spending, efficiency and adoption. Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠ Topics covered: Andy Constan on growth, AI capital spending and the supply of debt Why Andy Constan sees more attractive bonds without calling for a recession How higher yields can constrain stock returns even when growth remains strong Brent Kochuba on bond volatility, calm equities and bets on falling yields Why Brent Kochuba is watching both upside surprises and downside risk Eric Pachman on crack spreads and why cheaper crude may not mean cheaper fuel How diesel prices can flow through freight bills into CPI Eric Pachman on wage inequality and what national averages miss AI spending, productivity and the difference between slower growth and contraction The practical obstacles to bringing AI agents into everyday life Chapters:00:00 Rising yields and the outlook for stocks05:26 Andy Constan: Growth, debt supply and higher yields12:01 Why bonds look more attractive after the selloff18:33 Brent Kochuba: Options flows and bets on rate relief23:21 Equity complacency and risks in both directions31:12 Eric Pachman: Diesel shortages, crack spreads and inflation40:06 Wage inequality and the limits of average inflation44:40 AI capital spending, productivity and investment returns50:34 AI adoption, automation and everyday obstacles Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠https://excessreturns.co⁠ No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E489
    October 1 · 1 hr 2 min

    They Beat All US Stock Funds Since 2003 | Michael Baron on the AI Winners Investors Miss

    Michael Baron of Baron Capital explains his case for AI beneficiaries beyond the biggest tech stocks, including software companies the market fears will be disrupted. He joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to discuss how competitive advantages, management quality, and a long investment horizon shape the firm's growth portfolios. Baron Capital's co-president and portfolio manager walks through the firm's investments in Tesla and SpaceX, from vertical integration and autonomous driving to reusable rockets, Starlink, and the potential for AI infrastructure in space. He also explains why proprietary data may strengthen some software businesses, how the firm manages positions as winners grow, and what would make him sell. The conversation closes with lessons from Ron Baron on curiosity, primary research, and building conviction. Topics covered: Finding growth opportunities across technology, financial services, real estate, and consumer businesses Why Michael Baron believes some apparent AI losers could become beneficiaries Proprietary data and the investment cases for Shopify, Guidewire, FactSet, MSCI, and Gartner Tesla's evolution, energy business, and the potential economics of autonomy and software SpaceX's reusable rockets, Starlink, and Michael Baron's vision for AI infrastructure in space Valuing businesses over a long horizon and assessing reliance on key leaders Lessons from Ron Baron and the importance of management relationships during market stress Letting winners run while managing concentration, leverage, and portfolio correlations Distinguishing portfolio trims from selling when a competitive advantage deteriorates Why Michael Baron believes AI will increase the importance of investment judgment Learn more about Baron Capital: https://www.baroncapitalgroup.com/ Chapters: 00:00 Michael Baron on finding growth beyond technology 04:16 AI disruption and the opportunity in software 10:54 Tesla, Elon Musk, and vertical integration 18:33 Long-term valuation and key-person risk 23:28 SpaceX, Starlink, and AI infrastructure in space 34:11 Lessons from Ron Baron and the firm's future 40:08 Evaluating management and competitive advantages 47:11 Time as an edge and managing growing positions 54:11 When to trim a position and when to sell 58:11 Curiosity, primary research, and conviction Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • September 29 · 50 min

    The Game Was Rigged in Their Favor. 28% Went Bust Anyway | Kris Abdelmessih on How to Size Bets

    How much of your portfolio does a good investment idea deserve? Kris Abdelmessih of Moontower joins Matt Zeigler to explain why having an edge is only part of the decision: position size can determine whether favorable odds translate into long-term growth or damaging losses. Through a coin-flipping experiment and everyday examples, Kris makes the Kelly Criterion accessible without a complicated derivation. The conversation explores the difference between expected returns and compounded wealth, why growth-maximizing bets can still be uncomfortable, and how uncertain probabilities make a case for betting less. From portfolio decisions to insurance and extended warranties, the goal is to build better intuition about how much risk to take. Topics covered: How a favorable coin-flipping game exposed costly mistakes in bet sizing Why maximizing the expected payoff of one bet differs from maximizing long-term compounded growth How oversized bets can undermine an otherwise profitable opportunity The Kelly Criterion's three inputs: probability of winning, probability of losing, and payoff Why a constant percentage of your bankroll means changing the dollar amount after wins and losses How different payoffs change the appropriate size of a bet Applying the framework to hypothetical self-insurance and extended-warranty decisions Why full Kelly can involve substantial drawdowns, and the tradeoffs of fractional Kelly Working backward from a position size to the odds needed to justify it Allowing for uncertainty in your estimates and preserving capital for future opportunities The essay behind this conversation: After this post you will be sizing bets in your head https://www.panoptica.com/after-this-post-you-will-be-sizing-bets-in-your-head/ Research discussed: Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01427 Kris Abdelmessih's Moontower newsletter: https://moontower.substack.com/ Moontower: https://moontower.ai/ Kris Abdelmessih on X: https://x.com/KrisAbdelmessih Chapters: 00:00 Position sizing and the favorable coin-flip experiment 04:45 Why a good bet can produce bad outcomes 13:49 The Kelly Criterion formula explained 18:10 Adjusting your bankroll and accounting for the payoff 23:03 Applying Kelly to a self-insurance decision 30:25 Full Kelly, drawdowns, and reasons to bet less 34:59 Working backward from bet size and evaluating warranties 41:09 Volatility drag, uncertain odds, and the experiment's results 46:09 How much capital does your edge deserve? Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E488
    September 26 · 1 hr 13 min

    We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

    What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins. Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible. Topics covered: Why monthly jobs reports need context, including survey uncertainty and revisions How to spot unusual industry-level payroll changes and assess the quality of jobs added What county-level labor force trends reveal about aging and rural America Eric Pachman's research on foreign-born workers and the limits of replacement assumptions How a shrinking supply of workers could create pressure on service prices How diesel costs flow through freight surcharges, retailer margins, and consumer prices What to watch for in retailer earnings calls as companies weigh price increases Why household income, driving habits, and spending patterns change the experience of inflation What Eric Pachman's Kroger study found about CPI, the Thrifty Food Plan, and store brands Using AI to test assumptions and expand access to data journalism Explore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools: https://www.data4thepeople.com/ The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacement https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished How do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones? https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/ Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission 09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data 18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force 27:00 Foreign-born workers, aging, and labor supply 34:51 Energy costs and the path to consumer inflation 47:49 Why your inflation experience differs from CPI 56:12 Personal inflation tools and testing grocery prices 1:02:36 AI, data journalism, and challenging your own bias 1:11:17 Where to find Eric Pachman's work and tools Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E487
    September 23 · 59 min

    He Lost $157,000 in 3 Minutes | Jack Raines on the Lesson Winning Never Taught Him

    Jack Raines turned $6,000 into roughly $400,000 trading SPACs, then lost $157,000 in three minutes after taking a very different bet. The author of Young Money joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what that experience taught him about investing risk, the urge to chase more, and the time a growing portfolio can cost you. The conversation follows Jack Raines from SPAC warrants and market narratives to a broader question: how do you allocate money, time, and risk to build a life you actually want? They explore the limits of a trading edge, why cheap stocks can get cheaper, and how debt, career choices, and status shape the decisions investors make beyond their portfolios. Young Money: A Field Guide to Wealth and Purpose in Your Twenties https://amzn.to/4AtUsDoJack Raines' Young Money newsletter https://www.youngmoney.co/ Jack Raines on X https://twitter.com/Jack_Raines Topics covered: How Jack Raines grew his Roth IRA through SPAC warrants and pre-merger common shares, and why those positions carried different risks. Why an edge in one corner of the market did not translate into a successful concentrated earnings bet. How a million-dollar target and constant account checking changed Jack Raines' relationship with money and time. What SEC filings, Discord research, and market narratives contributed to his trading process. Why Jack Raines bought Figma after questioning the market's AI narrative and speaking with designers. Applying portfolio thinking to careers, creative projects, and opportunities that change with each stage of life. Weighing retirement saving against other opportunities, and why Jack Raines treats expensive debt as a constraint on taking risks. Escaping the "someday" trap while giving long-term venture investments time to develop. Combining steady income and index funds with independent bets, while treating status as a tool rather than a goal. Why Jack Raines believes investors learn about risk through experience, with stakes they can afford to recover from. Timestamps: 00:00 Jack Raines on the lessons of losing money 04:57 Inside the SPAC trades and the $157,000 loss 15:16 Separating market hype from downside math 22:18 Building a life with portfolio principles 29:45 Retirement saving, trading obsession, and the cost of time 36:56 Debt, freedom, and the trap of waiting for someday 44:33 Venture investing: acting quickly and waiting patiently 51:03 Using status without making it the goal 56:08 The investing lesson experience has to teach Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E486
    September 20 · 55 min

    The AI Gap Is Closing | Jason Hsu on China, Momentum Crashes and the S&P’s Seven-Stock Bet

    Jason Hsu, founder and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of Research Affiliates, joins Excess Returns to discuss the US-China AI race, the economics of AI spending, and what market concentration means for investors. We explore China's energy and open source advantages, opportunities in Chinese stocks, and how factor investing and machine learning can help build more diversified portfolios. Rayliant Global Advisors https://rayliant.com Rayliant on X https://twitter.com/rayliant Topics covered: Why Jason believes AI safety requires cooperation between the US and China How Chinese AI models are closing the gap with US developers China's electricity infrastructure and the competitive threat from open source AI Where AI profits could accrue across hardware, energy, models and applications How chip restrictions are encouraging China to develop domestic capabilities Why retail trading creates opportunities and challenges for factor investors in China Chinese technology companies, dividend-paying state enterprises and US-China trade The AI spending arms race and the concentration risk facing S&P 500 investors Momentum crashes, value cycles and how Rayliant uses machine learning to combine factors Why advisors' greatest contribution may be helping clients find meaning in their wealth Timestamps: 00:00 Jason Hsu on AI competition and safety 04:00 How close are Chinese AI models to the US? 08:25 China's energy advantage and open source economics 14:12 Who captures AI profits, and can China catch up in chips? 18:41 Chinese stocks, retail trading and speculation 24:01 China's overlooked opportunities and dividend stocks 28:05 US-China interdependence and the AI spending arms race 33:24 The AI concentration hiding in the S&P 500 37:25 Momentum crashes, value cycles and factor performance 41:54 Machine learning and building multifactor portfolios 48:46 Financial advisors, Jack Bogle and having enough 53:23 Why inefficient markets do not make alpha easy Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • S1 · E485
    September 18 · 1 hr 1 min

    David Rosenberg on Why He Wants the Bonds Everyone Hates — and Where He's Hiding in Stocks

    David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio. Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. David Rosenberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie Rosenberg Research https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/ Topics covered: Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness Timestamps: 00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity 05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending 10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect 17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook 22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks 27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities 31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio 36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus 42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar 48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027 53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested 58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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    September 16 · 55 min

    Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson on AI, Private Markets, and the Hidden Risks in Index Funds

    Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson. Franklin Templeton https://www.franklintempleton.com Topics covered: Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionals How Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgment Building personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goals How blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costs Tokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chain Why companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocks Private credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private markets How mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentration Balancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term future The value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to work Timestamps: 00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO 06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions 10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading 15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management 20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access 24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work 29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs 35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending 41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation 46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early 51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI tools Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  • September 14 · 1 hr 1 min

    Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear

    Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500. ⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts Topics covered: Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors. Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled. Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing. How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship. Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending. How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears. Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks. What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk. How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies. Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation. The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity. Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500. Timestamps: 00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim 05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings 09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading 16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs 20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income? 26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks 31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears 36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street 41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds 47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning 51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity 58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correction Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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    September 12 · 1 hr

    We Asked Fidelity's Ex-President What Made Peter Lynch Great — and Where Private Credit Risk Hides

    Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks. Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting. Bob Pozen's website https://www.bobpozen.com Follow Bob Pozen on Twitter https://x.com/Pozen Research discussed: Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experience https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120 Rating Without Market Discipline https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158 Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credit https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958 Topics covered: What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's. Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal. Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat. Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups. How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets. Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions. How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans. Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation. Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment. The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity. Timestamps: 00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course 05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested 11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal 16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds 20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns 24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks 29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments 35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting 40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans 44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash 50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters 55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance 59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity tools Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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    September 10 · 1 hr 5 min

    Everyone Hates Bonds. Why Two Bond Managers Say You're Hating the Wrong Ones

    John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio. The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it. High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bonds https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/ Janus Henderson Investors https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/ Topics covered: Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevated How the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond market How AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cash Why tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors take The three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insurance How duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's income Why bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not trading How Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative value Why AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflation How to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolio Timestamps: 00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns 04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed 10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index 14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk 20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads 26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds 30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield 36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress 41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply 46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations 50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation 55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio 01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity risk Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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    September 8 · 56 min

    All-In on the S&P 500 Worked for 18 Years | Jared Dillian on Why It's Still Wrong

    Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets. Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy. Buy The Awesome Portfolio Book https://amzn.to/3Tf3of7 Topics covered: Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500 How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio Including home equity when measuring your overall asset allocation Why volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisions The life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining together Why Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdowns Index concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversification The portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022 Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrency Managing FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolio Timestamps: 00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio 06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio 11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap 15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together 20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration 24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 2022 28:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 2022 34:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings 38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO 44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes 48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis 53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirement Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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