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The Risky Planner™

Albert & Nate w/Dokainish & Company

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Capital projects waste billions annually on predictable delays, but there's a proven way to deliver ahead of schedule and under budget.


Join Albert Brier, Director, Project Controls and Nate Habermeyer, Director, Marketing at Dokainish & Company, as they discuss how current events and trends are reshaping project controls and mega-projects across industries.


This podcast is designed for project managers, project controls professionals, IT leaders, and executives. Our listeners grapple with high-stakes decisions, tight deadlines, and inefficient project delivery systems. They face overruns, inconsistent reporting, technology misalignment, and integration struggles, leaving projects vulnerable to delays and cost overages.


We'll dissect the biggest industry pain points, including:


  • Meeting critical milestones despite limited capacity and complex project scopes.
  • Lack of standardized processes, forcing teams to consolidate data manually.
  • Technology and system integration failures - where IT projects derail instead of accelerating progress.
  • The failure of risk management practices, leaving organizations blind to their biggest threats.
  • Why change initiatives fail, and how organizations can build a culture that embraces project controls​.


Whether you're leading a megaproject or struggling to get executives to buy into project controls, this podcast will give you the tools and insights to take control of your capital projects - instead of letting them control you.


Special thanks to our good friend Thompson Egbo-Egbo for the music. Find his original music at www.egbomusic.com.

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  • S2 · E26
    Wednesday · 58 min

    What AACE 2026 Revealed About the Gap Between AI Vendors and Project Practitioners

    Send us Fan Mail Fifteen people at the AACE conference in June answered the same five questions about AI in project controls: what they are building, what excites them, and what they have learned. Their answers split into two groups. Software vendors describe AI products already in market. Practitioners describe AI use that is early, cautious, or absent. Albert Brier hosts this full set of interviews from the AACE Expo floor. He covers vendors building AI-driven scheduling, predictive risk models, and natural-language schedule queries, then hands the microphone to project directors, risk principals, and PMO leaders working construction, nuclear, and infrastructure programs. The pattern that emerges: vendors talk about AI as a core product feature. Practitioners talk about AI as something they are still evaluating. Girish Bhatia of ConstructMind describes cutting schedule generation time from 25 days to 25 minutes using a "human AI human" architecture, where AI handles logic and duration calculations and humans validate the output because AI cannot take liability for the result. Philip Talbot of Nodes and Links describes AI that lets users query a schedule in natural language, isolated from the open internet so project data never leaves the client's environment. Rhys Phillips of nPlan describes predictive models trained on nearly a decade of historical project outcomes to forecast duration and risk on new projects. Rohit Sinha of SmartPM Technologies explains why his team builds custom models instead of using general-purpose tools: general-purpose models "are not very good at construction," and the stakes on projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars do not tolerate wrong answers. The practitioners tell a different story. Justin Jacobsen of MBP says his team is still in an exploration phase, mostly using AI to help build internal software rather than to run project controls directly. Matthew Schoenhardt, who has run a quarter trillion dollars of quantitative risk analysis, says he is doing "nothing really" with AI yet, though the conference gave him ideas. Sara Horsey of Bridging Pennsylvania Constructors says her team uses AI for consolidating safety statistics but has not implemented it on the project controls side. Holly Parkis describes a risk-based, cautious approach: AI as a tool, not a driver, pending solutions to hallucination and cost problems. Several interviews single out data centers as the sector moving fastest, with procurement backlogs running five to eight years and hyperscalers scaling teams to match. Matthew Schoenhardt connects that pace to a broader industry shift away from formal quantitative risk analysis on owner-funded megaprojects. Rachel Fleming of MBP and Diana Nada both name communication, not technology, as the lesson they carry into every project. Tracy Leung of Ontario Power Generation discusses a $700 million equity investment from the Williams Treaty First Nations into the Darlington New Project small modular reactor program, and what genuine partnership with Indigenous nations requires beyond a permitting step. Software vendors at AACE are building AI products for scheduling, risk analysis, and predictive forecasting. The practitioners who would use those products are, by their own account, still in exploration, still cautious about data security, and in at least one case still deciding whether to start. The gap between those two positions is the subject of this episode. The AI enthusiasm at AACE is real. The adoption gap between vendors and practitioners is also real. Closing it starts with naming it honestly. Read the companion blog post: What AACE 2026 Revealed About the Gap Between AI Vendors and Project Practitioners Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E25
    September 9 · 51 min

    AACE 2026: What Practitioners Actually Say About Risk and AI

    Send us Fan Mail Fifteen capital project practitioners at AACE International's 2026 conference named communication, not technology, as their biggest advantage on projects. Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier break down floor interviews on AI adoption, a new program-level Monte Carlo risk paper, and what separates practitioner caution from vendor enthusiasm. Capital project risk management is shifting from single-point cost and schedule numbers toward decision support that executives can actually use. At AACE International's 2026 conference, Albert Brier and co-author Roger Bradfield presented a paper proposing a standardized, repeatable method for rolling sub-project risk up to the program level using Monte Carlo simulation, without overloading the risk model with every schedule in the program. Nate and Albert discuss what happened on the conference floor and in the technical sessions. Albert explains the paper's core framework, the questions it drew from AACE's Decision and Risk Management subcommittee, and why the next step is potentially drafting a Recommended Practice. They cover the growing trend of reframing risk analysis as decision support rather than a single dollar figure, and they walk through fifteen floor interviews with practitioners from firms including Ontario Power Generation, MBP, Nplan, SmartPM, and Volkert. The paper Albert presented gives programs a mathematically valid way to identify risk at the sub-project level and roll it up without duplicating every individual project schedule inside one giant risk model. Reviewers asked two recurring questions: whether any organization could realistically execute a framework this rigorous, and how schedule, which does not add up the way cost does, fits into a program-level contingency plan. A separate conversation with a utility-sector reviewer surfaced a real gap in the draft: how to manage a shared management reserve when a program is executed by multiple organizations that do not share one budget. On the interview side, when asked what "secret sauce" they bring to projects, most practitioners pointed to communication and interpersonal skill, not a proprietary tool or technique. That theme repeated when Albert asked about the biggest lesson learned early in their careers. The AI question produced a different pattern entirely: practitioners doing highly technical work, planning, scheduling, and quantitative risk analysis, described cautious, limited, or no AI use, while every software vendor interviewed described deep AI investment across their product lines. The enthusiasm around AI in project controls software is real. The gap between what vendors are building and what practitioners are actually using day to day is also real. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E23
    June 26 · 1 min

    Albert Brier Is Heading to AACE — And Bringing the Microphone

    Send us Fan Mail Albert Brier will be at the AACE International Conference and Expo at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. He'll be recording interviews live on the show floor. If you want to join him on The Risky Planner or share what you're seeing in project management right now, find Albert at the conference. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E22
    June 9 · 46 min

    Stochastic Roll-Up: Taming Multi-Project Risk | The Risky Planner | S2E22

    Send us Fan Mail If your program sets contingency by summing project P80s, your confidence interval is lower than you approved. No AACE standard addresses this. Albert Brier, Roger Bradfield, and Rachel Fleming present the only framework that does, June 30 in Las Vegas. Every organization running a multi-project program is making the same mathematical error when they set their contingency budget. Not because their people cannot do the math. Because no formal standard exists at the program level. The AACE has six recommended practices for project-level risk estimation. It has zero for programs. Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier are joined by Roger Bradfield, the show's first guest, to discuss RISK-4852, a contingency management framework for multi-project programs co-authored by Albert Brier, Roger Bradfield, and Rachel Fleming of MBP Consulting. The episode covers where the gap in program-level standards comes from, why adding probabilistic contingency estimates across projects produces the wrong number, and what the stochastic rollup method does differently. The paper presents at AACE International 2026 in Las Vegas, June 28 through 30. The problem starts with a simple question nobody can answer. When a client in a monthly program review asks for a P80 value across the entire portfolio, the answer should be straightforward. In practice, most program risk teams either sum their individual project contingencies, which is mathematically incorrect, or build a monolithic program schedule with tens of thousands of activities, which is practically unmanageable. Neither approach produces a defensible program-level confidence interval. The framework Albert, Roger, and Rachel built takes the outputs of project-level risk models, treats them as inputs into a program-level model, and produces a valid stochastic rollup without discarding the project-level work already done. The second structural problem the paper addresses is reserves. Programs typically maintain two types: project contingency held at the project level and management reserve held centrally. Without a model that shows the difference between summed project estimates and an integrated program estimate, there is no defensible basis for sizing the management reserve. Program managers set it by judgment. Executives approve confidence intervals they believe are accurate. The paper gives both a number with a method behind it. The framework also mandates conditions that programs should already have in place: a program-level risk owner, a steering committee, and a centrally managed budget. As Albert notes in the episode, the framework works best when those structures exist. When they do, the stochastic rollup model doubles as a summary schedule and a monthly reporting foundation. The window for influencing how this gets adopted as a standard is now. RISK-4852 is a paper, not yet a recommended practice. The AACE RP process requires practitioners to engage, test the framework on real programs, and contribute to the literature. Albert, Roger, and Rachel are presenting June 30 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas and at the Safran Expo the following day. That is where the conversation starts. The gap is real and documented. The math behind "just add the P80s" is wrong. The window to build something better is open now. Another program cycle will close on a reserve number that was never correct if that window goes unused. Read the companion blog post: https://dokainish.com/insights/aace-research-paper/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E21
    May 22 · 28 min

    Alberta and Ottawa Agreed on a Pipeline. No One Will Build It. | Risky Planner S2E21

    Send us Fan Mail Alberta and Ottawa signed a memorandum of understanding on a west coast crude pipeline. No private proponent has stepped forward, no scope has been defined, and the two provinces the pipeline must cross have not agreed to it. Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier break down why the MOU matters and why it does not yet constitute a project. They examine the two structural barriers blocking a private proponent: British Columbia's consistent opposition to crude pipeline construction through its territory, and the Indigenous consultation requirements no MOU can substitute for. They assess the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, which Ottawa tied to pipeline support as a policy condition, and what its track record at commercial scale means for anyone treating that linkage as a formality. The episode closes on the pre-scope phase: why bringing the goal rather than the plan to Indigenous stakeholders is the only consultation approach with a different outcome on the other side. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction and asbestos 01:35 Going west — Alberta and the MOU 03:07 The New York Times Canada letter 04:48 The Major Projects Office and Alberta's exclusion 05:32 Carbon capture: the Pathways Alliance track record 06:11 Alberta separatism and equalization payments 09:58 The MOU: what Alberta and Ottawa actually agreed to 11:21 Why a west coast pipeline makes economic sense 13:18 Why no private proponent has stepped up 14:31 Barrier one: British Columbia 16:47 Barrier two: Indigenous and First Nations consultation 18:21 What Ottawa's MOU actually put on Alberta's plate 20:15 The scope problem — what does this pipeline look like? 23:34 Danielle Smith's response and what it signals 23:50 What should happen next — the pre-scope window 26:23 Inverting the consultation model Read the companion blog post: https://dokainish.com/insights/infrastructure-project-management/alberta-pipeline-no-proponent/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E20
    May 1 · 43 min

    Canada Builds: The $2 Trillion Gap Nobody Is Accounting For

    Send us Fan Mail Canada has committed a trillion dollars in capital investments across nuclear, mining, infrastructure, and LNG. Research on 16,000+ projects says 91.5% of megaprojects exceed budget, schedule, or both — and the overrun pattern in nuclear routinely reaches 100%. Nate and Albert break down why Darlington Unit 4's success does not automatically transfer to Pickering, the Darlington SMR, or Crawford. They cover what politicians are missing when they review project briefings, why Canada has no federal project controls framework equivalent to the US GSA model, and why the definition phase — open right now on most of Canada's major projects — is the highest-leverage window for closing the cost gap before it becomes a political crisis. The enthusiasm is real. The numbers are not. The window to change that is now. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction: Canada's nation-building moment and the Iran context 01:10 Globalization reversing: Canada's strategic uncoupling from trade dependencies 03:55 Ontario and Canada's capital investment numbers: what's been announced 05:20 The trillion-dollar gap: why announced budgets understate actual costs 06:35 Darlington Unit 4 and the Dokainish PMO connection 08:40 What politicians are actually being told in project briefings 09:10 The transferability problem: why past success isn't a guarantee 13:25 Knowledge transfer between Darlington and Pickering 17:00 Site C, BC Hydro, and the lessons published six months before Ring of Fire breaks ground 18:00 The Darlington SMR: first of its kind, no baseline, no reference class 21:15 What MPs and ministers are missing: three things 26:45 Canada's missing federal project controls framework vs. the US GSA model 31:35 Ring of Fire, Crawford, and the infrastructure interdependency problem 37:00 Albert's four recommendations for decision makers right now Read the companion blog post: https://dokainish.com/insights/canada-builds-capital-projects/ send us feedback: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E19
    March 19 · 57 min

    The Iran War, Oil Shocks, and What Capital Project Sponsors Should Do Right Now

    Send us Fan Mail The Strait of Hormuz lost 95% of its traffic in a single week. Oil prices hit $120. Aluminium, urea, LNG, and petrochemical feedstocks are all disrupted simultaneously. Force majeure declarations are cascading from Gulf producers. Nate and Albert break down what the Iran war means for capital project portfolios. They cover the 90 to 180 day procurement lag before repriced commodities hit project budgets, why standard risk registers fail during cascading disruptions, how force majeure propagates through contracting chains, and the three-bucket framework for portfolio triage: accelerate insulated projects, shutter projects that no longer pencil, and replan everything else from the ground up. The estimate from six weeks ago is no longer valid. The market you return to after pausing is not the market you left. Topics covered: 00:00 Introduction and indigenous consultation in Canadian capital projects 11:55 Episode start: the Iran war and capital project risk 16:20 The Strait of Hormuz closure and first decisions for project sponsors 17:30 Enterprise risk vs. project risk: who owns geopolitical disruption 25:44 The 90 to 180 day procurement lag and real cost impact timeline 26:13 Fertilizer, aluminium, and LNG disruptions beyond oil 33:37 Cascading system failures: shipping, energy, water infrastructure 39:50 Force majeure, claims processes, and war profiteering risk 45:49 The wait-and-see trap: why pausing is not a neutral decision 50:51 Interest rates, stagflation, and the financing squeeze 55:04 Albert's one piece of advice: accelerate, shutter, replan Moose Hide Campaign: https://moosehidecampaign.ca/ Listener survey: https://forms.office.com/r/KFCi9aiENH Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E18
    February 26 · 1 hr 1 min

    Prediction Scorecard: Capital Project Forecasts vs. 2026 Reality | The Risky Planner S2E18

    Send us Fan Mail A year ago on The Risky Planner, Albert Brier and Nate Habermeyer made a series of predictions about where capital projects were headed. Mining electrification. AI adoption in project controls. Autonomous equipment risk. Data center energy. Nuclear deals. Mega project cost performance. This episode puts each prediction on trial against sourced data from 2025 and early 2026. What you will learn: 00:00 Cold Open 03:00 News: Belt and Road Initiative hits $213.5B in 2025 construction deals 06:00 China's energy advantage and SMR race 12:00 Mine electrification: market tripling to $10.51B by 2033 15:45 Cogeneration: mining companies become power generators 17:00 Grid stability as a scheduling dependency 22:00 Mining vs. AI: competing for energy 26:00 Autonomous haul trucks: near-zero incidents with fleet separation 33:00 AI adoption: 12% usage, 29% unprepared, 40% price increase by 2027 39:00 AI job displacement: 37% of US companies replacing roles 43:00 Nuclear for AI: Meta signs 6GW deal in January 2026 44:00 Data center growth: 14% CAGR, $3T investment by 2030 48:00 Fiber optic demand: AI data centers need 36x more fiber 51:00 Mega projects: 9 out of 10 exceed budget 54:00 California High Speed Rail: 59% of segment complete 57:00 Advice for project executives on AI-driven planning Key stats from the episode: - Mining equipment electrification: $3.05B to $10.51B by 2033 - Each battery electric vehicle: 600 tonnes CO2 reduction/year, 20% productivity increase - Texas power requests nearly quadrupled in 2025, 73% from AI data centers - Meta: multi-gigawatt nuclear deals signed January 2026 - AI data centers: 36x more fiber than traditional builds - 109 of 302 AI models had price changes in January 2026 - Rail projects: 44.7% average cost overrun - 9 out of 10 mega projects exceed budget The Risky Planner is produced by Dokainish & Company. Music by Thompson Egbo-Egbo: egbomusic.com Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S2 · E17
    January 28 · 1 hr 4 min

    Capital Project Time Machine: Why Megaprojects Fail

    Send us Fan Mail HELP PICK FUTURE TOPICS, TAKE OUR SURVEY. Most capital projects do not fail during execution. They fail when early approvals accept uncertainty that later becomes unmanageable. In this long-cut episode of The Risky Planner Podcast, Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier revisit well-known megaprojects to examine what information was available at the start, what risks were visible, and what teams and executive sponsors could reasonably have challenged before work began. The discussion covers projects that were large, complex, and governed by formal PMOs. Many ultimately delivered assets now considered successful in operation. All experienced severe cost growth and schedule delay. Key themes include: Why early estimates systematically understate cost and duration How optimism bias shows up in capital project approvals What “first-of-a-kind” risk really looks like in practice Why some risks exist in registers but still go underpriced What executive sponsors should ask at the first decision gate This episode is relevant for executive sponsors, PMO leaders, and project controls professionals working in regulated, multi-stakeholder environments where early decisions carry long-term consequences. Listen to understand where leverage actually exists—and why it is highest before construction starts. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E16
    Dec 19, 2025 · 15 min

    Season 1 Finale: What You Missed and Why 2026 Changes Everything

    Send us Fan Mail Hosts Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier recorded this finale in person — a first for the show — to reflect on what shaped the world of capital projects in 2025, which episodes hit hardest, and where they're headed in 2026. Season 1 covered ground: AI tools and their real-world limits in project controls. SMs, BIM, climate risk. Tariffs and political uncertainty rippling through supply chains. The most downloaded episode featured live interviews from the AACE conference floor, where Albert spoke with practitioners like Dr. David Hewlett about what's changing in the field. Albert shares a preview of an upcoming AACE paper on program risk management — co-authored with Roger Bradfield and Rachel Fleming. The core problem: most mega-projects are actually programs made up of hundreds of smaller, interrelated projects. Each brings its own risk setup. No consolidated framework exists. Nuclear waste management projects illustrate this perfectly — individually small, collectively worth hundreds of billions, and loaded with scope uncertainty until work begins. The hosts also pull back the curtain on their production setup (a lot of help from Perplexity) and tease plans for 2026: audience polls, feedback loops, and deeper engagement with listeners. This episode is for project controls professionals, schedulers, risk analysts, and anyone tracking where the industry is headed. If you followed Season 1, this wraps the themes together. If you're new, it's a roadmap to what we covered and why it matters. Subscribe now for Season 2. Visit riskyplanner.com to explore every episode. Connect with us on LinkedIn — we want to hear what topics you want covered next. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E15
    Dec 2, 2025 · 39 min

    The Skills Gap Is a Crisis: Why You Cannot Buy Project Controls Experience

    Send us Fan Mail Your next billion-dollar capital project faces a single point of failure: the people required to plan and execute it just do not exist. The industry faces a severe labor deficit. Data confirms that 94% of construction contractors cannot fill open project controls positions Additionally, 41% of the current workforce will retire by 2031. You cannot hire your way out of this shortage because the talent pool is drying up. In this episode of The Risky Planner, Albert Brier and Nate Habermeyer analyze this deficit. They explain why scheduling and risk analysis require site-specific context that is vanishing as senior experts retire without transferring knowledge. Key insights from this episode: The "Black Magic" of Planning: Effective scheduling is not data entry; it requires specific job-site context to identify risks before they become delays666. Replacing seasoned planners with remote resources removes this context and degrades project intelligence. The AI "Combo" Advantage: AI will not replace the scheduler, but it will expose the unskilled8. Research suggests that professionals who combine their expertise with AI ("Combos") outperform those using only AI or only manual methods. The Multitasking Dilution: Modern schedulers manage 12–15 projects simultaneously, a sharp increase from the historical standard of one dedicated planner per major project10101010. This task-switching reduces planners to data entry clerks doing the minimum required to feed reporting systems. The Risk Premium: Because effective risk management requires mastery of cost, schedule, and scope, qualified risk professionals now command a 20–40% salary premium over general project controls roles. The Strategic Imperative: You must build the talent you cannot find. For Leaders: Stop searching for the perfect senior hire. Budget for the 3–5 years required to train apprentices under your remaining experts. For Juniors: Find a mentor immediately15. Learn the foundational principles from the retiring generation, then apply modern AI tools to become the hybrid professional the market demands. Next Step: Listen to the full episode to restructure your teams before the retirement wave hits your portfolio. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E14
    Nov 3, 2025 · 44 min

    Offshoring & Capital Projects

    Send us Fan Mail Offshoring project management works for software development. It fails for capital construction. The difference: the feedback loop between physical site conditions and project control decisions. Albert Brier and Nate Habermeyer examine why remote project management models that succeed in IT create invisible risks on construction sites—risks that surface when projects run months behind and millions over budget. PMI's 2024 Pulse of the Profession report shows remote teams achieving success rates comparable to onsite teams. But that data reflects primarily IT projects where Agile methodologies thrive. Capital construction operates under different constraints. Physical projects face physical realities. Weather delays deliveries. Soil changes scope. Crane availability dictates sequence. A remote project controls team can't see the mud, can't smell diesel smoke when a generator fails, can't overhear the superintendent mention a supplier issue impacting the critical path. The digital layer—dashboards, sensors, drone footage, progress tracking—promises to bridge this gap. But sensors capture data, not context. A camera shows a crane in position, not the operator who noticed a defect and stopped work. A progress app shows 73% complete, not the workaround creating future rework. When project controls professionals lose jobsite knowledge access, planning quality degrades. Offshore schedulers build timelines that look rigorous in Primavera but collapse when field realities intervene. They lack context to challenge unrealistic durations, spot scope creep, or understand how weather will impact concrete pours. This episode breaks down which functions can move offshore—document control, cost coding, baseline schedules—and which require site proximity: critical path analysis, look-ahead planning, resource allocation. Albert shares insights from power stations, refineries, and infrastructure projects where hybrid models tried to balance cost with effectiveness. Most failed because they skipped knowledge transfer protocols. Organizations that succeeded used buddy systems pairing onsite and offshore staff, required site visits for scale perspective, and maintained overlapping hours for real-time problem solving. The conversation addresses an existential risk: the construction industry is raising project managers who have never walked a job site. They build careers managing from spreadsheets, optimizing metrics that don't reflect ground truth. Without field experience, they can't distinguish between a schedule that looks good and one that will work. For executives evaluating offshore strategies, this episode provides critical questions: Which roles require site proximity? How will offshore teams access real-time field intelligence? What knowledge transfer protocols will maintain institutional memory? Can offshore members visit sites during critical phases? Offshoring isn't wrong for capital projects. But applying IT models to construction creates risks that don't appear in cost-benefit analyses. Labor savings show up immediately. The consequences—delays, overruns, quality issues—show up 18 months later when it's too late to recover. Whether you're an executive evaluating proposals, a project controls professional facing restructuring, or a construction leader balancing efficiency with effectiveness, this episode delivers frameworks for deciding where work should happen. Subscribe to The Risky Planner Podcast for insights on capital project controls, risk management, and excellence in nuclear, mining, infrastructure, and energy sectors. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • Sep 30, 2025 · 41 min

    Why Annualized Capital Budgets Fail (And How to Fix Them)

    Send us Fan Mail Your portfolio hits 98% of its spending target. Leadership celebrates. But individual projects tell a different story: delayed scope, panic Q4 purchases, work pushed to next year. Albert Brier and Nate Habermeyer dissect why annualized capital budgets consistently fail to deliver planned value despite meeting spending goals. The data is clear: 20% of projects run behind schedule and 80% over budget. Yet organizations continue locking specific scopes to rigid annual funding windows. When delays hit—and they always do—spending shifts to outer years, creating artificial shortfalls and forcing low-quality purchases to avoid "use it or lose it" budget losses. They outline two proven fixes: Lean and continuous budgeting allocates funds to programs rather than specific projects. Quarterly planning sessions determine which projects to execute based on current conditions. Manufacturing facilities use this approach extensively. Risk-adjusted annual planning maintains project-specific budgets but applies realistic timelines based on historical performance. If projects typically run 30% behind, budget for 9 months instead of 6. Use freed capacity to start additional projects mid-year. The conversation includes anecdotes of ExxonMobil's 25% schedule contingency practices, GAO's Navy shipbuilding research from the 1990s, and refinery debottlenecking program examples. Both approaches require one critical first step: quantify your historical schedule variance. Without data proving current failures, you cannot build the business case for change. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E12
    Sep 2, 2025 · 25 min

    AACE Conference 2024: Project Controls Experts on AI & Risk

    Send us Fan Mail Hear extended interviews from the AACE conference floor with 13 project controls professionals from Hess Corporation, Pattern Energy, and more, and software companies including Safran, Smart PM Technologies, and TurboChart. Direct insights from the interviews: The future of capital projects varies by perspective. Answers ranged from "AI enabled management" (Frank Pangalon) to "integration" (Franco Yasuyama, Pattern Energy) to "dim" (Ian Nicholson, Emerald Associates). California High Speed Rail divides opinion. Some say yes, it'll get built. Others doubt it. David Hewlett notes it's only being built between Fresno and San Jose now, not the original San Diego to Sacramento vision. Excel dominates daily work. Nearly everyone named it as their most-used software, alongside Primavera P6 for scheduling and various collaboration tools like Teams. Actual advice from professionals: Each guest shared one piece of advice for new project managers. The responses focused on mentorship, communication, field experience, and staying curious about new technologies while mastering fundamentals. Claudette Smith: "Find a mentor" ✓ Frank Pangalon: "Don't let your young age or your lack of experience stop you from feeling empowered to make right recommendations" ✓ David Emanuel: "learn to tell a story from the numbers from the data" ✓ Santosh Bhat: "always be curious. Ask questions" ✓ Rohit Sinha: "think about how you're going to bring all the data together" ✓ Franco Yasuyama: "get in the field" ✓ Albert Dokainish conducted these interviews after presenting at the Safran Summit that followed the conference. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E11
    Aug 5, 2025 · 43 min

    Why “Summer Build Season” No Longer Works: Climate Risk Is Reshaping Project Schedules

    Send us Fan Mail Albert and Nate talk through a quiet shift happening on capital projects: climate adaptation is no longer a long-term planning exercise — it’s a short-term delivery problem. Schedules that used to anchor around stable permitting windows, predictable summer outages, and long-established build seasons are now under pressure. What project leaders are starting to see: Wildfire season overlapping with outage work Permitting agencies pulling back windows without warning “Summer” no longer guaranteeing dry or safe conditions Disasters triggering asset failures that disrupt project sequencing This episode explores how project teams are: Getting caught off guard by compounding seasonal risks Losing float without realizing it Pivoting from long-range climate planning to last-minute climate reacting If you’re still building your schedule around assumptions that no longer hold — this is the episode that forces a rethink. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E10
    Jul 17, 2025 · 33 min

    Data, Digital, and Uncertainty: Capital Project Professionals Share What's Next at AACE 2025

    Send us Fan Mail Albert Brier returns from the AACE conference in Anaheim with insights from 13 industry professionals on the future of capital projects. From the dominance of Excel to the rise of AI-enabled scheduling tools, this episode explores how project controls professionals are navigating digital transformation while facing unprecedented uncertainty. Hear firsthand perspectives on whether California's high-speed rail will ever be built, which software tools dominate the industry, and essential advice for newcomers entering the field. Plus, discover why Oracle might be losing its grip on enterprise scheduling and which companies are positioning themselves as the next generation of project controls solutions. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E9
    May 30, 2025 · 45 min

    Digital Twins and Building Information Modeling (BIM) in Capital Projects

    Send us Fan Mail Learn how digital twins and BIM technology revolutionize capital project management. Discover implementation strategies, cost benefits, and change management tips for project success. Join Albert and Nate as they explore the cutting-edge world of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and digital twins in capital project management. This episode breaks down complex technologies into practical insights for project professionals. Key Learning Points: BIM Fundamentals: Understand what Building Information Modeling really means and how it differs from traditional 2D drawings Digital Twin Technology: Learn how digital twins create virtual replicas of physical assets for better project planning and execution Multi-Dimensional BIM: Discover 4D (time), 5D (cost), and 6D (maintenance) BIM applications and their real-world benefits Implementation Strategies: Get practical advice on introducing these technologies without creating expensive digital paperweights Change Management: Learn how to overcome resistance and ensure successful adoption across project teams Cost Justification: Understand how to measure ROI and prove value to stakeholders Convergent Technologies: Explore how VR, scanning, and automation integrate with digital twins Success Factors: Identify what separates successful implementations from costly failures Perfect for: Project managers, project controls professionals, construction executives, and anyone involved in capital project delivery who wants to understand how emerging technologies can improve project outcomes. Q: What is the difference between BIM and digital twins? A: BIM (Building Information Modeling) stores information about built assets, typically including 2D/D drawings and equipment data. Digital twins are highly detailed D models that create virtual replicas of physical objects, allowing you to test scenarios and predict outcomes. Digital twins are essentially BIM models with extensive detail and precision. Q: What are 4D, 5D, and 6D BIM models? A: 4D BIM adds time/scheduling to D models, showing construction progress over time. 5D BIM incorporates cost information, enabling real-time cost tracking and forecasting. 6D BIM includes operations and maintenance data for long-term asset management and capital planning. Q: How do digital twins save money on construction projects? A: Digital twins enable better change control, clash detection, and planning optimization. By identifying issues virtually before construction, projects can reduce costly field changes, improve material routing, and achieve better resource allocation. Case studies show 30-50% cost savings. Q: What industries benefit most from digital twin technology? A: Energy, mining, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors see significant benefits. The digital twin market is growing twice as fast as the general architectural engineering and construction market, with projected spending of $155 billion by 2030. Q: How do frontline workers benefit from digital twins? A: While workers may still use traditional 2D drawings, the information quality improves dramatically through better planning and clash detection. Digital twins also enable new tools like VR walkthroughs and real-time D model access for complex ceiling spaces and routing. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E8
    Apr 22, 2025 · 34 min

    Navigating Capital Project Uncertainty in 2025: Economic Challenges and Strategic Solutions

    Send us Fan Mail In this episode of "The Risky Planner" podcast, hosts Nate Habermeyer and Albert Brier tackle the pressing issue of uncertainty in capital investments during 2025's volatile economic climate. The hosts discuss how inflation, interest rates, supply chain problems, and trade tensions are creating unprecedented challenges for capital project planning. Albert shares his experience with a major oil company where project cancellation led to significant ripple effects and wasted resources. The conversation explores how companies are responding to uncertainty, with many pausing investments not because opportunities aren't available, but because risk assessment has become increasingly complex. Key topics include: Jerome Powell's warning about higher inflation and slower growth The impact of tariffs on cross-border procurement How uncertainty affects project schedules and budgets Strategies for quantifying and visualizing risk The importance of corporate-level risk tolerance guidance The hosts conclude with practical advice for project executives: while caution is warranted, complete investment freezes can worsen stagflation. Organizations should carefully evaluate which projects might remain profitable despite uncertainty, applying wider uncertainty bands to all projections. Resources mentioned: White paper on quantifying and visualizing project risk: www.dokainish.com/projectrisk Risk webinar available https://dokainish.com/project-performance-through-risk-visualization/ Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E7
    Mar 21, 2025 · 41 min

    How PMOs Drive Real Business Impact in Mega Projects: Lessons from Dubai’s Real Estate Digital Transformation

    Send us Fan Mail In this episode of The Risky Planner, Nate Habermeyer talks to Albert Brier, who is live from Dubai, where he's leading the setup of a PMO for one of the most ambitious real estate developments in the world. ThSey explore how digital transformation is redefining project management in MENA, with a strong focus on project controls, budgeting, scheduling, and risk management. Albert shares insights on building high-functioning PMOs that move beyond reporting to drive real business value—by staying relevant, flexible, and deeply connected to execution. They dive into: The difference between project management and project controls—and why scale matters How business analysts and data maturity play a pivotal role in complex, multi-stakeholder programs Common pitfalls in PMO implementations (like building systems no one uses) The balance between standardization and customization in PMO frameworks Real-world examples of change management, cost control, and joint venture governance structures Whether you're a director, manager, or business analyst overseeing large capital projects, this episode delivers practical lessons on aligning PMOs with outcomes that matter. Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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  • S1 · E6
    Feb 13, 2025 · 31 min

    Navigating Capital Projects in an Uncertain World

    Send us Fan Mail In this episode of the Risky Planner Podcast, hosts Nate and Albert reunite after Albert's travels to Dubai to discuss the impact of Trump's recently announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. They explore how these tariffs affect capital projects across various industries, particularly construction and energy infrastructure. Albert provides context about the evolution of tariff threats from earlier blanket proposals targeting countries like Canada and Mexico to the current focus on specific materials. The hosts examine how these tariffs create uncertainty in project planning, potentially causing issues with locked-in pricing, contractor insolvency risks, and the need to recalculate cost estimates. They also discuss alternative construction approaches, such as using cross-laminated timber, that might gain popularity as organizations look to mitigate rising steel costs. Tune in at www.riskyplanner.com to learn how project leaders can navigate this uncertain landscape in capital project management. Here are the key takeaways from the podcast episode: Trump recently announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports affecting all countries These tariffs create significant uncertainty for capital projects that rely on these materials Projects with locked-in pricing may face contractor change orders or supplier insolvency risks Cost estimators will need to revise budgets since current pricing databases don't account for these tariffs Energy sector projects (data centers, grid infrastructure, renewable energy) face particular challenges as demand grows Alternative materials like cross-laminated timber may see increased adoption as organizations seek alternatives Organizations face difficult decisions: absorb costs, delay projects, or seek alternative construction methods Long-term capital planning (5-15 years) becomes more complicated with unpredictable material costs Project leaders should keep options open and consider alternative ways to achieve project goals The uncertainty may drive innovation in construction and infrastructure development Presented by Dokainish & Company www.dokainish.com The Risky Planner podcast delivers expert insights on project controls, capital project management, and strategic planning for today's complex business environment. Subscribe for regular episodes featuring industry leaders and practical advice.

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