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The Bitcoin Layer

The Bitcoin Layer is a premium markets research provider, covering bitcoin through a global macro lens | Research, Analysis, & Education

Featuring Nik Bhatia, author of the #1 Amazon bestseller Layered Money and USC Marshall School of Business professor.

Subscribe to our research publication and YouTube channel to learn about global macroeconomics, bitcoin, Lightning Network, the monetary and financial system, the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and geopolitics. Most importantly, develop a framework for understanding global markets—connect the dots between economic and financial concepts to see the bigger picture. Look no further for your bitcoin and macro education!

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49 episodes
Avg 35 min
English

Episodes 49

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#319
Yesterday · 31 min
Bitcoin Is Setting Up To Beat The Nasdaq
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, as bitcoin tests its 200 day moving average. Jamie explains why he believes bitcoin broke out of its bear market in August, why that turn came well before the low in global liquidity, and the levels he is watching below, including an air gap between $75,000 and $64,000. He walks through the margin debt signal that flashed before the tops in 2000, 2007, and 2021, why the degrossing in tech is one of the largest
#318
November 5 · 12 min
Why Stocks Really Crashed Today
In this episode, Nik covers the worst single day of 2026 for stocks, with the Nasdaq down 6.5% and the S&P down 4.6%, and asks whether the midterm results caused it or whether something larger is going on. He shows the Nasdaq slicing through its 200 day moving average and a trend line stretching back to 2022, and why the S&P losing 7630 and its own four year line matters. Nik argues that credit cycles are mostly apolitical and that this has been building for weeks, points to the OpenAI raise get
#317
November 3 · 19 min
The Fed Will Have To Print Bigger This Time
In this episode, Nik lays out three money market metrics he watches as a former repo and treasury bill trader, and why they suggest the Fed may be closer to another round of QE than anyone wants to admit. He starts with SOFR creeping back above IORB, a spread now at its widest since tax day, and the month end and year end dates he is watching next. He then covers why more than $7 trillion in T-bills has to be funded by a cash market that cannot grow to meet it, and why bank reserves at 9% of GDP
#316
November 2 · 1 hr 9 min
Prediction Markets Are A Symptom Of Debasement
In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why prediction markets aren’t the trustless systems people assume, how the oracle problem means someone still has to decide the outcome, and why the assumption that markets always reveal truth breaks down when someone has reason to lose money on purpose. He and Nik also cover why the Genius Act creat
#316
November 2 · 1 hr 9 min
Prediction Markets Are A Symptom Of Debasement
In this episode, Nik welcomes Mark Goodwin, journalist at Unlimited Hangout and former editor in chief of Bitcoin Magazine, for a conversation on prediction markets and the Genius Act. Mark explains why prediction markets aren’t the trustless systems people assume, how the oracle problem means someone still has to decide the outcome, and why the assumption that markets always reveal truth breaks down when someone has reason to lose money on purpose. He and Nik also cover why the Genius Act creat
#315
October 30 · 23 min
Bitcoin Held Up Through A $6 Billion Hack
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin’s reaction to the Binance hack, in which $6.3 billion was taken from the exchange’s hot wallet. He explains why a 5% drawdown is far milder than he would have guessed for news of that size, why this is different from the FTX collapse, and how the hacker used DeFi collateral to move stablecoins before issuers could freeze them. Nik then turns to the levels he is watching below $82,700, why gold losing its trend line opens up $3,400, and why a bearish divergence
#314
October 28 · 14 min
Wall Street Has No Idea What the Fed Is Doing Anymore
In this episode, Nik covers the Fed’s decision to hold and the reaction that surprised him more than the decision itself: Bloomberg’s anchors in full meltdown over how Kevin Warsh is communicating. He walks through their three complaints, the dissents, Warsh declining to explain why the Fed didn’t hike, and the suggestion that Williams and Jefferson are really setting policy. Nik explains why he thinks the hold was justified given how much conditions tightened after September, and why Warsh beli
#313
October 27 · 53 min
It’s Death Either Way For Japan
In this episode, Nik welcomes Peruvian Bull, also known as Roberto Rios, author of the Dollar Endgame, for a deep look at Japan. They trace the story from the 1980s bubble and the Plaza Accord through the lost decades, the move to zero rates, and the yield curve control era that made the yen the world’s funding currency. Roberto explains how the carry trade grew into something the Bank of Japan can no longer tame, why recent interventions cost $91 billion and included the US Treasury and Federal
#312
October 26 · 10 min
The Credit Cycle Is Turning On Stocks
In this episode, Nik covers three funding headlines that landed within days of each other: Anthropic filing for an IPO, SpaceX going to the bond market for $40 billion, and Meta raising $95 billion in equity. He explains why so much issuance at once signals the funding window is narrowing, why a turning credit cycle starves everything on the fringe, and why stock valuations and earnings growth are already rolling over.
#311
October 23 · 40 min
97% Of Bitcoin’s Price Is Explained By The Power Law | Santostasi & Perrenod
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Giovanni Santostasi and Dr. Stephen Perrenod of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, joining from Lugano, to explain the bitcoin power law. Giovanni walks through why bitcoin’s price plotted against time produces a straight line on a log log chart, and why an R squared of 0.97 means only 3% of the price history falls outside it. Stephen explains the two power laws underneath it, adoption growing as the cube of time, the same rate as the internet and as viruses
#310
October 20 · 1 hr 10 min
The Most Important Thing About This Debt Crisis with Matt Dines
In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to talk through where we are in the credit cycle and why he thinks we are in the late innings. Matt walks through the names he watches widening every day, from Oracle and CoreWeave to JetBlue bonds trading at 61 cents on the dollar, and explains why record high yield deals from SoftBank and Paramount Skydance mean companies are issuing with a gun to their head rather than by choice. He argues that a QE response would be the wrong prescription, becaus
#309
October 16 · 7 min
Bitcoin Wants To Run But Liquidity Won’t Let It
In this episode, Demian explains TBL’s analysis of why bitcoin is holding up even as liquidity hit its lowest point of the cycle. He covers how the TBL Liquidity Index works, what a red dot actually signals, and why bitcoin’s own supply and demand have shifted in its favor as the sellers ran out and more than 70% of supply moved into profit. He closes on the three things that would need to ease for liquidity to turn.
#308
October 15 · 15 min
The Math Behind $1 Million Bitcoin
In this episode, Nik explains the bitcoin power law and why he believes it points to a million dollar bitcoin in the early 2030s. He walks through bitcoin’s orders of magnitude, four years to go from $1,000 to $10,000 and eight years to reach $100,000, and why the next zero may take a similar stretch. Nik covers where the power law comes from, the exponent Giovanni Santostasi solved for, and why power laws show up in nature, from the education level of a city to how much an elephant eats. He als
#307
October 13 · 12 min
Nobody Has Ever Lost Money Holding Bitcoin Six Years
In this episode, Nik explains what he thinks is the easiest way to introduce bitcoin to new investors, which comes down to returns. He compares bitcoin against stocks, bonds, and gold across three, five, seven, and ten year windows, showing where bitcoin trails and where it separates, including the five year stretch where gold and stocks both beat it. Nik then walks through the HODL Cave, which plots returns by holding period and shows that nobody who has held bitcoin for six years has ever lost
#306
October 8 · 26 min
Bitcoin Just Lost $82,700
In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin losing the $82,700 level he had been tracking, falling 3% for a second straight day. He explains why he is watching 71 to 74,000 as the next support, why a negative liquidity environment mutes bitcoin's returns, and why the dollar squeeze building through October is a main reason liquidity is reading negative. Nik also covers gold testing a trend line it has held since 2025, why the ten-year yield may finally be catching a bid after a strong auction, why the t
#305
October 6 · 21 min
Bitcoin Has A 7x To Catch Gold
In this episode, Nik walks through TBL Pulse and the macro charts he watches every day, starting with why bitcoin is climbing while liquidity drains. He explains why the TBL liquidity index has fallen close to the midline that separates expansion from contraction, why rate of change matters more than the level, and why bitcoin performing well in a negative liquidity environment tells him it has entered an early stage of recovery after a deep capitulation. Nik also covers the move index and the d
#304
October 2 · 14 min
Bitcoin Doesn’t Care About The Bond Crisis
In this episode, Nik asks how bitcoin is outperforming both gold and the dollar in the middle of a global bond crisis. He covers why rising yields, bond volatility, and a stronger dollar all point to tighter liquidity, then turns to the French German bond spread and why a move of this size has only happened twice in thirty years. Nik explains where he thinks the European Central Bank would have to step in, why falling oil could ironically rescue the French bond market, and why this crisis may be
#303
September 30 · 21 min
Europe Is About To Print
In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers the blowout in French government bond yields against German bunds and why he sees a sovereign debt crisis developing in France. He explains why a falling euro suggests Europe is defending its bond market rather than its currency, and why he is watching for trial balloons of a European money creation event from the ECB or the Bank for International Settlements. Nik then walks through the charts TBL members use most, the MOVE index, the dollar index, and the
#302
September 29 · 48 min
Bitcoin’s Volatility Is Dying (And That’s Bullish)
In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a chart pack of more than 100 charts, starting with the bitcoin gold ratio charging back above 20 while global bond markets remain in meltdown. He shows why bitcoin versus gold has tracked bitcoin versus the dollar for its entire life, why treasuries lost more than 27% of their value over five years, and why bitcoin's realized volatility keeps compressing as it gets absorbed into the financial system. Nik explains why that compression should pull in
#301
September 25 · 20 min
Central Banks Have Lost Control
In this episode, Nik welcomes back James Van Straten of CoinDesk for a conversation on the global bond meltdown and the fiscal crisis building in the United Kingdom. James explains why he thinks central banks have lost control, walking through the Bank of England's reversal on gilt sales and why moving that debt to the Treasury does not make it disappear. He covers why the UK housing market has gone no bid as short-term mortgages reset, and why the Bank of England will eventually have to hike to

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