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Welcome to S2 Underground, a freelance intelligence agency that brings real time intelligence reporting to the frontline fight against terrorism, fake news, and political tyranny around the world.

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  • August 21 · 3 min

    The Wire - August 21, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 21, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FBI ARRESTS MENTALLY ILL INDIVIDUAL IN NEW YORK, WHO THEY PROMPTED TO CONDUCT A TERROR ATTACK. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING SOCIAL IMPACT OF LINDSAY CLANCY TRIAL AND POTENTIAL COPYCATS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Massachusetts: The Lindsay Clancy trial continues in Plymouth, which has resulted in localized protests in support of Clancy. For context, this murder trial is the result of Clancy murdering her three children in the family home in 2023, after her husband left her alone for a few minutes to run errands. Clancy has confessed to the murder, and is currently attempting to plead an insanity defense. Throughout the trial, the crowd of protesters supporting Clancy have grown in size outside Plymouth Superior Court, with hundreds of people lining the streets to show their support for her. Analyst Comment: Ordinarily the Clancy trial would be classified as social commentary that while a horrific murder trial, would normally be confined to the tabloids. However in this case, it's resulting in wider impact that is worth being aware of due to the future threats that are presented. Many supporters of Clancy have taken to social media to abuse their children for TikTok videos, to show their support for Clancy. These abuse videos (along with the millions of people supporting them) have increased to the point that this is now presenting real risks for copycat murders over the next few weeks. New York: Last night the DoJ announced the arrest of an alleged terrorist, who was allegedly planning to conduct an attack at the New York Capitol building. The FBI provided Jessica Bowie with $200 to buy acetone, nails, and electrical tape at Home Depot which she gave to undercover agents to create an explosive device. Once the IED (which was a fake) was provided back to Bowie for the attack, she was arrested. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The arrest in New York was not a legitimate terrorism threat, this is a very clear case of the FBI plotting a terror attack themselves and getting some idiot to go along with it. Normally there's a bit of grey area in terms of how significant an arrest actually is, but in this case this is a Biden-era-style FBI investigation, which is embarrassing to have been such an overwhelmingly significant federal case. They put multiple active surveillance teams on this individual, with dozens of agents getting involved to orchestrate every single step of the alleged attack plans. Per their own documentation, they planned the attack themselves and targeted Bowie for an entrapment operation. At no point in the indictment did the DoJ ever allege that she was in communication with actual ISIS members; she was only talking to FBI agents who encouraged her to try some haphazard attack. Per the indictment, the FBI approached her first, after she posted pro-ISIS comments/posts online, and the undercover agent had to coach her on how to make the pledge to ISIS. As for Bowie herself, she does not appear to be a part of a legitimate terrorist organization, but a rather strange version of ISIS that she alone is allegiant to. Based on the indictment, she is very clearly mentally ill, and she did not know hardly anything about the variety of Islam that ISIS is known for (nor did the FBI agents investigating her, apparently). She did not even know how to spell "jihad" correctly, and most of her communications contained Arabic words that she probably heard on the internet. To be sure, she very clearly went along with the entire plot, and did desire to cause harm. However, the DoJ is pretending like they just stopped another major terror attack, and they most certainly did not. The worst part of the entire case is that the FBI almost got her roommate killed. While this entire saga was underway, Bowie was living with her roommate, and per the indictment Bowie verbally considered stabbing her roommate to death if the roommate were to discover the fake IED that the FBI had given her. In trying to make themselves look good, the FBI's entrapment case almost resulted in their mentally ill target murdering some random person. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 20 · 4 min

    The Wire - August 19, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES HALT TO DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS WITH IRAN. DUBAI CONFIRMS YESTERDAY'S MISSILE ATTACK ORIGINATED FROM IRAN. ISRAELIS STRIKE AIRBASE IN SYRIA. TAJIK NATIONAL FLEES MURDER CONVICTION IN UNITED STATES AFTER VIRGINIA ALLOWS HIM TO OBTAIN PASSPORT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Following yesterday's missile warnings in Dubai, the culprit of the missile attack was revealed to be not the Houthis, but Iran. Two ballistic missiles were launched from within Iran, with one impacting in the Gulf, and the other landing somewhere outside the UAE. Emirati officials have stated that the missiles were not intended for them, and that the missiles were attempting to target merchant vessels within the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the UAE has allegedly halted trade and financial transactions with Iran, until further notice. Analyst Comment: Prior to the war, Dubai was Tehran's gateway to the west, and served as a major hub for trade, but especially for banking. If the Emirs have indeed shut down Iran's access to financial markets, this will probably have more significant impact than it seems at first. Syria: Last night Israeli forces conducted airstrikes at Al Duhur Airbase, targeting the runway and several maintenance facilities at the airfield. Analyst Comment: This is a message to Turkey. Turkish forces have been at this airfield for a few months, trying to fix the airstrip enough for it to open once again, which would in turn allow for the recreation of the Syrian Air Force, but also another place for Turkish forces to run operations out of. The Israelis striking this runway is probably an effort to put the Syrians back in their box, and also inflame tensions with the Turks even more, to prevent their expansion into Israel's back yard. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation, the energy crisis continues to worsen as gas prices climb steadily higher. This morning, the national average for diesel rose to over $5.50, as reflected by the current global diesel shortage. This afternoon bond yields dropped after the Treasury Department announced that the US will be doubling the repurchases of debt. Washington D.C. - Yesterday President Trump stated that no diplomatic efforts with Iran are taking place, sharply reversing the months of prior rhetoric that the White House has become legendary for. Up until this statement, the official stance has been that indirect talks are occurring, and that Iran frequently calls the White House "wanting to make a deal". Yesterday's statement by President Trump is a very sharp reversal regarding the diplomatic efforts in the region. Virginia: Yesterday local authorities revealed that a Tajik man fled the United States last month following his detention in a mental facility. In 2019, Abdulloi Toshpulodzoda stabbed his landlord to death, but was found not guilty by reason of insanity in 2022. He was sentenced to detention in a mental facility, before being deemed to be a candidate for early release last year. While serving his sentence, he was allowed by the prosecution to visit the Tajik Embassy in Washington D.C. where he was allowed to obtain a passport for his home country of Tajikistan. He was also allowed to have prison vacation time, when he could have two-day vacations outside the detention facility. During one of these vacation slots on July 6th, Toshpulodzoda used his passport to flee the United States. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Utah, overnight more details have come to light regarding Monday's funeral shooting. The lead suspect at the moment is Afuhia Masiu Manatau, who pulled out a gun and attempted to kill an unidentified person at the funeral. At some point during the shootout, his son Tusi took his father's gun and continued to shoot at members of the Angilau family. Concerning the alleged victims, a correction to yesterday's report is needed as the fatality in this case is not the same person who was previously convicted of murder. The victim was Vilisoni Angilau (aged 18), and Vilisoni Angilau (aged 33) was previously convicted of crimes related to gang affiliation. Same exact name, same exact area, same exact family, same exact affiliation with the Ward, but different people. Turns out, the 18-year-old who was killed yesterday is also affiliated with the Tongan Crips, as evidenced by confirmed gang members and shotcallers mourning his death on Facebook. Local Tongans are claiming the victim is not affiliated with the gang, but social media posts indicate this is not true. The reason for why this matters is due to the elevated potential for a gang war to kick off, if it hasn't done so already. Clearly local police thought the same at the time, as they rolled way harder than they needed to in order to protect the hospital. Gang violence is very likely to continue to escalate within Utah over the next few weeks, and this is going to affect more people than just those in the gang. When the only Level 1 Trauma Center for hundreds of miles is locked down because hordes of Tongan Crips are trying to break down the doors after a gang shooting, this becomes more of a substantial concern than just some random gang war. Even in the legendary gang epicenters around the country, local hospitals don't have to worry about literally being overrun as if they were a forward-deployed military base in a foreign land. But in Salt Lake City, this is now a genuine concern that is all brought about by a demographic that comprises less than one percent of the population. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 19 · 8 min

    The Wire - August 18, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: KINETIC TARGETING CONTINUES WITHIN MIDDLE EAST AS HOUTHIS LAUNCH MISSILES TOWARD DUBAI. TONGAN CRIP THREAT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN SALT LAKE CITY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Iran struck two more ships in the Strait of Hormuz last night, continuing the trend of the past couple of weeks. This morning, the UKMTO retroactively admitted to a merchant vessel being struck on August 15th, with the ship sustaining damage and one crew casualty. This afternoon, Houthi forces conducted a ballistic missile strike on the UAE, with missile warnings being issued in Dubai, for the first time since May. No locals reported witnessing any interception, and government officials stated that one missile splashed down in the Gulf, and another landed outside their territory. Analyst Comment: On the rhetoric front, this morning President Trump continued claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz, posting a graphic which claims the Strait is now U.S. territory. Even though waterways traditionally can't be claimed as land territory, and while this may just be a more lighthearted meme, at the other end of the spectrum this could be more serious. If the White House is indeed serious about making a territorial declaration of some kind, this could be an effort to move the goalposts to allow for the use of more substantial weapons. If Hormuz is America, then the US can claim that Iran is attacking the homeland. Of course, this logic is a stretch at best, but it's exactly the kind of reasoning that would make sense for the White House to rely on at this stage in the war. -HomeFront- Utah: One suspect has been arrested in conjunction with yesterday's events in Salt Lake City. Afuhia Masiu Manatau was arrested for his role in yesterday's shooting at the Tongan funeral in Kearns. During the funeral, a fight broke out among the congregation, between his 17-year-old son, and several others. During the fight, Manatau gave a firearm to his son, which resulted in the son attempting to murder the others. Manatau's son (the shooter) was shot in the chest during the engagement, and Manatau himself has been arrested. Analyst Comment: Concerning casualties, so far one fatality was reported as a result of the funeral shooting. The victim has been identified as Vilisoni (Soni) Angilau, a confirmed Tongan Crip who was recently released from prison after murdering a member of a rival gang in 2013. Soni Angilau's immediate relative, Naisa Angilau, was also recently released from prison for a completely different shooting as well, after he attempted to kill a gas station clerk in 2009. Of note, Soni's brother Siale also met a violent end as he was also shot and killed during a high-profile shooting that took place inside the courtroom during his trial. Siale Angilau was shot and killed by federal Marshals after attempting to stab a witness to death during his trial for racketeering back in 2014. All of these family members have an extensive presence on social media, and all self-identify as Tongan Crips. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Utah, additional details are helpful for understanding how serious yesterday's shooting actually was, especially considering the long history of similar murders. Despite assurances to the contrary, Intermountain Medical Center remained locked down throughout the evening last night, as the threats to the hospital remained constant. Many non-essential employees were escorted out of the hospital by SWAT, and patients' medical procedures were canceled due to the security threat. Intermountain Public Relations officials issued statements claiming that everything was fine and that there was no threat to the hospital, however employees within the hospital confirmed that these statements were not true. Intercepted radio traffic from 911 dispatch also confirms that the reason for the overwhelming police response at the hospital, was due to the Tongan Crip Gang attempting to breach the entrance to the Emergency department. At least one employee was assaulted and wounded in the ER, and a large crowd of Tongans also attempted to break through the Emergency Room entrance on the south side of Unit 4. After this breach attempt, local authorities responded in force, with SWAT officers responding immediately to reinforce the hospital and prevent the facility from being overrun. Snipers were deployed to the rooftops, and at least two Bearcat armored vehicles were posted at the Emergency Department to secure a perimeter around the facility. Concerning future threats, the circumstances of yesterday's funeral shooting are still unclear, with much of the eyewitness testimony being verifiably false as gang members seek to cover up the crime. The main question is whether or not this will result in a wider gang war, and right now the answer to that question is not so clear. The Tongan Crip Gang is known to engage in mutual combat within the gang itself, as rival factions settle internal disputes with violence and murder. Funerals are a common way for hostile TCG factions to meet up, and tensions flare. However, the Tongans also have many rivals locally which might also be inclined to stoke up a gang war. The TCG originally had a foothold in Inglewood, California, where the gang achieved it's extremely brutal reputation. After expanding this foothold to Salt Lake City, the TCG became one of the most legendarily violent gangs in the entire nation. Though small in numbers, they make up for their lack of footsoldiers with sheer violence. Even so, many locals prefer to call them "nice" and ignore this brutality, due to the affiliation this gang has within facilities owned by the LDS Church. This gang is known to murder people randomly without a second thought, and despite Tongans being less than one percent of the population of Utah, they make up over 13% of all gang member affiliation in the region. For those who want to make the argument that "not all Tongans" are causing problems, unfortunately in Salt Lake City specifically, this does not appear to be the case based on the case history and preponderance of evidence. During the Tongan Crip funeral murder at an LDS Ward back in January...not a single churchgoer came forward to name the killer. 100% of the congregants at the Ward where the murder took place, refused to speak to the police or provide a statement regarding what they saw. Police set up an anonymous hotline to protect witnesses, but among the hundreds of Tongans that witnessed that shooting, not a single person came forward to testify and the shooters were eventually charged based on evidence of the murder plans being found on their phones. Even the small handful of Tongans who are not documented gang members are extremely loyal to tribal allegiances; quite literally every single Tongan with a social media presence in Salt Lake County has expressed support for their guy who attempted to murder a gas station clerk with a shotgun. No one within this diaspora has condemned the actions of the man who's funeral even resulted in further bloodshed. The Tongan community has not tried to distance themselves from the frequent murders that are conducted within their areas, and most of the Tongan Wards within Salt Lake close ranks around those who commit violent murders. Concerning yesterday's shootings, posts on social media indicate that other family members of yesterday's deceased have been observed flashing Tongan Crip Gang signs and generally confirming their gang affiliation, specifically within the Tongan Wards. On Facebook, most of the Salt Lake Tongans don't wish each other a "Happy B-Day"...they change it to "C-Day" because the letter "B" is too closely affiliated with their arch rivals...the Bloods. This is a callback to their Inglewood origins...many of the TCG's rivals are much the same as in California. The Rose Park Bloods are their main external adversary within Salt Lake, as both gangs have been expanding into each other's turf. In the same area, the Rose Park Taliban (a gang formed from the children of refugees from the Middle East) also maintains some presence, and is allied with the Bloods. Back in March, a Rose Park Taliban member tried to murder a liquor store employee in Taylorsville (near Tongan Crip territory), so gang violence in southwest Salt Lake specifically from these gangs is a constant. As yesterday's "victim" had previously killed a member of the Baby Regulators gang, it's possible that this was a revenge killing that was unrelated to the other Angilau who's funeral was being held at the time. As a result of this complicated web of alliances and relationships between extremely violent gangs, more violence is expected. Despite the grass skirts, barbeques, and disarming smiles, most of these people are killers, and the killing is only likely to escalate. Since one person was killed during the funeral shooting, the funeral for that person will undoubtedly be another opportunity for another shooting, as the cycle of violence and vengeance continues. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 18 · 6 min

    The Wire - August 17, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS STAGNANT. WHITE HOUSE SIGNALS SHIFT AWAY FROM PACOM AS PRESIDENT TRUMP ATTEMPTS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH NORTH KOREA. TONGAN CRIP GANG SHOOTING REPORTED AT FUNERAL IN SALT LAKE CITY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation remains much the same, no major changes over the weekend. Iran did not conduct any major strikes over the past few days, and the Houthis have also not engaged any Saudi oil refineries since last week. Otherwise the situation remains as before. South Korea: Over the weekend President Trump announced a significant change to the American diplomatic position regarding the Korean Peninsula. Due to South Korea not participating in hostilities during the Gulf War, President Trump has ordered the United States to reduce American participation in ROK military exercises. Analyst Comment: This is a big deal, but one that has been boiling since the Gulf War began. Pinning American diplomatic efforts to whether or not nations supported us during the war highlights the priority the White House is placing on the conflict. Supplies and missile defenses have been taken from PACOM for months now, and this halting of joint exercises with South Korea is the latest development in the de-prioritization of all operational theaters in order to support the war. Similarly, the other effect of de-prioritizing South Korea, is to improve relations with North Korea, which in turn might lead to another round of diplomatic talks soon. -HomeFront- Michigan: More details have come to light regarding a series of small arms attacks carried out a few days ago. On Friday, authorities responded to a private residence in Missaukee County, where a mass shooting had occurred. 3x deceased victims and 1x severely wounded victim were located at the residence, with the suspect having fled the scene. At the scene, the immediate investigation resulted in the discovery of another fatality located at a different residence adjacent to the initial shooting site. The suspect was identified as Chad Hickman, and a large-scale manhunt was conducted throughout the area. Some time later, Hickman's vehicle was located near Whitlock Lake, where the remains of one additional victim and the deceased suspect were discovered. Analyst Comment: So far, no motive has been disclosed for this attack, but right now this looks like a domestic incident. The suspect's sister is reportedly among the casualties, and Hickman had also recently been involved in a messy divorce. Utah: This morning a riot and subsequent mass shooting was reported at an LDS Ward in Salt Lake City. Local authorities initially responded to the 13th Ward in Kearns, after a street fight involving 80+ people broke out during a Tongan cultural event and funeral. At some point during the fray, several people were shot as a state of mutual combat broke out between suspected members of the Tongan Crip Gang, and local rivals. After the initial shooting at the funeral, the wounded suspected gang members were transported to Intermountain Medical Center, where another skirmish possibly broke out in the parking area. Several reports of shots-fired were issued, and the hospital was locked down throughout the afternoon. No details have been provided on this second incident, or the status of the reported shootings at the hospital. However, ambulances are being diverted away from Intermountain Health, and armored police vehicles are reportedly parked at the facility providing security. Analyst Comment: These shootings are directly linked to a different shooting. This was the funeral for Ofa'tangikivaha Angilau, a Tongan man who was neutralized by Good Samaritans two weeks ago. On August 7th, Angilau attempted to purchase alcohol without showing ID at the Holiday Oil gas station in Riverton. After the clerk denied his purchase, he left the store and returned with a shotgun, and attempted to murder the clerk. Before Angilau could bring the shotgun to bear, he was promptly shot dead by two different bystanders in the store. His funeral was this morning, and due to the shooting breaking out during the funeral, this retroactively indicates that Angilau was probably affiliated with the Tongan Crip Gang. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For wider context, the Tongan community has a major foothold in Salt Lake County, and have been running operations inside LDS Wards throughout the city for some time. The LDS Church has organized several different Tongan Stakes (districts) which serve as the administrative hierarchy solely for immigrants from the Pacific island of Tonga. Around 13,000 Tongans live throughout the Salt Lake County area, which is roughly a quarter of the entire Tongan population in the United States, and as a result the LDS Church has provided substantial resources for this community, including a few dozen cultural centers and dedicated Wards just for Tongans. At these facilities, no English is spoken and even the websites are in the Tongan language. Over time, the Tongan Crip Gang has emerged as a major threat to the local area. In many cases, the Tongan Wards within Salt Lake City are not really houses of worship, but actually safehouses for the Tongan Crip Gang, as demonstrated by gang colors being placed all around these structures, only gang members attending these wards, and the frequent shootings at these facilities. Due to the gang seeking refuge within LDS churches...in the heartland of where the LDS Church was founded...this rarely gets mentioned by local mainstream media sources, which in many cases have either been financially motivated (or even outright ordered) to ignore this major gang threat. Most outsiders are rather shocked to learn that a violent gang can not just occupy houses of worship, but be invited in to use the facilities to continue their criminal enterprises. But that's what's been happening in Salt Lake City for a long time, and as unpleasant as it is, this must be acknowledged as the body count keeps rising. The Tongan Crip problem has become so bad that local police pre-stage at Tongan funerals, because they assess with a high degree of certainty that there is going to be a shootout at some point. This morning's shooting is the second shooting this year involving a funeral for a Tongan Crip Gang member; back in January, nearly the exact same event took place. Tongan Crips were having a funeral for one of their leaders, and a rival gang showed up to conduct a shooting in the parking lot. This morning's shooting occurred under nearly identical circumstances. Also during both shootings, upwards of a dozen officers were already staged at these Wards with rifles, prepared for the active shooting, knowing that a small arms engagement would be occurring at some point. Nevertheless, nobody wants to ruffle any feathers when a faith-based organization is involved, even if that organization is knowingly and deliberately allowing a gang to operate within their facilities, so these shootings (but especially the Tongan Crip angle) will continue to be ignored by local media, politicians, and Church leadership alike. However, both today's shooting, and the prior one in January took place in close proximity to schools, where children could have been wounded or killed by the gunfights in the parking lots, so this is not merely an internal Church problem. Further investigation will be needed to truly determine how widespread the problem is, but this is probably more significant than most people realize, and pretending everything is fine is resulting in clear and present dangers being allowed to threaten innocent citizens. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 15 · 4 min

    The Wire - August 14, 2026

    //The Wire//2000Z August 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE SHOT DOWN OVER LATVIA. WASHINGTON CSG STEAMING WEST TO REPLACE LINCOLN CSG IN ARABIAN SEA. IRANIAN STRIKES CONTINUE IN HORMUZ. WHITE HOUSE AUTHORIZES CIVILIAN COMPANIES TO BEGIN OFFENSIVE CYBER OPERATIONS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: This morning at least one strike on a merchant vessel was reported in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO published two separate nearly-identical reports under two different reporting numbers, 111-26 and 112-26, both of which took place in the same area. Analyst Comment: Iranian sources claim that these vessels were struck by submarine drones, which (if true) would be the first kind of attack conducted so far during this war. Iran absolutely has this capability, though it is probably more limited to the areas closer to the Iranian coastline. The UKMTO chart provided for the location of both attacks does plot the targeting effort closer to the Iranian coastline than most other attacks, but so far no comment has been made regarding the attack method yet. Red Sea/HOA: This afternoon another series of strikes was reported between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with the latter conducting another missile strike on an Aramco refinery/processing facility in Najran City, near the Yemeni border. A large fire was reported at this facility following this strike, and Saudi forces have conducted various strikes around Yemen in retaliation. Latvia: This morning NATO aircraft shot down a suspected drone over the Balvi region, near the village of Rugaji. Latvia stated that the incident was a stray drone that entered their airspace due to Russian electronic warfare measures. Only one drone was detected, which was engaged by fighter aircraft. Analyst Comment: This is a tacit admission that the drone was probably Ukrainian, continuing the now long-standing trend of off-course drones entering the airspace of third-party nations. With both Russia and Ukraine sending drone waves comprising of hundreds of drones during each attack, the high failure rate on both sides has resulted in dozens of runaway drone incidents throughout the continent over the past few years. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Late last night, President Trump signed an Executive Memorandum aimed at combatting cybercrime. The very first section of this order is to effectively privatize offensive cyberattacks on foreign actors. The order outlines a 60-day time limit for establishing a deconfliction process to coordinate attacks carried out by private companies versus those conducted by military forces. The memorandum specifically states that operations resulting in Critical Outcomes (i.e. operations which kill people or are classified as Use of Force) are not authorized. Analyst Comment: This EO is a big deal, as it essentially is a Letter of Marque for private companies to conduct military actions against foreign nationstates in the cyber realm. While this seems cutting-edge and forward thinking in terms of the ever-evolving battlespace...this removes a lot of protections for civilian companies when it comes to warfare. When civilian entities are authorized to engage in offensive military action against a foreign nation, they become lawful combatants. The caveat which states that companies can't kill people is not likely to result in much difference to any actor targeted under this program, and as it stands, any company that participates in this order will be a valid military target which will be targeted by foreign adversaries. In short, if companies want to play ball, they can now do so, but major cyberattacks on civilian targets are going to skyrocket over the next few weeks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, several logistical and leadership shakeups have settled in throughout the region. Within Iran, six new commanders have been officially promoted to new positions throughout the General Staff, most of whom are younger hardliners who are of the mind to continue the war. These promotions include Ahmad Vahidi, who has been promoted to the Commander in Chief of the IRGC. On the American side, the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN CSG is planned to move off station when she is replaced by the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON CSG within a few days. This relief comes a few days after reports emerged regarding the deteriorating conditions onboard the LINCOLN. Over the past few days, reports of multiple sailors within this strike group attempting to take their own lives have hit the media, which CENTCOM has flatly denied. However, one day after these reports started circulating, the WASHINGTON was observed steaming through the Strait of Malacca. The LINCOLN was officially last reported in port in Guam on December 11th, 2025 and has not conducted a single port call since that time. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 15 · 22 min

    Intel Update - August 15 - Guns of August

    Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Strategic Concerns 01:36 - All Quiet on Drone Front 03:12 - French Fries 04:03 - Fuel Crisis 06:51 - Where's the Beef? 08:17 - The Bounty 13:05 - Houth-i of Cards 17:12 - Canary in the Coal Mine 20:43 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • August 14 · 4 min

    The Wire - August 13, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EXPLOSION REPORTED AT ITALIAN MUNITIONS FACTORY. WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY RESIGNS. IEA REPORT CONFIRMS OIL CRISIS INCREASES IN SEVERITY WORLDWIDE. PRESIDENT PUTIN VISITS CONTROVERSIAL ISLAND CHAIN IN FAR EAST.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Italy: This morning an explosion was reported at the KNDS munitions factory near the town of Colleferro. This facility produced artillery rounds and solid-fuel propellants for the Ukrainian military. No casualties have been reported, as the explosion took place during the summertime vacation season, when nobody was working at the factory. The cause of the blast has not yet been disclosed. Analyst Comment: Industrial accidents happen all the time, but it's not everyday that a factory making explosives for Ukraine suffers such a catastrophic blast, with no prior warning, and with nobody actually at the plant. Reading between the lines, most assumptions are that this might have been malign action related to the war in Ukraine, however nothing has been released regarding that theory yet. Far East: Overnight, Russian President Vladimir Putin conducted a surprise visit to the Kuril Islands, an island chain north of Japan which has a hotly-contested history originating back with World War Two. President Putin visited Iturup Island for the first time, and mostly conducted tours of the facilities, including a fish processing factory, a school, and a hospital. During the visit, Putin specifically mentioned the Japanese sanctions on Russia, which were imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, stating that Russia has no grievances against Japan. Putin also directly mentioned the fact that in Japan's latest military publications, Russia is classified as a source of major threat, which Putin denied. Analyst Comment: This sparsely-populated island chain is just north of Japan, and was initially gifted to the Soviet Union during the 1945 Yalta agreement (though Japan disputes the legality of this). In practice, Russia dominates the four main islands, and a few dozen of the smaller uninhabited islands. Putin visiting a small island north of Japan is a major signal that Russia is interested in what's going on in their backyard, and that their far eastern regions are certainly not forgotten. This visit was deliberately intended to pressure Japan to reexamine their sanctions, as well as to serve as a not-so-subtle reminder, that mainland Russia is much closer to Tokyo than the mainland United States is. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her resignation yesterday evening, which will come into effect at the end of the month. The reason for her resignation has been stated to be personal, to spend time with her family. Her replacement has not been officially announced, and most mainstream media is speculating that a replacement will not be named until after the midterms. Analyst Comment: The real reason for her resignation is probably for personal reasons, but vastly more personal reasons than anyone knows. The tabloids are running some rather juicy theories and rumors at the moment, most of which are related to the continuing scandal originating from the Air Force One plane swap incident in Turkey last month, and the details of who was selected to join the President onboard the covert plane...and who was left on the decoy. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, the International Energy Agency's report for the month of August was published, which provides more fidelity on the energy production throughout the Middle East. Based on the IEA's report, the situation is dire and now the sheer lack of oil is a problem. Even with all of the efforts to open the Strait, and with the brief ceasefire which resulted in a surge of tankers (before the Strait closed again), we still have a global shortage of 8.3 million bbl/day. This is roughly 8% of the entire planet's oil demand, which remains offline due to the war. As the energy crisis is firmly an emergency situation at this point, the biggest impact to the American people right now will take the form of Diesel prices rising higher, until eventual shortages begin. When the shortages will begin, is anyone's guess, but since the war has dragged on for so long, the second and third order effects are already well underway. Right now, the problem is not just a shortage of crude...it's also a problem of getting the right type of crude, to the right type of refineries. The complicated mess of secondary and tertiary disruptions has resulted in bottlenecks along the whole process, and since Hormuz, the BAM, Suez, and the Black Sea are all negatively affected in some manner by effectively three wars, roughly 20% of all global maritime diesel exports are effectively cut off. As a result, the biggest immediate problem for the U.S. is refining diesel at the scale needed to avoid shortages, which is why many people have been surprised to see diesel prices starting to creep up again over the past couple of weeks nationwide. The US can turn the tap and drain the SPR all we want, but that will not solve the immediate problem of the dwindling diesel supply in the short term. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 12 · 5 min

    The Wire - August 12, 2026

    //The Wire//1800Z August 12, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: OIL CRISIS CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AS STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE DROPS BELOW 300 MILLION BARRELS. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS COMPLICATED, SHIPPING REMAINS STAGNANT. DOMESTIC VIOLENCE RESULTS IN MURDERS AT DAYCARE IN MINNESOTA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Around the region the war remains as before, with no major strikes being reported overnight. The war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has continued to increase in complexity following the Houthi strikes on the Jazan refinery last week. Saudi Arabia has stepped up efforts to fund and supply the official Yemeni government, which was outcast by the Houthis capturing and holding the capital city years ago. Analyst Comment: For the past decade, the Saudis have tried to undermine the Houthi control of Yemen by funding the exiled government forces which still control pockets of influence around the country. A few days ago, a strike was reported in the city of Mocha in Yemen, which was originally reported as being of Saudi origin. Turns out, it was the Houthis themselves striking the sector of the city that still remains in government control, targeting a collection of Saudi advisors which were working with the Yemeni government. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning a suspicious device was discovered in the vicinity of the Engine Company 20 fire station. One device comprised of a thermos container with wires wrapped around it was discovered by authorities, prompting a lockdown of the area. EOD responded to the scene and stated that the device was not a threat. Minnesota: This morning a stabbing attack was reported at a child care facility in Hopkins. Local authorities state that two adults and one child were stabbed at Brown Bear Childcare, a private residence converted to a daycare. All three individuals are reported deceased. Throughout the day, official sources have indicated that this was a domestic violence incident between the owners of the daycare, which resulted in one of the adults murdering the other, before murdering their child, and then themselves. The attack was witnessed by six other children, as well as a parent who had arrived at the residence to drop off their child. Analyst Comment: This attack took place at 236 Tyler Ave North. The business itself is registered with the state and has an active childcare license, with no violations or concerns being readily available online. Reviews are very positive, and the business appeared to be a small and wholesome daycare run out of a private residence. Prior to the murders this morning, this address had been listed on a local garage sale page. The listing claiming that the daycare had been scheduled to close at the end of the month, but how (or if) this fits in is unclear at the moment. As a result, this horrifically brutal attack is very out of the ordinary for Hopkins, and further analysis will be required to determine why this happened. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Concerning the impact of the Gulf War on global energy markets, the situation is still desperate. Oil transits through Hormuz are very minimal, with the NAVCENT-run reporting sources no longer publicly disclosing all of the Iranian strikes on tanker vessels. Many observers visually seeing a burning hull on the horizon, or crude oil washing ashore, is about as "confirmed" as it can get, and over the past few weeks several strikes have taken place that have not been reported by the UKMTO. In terms of what this is doing to the oil markets, Hormuz is back to very minimal oil flows. The constant Houthi targeting down in the Red Sea region has also resulted in the Saudi's cutting production at many oil terminals and processing facilities, and the Omanis are quietly trying to export more oil from their terminals which bypass the Strait...efforts which get derailed when a tanker gets struck by a drone/cruise missle. Where we go from here is hard to say, but the situation has been slow to develop. If a person is watching a car crash in slow motion, and it takes 6 months for the impact, people get bored. This appears to be what's happened as this war has dragged on for almost half a year. This has resulted in complacency, even though the overall situation is incredibly serious. The United States has continued to drain the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at a breakneck pace, to the point that we are approaching the physical limits of how much oil can be withdrawn from storage. This oil is not really being processed within the US, but rather sold on the international market so as to keep the price of oil artificially low globally. Last week, the SPR dropped to 298.7 million barrels of oil in storage, all total. This is the first time that the SPR has dipped this low since the 1980's, when the demand was 20-30% lower than it is today. More broadly, this is also a major milestone in terms of how close we're getting to tank bottom. There is debate regarding how low the SPR can be drawn down. A common figure over the years has been that the US can theoretically drain the SPR down to 70 million barrels. There is also a legal floor as well, with 42 USC § 6241 mandating that the SPR cannot be drawn below 252 million barrels for national security reasons. Of course, this is a law that can be reliably ignored by both the White House and Congress itself, but it is a number to work from...and we're getting close to it. Last year the Government Accountability Office conducted a large-scale study on the SPR, which found that due to infrastructure degradation over the years, the entire system can only pump out a fraction of what it was previously capable of. The report did not explicitly state the magic number of how low we can go, but the report did state that regardless of where the bottom of the tank actually is, we can only pump it out at a rate that is 61% of what it was designed for. This means that not only are our tanks scraping bottom, but we are also limited in how fast we can drain what's left. Like a broken record, the story has constantly repeated since the war began...demand remains the same, but supply is down. The basics of that fact can only be concealed, manipulated, and talked-down for so long before supply itself runs out. As the SPR cruises past the 300 million barrel milestone, more motivation is stacking up to re-enter the diplomatic phase once again, before the energy crisis gets much worse. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 11 · 5 min

    The Wire - August 11, 2026

    //The Wire//1700Z August 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DETAILS EMERGE REGARDING LAST MONTH'S SECURITY INCIDENT INVOLVING AIR FORCE ONE. MULTIPLE OIL SPILLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD AROUND PERSIAN GULF AND ARABIAN SEA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight the targeting of merchant shipping continued, with both Iranian and American strikes on commercial vessels. Iran struck an oil tanker sometime over the past 24 hours, which resulted in an oil spill which washed up on the shores of Qeshm island this morning. In the Gulf of Oman, the United States struck a different merchant vessel for violating the American blockade. Analyst Comment: Similarly, a separate oil spill has continued to expand in Omani waters, after unclear circumstances (i.e. some sort of attack) led to an explosion onboard the M/T CAROLINE BEZENGI two months ago. Since that time, this vessel has been adrift until she ran aground in an Omani nature preserve. This morning Oman announced that the subsequent oil spill now covers roughly 150 square miles. Red Sea/HOA: The Houthis struck another vessel in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait last night. Analyst Comment: Locals claim this vessel was the M/V TIHAMAH a smaller regional containership that the Houthis had suspected of carrying out weapons shipments from Saudi Arabia, to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. If this is true, this would not be surprising, but every ship that gets struck in this Strait increases apprehension among commercial shipping companies. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Overnight, more details were released regarding the security incident affecting Air Force One during President Trump's visit to Turkey last month. At the time, a brief scandal emerged after President Trump switched from the newer Air Force One to the older airframe, due to an unidentified security incident of some kind. More specifically, the threat involved the newer Air Force One airframe allegedly not having sufficient missile defense systems, due to having been pressed into service too quickly for the appropriate countermeasures to be installed. However yesterday, more of the truth came out. President Trump actually pulled a double-switch. Instead of boarding the older legacy Air Force One, the Secret Service used a catering van to covertly move the President to an Air Force C-32A (one of the administrative backups that frequently accompanies AF1). From there, both aircraft flew to the United Kingdom (with President Trump's actual aircraft flying completely blacked out and not emitting any radio signals), where the President transitioned back to the newer Air Force 1 airframe for the trip back to the United States. Many people who are not familiar with the world of counterterrorism may think this is a super cool, James Bond-like operation that fooled those pesky journalists. However, this incident proves that a clear and present danger to the President existed, and was significant enough to warrant extreme measures. At the time, the White House claimed that the switch to a different plane was conducted out of an abundance of caution. Now, we find out that he was actually secretly switched to a third plane, and smuggled into that plane in a catering van. From the perspective of executive security, placing the principle in unorthodox situations like this to ensure security is a last-ditch method...a tactic that is utilized when the danger isreal enough to outweigh any inconvenience to the protectee. The Secret Service resorting to cramming the President in the back of a catering van is a tactic that has been used in the past, but only under extreme circumstances. Bill Clinton allegedly used this trick top avoid the press during the Monica Lewinsky scandal, and Joe Biden was also suspected of having used this tactic when he had trouble climbing the AF1 staircase a few years ago. As it stands, President Trump's use of this technique is one of the first public uses for security reasons. Perhaps the most entertaining aspect to the story is that President Trump left the media on the plane that was threatened with being shot down. Most of these journalists, even in retrospect, don't seem to realize that they were they were bait. More broadly, this incident is yet another peek behind the curtain regarding the shocking levels of security that President Trump is now surrounded by. A few days ago President Trump was spotted playing golf mere feet away from an Avenger Surface-to-Air Missile defense system, which had been set up near the fairway of Trump's golf course in Bedminster while the President played a few rounds. Similarly, a few months ago, the President quietly began having Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft holding station near him at all times, just in case enemy fighter jets or cruise missiles enter the airspace. To be sure, this security is very likely necessary, but therein lies the problem: If the President now requires a SAM system to be parked mere feet away from him during an ad hoc trip that only takes a few hours...this is indicative of how serious the threats are within the homeland. Even the notoriously paranoid Vladimir Putin, who got his start in the KGB and who's bedroom in the Kremlin has been targeted (so far unsuccessfully) by Ukrainian drones, doesn't travel around with an AWACS aircraft at all times. This is also very unlikely to be a case of President Trump himself being scared, and fortifying his surroundings as his predecessor did. President Trump is not a military man, and he would not have known to ask for a SAM system, and it's highly unlikely that Trump even knows that an AWACS follows him around everywhere now. Unfortunately, all of these extremely substantial security practices are probably not an overreaction, but likely a response to legitimate and very specific threats. What's more, the security practices that we visibly observe are not the countermeasures that would be effective against the standard lone-wolf terrorist or the standard variety of screeching lunatic who might want to target the President. These countermeasures are only for countering nationstate-level threats. In Turkey, for instance, the only entities that could have targeted President Trump's plane are national-level actors. Similarly, the use of an Avenger SAM system implies that the threat might be so quick to materialize, that the standard Combat Air Patrol that is mere minutes away...might not be fast enough of a response. If any other President had been observed chipping the ball onto the green with a SAM system parked in the rough just off the fairway...the American people would be panic buying cases of water and digging a bunker in their back yard by now. But because a level of tension that surpasses the height of the Cold War has become normalized, the general population barely notices. As long as Netflix works and Doritos are on store shelves, the fact that the United States government has rapidly increased steps to prepare for major, nationstate-level attacks within the homeland will continue to go unnoticed by most. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 10 · 23 min

    Intel Update - August 8 - Hard Days

    Twin Falls Incident Report: https://youtu.be/bej58mQ3smY Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Strategic Concerns 01:08 - Water Supply Cyberattacks 07:15 - Spokane Fires 11:28 - Twin Falls Shooting 19:33 - Germany 22:41 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Odysee: https://odysee.com/@S2Underground:7 Gab: https://gab.com/S2underground Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • August 10 · 2 min

    The Wire - August 10, 2026

    //The Wire//1700Z August 10, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKE STRIKES COLOMBIA. WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. BRITISH MOD ALLEGEDLY INVESTIGATING VULNERABILITIES WITH NEWLY-PURCHASED DRONE BOAT FLEET.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation continues as before, with routine strikes being carried out over the weekend. Iran has continued to strike merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with daily targeting efforts being reported for about a week. Overnight, a tanker vessel was struck in the Strait, with the resulting fire being visible from land. Red Sea/HOA: The Houthis have been active over the past few days, conducting low-level strikes against the Saudi staging areas along the border region with Yemen. More significantly, the Houthis have also struck the Jazan refinery again, with the Saudis targeting the port of Mocha in Yemen. France: As wildfires have continued to spread around the nation, French authorities have announced the arrest of over 420x individuals on charges of arson, at least 166x of which are individuals claiming to be minors who admitted to deliberately starting fires. United Kingdom: This morning the Telegraph published a leak from within the Ministry of Defense, pertaining to the new K3 Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) that have been purchased by the Royal Marines. The leak alleges that some components within the drone boat fleet are made in China, and actually "phone home" to data centers back in China. The Ministry of Defense has denied any security vulnerabilities, but an emergency audit has been announced to investigate the matter. Analyst Comment: Having a foreign adversary contribute to any part of the production chain for highly secret and cutting-edge military technology is a suboptimal decision. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: This morning an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.4 was reported in the western districts of Colombia, which resulted in infrastructure damage throughout the region. The city of Cali was hardest hit, with many structures collapsing or otherwise suffering major damage. So far, roughly 20x fatalities have been reported outright, but the true scale of the damage will take some time to determine due to the remote nature of many affected villages. There is not a lot of information on how bad the damage is, and most of what has circulated are videos showing the damage, or other first hand reports. At the time of this report, this is a developing story, and details are likely to change as more information becomes available. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 7 · 3 min

    The Wire - August 6, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 6, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL OUTAGE RESULTS IN MINNEAPOLIS CENTER DIVERTING MOST AIRCRAFT TO OTHER SECTORS. NEW CDC DIRECTOR CONFIRMED BY SENATE. IRAN REPORTEDLY STRIKES TWO TANKERS IN HORMUZ.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Iranian targeting of merchant vessels has continued, with two more vessels being struck this afternoon in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian sources claim that they struck the M/T NISSOS KEA (heading outbound) and the M/T NISSOS KEROS (heading inbound) while the two vessels were being escorted by the United States through the southern Omani route. Analyst Comment: These two strikes have not yet been confirmed by the UKMTO, but reporting regarding strikes on ships is ironically hit-or-miss at this point. If these ships were being escorted at the time, these strikes would be quite important, but this detail is the most questionable at this time. What is certain is that both vessels shut off their transponders when they got close to the Strait, and the status of both vessels is not known. -HomeFront- Minnesota: This afternoon all flights at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport were grounded for several hours, due to a communications issue with Air Traffic Control. Most aircraft diverted to different air control sectors while Minneapolis Center was down, and many delays were reported nationwide due to the cascading affects of an outage in a busy air corridor. The exact cause of the outage has not yet been disclosed. Washington D.C. - The FAA is investigating air traffic control procedures at Ronald Reagan International Airport after an incident involving the President. Yesterday afternoon, MARINE ONE lifted off from the White House grounds to transport President Trump to Joint Base Andrews to depart for Los Angeles. Normally, when MARINE ONE flies this routine route, commercial aviation at Reagan is halted for a few minutes to provide a security standoff for Presidential aircraft. Tuesday night, this did not occur, and a civilian airliner passed within one mile of the President's helicopter. Analyst Comment: In terms of security incidents, this is comparatively minor and no safety concerns came about. There was no risk of collision, but due to the extreme levels of caution that is in place with any Presidential aircraft (and the zero-fail nature of the mission) ATC at Reagan making this mistake is concerning. Especially in the context of the long list of aviation mishaps that have plagued this specific airport for the past few years. Washington D.C. - Yesterday the Senate confirmed Dr. Erica Schwartz as director of the CDC. Before this position, Schwartz was a clinician for the Coast Guard, with her entire career being spent in the realm of creating and managing vaccine policy. Her latest position was to serve as the Preventative Medicine Chief in the Operational Medicine Readiness Division at headquarters in Washington, and was in charge of creating all vaccine policies for the USCG. Her priority areas for vaccine management and administration have been in Haiti, New Orleans (after Hurricane Katrina), and more recently with the Ebola outbreak in Africa. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The confirmation hearings to get the CDC Director position across the line were initially a bit uncertain, as Schwartz's main interest is in the world of vaccines. As HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy has been extremely outspoken on the topic of vaccine policy management, most of her confirmation hearings involved Senators questioning if she would continue the ways of the "old guard" at the CDC, or if she would follow the newer policy initiatives of her boss (Secretary Kennedy), who most of the traditional bureaucracy opposes. After a few brief rounds of questioning, the Senate was satisfied with her answers and she was confirmed with the vote splitting mostly along party lines. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 7 · 3 min

    The Wire - August 7, 2026

    //The Wire//2000Z August 7, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN THAILAND. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS STAGNANT. CHICAGO MORTUARY UNDER INVESTIGATION AFTER REMAINS DISCOVERED BEING STORED IMPROPERLY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Kinetic activity has been fairly minimal over the past few days, with the exception of the Iranian targeting of merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Concerning the Strait itself, Iran and Oman are reportedly close to announcing their combined plan for joint administration of the waterway, which is reported to include the tolling structure moving forward. Thailand: This morning a mass shooting was reported at the Debsirin School in Bangkok. One 14-year-old student conducted the attack, which resulted in 8x fatal casualties and over a dozen more wounded. Local authorities state that the main target for the shooting was a teacher, and five of those killed were teaching staff. Eventually, the suspect took his own life, ending the attack. After the suspect was identified by police, his home was raided, where his grandparents were found murdered, as the suspect attacked them first, before conducting the shooting at the school. Analyst Comment: This is the second high-profile violent incident involving children in Thailand over the past month. On July 2, an eleven year old boy was driving a pickup truck when he rammed into a group of Buddhist monks on pilgrimage, killing 11. That incident was not explicitly stated to be nefarious, but authorities never stated that it was an accident either, and the boy in that case was committed to the care of the government. -HomeFront- Illinois: This morning an investigation began into a crematorium in Chicago. Yesterday evening, authorities were dispatched to the South Chicago Chapel funeral home to investigate a possible "license violation". Over 57x bodies were found in various states of decomposition at this facility, which resulted in a HAZMAT response which continued throughout the night. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: There is unfortunately a long history with the body dump site case in Chicago, and it revolves around one man. Clark Morgan has a history of being involved with rather grim affairs, ranging from fraudulently operating as a funeral director (with no license), to also improperly storing remains at his facilities. Last year, he did the same thing at Chicago Heights crematorium, where over 100x decomposing remains were discovered in freight trailers and cargo trucks...the same type of cargo trucks that are observable in the Google Streetview imagery of the South Chicago Chapel. Morgan has faced years of disciplinary action due to unprofessional conduct, but has not been criminally charged for the most recent discoveries or the prior incidents. He was levied a $10,000 fine for the previous incident involving over a hundred bodies, but the fee was paid and he carried on as before. One of the questions that has not been addressed at any time, is the more important question of potential organ harvesting practices. All media has commented on the impropriety of the case, but when it comes to mortuary affairs, the black market for extremely graphic practices is thriving. Plus, the same guy that's going to operate a mortuary on a revoked license, and get caught stacking bodies in closets (at least twice), is probably not the sort of character that would shy away from the black market. As a result, it would be wise for this investigation to focus on the more nefarious possibilities that might be in play, rather than just the health code violations. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 6 · 6 min

    The Wire - August 5, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 5, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ALLEGED DRONE ATTACK REPORTED TARGETING UKRAINIAN AIRCRAFT AT GERMAN AIRPORT. MERCHANT SUNK IN THE SOUTHERN RED SEA IN DRONE BOAT ATTACK. MAN ARRESTED IN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S VISIT TO GOLF CLUB YESTERDAY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Red Sea/HOA: This morning one merchant vessel reported being struck by an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) near the Bab el Mandeb Strait. The UKMTO reported the vessel as being sunk during the attack. The incident occurred so quickly that the UKMTO was not notified during the attack, and the ship sank almost immediately after the incident. Analyst Comment: If the Houthis are now using USVs during this phase of operations, this war just got a lot more serious. The Houthis have demonstrated this capability in the past (such as the war with the United States last year), but have refrained from using this tactic so far during this campaign. Sinking a vessel using a USV is a new step toward closing the Bab el Mandeb, and the response from insurance companies will be an indicator to monitor, as this chokepoint becomes a warzone once again. Germany: This morning a series of possible explosive drone attacks was reported at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Just before midnight, one quadcopter-type drone was observed operating over the airport, prompting drone procedures to be enacted and aircraft grounded. During this response, a search of the airport resulted in the discovery of a second quadcopter lying on the tarmac near a Ukrainian cargo plane. This drone appeared to contain an explosive charge, though no contact detonation apparatus was visible in the provided photos of this device. After this incident was concluded and flight operations resumed, a DHL cargo aircraft collided with a third drone (of unknown type) upon takeoff from this airport, which resulted in the aircraft declaring an emergency and diverting to another airport due to the damage to the airframe. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation cyberattacks on critical infrastructure continue. Over the past few days, water utilities in a total of 12x states have been affected by malign actors since last month. After the large-scale cyberattacks which resulted in dozens of water districts being locked out of their systems in Minnesota, many more states have reported similar incidents. Georgia is the latest state affected by cyberattacks, and this afternoon New Jersey also reported two water districts being targeted, both of which had to cut access to unspecified computer systems and switch to operating manually. Analyst Comment: As with most infrastructure attacks, these incidents are usually not immediately disclosed to the public unless the public would find out about it anyway, so the timing of all of these cyberattacks is not really known. The Minnesota attacks last week were publicized immediately due to the immediate impact to the public, and now that more eyes are on the issue (and various federal agencies have issued warnings of more attacks), more lower-level municipalities are disclosing that they had similar breaches over the past two weeks. As far as the malign actors behind these cyberattacks, it could be anyone. It does not take a nationstate level actor to breach a system that was using the default passwords or wasn't secured properly in the first place, but the targeting of a nation's water supply indicates the motive is probably in the military realm. No ransomware or demands have been noted, and no hacking group has claimed credit yet. These attacks were meant to directly take services offline, ruling out financial motives for the time being. California: Yesterday the DoJ announced the arrest of an individual tied to a possible security breach at the Trump National Golf Club in Los Angeles. The press release states that Jeanine John Taele was observed conducting surveillance by the initial Secret Service advance team that was sent to the Golf Club ahead of President Trump's visit. Taele was observed wearing an earpiece and taking photos of the security practices at the club, which drew the eye of the USSS. The suspect departed the facility and transited to his home, where he was apprehended by the Secret Service. During a search of his belongings agents found a few firearms, a pair of binoculars, and a generic badge used by security guards. Additionally, authorities discovered several notebooks containing "concerning statements" at his residence. Analyst Comment: The press release left enough ambiguity to make it difficult to determine what actually happened here: This could be extremely serious, or just some idiot who got too curious. The mention of the earpiece is an important detail, because depending on what that earpiece was, this could be a big deal. The way the release is written, this could easily have been a bluetooth headset as is customarily displayed by those who prefer the rather garish utilitarianism of wearing at all times. Or, this could have been a more substantial security threat that expands beyond just one person. If this individual was acting suspiciously, taking photos of security equipment, speaking into a "radio signal device" with an earpiece, and had vaguely described manifesto-esque notebooks at his residence...this was probably way more serious than just some guy walking around. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The drone incident in Germany will be heavily scrutinized as this is a major escalation which can be interpreted in many different ways. First off all, it must be noted that the one extremely blurry photo of one drone may or may not actually show an explosive charge. What looks like an explosive charge could also be the battery pack, it's hard to tell based on the photo. If there were explosives onboard, it would have been a very small charge and not the flying artillery shells that have become common during the war. At the wavetop level, it is hard to believe that a nation-state level actor which has undeniably mastered the art of conducting attacks with sUAS platforms in war...would fail. If Russia was behind this attack, and really intended to target Ukrainian aircraft on the ground in Germany, a 100% failure rate using multiple explosive drones is extraordinarily unlikely. As a result, it's possible that this was either a false-flag attack intended to blame Russia, or it was Russia sending a message to NATO. Conducting a drone attack, but deliberately leaving the detonator disconnected so that the debris is found and forensic analysis of the explosives leads to a Russian factory, would be a classic Russian message...that's their style perfectly. This is the Kremlin's version of "per my last email", and proves two very serious ideas: NATO's aircraft are vulnerable on their home turf, and Russia already has clandestine forces located near NATO airports poised and waiting to eliminate NATO aircraft before they ever get off the ground. That message is more valuable than taking out one Ukrainian transport plane. However, this whole saga could also be the Ukrainians trying to expand the war, continuing the trend that has been expanding for some time. Since the very start, Zelenskyy has been trying to draw the whole world into their war, and has conducted attacks involving other European nations (such as Monaco and Turkey), which have served as an attempt to bring other nations in to the war to fight the Russians for them. From the Ukrainian perspective this makes sense, and every nation on earth fighting such a nasty war would also use trickery in a similar manner. But for the DHL pilots who almost died and other collateral damage over the years, this is hardly reassuring. The truth will probably be indirectly told in the mainstream media, by what rhetoric is being pushed. If this incident is downplayed and memory-holed, it probably was the Russians. If the mainstream media sources in NATO countries start an information campaign to spin this in their favor, the chances of this being a fake attack go up. For everyone who does not have the ability to forensically analyze the devices themselves, the true culprit might never be known. All the while the new Cold War becomes increasingly more hot, every single day. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 5 · 3 min

    The Wire - August 4, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: IRANIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE IN KUWAIT AND STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TURKISH MERCHANTS STRUCK BY UKRAINIAN DRONES IN BLACK SEA. WILDFIRE RESPONSE CONTINUES IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS ARSON REMAINS A CONCERN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: This morning Iranian attacks continued in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting more vessels which have attempted to transit via the unauthorized southern route. Around the region, Iranian forces targeted American installations in Kuwait overnight, with locals reporting large fires allegedly in the vicinity of Camp Buehring. Analyst Comment: This is the first round of strikes that was not explicitly tied to the tit-for-tat American strikes, and this is one of the few times the Iranians have launched an attack during this war, that was not purely retaliatory. This is the latest indicator that the Iranians are becoming increasingly less likely to allow the United States to conduct strikes, and then let the markets cool off by the time the opening bell rings. Conducting strikes on their own terms and timing, is likely a tactic Iran will continue to exercise while the United States tries to buy more time to figure out how to win the war. Europe: The war in Ukraine has remained hot on multiple fronts as attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea continue to involve more third-party nations. This morning, Ukrainian drones targeted the M/V NADEZHDA (IMO: 7702657) just off the coast of Novorossiysk. This vessel is a Roll-on, Roll-Off (RoRo) vehicle transportation vessel, and was owned and operated by Turkey, with a mostly Turkish crew. In addition to this strike, another vessel was also struck in the same general area. The M/V YASAR (IMO: 9276341), a smaller regional containership was struck at roughly the same time as the NADEZHDA. Both vessels had recently departed port Novorossiysk before being struck. Analyst Comment: So far, Turkish authorities have played their hand very carefully, and there haven't been any public statements indicating how serious they are treating these strikes. The Turks have called on both Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, which is exactly the kind of milquetoast statement that would be expected for a NATO member which also buys a lot of Russian military hardware. Nevertheless, this duality of defense is only going to last for so long, especially if this war expands to include the deaths of Turkish civilians onboard Turkish civilian ships. -HomeFront- Pacific Northwest: Wildfire concerns remain paramount as disaster recovery efforts continue in Washington state. Spokane is the biggest urban interface affected by the wildfires, and many suburbs and surrounding towns have burned completely to the ground. The National Interagency Fire Center status report for this morning stated that the three main wildfires burning in the Spokane area are still zero-percent contained, though major gains were made in combatting two of the fires threatening local homes in the suburbs. So far, most of the firefighting efforts have prioritized immediate risk to life within the residential areas of the city, in addition to aiding evacuation efforts for much of the population. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In eastern Washington, weather is going to play a factor over the next few days and the region at large is not out of the woods just yet. The National Weather Service Fire weather update from this morning indicated light and variable winds forecasted for tonight, increasing tomorrow. Temperatures today were a bit cooler, but temps are expected to rise (and humidity expected to drop) ever further tomorrow, as winds begin to rise. This afternoon's weather forecast continued to indicate increasing winds of over 20mph are likely throughout central and eastern Washington on Friday and Saturday. As a result, fire behavior conditions can change quickly, and increased situational awareness is vital while the crisis continues. This is especially important considering the origin of the fires. At least one arrest has been made due to at least some of these fires being arson, and the risk of continued malign action is likely while these weather patterns continue. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 4 · 20 min

    Intel Update - August 1 - ChokePoint

    Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - The HomeFront 04:39 - Middle East 07:56 - Spain 12:32 - Chokepoints 19:08 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Odysee: https://odysee.com/@S2Underground:7 Gab: https://gab.com/S2underground Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • August 4 · 3 min

    The Wire - August 3, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z August 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS SHOOTING CONDUCTED IN IDAHO, PREPARED CITIZEN RETURNS FIRE DURING SMALL ARMS ENGAGEMENT. PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS OFF WEEKEND STRIKES IN IRAN. WILDFIRES DEVASTATE URBAN AREAS IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: On Saturday, President Trump stated that the weekend strikes had been called off. Throughout the region the status quo remains, and no major targeting efforts were conducted since last week, with the exception of Iran continuing to strike merchant vessels which try to transit the Strait of Hormuz using the unauthorized southern route. -HomeFront- Idaho: On Saturday, an active shooter incident was reported at an In-N-Out restaurant in Twin Falls. At approximately 2:30pm local time, one gunman approached the structure and began shooting at the patrons inside. During the attack, an armed and prepared citizen responded to the shooting and began engaging the shooter. This action prompted the shooter to break off the attack, and take his own life, ending the incident. During the fray, an off duty police officer at the venue also responded to the shooting, and was seriously wounded by a gunshot wound to the arm. Concerning casualties, a total of 3x people were killed during the attack, at least one of which was an employee of the restaurant. Approximately 7x others were wounded, some of which remain in critical condition. The suspect has been identified as Chad Williams, and no information has been released regarding the motive for the attack. Analyst Comment: Based on the videos that have come to light during the shooting, the attacker was very likely not expecting any opposition to arrive for some time, and was likely caught off guard by at least one, possibly two people shooting at him immediately after his attack began. Though this shooting will be scrutinized over the next few weeks, the immediate lesson learned is that both violence of action and some level of training are the most important factors for turning the tide during an active shooter incident. Washington: Over the weekend, wildfires have spread throughout the Pacific Northwest, with an exceptionally dangerous series of fires affecting Spokane. Fire damage has spread to the urban areas at the northwestern side of town, and upwards of 65,000 people remain affected or displaced by the devastation statewide. Analyst Comment: In wildland fire management, one of the most dangerous fire situations are fires that occur at the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). These are fires which occur on the outskirts of towns, where jurisdictions meet and interagency coordination is more difficult due to varying tactics being used in fighting the fire. In this case, the fires spreading to the urban environment very quickly resulted in the loss of approximately 700 structures in Spokane County. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though the chances of this theory being correct are slim, there is another possible explanation for the weekend shenanigans in the Middle East, that does not lie in the realm of stock market manipulation or insider trading. It is possible that the long buildup to weekend strikes on the rhetoric front (but not really in terms of staging a lot of aircraft) was intended to make someone or something move. Speaking operationally, the Iranians have been buttoned up for some time now, as they are fighting a defensive war on their home turf. Most Iranian leadership, even down the chain to mid-level management positions, are all expecting decapitation strikes, the targeting of headquarters positions, and other secret bunker complexes and safehouses that are used for command and control. When an adversary is dug-in so substantially, sometimes it's beneficial to "shake the tree", as in, to do something to get the dug-in adversary to either move or communicate with others. If this was the goal, it probably worked and resulted in some intelligence benefit. The Iranians viewed the strikes as imminent, to the point that cities were being evacuated, leave was canceled for ground troops, and key leaders had moved to their more substantial bunker complexes. Movement which the watchful eye of American intelligence agencies could see. Of course, if this theory bears any weight, the overall reasoning for why this took place is still fairly dumb. Normally, these types of information operations are useless unless they are capitalized on immediately, as stale intelligence does not really help the overall strategic situation. What's astronomically more likely than some sort of intelligence collection potential is simply the financial incentives to keep playing financial markets, and hoping that the "we're bombing them"/"they called and want to make a deal" cycle continues to be a viable option for both insider trading, but also to string the war along and buy time for a solution to hopefully materialize. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • August 2 · 3 min

    The Wire - July 31, 2026

    //The Wire//2100Z July 31, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GIBRALTAR CRISIS CONTINUES AS 60,000 MIGRANTS FLOOD INTO SPAIN. ITALY TO SUSPEND SCHENGEN AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN DUE TO MIGRANT CRISIS. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING KUWAIT AS UNITED STATES CONSOLIDATES POSITIONS IN MIDDLE EAST AMID IRANIAN TARGETING EFFORTS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Spain: The situation regarding the migrant wave has continued to deteriorate sharply. After the perimeter fence was breached yesterday, the sheer waves of people crossing the border have devastated the enclave of Ceuta. Spanish authorities estimate that over 60,000 people have crossed the border since the perimeter breach last night, and most residents of the peninsula have been barricading themselves inside their homes as the sheer number of people in this small town is staggering. Home invasions and forced-squatting instances have been reported all around the peninsula, along with mass looting and destruction taking place. Throughout this morning, many migrants have also been observed crossing back into Morocco, after realizing that the small peninsula cannot sustain this many people, as water and food sources have been expended throughout much of the city. Analyst Comment: Additionally, videos surfaced overnight confirming that this effort is not entirely organic. Truckloads of migrants are deliberately being driven to the border fence and released into Spain with the active participation of the Moroccan government. Moroccan border guards have also been observed opening the fence from their side as well, allowing large crowds through gates separating the peninsula from the mainland. Europe: This morning, the Italian government has suspended their Schengen Agreement with Spain, cutting off free travel between the two nations. The Interior Minister for Finland also voiced support for Italy's decision, urging other EU member states to likewise close their borders with Spain. Analyst Comment: Spain losing visa-free access to Italy is a big deal, as Italy one of the largest economies in Europe and cross-border trade between Spain and Italy amounts to roughly €70 billion per year. The Schengen agreement does specifically allow for the temporary halting of the pact as a measure of last resort, which Italy has enacted. If more nations follow suit, Spain could be in quite a tough spot that will probably result in a complication of trade in the short term. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the war remains much the same as before, with most strikes targeting American bases in Kuwait. No strikes have been reported in Jordan yet today, but satellite imagery is still pending coverage since the strikes on al Salti a few days ago. The United States has reportedly turned around a few vessels in the Gulf of Oman, which if true, confirms that the American blockade is still in effect to some degree. Similarly, Iranian sources claim to have struck two more tankers somewhere in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz, but the UKMTO has not confirmed this yet (which they might not do, as they also underreported successful strikes a few weeks ago). In Iraq, Arab news sources are reporting that the drawdown of the American presence in Erbil is nearly complete, and that all missile defenses have been withdrawn from this installation and relocated elsewhere. Though the scale of the American withdrawal in Iraq is not exactly being openly advertised, moving the remains of that Patriot battery are a big clue that the U.S. is looking to cede Iraq to Iran's sphere of influence. The Erbil airport was the last official American position in the nation (aside from the Embassy in Baghdad), so if the US has departed this base, this would be the first time in 23 years the US has not had a conventional military presence in Iraq. Now, the closest positions to Iran (from the western side), are in Kuwait. This is probably why Iranian strikes continue to focus on Kuwait, and the American bases within. This is not just intended to reduce the potential for more American ATACMS missile launches from the border region, but also to keep pressure on the United States, preventing the staging of aircraft at the handful of airbases in Kuwait. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • July 30 · 5 min

    The Wire - July 30, 2026

    //The Wire//2100Z July 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS RETALIATORY STRIKES WITHIN IRAN. CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK CONTINUES IN UNITED STATES. MIGRATION WAVE HITS SPAIN AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING RESULTS IN BORDER CROSSING BREACH.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: American strikes on Iran continued overnight, with most of the targets being struck in the same coastal regions of Iran that have been targeted since the ceasefire was broken. Iran has claimed to have struck several aircraft on the ground at Muwaffaq al Salti in Jordan, along with other targets around the region which will take some time to verify. On the American side, one new series of targets struck by the United States was reported in the border town of Abadan, which is geographically located right on the Iraqi border, a short distance from Bubiyan Island where American HIMARs launchers have been observed conducting ATACMS strikes within Iran. Spain: An emergency situation has been declared after thousands of migrants swarmed the small enclave of Ceuta on the south side of the Strait of Gibraltar. Several thousand migrants breached the border perimeter that separates the Spanish peninsular city of Ceuta, from mainland Morocco. After it became clear to the crowds that there were very few border guards, the fencing was breached by land, and small boats launched by sea to land on the beaches, circumventing the fencing. Immediately after the migrant waves arrived this morning, the city has been in a state of sheer bedlam. Riots have been reported throughout the peninsula and property owners have reported being swarmed with break ins, as the border itself has completely collapsed. Analyst Comment: The reason for the fray is due to a recent court ruling which has intensified illegal immigration efforts. This week, Spain's Supreme Court re-affirmed that their borders are open, and that migrants who are apprehended trying to cross over to this peninsula cannot be deported. Last month, Spain's amnesty program officially closed, but because it's very hard to prove an entry date for someone who crossed the border illegally, the boats are being launched like never before, which resulted in today's intensification once the fence was breached. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation the outbreak of cyclospora has continued to remain a concern as the exact point of origin for the parasite remains largely unknown. Over the past few weeks, the infection has continued to spread around the nation, and now a total of 45x states are reporting citizens falling ill. The largest outbreak cluster remains in Michigan and Ohio, and most of the other states affected are located in the midwest, the northeast, and southeastern regions of the nation. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has reached a level of complexity that makes direct strikes and targeting efforts way more impactful than they otherwise would be. A few days ago, the Saudis struck targets in northern Iraq, targeting Iran-aligned militia groups. It was partially this action which resulted in Iran striking back at Saudi Arabia yesterday. The groups that were targeted by the Saudis, were allegedly smaller sub-groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which had not formally joined with the Iraqi government. For context, the PMF are an infamous collection of militia units and tribes, which align with Iran along religious lines in addition to sharing the geography along the Iranian border. In recent years, the PMF has been rolled into the Iraqi government, to serve as the official militia/homeguard for the nation. This results in a complex web of loyalties and relationships, as making the PMF a part of the official uniformed Iraqi military service makes them harder to strike due to the diplomatic situation. This is probably why the Saudis attacked when they didn't necessarily need to. They found a way to strike PMF factions that would probably result in a fracturing within the region, but also not really result in a retaliatory attack from the Iraqi government. Or at least, that was the gamble on the part of the Saudis. The fact that the PMF sporadically launch drones at the Saudis helped justify this targeting effort last weekend. However in effect, what this has done, has brought Iran and Iraq closer together...at least in terms of hating the Saudis. The problem is that the Saudis (much like others in the region) have a habit of kicking a hornets nest, then handing that nest to the United States to deal with. When the Saudis hit the PMF in Iraq, the militia groups in Iraq will probably take this as an opportunity to increase attacks on the American base in Erbil (as they have for years), and the Iraqi government might not be so inclined to reign them in...because the Americans are not reigning in the Saudis. In short, things are sliding sideways, and because it's complicated and can't be compressed into a quick soundbite for decision makers to consume, the danger is very likely going unnoticed. Even though it is complicated, this is a comparatively easy example of how escalations can take place not just vertically, but also horizontally. Vertical escalations take the form of increasingly more severe tit-for-tat airstrikes, but horizontal escalations are far less intense, while spreading out around the world. This has resulted in the situation sleepwalking into serious territory, which has largely gone unnoticed because it hasn't been flashy enough for headlines. The Saudis are striking the Iraqis, the Houthis are hitting the Saudis, somebody is striking the Egyptians, the Israelis have slipped back into the shadows, the Iranians are hitting the Jordanians and Americans, and the United States is perplexingly bombing coastal targets and bridges within Iran...which are rather forebodingly only used during the wintertime wet season. These horizontal escalations have been a mainstay of this conflict since the beginning, but right now these more indirect escalations are taking center stage as the United States and Iran slug it out with missiles, drones, and bombs, and the United States is unable to make progress for the time being. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • July 30 · 3 min

    The Wire - July 29, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z July 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST EXPANDS TO AFRICA AS DRONE ATTACK REPORTED IN EGYPT. IRAN CONDUCTS MORE MISSILE STRIKES ON AMERICAN BASES IN MIDDLE EAST, UNITED STATES BEGINS RESPONSE THIS EVENING. CYBERATTACK TARGETS MINNESOTA WATER SUPPLY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight Iran conducted missile and drone attacks throughout the region, targeting American positions. Muwaffaq al Salti was hit again, along with the American base in Erbil. After this series of attacks, the White House has indicated that the US will be retaliating soon, and as of this report American airstrikes have resumed within Iran. Egypt: This morning, explosions were reported onboard a floating natural gas storage/processing platform in Damietta Port. An American-registered Floating Storage and Regassification Unit (FSRU) was reportedly struck by at least one munition, which resulted in several follow-on explosions. Separately, another tanker vessel was reportedly struck in the same general area. As of this afternoon firefighting boats were still cooling the superstructure and most of the topside equipment onboard the two vessels. Analyst Comment: Egyptian authorities have stated that these explosions were an industrial accident, however a video taken by a crew member onboard the vessel that was struck confirms that the incident was a drone attack. Regardless, nobody has claimed this as a targeting effort yet, and if this was Iran, it would be the longest-range attack they have conducted so far during the war. As a result, it's possible (or even likely) that these drones were launched from somewhere closer than Iran. Lebanon is the only wild guess that makes sense, as it's a straight shot across the water to the target. -HomeFront- USA: Yesterday evening American Airlines announced a nationwide ground stop of all of their aircraft due to an IT outage. The FAA implemented the emergency action due to an unspecified loss of connectivity between American Airlines aircraft and ground control systems. Mass delays were reported nationwide while the outage was being fixed, and after several hours systems were restored. Minnesota: This afternoon a large scale cyberattack was reported targeting water treatment and processing systems throughout the state. The cyberattack was only disclosed to the public this morning, but initially took place on July 26/27. The immediate impact of this cyberattack resulted in power outages and the control of automated water management systems being affected. As of this afternoon, the towns of Braham, Maple Plain, Plymouth, and south St. Paul have all reported being impacted by the cyberattack, with many districts throughout the state remaining under a boil-water advisory. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: CENTCOM and the media are calling Iran's actions last night a "surprise attack", but in reality it was no different than all of the other attacks conducted so far. CENTCOM has stated that all missiles were intercepted, but locals on the ground have provided photos of large fires and smoke plumes being emitted from American bases. Nevertheless, theses attacks probably pushed the decision to be made regarding a return to strikes, in some form. The war officially expanding to now include Egypt is very likely to complicate the situation further...this one war involving Iran has now technically spread to a total of three continents: Asia, Europe, and now northern Africa. Of course, one or two drone strikes does not equal a large scale operation, but back in 1942 Doolittle's Raid didn't either. It was meant to send a message, much like the extremely long-range attack that was carried out in Egypt today. Egypt certainly received that message lout and clear, but it is questionable as to if the significance of this small attack was understood by the United States. Though the usual tit-for-tat cycle has been disrupted somewhat over the past week, at a more strategic level all indications are in place pointing toward a continuation of what's been ongoing since the ceasefire was broken: Tit-for-tat strikes continuing that stay below the level of all-out war, but also resulting in no diplomatic solution for the time being. All the while the war slowly creeps outside the bounds of the region, and the message becomes more clear: From the Nile Delta to Mumbai...nowhere is safe from the impact of war. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

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