Trade with Conviction

Episode 112: A diesel ban looms. HOGO reacts. Freight markets in limbo.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, June Goh and Michael Ryan unpack the potential US diesel export ban, the Saudi pipeline attack and Russian refinery strikes reshaping crude flows. June covers the diesel, gasoline and crude fallout if the ban lands, while Michael maps the freight rush already underway on TC14 and VLCCs. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters: (00:31) Trump's diesel ban threat: the backdrop: Trump backs a full or partial US diesel export ban; midterms, low stocks and Hormuz disruption drive the panic. (03:09) Russia strikes and Saudi's pipeline scramble: Ukrainian drones knock out Russian refineries as Aramco reroutes 14 million barrels after an Iraq pipeline attack. (09:51) HOGO whiplash and the diesel ban math: October Hogo swaps swing violently as June maps the price path if a 90 day export ban hits. (13:49) Freight scramble: TC14, MRs and the LR2 dirty trade: Michael on the rush to fix diesel cargoes, TC14 risk, and MRs turning dirty if US exports stop. (22:14) Fuel oil, refining margins and China's holiday lull: June and Hoa on high sulfur fuel support, razor thin refining margins and China's Golden Week pullback. (29:34) Gasoline's own diesel story: ARA undercuts the Gulf Coast, TC2 rallies and East-West Q4/Q1 spreads look primed for a repeat.

Episode 111: Saudi's pipeline is down. Every barrel funnels back through Hormuz.

Felipe Elink-Schuurman, Jay Maroo, Aaron Kildow and James Noel-Beswick break down the Petroline pipeline strike forcing Saudi crude back through Hormuz, freight rates hitting record highs, and diesel cracks near $100/bbl. The real constraint now is products, not crude, with no clear sign of demand destruction. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters: (01:40) Petroline strike and the Hormuz squeeze: Saudi's Yanbu pipeline takes a direct hit, Houthis seize Mocha, and barrels are forced back through Hormuz. (06:25) Crude: Iraq's discount and Saudi's pincer: Iraq sells at steep discounts to move barrels via ADNOC as Saudi crude gets squeezed on every side. (18:40) Freight: the Hormuz premium blows out: Rastanura to Ningbo nears $1 million a day as owners charge up to $500k extra to transit Hormuz. (34:25) Fuel oil: Saudi's feedstock problem: Lost Red Sea refining capacity tightens hi-5 further, with LSFO diverted into conversion units instead of blending. (38:53) Diesel: record cracks, closed arbs: Gasoil cracks near $100/bbl and Asian spreads hit decade highs, yet most European and Asian arbs stay shut. (47:29) Gasoline and the missing demand destruction: Every signal says sell, but nobody's finding the demand destruction that should be capping this rally.

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Episode 110: Houthis seize Mocha. Brent breaks $100. What now?

James Noel-Beswick hosts Nikolas Plonski and Jorge Molinero as Iran-US escalation, Houthi attacks on Mokka and Russian refinery strikes push Brent through $100. They cover record US diesel margins, a widening TI-Brent, gasoline strength in Singapore, an LPG price spike, and a split CPP freight market. Try Leonidas AI: https://www.spartacommodities.com/leonidas/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=leonidas_ai_launch_2026q3 Chapters: (00:42) Headlines: Iran, Hormuz and the road to $100 Brent Tanker strikes, Houthi advances and a widening danger zone push Brent through the century mark in eight sessions. (06:16) Crude: WAF and South America fill the Hormuz gap WAF, Brazilian and Argentinian grades price into Asia as AG flows shrink; trade calls short WTI-Brent, long Q1 Dubai miles. (09:52) US products: distillate and gasoline hit record highs Managed money net length in RBOB and heating oil reaches multi-year highs as US retail diesel prints an all-time high. (19:10) Middle distillates: Singapore diesel near records, jet stays bearish European and Singapore diesel cracks surge on Russian outages while jet regrades slip as aviation demand fades. (22:34) Gasoline and naphtha: record East-West and an LPG shock Singapore 92 rallies, naphtha East-West hits a seasonal record and Aramco's OSP hike sends LPG and pet-chem margins swinging. (30:15) Freight: a split CPP market and tight VLCCs East of Suez tonnage runs 50% below average while the US Gulf list balloons; VLCC and TD20 markets stay bullish.

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Episode 109: Kirishi's hit, Hormuz is live again: diesel has nowhere left to hide

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Abhishek Kumar, Michael Ryan and Jay Maroo cover the Iran-US escalation and Kirishi refinery strike, then break down a diesel market pulling barrels from Singapore to Houston, a gasoline barge spike to $2.90, TC14 freight jumping 45 points, and three fresh crude trade ideas. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:39) Geopolitics: Iran strikes back, Russia's refineries burn US hits Iran, Iran strikes Saudi VLCCs, Kirishi refinery shut, Russia now imports diesel, gasoline and jet. (04:55) Middle distillates: Rotterdam pulls barrels from everywhere Diesel ARBs open from Yanbu to Singapore, a rare Korean MR heads to Rotterdam as Europe scrambles. (17:25) Jet and freight: TC14 jumps 45 points in a day Jet underperforms diesel on rising Asian exports while owners chase the diesel ARB, spiking US Gulf freight. (19:46) Gasoline: barges spike to 290, Houston flips cheapest European barges surge after a shaky start, Houston beats Singapore to West Coast Mexico for the first time. (35:00) Crude and trade ideas: Mars over WTI, Dubai backwardation Dubai tightness signals supply risk, not demand, Jay's three trades bet on east-west and sweet-sour spreads.

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Episode 108: Iran and Oman talk peace. A tanker gets hit anyway.

Jay Maroo hosts Aaron Kildow and Nikolas Plonski as Hormuz de-escalation talk collides with a fresh tanker strike. Aaron unpacks the US SPR's final barrels and a collapsing TI-Brent spread, while Nikolas breaks down gasoline RINs volatility and a blown-out diesel east-west spread. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Geopolitics: Hormuz thaw meets sanctions and a tanker strike Oman-Iran deal signals de-escalation but OFAC sanctions widen and a Kuwaiti tanker gets struck. (05:10) US crude: SPR nearly dry, wrong barrels at the wrong time Only 9-10 million SPR barrels remain, mostly sweet, just as diesel season needs sour crude. (12:36) Hormuz hypothetical: what a reopening does to market share Japan and Korea's shift to US crude signals a lasting market share battle if Hormuz reopens. (18:23) Fuel oil and gasoline: feedstock squeeze, RINs whipsaw Venezuelan barrels weigh on Atlantic HSFO while EPA's RIN waiver rumours rattle the gasoline TAR. (28:14) Diesel's east-west spread blows out to minus $90 Chinese buying may be behind the widest east-west diesel spread on record, hinting at a demand shift.

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Episode 107: Diesel cracks blow past 100$. Dirty freight surging.

Felipe Elink Schuurman is joined by James Noel-Beswick and Michael Ryan as Trump threatens Oman and squeezes Iran's UAE-run cash flows. Russian refinery strikes cut runs to a 24-year low, driving diesel cracks past $100 a barrel, while European freight rates collapse to six-month lows. Chapters: (01:28) Hormuz standoff and Trump's threats to Oman Trump threatens crushing sanctions and to bomb Oman as Iran's crude flows keep diversifying away from the strait. (07:27) Crude freight: Suezmax and VLCC rates skyrocket Suezmax and VLCC rates surge as owners chase Red Sea and India demand, squeezing Atlantic tonnage. (09:12) Russia's refinery crisis and diesel's record breakout Drone strikes cut Russian runs to a 24-year low as diesel cracks and spreads hit record highs. (14:02) Diesel flows: Latin America pulls barrels, Europe freight collapses US diesel barrels head to Brazil replacing lost Russian supply, while European MR freight hits six-month lows. (24:02) Gasoline and naphtha: all-time highs meet a pause TAA arb collapses and TC2 freight halves as gasoline touches record cracks and naphtha arbs stay shut. (31:02) Macro: dollar weakness fuels the commodity hedge trade A six-month dollar low points to macro funds buying commodities as an inflation and currency hedge.

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Episode 106: Iran goes on the offensive. ADNOC's great milk run keeps flowing.

June Goh hosts this week with guest Jay Maroo, as Iran hardens its military stance and Hormuz risk lingers. They cover IEA and OPEC's diverging demand calls, ADNOC's transponder-dark shuttle tankers beating the blockade, a stubbornly wide Brent-Dubai EFS, and a tightening Atlantic diesel market. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:42) Hormuz and Russia: sanctions escalate Two vessel attacks near Hormuz, Iran's military turns hawkish, and a Senate bill threatens 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers. (04:20) IEA vs OPEC: the demand gap IEA turns more bearish on demand while OPEC stays positive, a 2.2 million barrel a day gap. (08:29) The great milk run: ADNOC beats the blockade ADNOC's dark shuttle tankers push UAE output above pre-war levels while Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi stay shut in. (11:20) Fuel oil and crude: the tightening squeeze Singapore fuel oil stays trapped in a tightening loop, ADNOC's tender drops a grade, and WAF premiums look shaky. (17:04) Middle distillates: refinery outages bite Refinery outages tighten Atlantic diesel further, yet Sikka's jet arb into Europe stays wide open. (21:22) Light ends: EBOB strength spreads west Low Rhine water lifts EBOB, US Gulf gasoline exports swell, and Singapore mogas turns bullish for September.

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Episode 105: Hormuz flips again and gasoline cracks get smashed

June Goh hosts Neil Crosby and Abhishek Kumar as Hormuz talks flip on and off again, smashing gasoline cracks. They cover Iranian tanker pileups, China's bigger export quotas, Russian diesel exemptions, Murban futures' wind-down, and a bullish fuel oil case into September. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:43) Hormuz headlines: the on-off deal traders can't trade Iranian tankers pile up, Houthis strike again, and the binary Hormuz signal looks set to drag past the midterms. (08:21) EIA and China's quota puzzle US crude exports crash from 5.5m to 3.5m b/d as China lifts August export quotas, but quotas aren't shipments. (15:00) Gasoline cracks get smashed EBOB and RBOB spreads unwind hard on fading Hormuz risk and stabilising US stocks. Still no clean trade here. (22:21) Distillates and jet split east and west Asian gas oil rally stalls as China supply returns, while European diesel stays deep in deficit on Russian export curbs. (29:46) Crude quickfire: Murban futures die, Aramco cuts OSPs Ice Murban winds down, Aramco trims Arab Light 50 cents, and West African crude wins on Hormuz avoidance. (33:17)* Fuel oil: the Cape reroute bites Thirty extra days round the Cape means lower runs and less residue, a bullish setup for 0.5% sulfur into September.

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Episode 104: Brent whipsaws and USGC 3:2:1 margins explode. The diesel crisis behind it

June Goh hosts Abhishek Kumar and Jorge Molinero as Brent swings from $100 to $85 to $93 in a week. They cover Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Suez rerouting costs, a tightening diesel market, and diverging crude premiums across Hormuz and Red Sea choke points. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=marketoutlook_hub&utm_content=podcast Chapters: (00:35) Oil's Wild Week: Houthi Attacks and the Yanbu Reroute Brent swung from $100 to $85 to $93 in days. Abhishek breaks down Jizan refinery strikes and Suez rerouting costs. (07:22) Rhine Crisis and Record-Tight US Barrels Kaub gauge nears critical levels as US crude and gasoline stocks hit multi-year lows despite record refinery runs. (09:42) Gasoline and Naphtha: East Beats West East-West spread flips as European E10 blending reopens and the TAR arb into PAD1 looks set to widen. (14:10) Diesel Squeeze and the Freight Spike Behind It TC14 rates jump on tonne mile demand as Jazan's outage and a possible Russian export ban extension tighten Europe further. (20:55) Crude Flows Rewrite Around Two Choke Points Murban and Melbourne premiums diverge as Asian refiners route around both Hormuz and the Red Sea. (24:15) Fuel Oil: HSFO Eases, VLSFO Stays Tight August HSFO cracks pull back from highs while VLSFO cracks sit near $23 on limited medium crude supply.

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Episode 103: The Houthis hit Yanbu. Where does crude go now?

Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels loading at Yanbu leave seven million barrels of crude searching for a route. Felipe Elink Schuurman, James Noel-Beswick and Jay Maroo on Suezmax freight, why diesel still looks undervalued, and the crude spreads with room to run. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox. Chapters: (01:11) Risk stacks up: Houthis, Yanbu and CPC — Attacks on Saudi vessels at Yanbu and 1.5m b/d of Kazakh crude offline stack the risk higher. (03:48) Seven million barrels with nowhere to go — Yanbu crude needs a new route north via Suez or around the Cape. Costlier, slower, tighter. (08:44) Diesel's worst-case setup is building — Jody confirms weak EU demand; diesel still looks undervalued with Russia, Mideast and Yanbu supply all at risk. (19:01) Singapore rips, Europe waits — Singapore spreads break every moving average; Gulf Coast dominates as Europe eyes September arbs. (23:34) The bull case for Brent spreads — Brent Dubai and CPC keep the long alive, but the cleaner trade sits in freight. (27:27) Freight: the trade with conviction — Suezmax TD20 and TD3C as Yanbu and Houthi inefficiencies ripple through shipping.

Episode 102: The ceasefire is dead. Why is crude still asleep?

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and Jay Maroo on the collapsed Iran ceasefire, Brent's jump from 72 to 85, and the market fatigue no one's pricing. Diesel cracks and gasoline spreads hit records while crude stays quiet, with the Russian diesel ban now double the Hormuz problem. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=audio&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters (01:41) The ceasefire is dead, and the market is tired MOU collapse, escalation back, Brent at 85, but fatigue means no one wants to price the risk. (12:16) Diesel: the Russian ban that dwarfs Hormuz Russian diesel exports near 1m bpd gone, cracks and spreads bullish, Hogo the solver into Europe. (21:52) Crude: enough for now, bullish later Asians scramble for WTI and SPR barrels, Europe long crude, WTI-Brent widens, Brent bullish eventually. (29:49) Gasoline: cracks at ten-year highs Spreads and cracks at records, New York arbs shut for August, Singapore spreads the trade to watch.

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Episode 101: Russia bans diesel, Hormuz reignites. What breaks first?

June Goh hosts her first episode with Abhishek Kumar as the US-Iran ceasefire cracks and Hormuz transits collapse to near zero. They cover Brent flipping back to backwardation, Russia's diesel export ban, China's product relaxation, European cracks near 60, the ADNOC tender, and a short HOGO trade idea. Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://www.spartacommodities.com/market-outlook-subscribe/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast Chapters: (01:45) Hormuz reignites and the ceasefire cracks Vessels attacked, US revokes Iranian oil license, transits near zero. Trump says the truce is effectively over. (03:13) Spreads, OPEC+ and depleted inventories Brent flips to backwardation, OPEC+ adds another August barrel, global stocks still down over 1 billion barrels. (06:21) Can China save the product market? Beijing clears 1.3 million tons of product exports, but volumes skew to gasoline and jet, not diesel. (08:07) Russia's diesel ban and refinery 101 Drone strikes force a Russian export ban. June breaks down which units get hit and what it signals. (12:08) Crude: the ADNOC tender and the mini glut Chinese teapots buy Upper Zakum, Dubai returns to backwardation, how you can be short crude yet see a glut. (15:01) Distillates, jet and freight European cracks surge past 60, a short HOGO idea, jet becomes a diesel story, Michael Ryan's de-escalation freight case.

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Episode 100: The great divergence: crude collapses while products rally

Felipe Elink Schuurman and research heads Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick, and Jorge Molinero mark episode 100 analyzing crude's peak weakness versus 10-year-high distillate rallies. Russia's refinery crisis, Hormuz rebalancing, and when stock replenishment becomes the real floor signal. Chapters: **(01:47) Hormuz reopens, but the real question is what comes next** 10-15 million barrels per day flowing out, but Iran maximizing exports while US refills reserves. **(08:46) Russia's refining collapse is reshaping global product markets** Runs halved from 6M to 3M bpd. Ukraine's drone campaign crippling refineries. Fuel imports imminent. **(12:50) Distillates at 10-year highs: Russian exports collapsing, US yields maxed** Global diesel and jet spreads outdoing 2022. East-West spreads historic. Products decoupling from crude. **(17:25) Gasoline: The trend is your friend, but watch blending margins** RBOB and EBOB spreads rally to $51 on stock depletion. Arbs from ARA still pointing West. **(27:20) Crude at peak weakness: Why the TI Brent short thesis works now** Paper collapsed, logs battered, all solutions materialized. Neil on why prices can only rise from here.

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Episode 99: Brent flips to contango. Is the crude crisis over?

Neil Crosby, June Goh and Abhishek Kumar unpack Brent's shock flip into contango as Hormuz reopens and AG crude floods back. Dubai swaps at minus one, the "Asian crude buffet," a potential Russian diesel ban, and why jet looks weaker than diesel into summer. Chapters: (01:23) Brent flips to contango: the crude sell-off Brent and Dubai flip into contango as Hormuz reopens. Traders extrapolate supply forward, but is it fair value? (09:15) The Asian crude buffet Dubai swaps at minus one, Murban dives $10, Iranian waiver lands. Why nobody wants the risk yet. (16:57) OPEC, UAE and refinery runs UAE back to max, China independents at a nine-year low. How fast does AG supply return? (20:40) Distillates and the Russian diesel ban Diesel off panic pricing but not loose. Abhishek leans bearish jet and HOGO as flows normalize. (30:13) Gasoline and naphtha Houston still tightest globally, but US peak tightness looks behind us. Weak naphtha caps any gasoline upside.

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Episode 98: Iran signs, crude breaks $80, but we're now oversold

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby and James Noel-Beswick dig into the signed Iran-US MOU and a market pricing rapid de-escalation. Crude under $80, Dubai swaps in contango, an oversold barrel. They weigh whether Hormuz reopens cleanly or shipping delays keep oil short for longer. Chapters: (00:31) The Iran MOU: signed, but what was signed? A $300bn package, a 60-day Hormuz waiver and a deal that looks better for Iran than the US. (06:31) Scenarios: oversold now, but is it real? Dubai swaps in contango, longs washed out. Neil maps the path from here over the next six weeks. (15:43) Distillates: cracks cool, US stocks stay perilous Gas oil spreads sell off hard, but heating oil holds as PADD diesel stocks signal slowing US exports. (18:57) Gasoline: the US bounce and Europe's supply wall RBOB spreads firm as arbs open to New York, while Dangote and Northwest Europe cap the upside. (23:32) Crude: heavy everywhere except the US AG and Brent diffs plummet, US tightens then peaks, and China is the swing nobody can call. (29:03) Fuel oil: 0.5 looks oversold East-west back below $40/ton at pre-war levels, with arbs shut and Dangote barely breaking even.

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Episode 97: Hormuz transits accelerate but risk is high.

Neil Crosby hosts with Michael Ryan and June Goh. Growing Hormuz transits, a record 262 VLCC orders, Atlantic tonnage oversupply, softening Dubai premiums, and why Singapore VLSFO blend margins are building a bullish case into Q3. Chapters: (00:48) Atlantic freight: the tonnage trap Ships flooding the Atlantic from all segments as Persian Gulf flows shrink, driving wild rate swings. (04:47) Iran, Hormuz and US strategy US-Iran direct conflict resumes; Hormuz transits quietly growing as Iran's oil influence fades. (07:26) Demand data and inventory watch Indian and EU demand mixed; Cushing near its 20 million barrel floor; VLSFO stocks at zero in Fujairah. (12:09) Record VLCC orders: a long-term warning 262 VLCCs on order, surpassing the 2008 peak. The bearish signal shipowners cannot ignore. (19:19) PG crude: trickle turns to stream ADNOC tenders 14 million barrels; Dubai premiums soften; China stays out of WAF and PG markets. (26:59) Products quickfire: distillates, gasoline, fuel oil Singapore regrade strengthens; VLSFO east-west collapses to $55/ton; Botany Bay gasoline arb reopens.

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Episode 96: Peace deal merry-go-round continues

Felipe Elink Schuurman hosts Neil Crosby and first-time guest Jay Maroo. The episode covers the stalled US-Iran peace process, Hormuz transit at 10% of pre-crisis levels, Indian and Chinese product exports collapsing, Cushing approaching its 20 million barrel floor, and why crude, distillates, and gasoline all look too cheap. Chapters: (01:15) Sleepwalking into the inventory crisis Lebanon complicates the Iran deal; Brent under $100 despite accelerating US commercial crude draws. (06:00) Hormuz: 10% of pre-crisis flows Jay Maroo: even a peace deal won't reopen flows quickly — Hormuz is a runway, not a field. (10:29) India, Russia, China: the supply rescue fails Indian exports at 4-year lows, Russian runs collapsing, Chinese product exports disappoint May expectations. (14:39) Distillates: gas oil rallies, heating oil spreads lag Kuwait airport attack lifts sentiment; heating oil spreads haven't followed — and may still be the trade. (20:28) Crude: Cushing at 22 million barrels Commercial draws hit 1 mbd last week; physical diffs in Europe cooling from unexpected crude inflows. (26:57) Gasoline: at five-year mean, everything looks cheap ARA cheapest into LatAm; demand destruction estimates rising to 5-6 mbd globally.

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Episode 95: Risk-off and short-term solvers, but it won't last.

Neil Crosby and June Goh cut through the noise on US-Iran deal speculation, unpacking why flat price is off, what 7 million bpd of Chinese crude imports means for diesel east-west dynamics, and why Sing FOGO holds up when bunker demand proves more inelastic than diesel. 00:00 – Hormuz risk and deal pricing Why the market is pricing an imminent deal, and why the evidence points the other way. 03:03 – China's crude import collapse May imports potentially at 7 million bpd — what that means for Asian balances and global supply. 09:32 – Dubai window and physical crude Dubai in the doldrums with almost no convergences; sellers stuck with cargo bought at higher levels. 09:53 – WTI, TI-Brent, and US market tightening Commercial draws accelerating, WCS diffs rising, MEH diff tightening — why TI-Brent could move further. 12:16 – Gasoline: RBOB, TA spreads, and Latam Summer arb mechanics, TC2 tonnage overhang, and the ARA vs Houston competitive dynamic. 17:09 – Distillates, east-west, and fuel oil China's crude release reshapes diesel E/W; Sing FOGO positive bias as bunker demand holds more inelastic than diesel.

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Episode 94: The largest stock draw in history. Oil barely moved.

Felipe Elink Schuurman, June Goh, and new analyst Abhishek Kumar cover a record 19.5mb stock draw that barely moved prices, the Russia OFAC waiver with no new barrels, India's supply strategy, Asia's group buying trend, and trade views across distillates, jet, fuel oil, and gasoline. Chapters: (01:02) Trump backs down and vessels start moving June on the Iran strike cancellation, ICE Brent's fall, and the first VLCCs exiting the Strait. (02:35) Record 19.5mb stock draw. The market barely reacted. June on the historic combined crude and product draw and why flat price still fell to $105/bbl. (07:35) Russia waivers and UK exemptions: what they actually mean The OFAC extension adds no new barrels. The UK diesel/jet waiver is a sign of desperation, not relief. (12:45 ) India in focus: supply strategy, Russia dependency, and SPR plans Abhishek on India's pump price hike, Modi's demand appeals, and long-term moves to expand strategic reserves. (19:24) Physical crude: Asia over-supplied for August June on the prompt overhang, Brent backwardation at $4.50/bbl, and why WAF grades remain undervalued. (23:17) Distillates, jet, and gasoline: trade views Abhishek's case for July ICE gas oil cracks, bearish NWE jet, and June on Singapore 92 near 5-year highs.

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Episode 93: No Iran deal yet. US stocks are draining. What breaks first?

Felipe Elink Schuurman, Neil Crosby, and James Noel-Beswick cover the stalling Iran deal, Karg Island's loading disruption, US diesel and gasoline stocks nearing commercial minimums, growing export ban risk, collapsing Brent differentials, and why the market keeps surprising on timing. Chapters: (01:08) Iran deal stalls and Karg Island goes quiet Neil on why the deal looks dead and what a loading stoppage at Iran's main export terminal signals. (03:13) US product stocks and the export ban risk Diesel and gasoline near commercial minimums. Neil on why a ban could land before June. (06:25) Distillates: jet yields, the regrade, and East West Jet yields near max, the regrade has overshot, and why James is bullish from here. (28:50) Crude: Brent diffs collapse and China goes quiet WAF selling slowly, Chinese imports 3mbd below normal. Neil makes the case for buying Brent diffs. (36:26) Gasoline: ARA turns cheapest, US starts to drain ARA now the cheapest global source, US stocks declining, and why 2015-style summer tightness is back. (40:12) Getting the timing right The team reflects on why fundamentals have been right but timing wrong, and what the real trigger points are.

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