trading places

Meta's Muse Agent Hits #1, Anthropic Eyes a $2T IPO, a Fed Hike & Shield AI at $20B | Trading Places Podcast Ep49 ft. Dan Gray (Odin)

In this episode of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the week's biggest stories in tech and venture. First, the Fed's first rate hike under new chair Warsh and what >$90 oil could mean for the midterms. Then they get into Anthropic moving its IPO to November, OpenAI's potential $1.2 trillion pre-IPO round, and Aman's theory on the real reason AI giants are calling for regulation. They also cover Nscale's neocloud IPO, the growth of European AI with Mistral and Cohere, and Meta's Muse agent passing ChatGPT in App Store downloads. Dave then sits down with Dan Gray, research lead at Odin. Dan breaks down all current trends in venture, and provides a compelling bear case on upcoming AI IPOs. In Valuation Corner, Aman breaks down autonomous defense tech company Shield AI's reported $20B raise: how it compares to Anduril and Saronic, what its founders bring, and why investing in defense is trending right now. 1:06 - [ tech and vc news ] 3:29 - Fed rates jump to 4%, gas @ $4.50/gal 8:16 - Anthropic delays IPO; OpenAI raising @ $1.2T 12:00 - Does AI need govt regulation? 16:54 - Nscale files for IPO 20:45 - EU AI rising: Mistral @ $24B, Cohere @ $20B 24:07 - Gemini joins AI hacker club 25:33 - Meta launches AI agent Muse; Instinct raising @ $10B 33:47 - [ intvw: Dan Gray, research lead, Odin ] 39:48 - Venture has eaten the IPO 41:19 - Shifting VC strategies 58:45 - How AI could upend VC industry 1:13:39 - Contrarian take on upcoming AI IPOs 1:13:21 - [ valuation corner: Shield AI seeks $20B ] 1:17:08 - Impressive founding brothers 1:18:30 - Why VC defense investment is growing 1:22:18 - Breaking down world-wide defense budgets Trading Places is the world's worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity. [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ dan gray = https://www.linkedin.com/in/dangjr/ | https://x.com/credistick ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research. #ShieldAI #DefenseTech #VentureCapital #Anthropic #PrivateMarkets

AI Giants Hit the Breaks, Harvey AI Hits $15.5B, Oura Files for a $16B IPO and more w/ Dave McClure & Aman Verjee

Dario Amodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." Sam Altman and Elon agreed. Dave and Aman aren't buying the official story. They break down why slowing down might be good for business, and why they would welcome government regulation. The macro backdrop compounds things. Oil's back over $100, the 10-year just touched 5% for the first time since 2023, and the national deficit keeps rising past $40 trillion. Dave and Aman debate whether Washington will ever get serious about the debt, or whether AI-driven growth is the only way out. Additionally: Oura is reportedly eyeing a $16B IPO, a wave of AI mega-rounds landed: Cognition at $48B, Crusoe at $30B, Shield AI at $20B. And corporate tender offers are on pace to hit 600 deals this year as companies stay private longer and look for new ways to give employees liquidity. Plus: a Valuation Corner deep-dive on Harvey AI, the legal-tech company that just raised at $15.5B. Aman breaks down Harvey's founding story, and discusses how they might protect themselves from ruin against the AI giants. [ Tech & VC News ] 03:07 ⁠state of the economy: oil, interest rates, and inflation all up 06:25 importance of reducing the deficit 08:13 ⁠AI leaders hit the brakes 20:27 ⁠why AI giants want to be regulated 25:22 upcoming Oura IPO 28:34 ⁠mega-round raises for a host of AI companies 38:09⁠ ⁠tender offer boom 43:30 [ Valuation Corner: Harvey AI @ $15.5B ] 45:42 ⁠founder stories 47:43 ⁠breaking down the legal AI ecosystem 50:07 ⁠⁠Harvey vs AI giants 57:30 ⁠⁠tribute to a legend: Bill Draper [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching! #amanverjee #VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #davemcclure #bigbubbletrouble

Anthropic's $30T Claim, NVIDIA's Blowout, and the AI Bubble Debate

Anthropic had a massive week. The company is targeting $30 trillion in potential revenue, roughly the size of US GDP. A federal judge also struck down the Trump administration's attempt to label Anthropic a "supply chain risk,” a major hurdle cleared ahead of its IPO. The company also locked in a $45B compute deal with Enscale. Its AI infrastructure spending now tops $150B. Nvidia had a big week too. The company posted a blowout $96B Q2 and purchased Hugging Face for $13B. Dave and Aman break down why Nvidia has shifted strategy. It's now fortifying the entire open-source AI ecosystem so no single LLM provider gets too much leverage. Additionally: New details on that recent OpenAI hack of Hugging Face. Chinese open-weight models keep gaining user share. Meta settles a landmark $17B social-media addiction lawsuit - its implication for the industry going forward. Dave and Aman also break down Elon’s latest move. Plus: a wide-ranging interview with Hoxton Ventures' Hussein Kanji on building a European venture firm from scratch, and a Valuation Corner deep-dive on Neoclouds. [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ hussein kanji =⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/hkanji⁠ |⁠ ⁠⁠https://x.com/hkanji⁠ ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching! #husseinkanji #amanverjee #VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #davemcclure

NVIDIA's AI Empire: Chips, Startups, and Jensen Huang's Endgame

This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down Nvidia's expanding AI ecosystem, a billion-dollar stake plus exclusive licensing with Poolside, an investment in data supplier Mercor at $20B, and a bet on Perplexity as it raises at $30B. Plus: OpenAI's CFO signals a 2027 IPO, Chinese open-weight models overtake closed models in usage, the Cursor and OpenRouter deals officially close, investors cash out big while Sam Bankman Fried sits out his winnings in jail, fresh mega-rounds for Lovable, Higgsfield, and Lambda, PitchBook's Emily Zheng on the secondary market, and Aman's valuation corner on sports-franchise economics after the Lakers sold for a record $12.5B. Timestamps: 00:00 - cold open 01:06 - [ tech and vc news ] Aman plays the US Open and book launch 🎾 03:15 - Nvidia moves $19B on their open AI ecosystem 💰 09:08 - leaked timeline for OpenAI IPO ⏲️ 10:45 - the Anthropic vs. OpenAI horserace 🐎 18:50 - open weight AI models usage is growing 📈 22:43 - investors cash out big on SpaceX-Cursor acquisition 🤑 25:00 - SBF sat out his big win in jail 🔐 26:45 - OpenRouter acquired by Stripe 🧾 30:11 - Lovable at $13B 💪 30:30 - Higgsfield raises at $5B 🚀 33:53 - Lebron bonds 🏀 37:01 - [ intvw: Emily Zheng, PitchBook ] the state of the VC secondary market 🤔 39:45 - the next top-10 VC secondary startups 🏪 43:40 - the top sectors in Q2 2026 🎩 45:02 - potential trouble in the SPV market 😟 52:10 - the future of tender offers👂 57:45 - 2027 predictions 🗓 59:51 - the changing nature of the IPO 🔃 1:03:02 - [ valuation corner: Lakers sell for $12.5B ] Lakers sale price breaks NBA record 🏅 1:04:30 - tax benefit to owning a sports franchise 📑 1:06:30 - breaking down the most valuable sports teams 🏟 1:09:11 - how different leagues manage revenue ⚾️ 1:12:17 - why the Cowboys are the most valuable team in sports 🏈 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ emily zheng = https://www.linkedin.com/in/emzheng/ | https://x.com/EMZheng47 ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research. #Nvidia #AI #VentureCapital #Perplexity #PrivateMarkets

Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Inside the $2 Trillion IPO Race

This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the Anthropic roadshow numbers and leaked internal forecasts, Nvidia securing a $500B financing coalition of six Wall Street giants, and the SpaceX $60B acquisition of Cursor. Plus: the Canva growth slowdown rattles its IPO case, Databricks becomes a top-5 private company at $190B, and Aman celebrates the NYC launch of his new book, A Brief History of Financial Bubbles. 00:00 – cold open 00:45 – [ tech and vc news ] 00:56 – Aman’s “History of Financial Bubbles” book launch 📖 01:20 – are we in a bubble right now? 🫧 02:00 – Anthropic IPO in Sept/Oct? ⏳️ 05:30 – ⁠⁠Nvidia mobilizes $500B with 6 Finance Giants 🏢 11:22 – AI race: Anthropic is Secretariat, OpenAI is Twice a Prince 🏇 12:06 – potential timeline for OpenAI IPO 🤷‍♂️ 14:22 – SpaceX acquires Cursor for $60B 🤑 16:11 – Canva growth rates slow down, valuation cut 😢 20:55 – Stripe acquires OpenRouter for $7B 💳 22:41 – Silver Lake takes Workday private 🔐 24:26 – Databricks valued at $190B 💰 26:17 – Kalshi and Cognition raise at $40B valuation each 🏅 29:02 – [ valuation corner: Hadrian @ $8B ] 33:00 – solving long-standing problems in weapons manufacturing 🏹 33:28 – can set up new production lines in months, not years 🏭 35:00 – signed massive contract with US Navy 🚢 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research. #Anthropic #IPO #VentureCapital #DefenseTech #PrivateMarkets

Bending Spoons at $30B: Brilliant Roll-Up or Overvalued? + SpaceX, Airtable & VC News

Is Bending Spoons really worth nearly $30 billion? This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the Italian software roll-up after its $2.25B acquisition of Airtable — and ask whether buying challenged SaaS companies at 3–4x revenue can justify Bending Spoons trading around 10x revenue. Timestamps: 00:39 - [ tech and vc news ] 02:00 - historic Q2 earnings💲 05:18 - SpaceX stock rises 📈 09:53 - ⁠Elon scores AI wins after Grok 'miss' 💪 11:44 - Nvidia partners with Elon 💽 15:55 - Elon is planning the largest building in the world 🏢 18:10 - SpaceX buys Cursor 🚀 19:47 - OpenAI slashes prices 🔖 22:34 - Pitchbook Q2 report on VC Secondary Market 🛍 29:54 - Zach Dell starts energy company: Base Power @$13B🔌 30:38 - defense-tech startup Hadrian on the rise @8B 🪖 31:06 - AI power crunch fuels Valar Atomics @$6B ⚛️ 34:45 - Palmer Luckey joins Elon, Bezos and Dorsey 🏦 37:57 - Bending Spoons buys Airtable 💰 42:14 - the SaaSpocalypse is real 🧟‍♂️ 47:25 - [ valuation corner: Bending Spoons, Luca Ferrari ] 49:09 - unconventional background of Milan-based founder Luca Ferrari 🇮🇹 50:03 - buying up famous internet names 🏚 50:38 - determining if their current value is justified 🤔 52:26 - recent acquisition of Airtable 💨 54:14 - why the Bending Spoons business model makes sense 👍 57:35 - second takes 😂[ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research.

Can Helsing Become Europe’s Anduril? Inside Its $18B Valuation

Is Helsing becoming Europe’s answer to Anduril? In this episode of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the German defense technology company’s new $18 billion valuation, its AI-powered autonomous systems, its battlefield testing in Ukraine, and the growing pressure on Europe to build its own defense capabilities. Aman compares Helsing’s software-first model with Anduril’s vertically integrated hardware-and-software approach—and explains why Helsing’s limited access to the U.S. defense market may be the biggest factor determining whether its valuation is justified. Dave also sits down with Kelly Rodriques, CEO of Forge Global, now part of Charles Schwab, to discuss the rapidly expanding private secondary market. 00:00 – cold open 00:47 – [ tech and vc news ] 02:41 – The Fed votes to hold rates steady 🏦 07:20 – Q2 Earnings Week: how big tech did last quarter 📈 09:22 – how big tech makes their money - diagramed 📊 12:08 – Situational Awareness - Aschenbrenner loses his shirt 😢 16:11 – the highly volatile Korean stock market 🇰🇷 18:14 – SpaceX shares unlock August 6 🚀 22:14 – Anthropic and OpenAI models hack into systems of other companies 🚨 25:37 – Big Tech employee tender offers 🧾 29:44 – Uber founder's new company and jet ski commute 🚤 32:51 – [ intvw: Kelly Rodrigues, Forge Global ] 33:19 – his journey into private markets 👔 35:57 – why companies stay private longer now 🔐 37:00 – the new secondary market "middle world"🏬 40:20 – the Forge customer type 🙋‍♂️ 46:30 – how to buy private companies on Forge 💳 49:00 – why Charles Schwab bought them out💲 57:04 – what SpaceX IPO can teach AI giants 🛰️ 1:05:15 – predictions for markets in coming year 🕔 1:06:58 – [ valuation corner: Helsing @ $18B ] 1:07:12 – the Munich-based company raised $1.8B 🇪🇺 1:07:45 – inspired by Clausewitz 🪖 1:11:45 – how military budgets are changing 💶 1:12:32 – how Helsing compares to Anduril and Saronic 🚁 Trading Places is the world’s worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity.[ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ kelly rodriques = https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418 | https://x.com/frgeglobal ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research. #Helsing #DefenseTech #VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #Anduril #SpaceX #ForgeGlobal

SpaceX's First Earnings Report as a Public Company 🚨 SPECIAL EPISODE

SpaceX just reported earnings for the first time since going public — and the numbers were a rollercoaster. Revenue beat estimates by a mile (+92% YoY), EBITDA came in strong, and every business segment posted growth. So why did the stock give up its gains and drop 8% after hours? In this special breakdown, Dave and Aman dig into: 0:27 SpaceX first earnings report 🚀 5:45 how SpaceX makes money 💸 6:38 the importance of EBITDA 📖 8:04 detailing SpaceX revenue 📈 12:55 bull and bear case for SpaceX stock 🐂 17:13 chances of a SpaceX-Tesla merger 🤝 23:40 Dave’s 60th birthday 🎂 This is a special one-off episode — full episode with our regular format comes out tomorrow. Thanks for tuning in! [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research.

Anduril Hits $100B, Saronic Hits $9B 💥 Inside the Defense Tech Boom w/ Dave McClure and Aman Verjee

Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down why venture capital is pouring into autonomous defense companies, how Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic and a new generation of startups are challenging the traditional defense primes, and why expanding military budgets outside the United States could create an enormous new market. They also discuss the growing threat Chinese open-weight AI models pose to OpenAI and Anthropic, including Kimi K3’s near-frontier performance at a fraction of the apparent cost. Could cheaper open models force the leading American AI labs to compete harder—or will Washington restrict access? 00:45 - [ tech and vc news ] 01:51 - the Iran war: will it ever end? 🛢️ 03:15 - Google: first negative cash-flow quarter ever 😢 09:55 - SpaceX continues to fall 📉 12:21 - Chinese open-source AI vs. American AI 🤼‍♂️ 16:47 - When will Anthropic go public? 📊 22:32 - most recent Chinese IPOs 🇨🇳 26:17 - massive valuation for Databricks 🤑 27:06 - Where is the IPO market headed? 🧾 31:57 - [ valuation corner: defense tech on the rise ] 32:03 - Anduril seeking $100B valuation 🛩 33:53 - why defense tech is soaring 🚀 35:37 - military-tech leaders: the new generation 🪖 38:04 - how military budgets are changing 🗃 47:49 - second takes 😂 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching! #Anduril #saronic #shieldai #defensetech #venturecapital

US vs. China AI: OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek & Moonshot Go to War

The AI arms race just got a lot more interesting. Moonshot's Kimi K3 is topping leaderboards ahead of proprietary US models, DeepSeek is raising at a $71B valuation ahead of its own IPO, and Anthropic is quietly lining up bankers for a Q4 listing that could value the company at $2-3 trillion. Meanwhile SpaceX has broken its IPO price, Stripe just made a $53B run at PayPal, and European defense tech is heating up with Helsing's $18B raise. Then Adam Crawley (Augment) and Marcelo Ballvé (Sacra) join to break down the new Augment Power 20 — how the rankings are built, who's moving up (hello Neuralink and Crusoe), and their bold predictions for Q3. We close out with a Valuation Corner deep dive on Crusoe, the neo-cloud infrastructure company reportedly raising at a $30B valuation, and where it fits into the broader AI stack. 0:00 - cold open 00:53 - [ tech and vc news ] 2:00 - post-IPO SpaceX: big flop? 📉 5:39 - Anthropic races to Q4 IPO 💰 7:26 - Chinese AI vs. US models 🇨🇳🇺🇸 14:26 - DeepSeek raises $1.5B @ $71B 🤖 16:15 - Stripe bids $53B for PayPal, not enough? 💸 22:49 - the European Anduril: Helsing 🛩️ 24:46 - [ intvw: adam crawley @augment & marcelo ballvé @sacra ] 27:24 - how Power 20 rankings are calculated 💡 33:02 - most active 💪 Power 20 companies Q2 '26 40:08 - largest risers 📈 in price gains 42:15 - bold predictions for Q3 🔮 54:37 - [ valuation corner: crusoe @ $30B ] 55:03 - rapid revenue growth 🚀 58:29 - the AI "stack" breakdown 🍰 1:01:11 - pick-and-shovel play ⛏️🪏 1:05:07 - second takes 😂 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ adam crawley = https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-crawley-b2146753/ | https://x.com/adamcrawley1 ] [ augment = https://augment.market/ ] [ marcelo ballvé = https://www.linkedin.com/in/marceloballve/ | https://x.com/ballve ] [ sacra = http://sacra.com/ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching **Please note: Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. For informational purposes only. Augment Markets, Inc. is a technology company offering software and data services with securities-related services offered through its wholly-owned but separately managed subsidiary Augment Capital, LLC, Member of FINRA/ SIPC. Read our full disclosure statement here. #tradingplacespodcast #sacra #augmentmarkets #davemcclure #secondarymarket

Can Jeff Bezos Catch Elon Musk? Blue Origin at $130B | Reflection AI vs. DeepSeek | Interview with Shawn Bercuson

Welcome back to Trading Places, the weekly show covering the biggest stories in venture capital, private markets, AI, IPOs, and secondaries. This week, Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin make headlines with a $10B raise at a $130B valuation, igniting the next chapter in the battle with Elon Musk and SpaceX. We also break down OpenAI’s new multi-model strategy, the growing threat from open-weight AI models, Meta’s move into hyperscale cloud computing, Kalshi’s explosive valuation, and much more. Then we’re joined by Shawn Bercuson, Founder & CEO of Earlyasset Capital, for an in-depth conversation about the future of venture secondaries, liquidity, SPVs, private market investing, and why the next decade could fundamentally reshape private capital markets. Timestamps: 00:56 — [ tech and vc news ] 03:05 — setter top 30: the secondary scoreboard 🏆 07:53 — ⁠us vs anthropic ceasefire 🤝 12:11 — openai ships gpt-5.6: sol / terra / luna 🌕 13:24 — china vs us ai: does cheap/open reset the race 🌏 19:15 — meta back: low-cost models, rentable compute 🔋 21:17 — $SKHY raises $26B, mkt cap >$1T 💾 23:25 — blue origin: $10b on $130b 🚀 26:33 — kalshi raising at $40b, polymarket lagging 🎲 30:29 — [ intvw: Shawn Bercuson @ Earlyasset Capital ] ⁠from groupon to secondaries: an origin story 🍩 38:45 — bull vc: liquidity for distressed shares 🐂 43:30 — the law of 30 (really 50) 📏 46:18 — dailypay, SPVs, and the anthropic fallout ⚠️ 58:20 — ⁠⁠the private market in ‘27 and ‘28 🔮 1:01:08 — [ valuation corner: Reflection AI @ $25B ] the raise and the team 💰 1:04:35 — deepseek vs reflection: revenue and multiples 🇨🇳 1:07:05 — mapping the ai landscape: cost vs efficacy 🗺️ 1:10:00 — coding assistants and the verdict on reflection 🤖 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ shawn bercuson = https://www.linkedin.com/in/shawnbercuson | https://earlyasset.com/ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #vcsecondary #SteveBercuson #davemcclure #BlueOrigin

DeepSeek's $50B Round, OpenAI's Delayed IPO, and the GP Stakes Market with CAZ Investments

DeepSeek just raised $7.4B at a $50B valuation 🇨🇳and there's no cap table access. It's structured through an SPV, no voting rights, no board seats. CEO Liang Wenfeng put in $3B of his own money and controls the vehicle. Meanwhile Anthropic is trading above $1T on the secondary market despite Mythos getting staged by the government, and SpaceX just locked in its Nasdaq 100 slot with a $2T valuation on a float of only ~6%. Plus: Michael O'Keefe of CAZ Investments breaks down how a $12B GP stakes portfolio actually gets built. 00:00 – cold open 00:54 – [ tech and vc news ] 02:33 – SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100 🚀 08:39 – Anthropic hits $1T valuation & IPO outlook 💸 14:45 – OpenAI builds its own chip + 2027 IPO delay 🤖 18:07 – AI memory demand surges (Micron wins, Apple/customers pay more) 💾 20:24 – Cerebras falls below its IPO price 📉 22:46 – AI token costs rising; customers shift to Chinese open-weight models 🔄 28:24 – Bending Spoons targets ~$19–20B IPO on profitable roll-up strategy 🥄 32:56 – [ intvw: Michael O’Keefe @ CAZ ] 33:22 – CAZ manages $12B AUM 💰 36:04 – What is GP stake investing? 📊 44:19 – Typical check sizes & fund sizes 45:45 – How GP stakes are valued 📈 56:52 – Where CAZ is investing today: AI, energy, sports 🤖 1:00:05 – The secondary market boom 🔥 1:02:45 – [ valuation corner: DeepSeek @ $50B ] 1:03:40 – Largest seed round ever? 🏆 1:04:45 – SPV mechanics & stockholder structure 🛠️ 1:07:40 – Users and revenue growth 📈 1:10:25 – DeepSeek vs. OpenAI comparison 🆚 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ michael o’keefe = https://www.linkedin.com/in/mjoii/ | https://cazinvestments.com/ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #SpaceX #ClaraVydyanath #davemcclure #SpaceXIPO

SpaceX Surges, Anthropic Stumbles, and Bezos Bets $12B

SpaceX just finished its first week as a public company. Anthropic just had its newest model frozen by the US government. And Jeff Bezos just raised $12B for a startup that's been alive for about a year. Dave and Aman break it all down — from SpaceX IPO mechanics and gamma squeeze risk, to the Dario vs. Washington standoff that could derail the Anthropic IPO, to Bezos's $41B physical AI bet, a massive Salesforce acquisition of a 500 Startups alum, and why Mistral and Cohere just became the Dr. Pepper of AI. Plus: the Valuation Corner returns with Powerlaw (PWRL) — the new retail-accessible VC fund from Ben Black and Mike Dinsdale backed by Acadian. Dave and Aman break down the portfolio, the price-to-NAV, and whether it's worth the ride. 00:48 - [ tech news and vc ] 02:58 - oil down, defense up 🚀 10:31 - SpaceX week one on the tape 📈 15:15 - Anthropic gets frozen 🧊 30:30 - SaaS enters valuation winter ❄️ 33:42 - Bezos bets $12B on an AI engineer 🤖 36:30 - Mistral doubles to $23B 💸 42:15 - Saronic unmanned ship saves lives 🛟 43:20 - [ val corner: PWRL Ben Black ] how Power Law gives retail a chance 🙏 46:06 - portfolio breakdown 💼 47:15 - strategy pros and cons 👍👎 49:29 - manager accolades 💐 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #spacex #anthropic #mistralai #secondaries #venturecapital

The SpaceX IPO Report Card, OpenAI vs. Anthropic, and the Private Market No One Talks About | CJ Gustafson w/ Guest CJ Gustafson

The SpaceX IPO just happened. Dave and Aman break down the grades, the winners, and what comes next — then sit down with CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO and founder of Mostly Metrics, to dig into the private market pricing mechanics that most investors get completely wrong. This week: SpaceX Day 1 results and the $75B raise that dwarfed an entire year of VC-backed IPOs. The updated Private Mag Seven — who stays, who goes public, and who replaces them. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: which IPO is actually stronger and at what price. Google raising $80B in equity (not debt) with Berkshire Hathaway coming in. Cognition at $26B and the AI coding land grab. —— 00:36 - [ tech news and vc ] 01:52 - Big 3 Race to Go Public 🏁 04:15 - Google $85B Equity Raise 💰 22:48 - SaaSpocalypse Over? 🫨 29:46 - AI-coding Cognition Raises $1B 💸 32:32 - Databricks Past $134B & Revolut Past $100B 🚀 40:01 - [ intvw: CJ Gustafson, recovering tech CFO ] 44:32 - Raising $1B in 18 Months 💸 46:16 - SaaS Multiples: From 20x to 4x and the Road Back 📉 1:17:00 - Stay Private, Get to $1B ARR Before You IPO 🏰 1:20:26 - [ val corner: Aman grades SpaceX IPO ] 1:25:12 – What happens to stock price next 6 months 🤔 1:29:45 – Who made the most money 🤑 —— [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ cj gustafson = https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/ | https://x.com/cjgustafson ] [ run the numbers podcast https://www.youtube.com/@RuntheNumberswithCJ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Trading Places is the only VC secondary podcast on the internet. Hosted by Dave McClure and Aman Verjee of Practical Venture Capital. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private markets, AI company valuations, and the deals most investors never see coming. #spacex #spacexipo #spacexstock #secondaries #venturecapital

I Read the 308-Page SpaceX S-1 So You Don’t Have To

Aman read all 308 pages of the SpaceX S-1 so you don't have to. This week we break down every major number, surprise, and buried Easter egg in the filing — plus the biggest IPO week in recent memory across the AI holy trinity. SpaceX is pricing around June 12 and could open at a $2T+ valuation. We walk through all three business segments (Connectivity, Space, AI), the $28.5 trillion TAM claim, Elon's compensation plan that pays out $583B if he colonizes Mars, the unusual staggered lock-up structure, and the two breadcrumbs in the S-1 that suggest a SpaceX-Tesla merger could be coming. We also cover Anthropic's monster quarter ($10.9B in Q2 revenue, profitable, raising at $900B), OpenAI rushing to beat them to IPO after winning the Musk lawsuit, NVIDIA's $81B print growing 85% YoY, Mercury's $200M Series D at $5.2B, the US government taking equity stakes in quantum companies, and Nasdaq Private Markets suing Hiive over secondary market plumbing. A lot happened this week. 00:43 - [ tech news and vc ] 08:04 - Anthropic profitable, $900B looks cheap 🤯 13:38 - OpenAI rushes to IPO after courtroom win 🏃‍♂️‍➡️ 17:53 - NVIDIA $82B print $80B buyback 💰🫲 22:20 - Mercury $200M Series D @ $5.2B 🏦 25:35 - US Govt = Quantum VC ⚛️ 29:05 - NPM sues Hiive over 2ndry plumbing 🪠 30:58 - [ val corner: 308 page SpaceX S-1 ] 31:06 - SpaceX S-1 highlights 📸🔦 35:56 - $28T TAM includes Martians 🌎🌍🌏🌖✨ 37:00 - 3 core biz units: Connectivity, Space, AI 3️⃣ 47:05 - SpaceX-Tesla merger? 🤔 50:10 - board members revealed 👤 53:48 - unusual staggered lock-up period 🔐 1:01:00 - Dave sings a whole new Mars 🎶 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #spacexs1 #spacexipo #spacex #secondaries #venturecapital

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$900B Anthropic, SpaceX IPO Date, and the SPV Wild West w/ Clara Vydyanath | Trading Places Pod EP35

IPO season is here — and private markets are breaking at the seams. This week on Trading Places: Cerebras just had one of the best IPOs in years, pricing way above range and popping 68% on day one. SpaceX is targeting June 12th for its Nasdaq listing — and the prospectus drops next week. Anthropic raised $30B at a $900B valuation (up from ~$350B just three months ago) — and then told SPV operators to back off. And Anduril closed a $5B round at $61B, doubling its valuation in under a year. Then Dave and Aman sit down with Clara Vydyanath, a secondaries veteran who's spent eight years at Forge and Hiive, to break down what's actually happening in the SPV market — who's legit, who's a scammer, and what CFOs should be doing right now. Plus: retail VC part two, where Aman pits AngelList's USVC (Naval Ravikant + Ankur Nagpal) against Cathie Wood's Ark Ventures. One of them has a track record problem. Timestamps: cold open [ tech news and vc ] 00:53 - Warsh confirmed as new Fed chair 🪑 03:32 - Hormuz "you shall not pass" 🚢🧙‍♂️ 07:05 - Cerebras blockbuster IPO 📈 12:28 - SpaceX IPO date around June 12 🚀 15:56 - Anthropic raises $30B @ $900B valuation 💰 28:30 - Anduril closes $5B @ $61B 🛫 30:07 - [ intvw: Clara Vydyanath, 2ndry advisor ] What she learned at Hiive & Forge 🧠 33:52 - SPVs and Anthropic ✋ 39:43 - What will happen after IPO summer 🔮 44:20 - Wild West of 2ndries is only beginning 🤠 46:00 - CFOs tender offer playbook 📕 58:50 - [ val corner: retail VC part 2 ] Closed end funds: AngelList & Ark Invest 📝 1:00:33 - AngelList USVC portfolio breakdown 😇 1:02:35 - ARKK Ventures Ark Invest portfolio breakdown 🌈 1:05:10 - Portfolio strategy and fees faceoff 🥊 1:06:00 - Ankur Nagpal vs Cathie Wood 🤺 1:10:10 - second takes 😂 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ clara vydyanath = https://www.linkedin.com/in/clara-vydyanath-cfa-cpa-14287316/ | https://x.com/ClaraVydyanath ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #SpaceX #ClaraVydyanath #davemcclure #SpaceXIPO

Anthropic's $44B Revenue Run Rate, SpaceX's $75B IPO Problem, and the Retail VC Trap | Ep 34

Anthropic is now reportedly running at a $44B ARR pace, secondary markets are valuing it north of $1T, and demand is turning into full-scale FOMO. This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down: 00:00 — cold open 00:39 — [ tech and vc news ] 01:53 — Markets ATH during Iran war 💥 06:45 — SpaceX + Anthropic $4B deal 🤝 10:51 — New NASDAQ rules benefit SpaceX 🔔 15:21 — Anthropic raising $50B @ $900B, ARR accelerating 📈 18:20 — Sam and Elon courtroom drama 🍿 23:21 — Cerebras IPO 20x oversubscribed 🥊 25:14 — SaaS-pocalypse continues ⛈️📉 27:47 — [ valuation corner: retail VC part 1 ] Non-accredited investors want private stock 🙏 29:11 — Robinhood Ventures w/ Sarah Pinto & Vlad Tenev 1️⃣ 30:15 — Fundrise w/ Ben Miller 2️⃣ 33:00 — D/XYZ w/ Soheil Prasad 3️⃣ 36:39 — Which would Dave pick? 🤔 41:35 — [ VC secondary 101 w/ dave mcclure ] What is secondary? 🌈 43:03 — Size of the market 📈 44:53 — Why people buy/sell 🤷‍♂️ 47:41 — What are Secret Stallions 🐴 48:45 — Three deal strategies 🧠 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching #tradingplacespodcast #secondary101 #vcsecondary #davemcclure #anthropicstock

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Anthropic at $900B, OpenAI Slipping | Sacra & Augment Power 20 Private Companies | Cohere Valuation | Ep 33

Anthropic is accelerating at a pace the tech world has never seen. In Episode 33 of Trading Places, Dave McClure, Aman Verjee, Marcelo Ballvé (Sacra), and Adam Crawley (Augment) break down the AI valuation frenzy, OpenAI’s growing pressure, hyperscaler spending, Cohere’s international AI strategy, and whether SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation has completely detached from fundamentals. Timestamps: [ tech and vc news ] 00:53 – Iran hits markets 💥 05:00 – Hyperscalers $700B AI CapEx 💸 12:31 – Anthropic raises $50B at $900B+ 🚀 13:51 – Musk vs Altman courthouse battle 🥊 18:22 – OpenAI eyes 2027 IPO 👀 21:35 – Cerebras IPO imminent 🏁 23:18 – Founders Fund $6B with 25% GP commit 😮 25:41 – Sierra raises $950M at $15.8B 🚀 29:16 – GameStop bids $56B for eBay 💰 31:39 – [ intvw: Marcelo Ballve @ SACRA + Adam Crawley @ Augment ] 33:16 – Why Anthropic beat OpenAI 🏆 35:35 – Defense tech crashes the top 20 🛡️ 41:06 – SpaceX at $2T — vibes or fundamentals? 🚀 47:35 – Most stretched valuation on the list 😬 54:51 – Retail VC fund trap 👎 1:02:24 – AGI in 18 months? 🤖 1:04:23 – [ valuation corner: Cohere @ $7B ] 1:05:40 – Canadian roots and team 🇨🇦 1:09:45 – Aleph Alpha German acquisition 🇩🇪 1:10:01 – The anti-US & anti-China play 🙅‍♂️ 1:13:08 – second takes 😂 [ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ adam crawley = https://www.linkedin.com/in/adam-crawley-b2146753/ | https://x.com/adamcrawley1 ] [ augment = https://augment.market/ ] [ marcelo ballvé = https://www.linkedin.com/in/marceloballve/ | https://x.com/ballve ] [ sacra = http://sacra.com/ ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Thank you for watching **Please note: Inclusion in the Augment Power 20 does not predict future performance and should not be considered investment advice. For informational purposes only. Augment Markets, Inc. is a technology company offering software and data services with securities-related services offered through its wholly-owned but separately managed subsidiary Augment Capital, LLC, Member of FINRA/ SIPC. Read our full disclosure statement here. #tradingplacespodcast #sacra #augmentmarkets #davemcclure #cohere

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Anthropic Hits $1T, OpenAI Struggling, Elon Reloads with $60B Cursor Deal | Trading Places Podcast E32

Anthropic just crossed a $1 trillion valuation… and may have officially passed OpenAI. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is making moves—SpaceX is partnering with (and possibly acquiring) Cursor in a $60B deal, while OpenAI races to stay competitive with new releases like GPT-5.5 and Images 2.0. This week on Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down one of the wildest weeks in AI, venture capital, and secondary markets: — The Fed shakeup and what it means for interest rates — Iran war tensions and global market implications — Anthropic’s meteoric rise past OpenAI — SpaceX’s massive AI bet with Cursor — OpenAI’s latest product push — AngelList opening venture capital to retail investors — The rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Plus: a deep dive into Cursor—the fastest-growing SaaS company ever—and why SpaceX wants it. 00:00 – cold open [ tech and vc news ] 01:22 – Warsh fed chair moves Up 🪑 03:52 – Iran war ends when 🤔 06:15 – Anthropic $1T valuation 💰 08:10 – Cursor & SpaceX engage 👰‍♀️ 14:21 – OpenAI launches GPT 5.5 + images 2.0 🚂 17:54 – AngelList launches USVC 💸 25:11 – Polymarket & Kalshi double down 🎲 29:25 – [ valuation corner: Cursor @ $50B ] what is Cursor 🤖 31:24 – CEO & MIT team 👥 33:12 – Why SpaceX wants Cursor & vice versa 💍💒 38:23 – early investors a16z + Thrive 🤑 39:56 – Sam Bankman-Fried almost won big 🙅‍♂️ [ spv: Equitybee ] 44:27 – why we invested in Equitybee 🐝 46:15 – how you can join the SPV 👍 46:53 – spinal cap debut 🎶 [ links: ] [ equitybee SPV invest = https://practicalvc.com/eb ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/ | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] #cursorspacex #spacexcursor #venturecapital #secondarymarkets #secondaries

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SpaceX, Saronic, and the New Era of Defense Tech Investing | Trading Places Podcast Ep31

Markets hit all-time highs in 11 trading days. Someone shorted oil 20 minutes before Trump spoke. SpaceX wants to raise $75B at a $2T valuation. And an autonomous naval defense startup just hit a $9.25B valuation — and almost no one's talking about it. Dave and Aman break down the biggest stories in venture and tech: the OpenAI executive exodus, why Stripe and Databricks still won't IPO, the continuation vehicle boom reshaping VC fund structures, and a deep valuation dive on Saronic — the defense tech company building autonomous warships for the US Navy. Timestamps: 00:00 — Cold open 00:36 — Tech & VC news 01:56 — OpenAI C-suite exodus 💨 05:52 — Markets ATH despite Iran War 🚀 11:56 — How to price the SpaceX IPO 🤔 19:53 — Cerebras IPO is greenlit 🟢 21:43 — VC top 15 mega raise 💰 25:48 — Iconiq: celebrity wealth advisor to the stars 📸 27:27 — Stripe, Databricks, Canva IPO mirage 👻 30:15 — Continuation vehicle boom 🚖 33:26 — Valuation Corner: Saronic @ $9.25B 🛳 41:44 — Second takes [ links: ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee/ | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] #VentureCapital #SpaceXIPO #StartupValuation #TechInvesting #Saronic

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