Science From the Fringe

Tracy Beth Høeg - When Scientific Evidence and Political Agendas Collide: Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic and the FDA

In the second event of The Purpose of Science Lecture Series at Rutgers University, physician, epidemiologist, and former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug center head Tracy Beth Høeg, MD, PhD discussed what happens when scientific evidence conflicts with political, institutional, or economic pressures. In the first part of her lecture, Tracy revisited several of the most contentious public-health debates of the COVID-19 pandemic, including school closures, masking, vaccine-associated myocarditis, university booster mandates, and the quality of evidence used to support those policies. In the second part of her lecture, Tracy spoke about her experience inside the FDA, where she served as Senior Advisor for Clinical Sciences and later as Acting Director of the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. She described her concerns about how regulatory decisions are made, highlighted several products whose approval histories raise questions about evidentiary standards and institutional influence, and recounted the circumstances surrounding her removal from the FDA after she refused to resign. Her lecture was followed by an extended Q&A on MAHA, pharmaceutical influence, media coverage, scientific dissent, the FDA-to-industry revolving door, institutional accountability, and the responsibilities of scientists and physicians. (recorded October 13, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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The Proximal Origin Slack Messages (In Defense of Virology - Episode 14)

In the fourteenth episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels and Simon Wain-Hobson discuss recently released Slack messages exchanged among four authors of The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2, the most highly cited paper on COVID-19 origins. The messages are the subject of Simon’s recent essay The Gang of Four’s Slack File. Like previously released messages, these exchanges reveal a striking contrast between the authors’ private consideration of laboratory-origin scenarios and their public dismissal of those possibilities. The messages also reveal scientists intoxicated by their newfound influence, discussing retaliation against critics while portraying themselves as morally righteous. (recorded October 4, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Anthropic Park: Biology in the Age of AI (In Defense of Virology - Episode 13)

In the thirteenth episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels and Simon Wain-Hobson discuss whether AI is creating new biological threats or simply amplifying existing ones. The discussion centers on Anthropic’s September 10 threat assessment report, which describes five cases of scientists using Claude in ways Anthropic believes could support biological weapons development. The concern was not just the research itself, but also efforts by some users to evade restrictions, bypass safeguards, or obscure aspects of their work. The report is the subject of Simon’s recent essay Anthropic Park, which inspired the episode’s title. Bryce and Simon discuss the possible motives of the scientists described in Anthropic’s report and place those cases in the context of earlier gain-of-function research, including the reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus and the Fouchier-Kawaoka H5N1 experiments. Simon also raises a broader question about the responsibility of scientific journals when potentially dangerous research is already online and available for use by LLMs. What is the real biological threat from AI? Bryce argues that the main risk is not autonomous AI creating new pathogens, but AI amplifying existing threats by making dangerous research easier and more efficient. Thus, the risk is amplification, not autonomy. (recorded September 20, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Scientific Responsibility in Research on Dangerous Pathogens — Part 2: COVID-19 and What Came Next

On September 11, 2026, I hosted the inaugural event of The Purpose of Science Lecture Series at Rutgers University: Scientific Responsibility in Research on Dangerous Pathogens. The event featured Simon Wain-Hobson, Professor Emeritus at the Institut Pasteur; Richard H. Ebright, Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Rutgers University; and Neil L. Harrison, Professor of Anesthesiology and Molecular Pharmacology and Therapeutics at Columbia University. I’m releasing the three-hour discussion in two parts. Part 1 traced the history from Asilomar and early debates over scientific responsibility through the post-9/11 expansion of U.S. biodefense research, the reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus, the H5N1 gain-of-function experiments, the 2014 federal pause, and the 2015 SARS coronavirus chimera experiment. Part 2 picks up with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Neil Harrison examines the epidemiological evidence surrounding the origin of COVID-19, including the Huanan Seafood Market, geographic clustering of early cases, comparisons with New York City, and the later outbreak associated with Beijing’s Xinfadi Market. The discussion then turns to the institutional response to the COVID origins question. Richard Ebright discusses the February 1, 2020 teleconference involving Anthony Fauci, Francis Collins, Jeremy Farrar, and scientists who later authored “The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2,” along with subsequent communications and the role of research funding. We then discuss the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site, the 2018 DEFUSE proposal, current U.S. policy on dangerous gain-of-function research, and the emerging risks posed by AI-enabled biology. The discussion closes with the precautionary principle, audience questions, and calls to action for how high-risk biological research should be governed going forward. About the Lecture Series The Purpose of Science Lecture Series brings prominent scientists, physicians, journalists, policymakers, and other public voices to Rutgers to examine the purpose and responsibilities of science—where scientific practice falls short of that purpose, why those failures occur, and what practical solutions might address them. Learn more: https://waksman.rutgers.edu/seminars/purpose Support the series through the Rutgers University Foundation: https://give.rutgersfoundation.org/waksman/4025.html Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Scientific Responsibility in Research on Dangerous Pathogens — Part 1: How We Got Here

On September 11, 2026, I hosted the inaugural event of The Purpose of Science Lecture Series at Rutgers University: Scientific Responsibility in Research on Dangerous Pathogens. The event brought together Simon Wain-Hobson, Professor Emeritus at the Institut Pasteur; Richard H. Ebright, Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Rutgers University; and Neil L. Harrison, Professor of Anesthesiology and Molecular Pharmacology and Therapeutics at Columbia University, for a historical examination of how scientists and scientific institutions have confronted the risks created by advances in biological research. I’m releasing the three-hour discussion in two parts. Part 1 begins with Simon Wain-Hobson’s call for scientists to adopt a Hippocratic-style commitment to “do no harm.” From there, the discussion moves through the 1975 Asilomar conference, Jonathan Beckwith’s early warnings about the social implications of molecular biology, the Biological Weapons Convention, the 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax incident, and Simon’s experience organizing an open scientific meeting on competing hypotheses about the origins of HIV. The timeline then turns to 9/11 and the Amerithrax attacks, the rapid expansion of U.S. biodefense research, Richard Ebright’s early opposition to that expansion, the open letter signed by 758 scientists, and Anthony Fauci’s response. We then discuss the reconstruction of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, the H5N1 gain-of-function experiments that ignited a major controversy over high-risk pathogen research, the 2014 federal gain-of-function pause, and the 2015 SARS coronavirus chimera experiment. Part 2 continues the timeline with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the Huanan Seafood Market, the institutional response to the COVID origins debate, the furin cleavage site and DEFUSE proposal, current U.S. policy on dangerous research, and the emerging risks posed by AI-enabled biology. About the Lecture Series The Purpose of Science Lecture Series brings prominent scientists, physicians, journalists, policymakers, and other public voices to Rutgers to examine the purpose and responsibilities of science—where scientific practice falls short of that purpose, why those failures occur, and what practical solutions might address them. Learn more:https://waksman.rutgers.edu/seminars/purpose Support the series through the Rutgers University Foundation:https://give.rutgersfoundation.org/waksman/4025.html Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

A “Bloody Good” Gain-of-Function Policy (In Defense of Virology - Episode 12)

In the twelfth episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels and Simon Wain-Hobson discuss the newly released U.S. Government Policy for Stopping High-Risk Life Sciences Research and what it means for the future of dangerous gain-of-function (dGOF) research. Simon gives the new policy high marks, highlighting its clear definition of dGOF and two provisions he did not expect: restrictions involving the creation of mirror life and the use of AI-designed genomes to create novel biological agents. They also examine the seven categories of experiments covered by the policy, their connection to the 2004 Fink Report, and the prohibition on reconstructing eradicated or extinct biological agents. The conversation then turns to how the policy will work in practice. Bryce and Simon discuss international research, remaining gaps involving private and philanthropic funding, and whether researchers or institutions will be able to exploit loopholes. They both agree that the policy establishes a meaningful chain of accountability—from investigators to their institutions to federal oversight—with potential sanctions for noncompliance. Bryce also identifies areas where the policy could be strengthened, including language stating that violations “may” rather than “will” result in penalties. They emphasize an important distinction: restricting dangerous gain-of-function research does not mean scientists should stop studying dangerous pathogens. As Simon puts it, scientists need to study dangerous microbes that already exist—they don’t need to create new ones. Finally, Bryce and Simon discuss what comes next, including the requirement to establish an independent third-party review body, the challenge of coordinating implementation across federal agencies, and the need for legislation that would make the new restrictions more durable. They conclude by discussing how politics can distort reactions to science policy and why the new framework should be judged on its substance rather than which administration produced it. (recorded August 25, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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The EPA Took It Down, Roger Put It Back (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 7)

In the seventh episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels and climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. discuss Roger’s new Extreme Weather and Climate Change Dashboard, a resource designed to make long-term trends in extreme weather accessible to scientists, journalists, policymakers, and the public. Roger explains how this project was motivated by the Trump administration’s removal of climate information from EPA websites. Although frequently critical of the politicization and exaggeration of climate science, Roger argues that removing taxpayer-funded climate data was a mistake—and that making the underlying evidence accessible is essential to a more informed climate debate. The episode explores what the data actually show about heat waves, tornadoes, floods, droughts, winter storms, wildfires, and hurricanes, as well as the crucial distinction between detecting a change and attributing that change to human activity. Roger explains why heat waves show a detectable increase while many other extremes do not, and how looking across multiple measures can guard against cherry-picking. Bryce and Roger also discuss how society should respond to increasing heat, including the roles of emissions reductions and adaptation; how Roger used AI to build the dashboard; and the importance of transparency and verification in rebuilding trust in scientific institutions and concludes with a preview of Roger’s just launched Global Extreme Weather and Climate Change Dashboard. (recorded August 19, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Tim Hunt - Moving the Goalposts or Protecting Patients?

In this episode of Science From the Fringe, host Bryce Nickels speaks with Tim Hunt, CEO of the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine (ARM), about cell and gene therapies and the difficult questions surrounding how they should be regulated by the FDA. The episode follows a March conversation with cardiologist Anish Koka about Vinay Prasad’s controversial tenure at the FDA. Together, the two episodes explore a fundamental question: When patients have devastating diseases and few treatment options, should the FDA demand stronger evidence before approving new therapies—or accept greater uncertainty to give patients faster access to experimental treatments? In the March episode, Koka defended Prasad’s efforts to strengthen the FDA’s evidentiary standards, arguing that greater scrutiny was necessary to protect patients from ineffective or harmful treatments—particularly in the rare-disease space, where patient desperation, financial incentives, and political pressure can complicate regulatory decisions. Tim offers a different perspective. He argues that the FDA became too rigid in its demands for randomized controlled trials, effectively “moving the goalposts” for rare-disease therapies. He contends that traditional trials are often impractical or ethically problematic for small populations with rapidly progressive diseases and that patients should have a greater voice in determining acceptable levels of risk and uncertainty. Bryce and Tim also discuss the scientific risks of genetically modifying embryos, the potential for human enhancement and eugenics, whether germline editing could ever be demonstrated to be safe and ethical, and ARM’s call for a 10-year moratorium on heritable human genome editing. The episode concludes with Tim’s perspective on the future of regenerative medicine, from CAR-T therapies and rare diseases to potential treatments for autoimmune disorders, Parkinson’s disease, and other more common conditions. (recorded July 21, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Science For Sale (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 6)

In the sixth episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels and climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. discuss Roger’s recent essay examining the legacy of the influential 2004 Science paper introducing the concept of “stabilization wedges.” Roger’s essay was prompted by a recent ProPublica investigation revealing that this paper was heavily shaped by BP executives whose contributions were not acknowledged in the paper. Roger explains how the stabilization wedges paper became one of the most influential papers in the history of climate policy by promoting the idea that existing technologies were sufficient to address climate change. The paper became a powerful advocacy tool, shaping philanthropic investments, climate policy, and public discourse while contributing to efforts to marginalize scientists who argued that significant technological innovation would still be required. The conversation then turns to broader questions about the relationship between science, politics, and advocacy. Bryce and Roger discuss the distinction between conducting science and using scientific publications to market predetermined policy agendas, arguing that the latter can undermine both scientific integrity and public trust. Roger and Bryce also discuss the striking parallels between the stabilization wedges paper and the 2020 Nature Medicine paper, The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. They discuss how both papers were used to influence public debate, the importance of transparency in scientific authorship, and the responsibility of scientific journals to investigate allegations of ghostwriting and misconduct in order to preserve confidence in the scientific record. (recorded July 24, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Europe's Deadly Aversion to Air Conditioning (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 5)

In the fifth episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels and climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. discuss Roger’s recent essay which presents a data-driven analysis estimating how many lives are lost because of Europe’s low air-conditioning adoption. His analysis suggests that if Europe had air-conditioning penetration comparable to the United States or Japan, tens of thousands of deaths during severe heat waves could potentially be avoided. Bryce and Roger also discuss the political and moral dimensions of climate policy. Bryce argues that governments should not prioritize reducing energy consumption over protecting human lives, contending that Europe’s low adoption of air conditioning reflects this misplaced priority. Roger argues that the real challenge is not to consume less energy, but to produce abundant low-carbon energy that supports both emissions reductions and effective adaptation. The conversation concludes with a broader discussion of technology, democracy, and the role of adaptation in building resilience to climate change. (recorded July 1, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Anthony Bellotti - The Price of Principle: Holding NIH Accountable

In this episode of Science From the Fringe, host Bryce Nickels speaks with Anthony Bellotti, founder and president of the White Coat Waste Project, a government watchdog organization dedicated to exposing and ending taxpayer-funded animal experimentation. The episode examines the tension between mission-driven advocacy and institutional incrementalism, asking whether meaningful reform comes from working within existing systems—or from holding those systems accountable when they fail to live up to their promises. Anthony discusses how a summer job in an animal laboratory at age 17 ultimately led him to create White Coat Waste and explains why the organization rejected the traditional playbook of the animal-rights movement in favor of a strategy focused on government accountability, taxpayer transparency, and bipartisan coalition-building. The conversation explores the ethical and scientific debates surrounding animal research, including whether taxpayer-funded animal experimentation is ever justified, how society should balance potential human benefits against animal suffering, and whether biomedical research has become overly reliant on animal models. Bryce and Anthony also discuss White Coat Waste’s increasingly public disagreements with NIH leadership, including the organization’s recent complaint to the HHS Office of Inspector General, allegations that NIH officials have made misleading statements about their authority to reduce animal experimentation, and broader questions of institutional accountability and public trust. Anthony also responds to criticism of White Coat Waste’s tactics, including allegations that the organization’s advocacy has contributed to threats directed at NIH officials and criticism of its willingness to work with controversial figures such as Laura Loomer to advance its mission. (recorded June 14, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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'Cowards Die Many Times' (In Defense of Virology - Episode 11)

In the eleventh episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels and Simon Wain-Hobson examine what Simon sees as a decades-long failure of the virology community to seriously confront the potential risks and societal consequences of its own research. As experiments became increasingly sophisticated and controversial, Simon argues that repeated opportunities for reflection, debate, and reform were missed. Drawing on themes from his essay “Cowards Die Many Times,” Simon traces a series of pivotal moments, beginning with the 2002 synthesis of poliovirus and continuing through the reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus, the controversial H5N1 gain-of-function experiments, and ultimately the COVID-19 pandemic. Each episode raised important questions about the risks of creating and disseminating information about potentially dangerous pathogens, yet meaningful debate was discouraged, avoided, or actively shut down. The discussion covers how prominent scientists and institutions shaped these debates and, in Simon’s view, often discouraged meaningful scrutiny of controversial research. Examples include a 2005 Science editorial by Nobel laureate Philip Sharp defending the reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus (“1918 Flu and Responsible Science”) and influential editorials in December 2011 (“A flu risk worth taking”) and June 2012 (“Benefits and Risks of Influenza Research: Lessons Learned”) by Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci defending Kawaoka and Fouchier’s controversial bird flu gain-of-function experiments. Simon argues that appeals to authority, institutional incentives, and concerns about career advancement helped create a culture in which questioning risky research became professionally and socially costly. Using a 2020 paper on COVID-19 origins (“The Origin of COVID-19 and Why It Matters”) as a case study, Simon also explains how unscrupulous scientists can transform unsupported claims into "facts" through repeated citation, institutional endorsement, and publication in prestigious journals. Once amplified by prominent scientists and influential publications, such claims can acquire the appearance of established knowledge even when the underlying evidence is weak or entirely absent. (recorded June 6, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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'The Goal Is Not Your Damn Career' (In Defense of Virology - Episode 10)

In the tenth episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels and Simon Wain-Hobson discuss Simon’s recent presentation to researchers and administrators at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) on dangerous gain-of-function research, as well as a recent Cell paper on the origins of viral pandemics that Simon critiqued in his essay, “Natural COVID crowd miss again.” The conversation begins with Simon discussing the central themes of his NIAID presentation. He argues that scientists must take primary responsibility for identifying and disclosing potential risks associated with their work and calls for a cultural shift within science grounded in the principle of “do no harm.” The discussion then turns to a recent Cell paper (Havens et al., Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics), which has been cited as evidence supporting a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. Simon offers a detailed critique of the paper’s assumptions, methodology, and conclusions, contending that it attempts to answer questions that its methods cannot reliably resolve. Simon also discusses viral adaptation, tissue-culture evolution, the challenges of proving negative propositions in science, and the dangers of drawing strong conclusions from weak correlations. Bryce and Simon also discuss the role of scientific journals and media organizations in shaping public understanding of COVID-19 origins, how publication in prestigious journals can create an unwarranted perception of certainty, and how scientific institutions risk undermining public trust when conclusions extend beyond the available evidence. The episode concludes with a broader reflection on the purpose of science itself. Simon argues that scientific progress depends on skepticism, open debate, and a willingness to change one’s mind when the evidence changes. While emphasizing the indispensable value of basic research, he maintains that scientists must remain focused on the ultimate goal of reducing disease and human suffering. As he puts it: “The goal is not your damn career. It’s to beat the hell out of microbes.” (recorded April 22, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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The Climate Apocalypse Isn’t Around the Corner (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 4)

In the fourth episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels and climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. discuss what Pielke describes as one of the most consequential developments in climate science in years: the retirement of the extreme climate scenario known as RCP 8.5. Bryce and Roger unpack how a small international committee helped shape the climate scenarios that informed scientific research, media narratives, regulations, banking policy, and global climate politics for over a decade. Roger explains why many of the “worst-case” climate projections were based on implausible assumptions about future coal use and why recent updates to climate scenario frameworks represent a major course correction. The conversation explores the difference between exploratory scientific scenarios and policy roadmaps, the relationship between climate science and political decision-making, and how climate narratives influenced public policy around the world. Bryce and Roger also discuss parallels between climate science governance and debates surrounding gain-of-function research, including questions about transparency, accountability, expert authority, and the role of broader public input in scientific decision-making. (recorded May 22, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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'An Inconvenient Truth' - 20 Years Later (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 3)

In the third episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels and climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. revisit the legacy of An Inconvenient Truth twenty years after its release. Building on Pielke’s recent essay, they examine how Al Gore framed climate change through a religious lens—apocalyptic warnings, moral imperatives, and a defined path to “salvation.” Pielke reflects on how readily much of the scientific community embraced this framing and argues that the film’s most enduring impact lies not in any single claim it made, but in how it helped recast climate science as a vehicle for moral and political advocacy. A central theme is the concept of “new apocalypticism,” drawn from the work of sociologist Michael Barkun, which Roger uses to describe how scientific authority has been repurposed to support secular narratives of impending catastrophe. He argues that An Inconvenient Truth exemplifies this shift, presenting complex scientific issues through emotionally charged imagery and moral binaries that divide the world into good and bad actors. Bryce highlights specific examples from the film—including its use of extreme weather events, historical analogies, and symbolic imagery—to argue that it relies heavily on persuasion rather than careful scientific reasoning. The episode also examines what the film got right—such as the basic science of greenhouse gas emissions and warming—while emphasizing where it misled audiences, particularly on extreme weather and the role of political will. Roger argues that the film’s biggest error was its claim that solving climate change is primarily a matter of political motivation, rather than a challenge of technological innovation and economic alignment. More broadly, the conversation explores how the blending of science and advocacy can erode public trust, especially when scientific institutions adopt partisan or moralizing narratives. (recorded April 13, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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The Problem With Peer Review (In Defense of Virology - Episode 9)

In this episode of In Defense of Virology, Bryce Nickels speaks with virologist Simon Wain-Hobson about Simon’s essay, “WHO Wordplay on COVID Origins,” which critiques the WHO SAGO report and a related Nature commentary on what is known about the origins of COVID-19. The discussion begins with SAGO’s claim that most peer-reviewed evidence supports a natural origin, while acknowledging that key intelligence and data remain unavailable. Simon argues this creates a misleading sense of certainty—presenting a conclusion while admitting critical gaps. The conversation then turns to peer review, emphasizing that it is not a final stamp of truth but the beginning of quality control. Publication does not settle questions; real scrutiny happens afterward. Both Simon and Bryce note that top journals can give findings outsized authority before they are fully validated. They argue that in politically sensitive areas like gain-of-function research and COVID origins, the publication system can shift from gatekeeping to gate blocking, limiting debate and shaping consensus prematurely. This has downstream effects, as institutions like SAGO and the Government Accountability Office rely heavily on published literature that may itself be incomplete or biased. The episode also highlights the value of work outside traditional journals, pointing to independent researchers who have contributed meaningful analyses. Dismissing such work solely for lacking peer review, Simon argues, is circular when the formal system restricts what gets published. A key theme is openness versus defensiveness. Drawing on his experiences in the HIV-era experience, Simon argues that confronting difficult hypotheses openly builds trust, while suppressing debate erodes it. This is reflected in the muted in-person response to Matt Ridley’s NIH lecture on the likely lab origin of SARS-CoV-2, which contrasts with stronger criticism expressed online. The episode concludes with potential reforms, including reducing the gatekeeping role of journals and expanding incentives for replication. Both emphasize that science functions best when dissent is allowed, evidence is openly examined, and no single institution defines the boundaries of truth. (recorded March 25, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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'Stick and Jab' (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 2)

In the second episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels speaks with climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. about his recent review of Science Under Siege (SUS), a book by Michael Mann and Peter Hotez arguing that an “anti-science movement” threatens society. Roger argues that SUS is less a serious analysis than a partisan manifesto—one that treats political disagreement, especially from Republicans, as a form of scientific heresy. A central theme is the book’s use of terms like “anti-science cabal” and “anti-science ecosystem.” He contends that these categories are vague and elastic, functioning less as analytic concepts than as labels for people the authors oppose. Rather than clarifying how science is distorted in public life, he suggests, the book collapses disagreement into moral warfare. The episode also explores the broader politicization of science. Roger argues that parts of the scientific community have grown too comfortable embracing openly partisan narratives, thereby risking science’s credibility as a public enterprise meant to serve everyone—not just one political faction. At the same time, he criticizes heavy-handed political attacks on scientific institutions, arguing that restoring trust will require greater openness, pluralism, and tolerance for disagreement. (recorded March 31, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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The Best Kept Secret in Climate Science (In Defense of Climate Change - Episode 1)

Climate change is one of the most politically charged issues in science, often framed as a choice between denial and apocalypse. In the first episode of In Defense of Climate Change, Bryce Nickels speaks with climate policy scholar Roger Pielke Jr. about why that framing distorts the realities of climate science. At the center of the conversation is the role of scenarios in climate research—what Roger calls “the best kept secret in climate science.” Climate models do not predict the future; they simulate how the climate would respond under different assumptions about how the world develops, including population growth, economic activity, and energy use. These assumptions, known as emissions scenarios, determine how much carbon dioxide is emitted and, in turn, how much warming is projected. Roger explains that many of the most widely used scenarios—particularly those developed in the early 2000s—were built around assumptions of rapidly expanding coal use. These scenarios helped produce some of the most alarming projections of future warming and came to dominate both the scientific literature and public discussion. However, the world has not followed that trajectory, and many of these scenarios are now outdated—even as they continue to be used in current research. He emphasizes that climate change is real and serious, and that scenarios are a necessary tool for understanding possible futures. But he argues that failing to distinguish between plausible and implausible scenarios—and to update those assumptions as the world changes—can distort how climate science is interpreted. The episode also examines how institutional and methodological factors can slow the updating of scenarios, allowing outdated assumptions to persist in research, media coverage, and policy discussions. (recorded March 12, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

The Experiment That Could Have Killed Billions (In Defense of Virology - Episode 8)

In the eighth episode of In Defense of Virology, distinguished virologist Simon Wain-Hobson joins host Bryce Nickels to discuss Simon’s recent essay, “You Couldn’t Make Body Bags Fast Enough.” The essay examines a largely overlooked gain-of-function influenza experiment involving the avian virus H7N1 (Sutton et al., Airborne transmission of highly pathogenic H7N1 influenza virus in ferrets, published in Journal of Virology, June 15, 2014). In that study, researchers engineered an H7N1 influenza virus capable of airborne transmission in ferrets while retaining high lethality, killing three of five infected animals. Simon argues that if a virus with similar properties spread among humans, the consequences could be catastrophic. The conversation revisits earlier gain-of-function controversies—most notably the 2012 H5N1 experiments by Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka—and asks why the H7N1 work drew far less scrutiny. Simon points to structural pressures within science—funding incentives, prestige journals, and deference to authority—that can discourage open criticism of risky research. He also discusses the role of journals in publishing studies with clear dual-use implications. Bryce and Simon also discuss the incentives that shape scientific behavior. They argue that current funding structures and the pursuit of high-profile publications can normalize increasingly risky experiments. The episode concludes with a call for clearer boundaries between “cutting-edge” research that benefits the public and “bleeding-edge” work that may put lives at risk—emphasizing that protecting the public from dangerous research requires confronting difficult questions about responsibility, transparency, and acceptable risk. (recorded March 8, 2026) Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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Anish Koka - Why Vinay Prasad Didn’t Last at the FDA

In this episode of Science from the Fringe, host Bryce Nickels speaks with cardiologist and medical commentator Dr. Anish Koka about his recent article examining the forces that led to physician-scientist Vinay Prasad’s departure from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). They discuss how Prasad’s efforts to strengthen evidentiary standards for drug approvals quickly ran up against powerful political, financial, and institutional interests. The conversation explores how his brief tenure became a case study in the difficulty of reforming institutions where scientific standards, patient desperation, political pressure, and financial incentives collide. As Anish explains, Vinay Prasad is an unusually independent thinker within academic medicine who built a reputation challenging weak evidentiary standards for drug approvals long before entering government. Once at the FDA, he attempted to raise those standards—particularly for vaccines and costly therapies approved on limited or indirect evidence. Those efforts quickly triggered backlash from pharmaceutical companies, investors, patient advocacy groups, biotech media, and political actors with stakes in the approval pipeline. Anish walks through a detailed timeline of the flashpoints that defined Prasad’s short tenure: disputes over gene therapies for rare diseases, conflicts with companies such as Sarepta, Moderna, and UniQure, and broader debates about how regulators should weigh desperate patient demand against uncertain clinical evidence. He explains how controversial trial designs—such as reliance on historical controls or small datasets—can allow extremely expensive treatments to reach the market without clear proof they improve patient outcomes. In his view, Prasad’s push to tighten evidentiary standards exposed deeper structural problems in the drug-approval system. The conversation also explores the political and media dynamics surrounding Prasad’s tenure, including accusations that he created “chaos” at the agency, personal attacks, and media leaks that intensified pressure on FDA leadership. Bryce and Anish argue that Prasad’s willingness to publicly take responsibility for regulatory decisions—and to challenge entrenched interests—made him an unusually rare figure in Washington. The episode concludes with a broader discussion about incentives in drug regulation: the influence of pharmaceutical profits, the vulnerability of rare-disease communities to exploitation, and whether meaningful reform of the FDA’s approval process is possible from within the current system. Despite Prasad’s departure, Anish argues that his brief tenure exposed important weaknesses at the intersection of science, regulation, industry, and media. (recorded March 8, 2026) Timestamps00:31 – Introducing Anish Koka and the Vinay Prasad story02:12 – Why Prasad’s FDA appointment was surprising03:20 – Prasad’s background and COVID-era break from consensus04:24 – The core issue: declining evidentiary standards at FDA06:41 – Prasad’s integrity and inevitable clash with the system09:57 – Was Prasad set up?12:08 – Why Peter Marks mattered politically13:19 – Prasad’s new vaccine approval framework14:18 – Sarepta and weak evidence in rare disease drugs17:13 – Media leaks and the role of Stat News19:33 – Marty Makary backs Prasad20:05 – “Bad politics” or principled regulator?21:58 – The Moderna dispute over vaccine evidence23:51 – Accountability and why Prasad stood out27:49 – Personal attacks and mounting pressure28:09 – The UniQure controversy30:53 – What a sham control is33:55 – The problem with historical controls36:00 – Who decides trial matching?38:00 – Media narratives of “chaos” at FDA40:19 – Political pressure from Congress42:39 – The chain of events leading to Prasad’s exit45:04 – Rare disease desperation and potential exploitation49:03 – What Prasad exposed about the FDA ecosystem50:45 – The rare disease approval loophole53:45 – Investors, incentives, and distorted evidence54:13 – Why few would want Prasad’s job54:39 – Final reflections on integrity and institutional pressure intro and outro by Tess Parks Get full access to Science From the Fringe at sciencefromthefringe.substack.com/subscribe

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