10 - Dr Abi Willis: IPP Sentences, Risk Assessment and Safe Uncertainty
In this episode of the Forensic Update Podcast, Dr Rachel Worthington is joined by clinical psychologist Dr Abi Willis to explore one of the most complex and challenging areas of forensic psychology: risk assessment for people serving Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences. IPP sentences were abolished in 2012, but not retrospectively, meaning people sentenced under the system can remain subject to its provisions. For those still in custody, psychological risk assessment can play an important role in informing decisions about risk, progression and eventual release. Dr Abi Willis - Final Edit Drawing on her paper published in the 152nd edition of Forensic Update, Abi examines the evidence underpinning the Structured Professional Judgement tools routinely used within forensic practice, including the widely used HCR-20. The conversation explores: What IPP sentences are and why they remain such a challenging issue The psychological impact of imprisonment beyond tariff The role psychologists and risk assessments can play in the IPP process Structured Professional Judgement tools and the HCR-20 What the research tells us about the predictive validity of risk assessment The lack of research specifically examining these tools within IPP populations Why individual context, mental health, neurodiversity and other factors matter The difference between risk prediction, formulation and treatment planning Power and responsibility within psychological assessment How psychologists can be more transparent about uncertainty and limitations Whether repeating a psychological risk assessment is always the best response when uncertainty remains The concept of safe uncertainty and what it could mean for the future of forensic practice Importantly, Abi is not arguing against the use of Structured Professional Judgement tools. She describes them as the best available approach to producing comprehensive and robust risk assessments, while asking an important question: are psychologists sufficiently clear about what these assessments can, and cannot, tell us? Dr Abi Willis - Final Edit It is a thoughtful conversation about evidence, ethics, professional responsibility and the considerable consequences psychological assessments can have for the people being assessed. Ultimately, Abi challenges the profession to become more comfortable acknowledging uncertainty, while considering how psychology can contribute to progress for people serving IPP sentences without losing sight of public protection. Further information: The UK Parliament Justice Committee has published information and evidence relating to its inquiry into Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences. UK Parliament: Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences