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Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade.
Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success.
No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance.
If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge.
Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience.
🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

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Yesterday · 1 hr 10 min
SI426: The Hard Part Isn't Buying Trend Following ft. Yoav Git
When markets turn against you, the strategy meant to protect your portfolio may be the last to respond. But is that a flaw in trend following, or have investors misunderstood what protection really means? With Niels away, Alan Dunne is joined by Yoav Git to explore the hidden trade-offs behind building a resilient CTA portfolio. From sudden market crashes to prolonged inflationary shocks, they uncover why different strategies respond to crises in fundamentally different ways, and why the timing of those responses can matter as much as the returns themselves. As they examine the role of bonds, commodities and fast versus slow trend following, a deeper question emerges: can you build a portfolio that survives not only the next crisis, but also the long periods of disappointment in between? ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following can be so difficult to stick with 04:26 - November performance and the challenges facing CTAs 08:39 - Three different reasons to include CTAs in a portfolio 11:43 - What convexity actually means for investors 14:59 - The difference between return convexity and exposure convexity 20:02 - Why CTA exposure to bonds and equities behaves differently 26:19 - Where crisis protection really comes from in trend following 32:34 - How to tailor CTA allocations to different portfolio objectives 38:22 - Inflation, commodity trend and the future of AI 47:07 - Stagflation research and the limits of historical data 56:14 - Building a CTA portfolio for alpha or crisis protection 01:06:35 - Why chasing trend-following performance can backfire Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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Wednesday · 1 hr 6 min
TTU154: Why Trend Following Isn't Crash Insurance ft. Philippe Jordan
What if one of the biggest misconceptions about trend following is what investors expect it to do? Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Philippe Jordan, President of CFM, for a conversation that challenges conventional thinking about systematic investing. Drawing on 35 years of experience, Philippe explains why even the most sophisticated models sometimes need human judgment, how AI is transforming the search for alpha, and why diversification matters more than any single strategy. They also explore the limits of scientific approaches to markets, the importance of investment culture, and why trend following’s greatest value may have little to do with protecting investors from the next crash. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Philippe on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Why trend following isn't crash insurance 01:05 - Can investment flows create lasting market edges? 02:33 - Philippe Jordan and the evolution of CFM 08:06 - What scientific models miss during extreme market crises 13:56 - Why CFM moved beyond traditional trend following 16:28 - Scientific rigor and the growing power of technology 20:51 - Why investment culture matters as much as technology 25:05 - How AI agents are transforming quantitative research 28:29 - Balancing model robustness with diversification 33:13 - The case for systematic investing beyond equity returns 42:08 - Alternative markets and the search for genuine diversification 50:48 - Knowing when human judgment should override the models 55:07 - How CFM has reinvented trend following 58:36 - What investors should realistically expect from trend following 01:02:23 - The long-term reality of trend following returns Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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November 7 · 1 hr 4 min
SI425: Passive Investing Is About to Face a Real Test ft. Cem Karsan
What happens when the system holding global markets together begins to reach its breaking point? In the wake of the US midterm elections, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is joined by Cem Karsan for a conversation about the powerful forces converging beneath the surface of the global economy. Mounting debt, rising populism, geopolitical confrontation and the battle for control of the US dollar are creating pressures that Cem believes cannot be contained indefinitely. He lays out a provocative scenario in which a financial crisis becomes the catalyst for a historic transformation of economic policy. As the old rules begin to unravel, the conversation turns to a question every investor must confront: how do you prepare for a world that may look radically different from the one we've known? ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and the limits of passive investing 02:23 - Market developments and early-November CTA performance 05:23 - Volatility strategies, dispersion and pressure on hedge funds 08:45 - What the US midterm elections could mean for markets 12:40 - The four structural pressures threatening the US economy 19:44 - The US dollar, geopolitical power and the future of monetary policy 26:19 - Print money, buy stocks and the case for aggressive intervention 30:49 - Inflation, populism and the economic implications of AI 37:22 - The generational pendulum driving political and economic change 44:46 - Why Cem believes a crisis may be necessary for meaningful change 50:18 - Building resilient portfolios beyond the traditional 60/40 approach 59:59 - Cem's timeline for a potential financial crisis Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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November 4 · 51 min
OI25: What If Lower Volatility Is the Wrong Goal ft. Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin
Moritz Seibert is joined by QuantEdge CEO Suhaimi Zainul-Abidin to explore how one of Singapore’s most successful systematic firms approaches risk, diversification and long-term compounding. Suhaimi explains why QuantEdge deliberately runs at a much higher volatility than most institutional portfolios, how the firm combines hundreds of independent risk premia across equities, bonds, commodities and insurance-linked securities, and why diversification should create room to take more risk rather than simply reduce it. They also discuss capacity, investor lockups, portfolio rebalancing and the lessons QuantEdge learned from surviving both the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID market shock. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Suhaimi on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 03:07 - How QuantEdge grew from $3 million to nearly $8 billion 07:29 - Why QuantEdge doesn’t fit neatly into the CTA bucket 09:10 - How risk premia create returns across markets 11:20 - Systematically investing in insurance-linked securities 15:18 - Building a portfolio from hundreds of independent bets 20:32 - Why QuantEdge targets around 25% volatility 25:24 - Where the firm’s returns have actually come from 27:06 - How the strategy evolved from 50 markets to nearly 300 29:34 - How much capital can QuantEdge realistically manage? 32:46 - Why the firm refuses to dilute its strategy for investors 37:11 - Why long lockups can actually protect investors 46:33 - The toughest periods in QuantEdge’s 20-year history Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 31 · 1 hr 6 min
SI424: Can Your Portfolio Survive the AI Hangover? ft. Alan Dunne
How resilient is your portfolio if stocks and bonds fall together? Alan Dunne joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to examine what stock–bond correlations can conceal and why owning more assets may leave investors exposed to the same risks. They explore how an AI boom could unravel, what that might mean for debt and monetary policy, and how trend following can help portfolios adapt without forecasting the next crisis. The conversation also tackles the patience diversification demands when equities race ahead, and whether greater resilience can improve long-term compounding. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Alan’s radar 15:17 - Trend following performance and manager dispersion 20:27 - The Fed’s new approach and what it means for markets 26:50 - What happens if the AI boom eventually unwinds? 35:26 - Why stock-bond correlation is more complicated than it looks 43:42 - Can trend following help diversify the bond side of 60/40? 46:23 - The economic scenarios that could hurt stocks and bonds together 49:57 - How to diversify without trying to predict the next regime 54:27 - What does portfolio resilience actually mean? 01:00:44 - Can a more resilient portfolio also deliver better returns? Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 28 · 1 hr 4 min
GM109: Why Buffett Finally Went All In on Japan ft. Andrew McDermott
Alan Dunne is joined by Mission Value Partners founder Andrew McDermott to challenge some of the conventional thinking around Japan. Andrew argues that Japan’s supposed “lost decades” look very different when viewed beyond GDP and stock market performance, and that its emphasis on manufacturing, engineering and long-term resilience may now be becoming a major advantage. They discuss the consequences of financialization in the US and Europe, Japan’s role in semiconductors, robotics and AI, and why Warren Buffett’s move into Japanese equities matters. The conversation also explores public debt, domestic capital flows and why Japan could play a much larger role in the global economy ahead. For those who are quick, check out this event featuring Andrew McDermott as well as last weeks guest Jesper Koll: https://mvpnashjapan.up.railway.app/ ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Mission Value Partners on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Andrew’s path into Japan investing 05:05 - Why Andrew thinks Japan’s capitalism works better 11:32 - Manufacturing, industrial policy and the return of real investment 15:10 - Why investors may have misunderstood Japan for decades 19:56 - Is the era of financialization starting to reverse? 24:52 - AI, machine learning and Japan’s hidden advantage 31:11 - Japan versus China and two very different economic models 35:55 - Has Japan really changed or were investors simply wrong? 40:45 - What Warren Buffett saw in Japan 45:19 - Is Japan’s government debt really as dangerous as it looks? 52:40 - What happens if Japanese capital starts coming home? 56:33 - What Japan could look like ten years from now Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 24 · 1 hr 14 min
SI423: Why Trend Following Might Outlast the AI Arms Race ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski explore why the changing structure of global markets may be creating a very different environment for trend followers. They discuss why today’s bond selloff may represent a return to normal rather than an anomaly, how declining safe-haven benefits could reshape government debt, and why geopolitical fragmentation may increase divergence across markets. Mark also examines commodity shortages and the conditions that can produce explosive price moves. Finally, they turn to AI and machine learning, asking whether increasingly similar quantitative models are shortening the life of alpha and why trend following may prove unusually durable in an increasingly crowded investment landscape. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following may be different in the age of machine learning 02:09 - France, rising yields and changing perceptions of safe assets 07:27 - Trend following performance and a changing bond market 16:29 - Why the structure and participants of markets matter 20:26 - Liquidity, capital flows and the plumbing behind financial crises 27:58 - Globalization, capital flows and the role of the dollar 35:33 - Crises, market upheavals and commodity supercycles 37:32 - Why today’s higher bond yields may actually be normal 45:31 - Are Treasuries losing some of their safe-haven advantage? 52:26 - Geoeconomic fragmentation and what it means for trend following 56:51 - Commodity shortages and why prices can suddenly go parabolic 01:02:12 - AI, crowded models and the shrinking half-life of alpha Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 21 · 1 hr 3 min
GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll
Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Jesper on Substack. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan 02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan 04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked 07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity 11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis 13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home? 17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics 22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster 25:46 - The yen, carry trades and the risk of a stronger currency 33:51 - Japan’s push into semiconductors, defense and industrial policy 38:18 - Energy security and Japan’s next major investment challenge 40:31 - Why Japan is taking a different approach to AI 44:18 - Could Japan outperform if the US AI boom slows? 47:16 - What the West can learn from Japan 52:35 - Corporate reform, generational change and consolidation 57:19 - Where Japanese rates could go next 58:16 - The key signals investors should watch from here Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 17 · 1 hr 9 min
SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar 06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers 11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation 17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios 21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly 28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change 31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world 41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection 47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return 52:38 - How investors end up timing liquid alternatives badly 58:12 - How institutions can make it easier to stay invested 01:02:50 - Can packaging trend with other assets solve the problem? Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 14 · 1 hr 10 min
UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann
Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Christian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again 02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime 06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable? 10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble? 17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert 22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy 28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities 38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high? 42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap 45:30 - What extreme dispersion is telling us about the market 52:44 - How to prepare for a market you can’t time 58:20 - Geopolitics, real assets and the changing role of bonds 01:02:20 - Debasement and the risk investors may be underestimating 01:05:54 - Why currency volatility could matter much more Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
- Transcript
October 10 · 1 hr 18 min
SI421: Taking CTAs Mainstream ft. Andrew Beer
How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why portfolios may need a more tactical approach 01:04 - AI, entrepreneurship and the changing world of work 08:07 - Complex systems and why the future is so difficult to predict 09:47 - Trend following performance and what is driving returns 13:59 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio is being questioned 16:20 - The problem with long-term asset allocation assumptions 22:41 - Diversification, market timing and the historical advantage of bonds 27:01 - What 27 years of managed futures data tells us 31:51 - Crisis alpha across the dot-com crash, GFC and 2022 36:08 - Correlation, alpha and the diversification case for CTAs 38:12 - Drawdowns and why tactical strategies can preserve capital 44:55 - Sharpe ratios and the problem of lumpy returns 50:39 - Why choosing the right managed futures manager is so difficult 54:57 - How managed futures can finally grow the pie 01:05:04 - Why the industry needs to stop getting lost in the technical details 01:08:14 - The danger of betting everything on one manager 01:13:02 - Why timing managed futures can make a good strategy look bad Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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October 7 · 1 hr
IL54: Why Smart Investors Keep Making Crazy Decisions ft. Alex Edmans
In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Alex on LinkedIn and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Alex Edmans’ new book The Madness of Markets 02:46 - How football results can move stock markets 07:16 - What Spotify playlists can tell us about investor sentiment 11:28 - Why individual investors may have an advantage over professionals 16:26 - Specialists, generalists and finding your investing edge 21:59 - When benchmarks make active managers too conservative 26:18 - Risk, alpha and the equity premium puzzle 30:07 - Why momentum works and when it crashes 35:35 - Where individual investors can exploit overlooked opportunities 37:48 - How round numbers influence buying and selling decisions 39:54 - The disposition effect and why investors hold onto losers 44:12 - Three practical ways to make better investment decisions 47:20 - Why writing down your investment thesis matters 52:08 - Outsourcing the ugly decisions 55:30 - AI, bubbles and the big market delusion 58:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find the book Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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October 2 · 1 hr 4 min
SI420: The Market Might Be More Fragile Than It Looks ft. Cem Karsan
Alan Dunne is joined by Cem Karsan to examine the forces pushing bond yields higher and why he believes markets are becoming increasingly fragile. Cem argues that refinancing pressures, persistent inflation, declining foreign demand for Treasuries and the enormous capital requirements of the AI boom are creating an unusually unstable backdrop. They discuss the concentration of equity market growth around AI, the relationship between government policy and financial markets, and Cem’s expectation that a Treasury market shock could eventually trigger a forceful policy response. They also explore political risk, market volatility, monetary debasement and why traditional stock and bond portfolios may face a very different environment ahead. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why Cem believes the next V-shaped market move is coming 00:58 - Introduction and what’s on Cem’s radar 03:34 - A strong year for trend following 05:29 - What is driving bond yields higher? 09:09 - Inflation, debt and declining foreign demand for Treasuries 12:53 - Why short-term interest rate expectations have shifted so dramatically 18:01 - Can rising bond yields eventually break the equity market? 19:00 - Why Cem questions the sustainability of AI-driven earnings growth 25:27 - Market concentration and the growing fragility of the system 33:54 - Government intervention and the return of the V-shaped market 37:19 - Cem’s case for a coming Treasury market shock 42:50 - Why the US midterm elections could matter for markets 46:43 - What the options market is pricing for the months ahead 48:27 - Bond volatility and where yields could go next 50:41 - Could the US eventually create a sovereign wealth fund? 54:34 - Inflation, equities and the importance of real returns 01:00:13 - Why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may face a different future Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 30 · 1 hr 6 min
TTU153: Why Investors Keep Getting Trend Following Wrong ft. Patrick Welton
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne are joined by Welton Investment Corporation founder Patrick Welton to explore what four decades in markets have taught him about trading, risk and managing other people’s money. Pat shares lessons from his encounters with Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry before explaining why taking outside capital fundamentally changes a manager’s responsibility. They discuss the real sources of trend following returns, why managers can damage their edge by listening too closely to clients, and whether replication and multi-strategy funds have changed the landscape. They also explore capacity, changing market regimes and why investor behavior may ultimately matter more than finding the perfect strategy. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Find out more about DUNN Capital. Follow Patrick on LinkedIn. Episode Timestamps: Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 26 · 1 hr 5 min
SI419: What Happens When AI Starts Building the Portfolio ft. Nick Baltas
Alan Dunne is joined by Nick Baltas to discuss a strong period for trend following and what the latest research says about adapting systematic strategies to changing markets. They examine whether volatility can help determine how quickly trend models should react, and why Nick remains skeptical of relying on regime triggers with limited statistical evidence. The conversation then turns to agentic AI and a new framework for using specialized AI agents in asset allocation. Nick explores how agents could analyze macro regimes, challenge competing portfolio approaches and help investment committees make decisions faster, while also confronting problems around look-ahead bias, reproducibility and human oversight. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and what’s caught Nick’s attention 01:31 - The extraordinary concentration inside the S&P 500 04:12 - Why bond yields are rising around the world 08:28 - A strong month and year for trend following 12:08 - Why the bond move has happened without a volatility spike 15:12 - Can volatility make trend following more adaptive? 20:43 - What the latest research actually tells us 23:21 - How Nick uses volatility in portfolio construction 25:50 - Can investors identify trend regimes in advance? 27:04 - Why making trend models more complicated may not help 29:30 - V-shaped markets and the problem with regime triggers 32:01 - How agentic AI could reshape asset allocation 44:14 - What actually drives an AI-built portfolio? 50:03 - Why backtesting AI investment models is so difficult 55:05 - Could the same AI framework work for trend following? 58:33 - Using AI to manage competing investment objectives 01:01:22 - When will we see portfolios run by AI agents? Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 23 · 59 min
OI24: Why Power Trading Is 10 Times Crazier Than Crypto ft. Cory Paddock
Moritz Seibert is joined by GBE Energy co-founder Cory Paddock for a look inside the unusual world of proprietary power trading. Cory explains how electricity markets combine weather, physics and economics, and why understanding supply and demand can create opportunities in markets where prices can change dramatically within minutes. They explore the psychology behind taking risk, why a handful of exceptional days can define an entire year, and the lessons Cory learned from his biggest wins and losses. They also discuss GBE’s approach to developing young traders and how AI is accelerating the process of turning raw talent into real trading ability. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Cory on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Knowing when to walk away from a losing trade 01:03 - Introducing Cory Paddock and GBE Energy 04:35 - How US power markets actually work 08:21 - PJM and the changing US electricity mix 11:07 - Why North America effectively has three separate power grids 14:42 - What a power trader actually trades 19:40 - Why electricity trading never really stops 21:48 - Finding an edge through supply, demand and weather 28:13 - Why power markets remain so attractive to traders 30:37 - What “10 times crypto” volatility looks like 33:50 - The four stages of becoming a power trader 36:07 - Conviction, sizing and getting comfortable with being uncomfortable 38:15 - The trades that helped create GBE Energy 40:42 - What a painful losing trade taught Cory 43:16 - Why GBE changed the way it recruits traders 48:57 - What Cory looks for in aspiring traders 50:50 - How quickly can someone learn to trade power? 53:31 - AI, data centers and the future of electricity markets Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 19 · 1 hr 15 min
SI418: Why Markets Are More Alive Than We Think ft. Richard Brennan
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan explore what the science of complex adaptive systems can teach us about markets and trend following. Drawing on research from the Santa Fe Institute, they examine why markets may be better understood as evolving systems shaped by the participants within them rather than machines moving toward equilibrium. They discuss reflexivity, increasing returns and how trends can begin to reinforce themselves, before asking what this means for systematic investors. Along the way, Richard explains why backtests are evidence rather than promises, why taking profits too early can be costly, and why responding to markets may ultimately matter more than predicting them. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why trend following’s edge may have moved rather than disappeared 03:26 - What three years of research revealed about trend following 06:50 - Why big trends and outliers are structural features of markets 11:35 - Trend following performance and what’s moving markets 16:49 - Should trend followers ever take profits early? 21:03 - What the Santa Fe Institute can teach us about markets 25:51 - Why markets are complex adaptive systems 29:46 - Reflexivity and how investors help create market outcomes 35:18 - Why equilibrium may be the wrong way to think about markets 40:22 - Mean reversion, positive feedback and why trends persist 42:55 - Increasing returns and the lessons of VHS versus Betamax 50:01 - How market movements begin to feed on themselves 54:11 - Why trend following emerged inside an artificial stock market 58:20 - How every system eventually gets gamed 01:01:47 - What backtests can and cannot tell us about the future 01:08:31 - How trend followers prepare for a future they cannot predict Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 16 · 1 hr 3 min
IL53: How Bonds Quietly Built the Modern World ft. Robin Wigglesworth
Today we talk with the editor of the Financial Times’ Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth. Robin is the author of A Fabulous Debt - the Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World. He tells the story of the bond market’s beginnings in Venice and how the ability to issue and trade bonds was an essential aspect of its rise to power. Robin explains why historically bond markets and democracy have gone hand-in-hand. Innovations in how bonds are structured and traded also have the ability alter market fundamentals and he explains how this happened with the US junk bond market pioneered by Michael Milken. We talk about likely future innovations and finish with a discussion of current bond market turmoil and the implications for both the Fed and Treasury. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Robin on X and Read his Book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - How junk bonds changed the market 00:56 - Introducing Robin Wigglesworth and A Fabulous Debt 03:39 - Why ignorance can actually help you understand history 07:50 - How Venice accidentally invented the bond market 12:55 - How bonds helped strengthen democracy and accountability 17:31 - How Britain turned bonds into a global reserve asset 24:43 - Why strong bond markets often create stronger countries 28:56 - Could Europe ever create a true Eurobond market? 32:19 - How the modern international bond market was born 39:39 - Michael Milken and the rise of junk bonds 44:21 - How Milken changed the market he was studying 48:51 - Tokenization and the next evolution of fixed income 49:28 - Why bond ETFs may have actually improved liquidity 55:24 - What Treasury buybacks are really trying to achieve 57:33 - Why Robin thinks the buybacks won’t solve the problem Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 12 · 1 hr 8 min
SI417: What Happens When AI Starts Trading the Markets ft. Rob Carver
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Rob Carver discuss a market that feels unusually calm despite growing pressure beneath the surface. They look at rising concerns around government debt and bond yields, recent changes to a major managed futures ETF, and why style drift matters for systematic investors. Rob explains why simplicity and robustness remain essential when building trading systems, and where discretion can and cannot fit into a systematic process. They also explore the risks of using AI in quantitative investing, whether AI-driven traders could change market behavior, and why adapting trend speed to volatility may be more complicated than it first appears. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Rob’s return from the summer break 02:03 - Why everyone is suddenly talking about bonds 05:07 - Treasury buybacks and the potential for new bond trends 07:40 - What happened to the Simplify managed futures ETF? 14:34 - Style drift, investor expectations and changing strategies 17:15 - Why it feels like something is about to happen in markets 20:23 - Trend following performance and the year so far 23:32 - How much should systematic investors actually optimize? 31:38 - Can discretion and systematic trading really work together? 36:37 - Where human judgment belongs in a trading strategy 40:55 - Why traders may be better at buying than selling 44:21 - AI, quant research and the risks of automated trading 52:42 - Revisiting volatility and trend following 55:47 - Why not all high-volatility markets are the same 01:00:23 - The quant winter and why manager diversification matters Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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September 9 · 1 hr 2 min
GM107: What If AI Actually Pushes Interest Rates Higher? ft. Matt Klein
Alan Dunne is joined by Matt Klein to discuss whether the excitement around AI is getting ahead of the economic reality. Matt explains why the parallels with the 1990s productivity boom may be misleading and why stronger productivity could actually push interest rates higher rather than lower. They explore the surge in AI investment, what rising bond yields really tell us about the economy, and whether US debt levels are as worrying as they appear. The conversation also turns to China’s enormous trade surplus, growing global imbalances, the prospect of European tariffs, currency intervention and what Kevin Warsh’s new Fed task forces could mean for monetary policy. ----- JOIN THE TREND FOLLOWING MANIFESTO BOOK LAUNCH LIST TO GET SPECIAL LOW PRICE ON OUR UPCOMING BOOK DURING THE FIRST WEEK! - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Matt on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and Matt Klein’s return to Top Traders Unplugged 01:57 - Kevin Warsh, Jackson Hole and the outlook for the Fed 05:15 - Why the AI boom may not look like the 1990s 11:39 - How quickly could AI actually boost productivity? 15:47 - Are we seeing an AI productivity boom in the data? 18:56 - Does AI change how we should think about the economy? 21:41 - AI spending, data centers and the risk of a capex bust 26:18 - Why bond yields could have further to rise 31:13 - When higher interest rates might actually be good news 33:17 - US debt sustainability and the risk of a bad equilibrium 37:04 - China and the return of global economic imbalances 42:11 - How China’s massive trade surplus is affecting the world 48:50 - Tariffs, Europe and how countries might respond to China 52:01 - Why the US intervened in the Japanese yen 58:33 - Kevin Warsh’s Fed task forces and what could change next Copyright © 2026 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here 2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here 3. Other Resources that can help you And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here Privacy Policy Disclaimer
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