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Welcome to S2 Underground, a freelance intelligence agency that brings real time intelligence reporting to the frontline fight against terrorism, fake news, and political tyranny around the world.

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  • Yesterday · 4 min

    The Wire - November 9, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z November 9, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STANDARD TARGETING EFFORTS CONTINUE AROUND THE MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES PROSPECTIVE PIVOT ON IMMIGRATION POLICY. MASS SHOOTING STRIKES PUBLIC SQUARE IN KRAKOW.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Targeting throughout the weekend continued as before, with the Houthis striking several Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia. The Aramco headquarters building in Riyadh was struck by a large Houthi drone, with the impact causing major damage to several floors of the building. In the Strait of Hormuz, this morning Iran conducted one strike on Didamar, a small island out in the Strait itself which has been host to American sensor platforms. American forces also hit Qeshm Island once again over the weekend, and in addition to these land-based targeting efforts, several more ships were hit overnight while transiting out of the Gulf. Analyst Comment: Somewhat ironically, the reports that oil is flowing freely in the Strait are true, however when oil transits the waterway it's generally advised for it to be inside ships. Over the weekend, satellite imagery has continued to log several large oil slicks in the Strait, which have remained constant since Iranian targeting shifted to involve the use of limpet mines emplaced on the hulls of oil tankers, which have resulted in large oil spills in the region over the past few weeks. Poland: More details have come to light regarding the mass shooting that took place in Krakow on Saturday. At approximately 3:00pm local time, one gunman approached the Main Square in Krakow's Old Town, and began shooting at random people. Senior Constables Jakub Kulik and Artur Morański were patrolling the area when the first shots were fired, and immediately engaged the suspect with their service weapons. Officer Morański sustained a gunshot wound to the neck during the opening skirmish, and Officer Kulik was hit in the chest as the shootout continued. Both officers were able to hit the suspect many times, attempting to shoot around the suspect's body armor. Despite being shot in the lung, Officer Kulik was able to close the distance to the shooter, and neutralize the suspect, ending the incident. Two surgeons who were having lunch at a nearby cafe rendered aid to Kulik (who was also able to self-apply a tourniquet to himself), while a crowd of bystanders assisted the shooter. After the attack, authorities raided the suspect's home to find that he had murdered his parents and sister, before he conducted the attack at the town square. The suspect has been identified as Michał Oksiński, and succumbed to his wounds in a hospital last night. Both Morański and Kulik survived surgery last night, and show signs of improvement while remaining in intensive care. Concerning the total casualty count, 6x civilians were killed during the engagement, plus the 3x family members murdered by the suspect. A total of 16x others were wounded during the shootout in the square, though their status is unknown. Analyst Comment: Concerning motive, Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński stated that the shooter was "far-right". However, analysis of the shooter's extensive social media presence indicates he was a far-left activist who had supported various liberal political ideals such as the LGBT agenda. The shooter's profile also included a photo of himself marching in solidarity with migrants in Poland, as well as displaying various pro-Ukraine sentiments as well. Following these discoveries, Kierwiński walked back his statements and apologized for stating false information. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: In Washington D.C. major political moves are being made in the wake of the midterms. In an interview with 60 Minutes, President Trump stated that his deportation policy was "too tough" and that everyone who wanted deportations was "pretty far-right", even though polling data indicates that roughly 91% of Republicans have either a favorable view of his immigration policies (or thought that he did not go far enough). During the interview he also expressed support for a deal with the Democrats which would allow illegal immigrants to stay in the country (earning him high praise from Democrats in Congress) though the exact details of this idea were not conveyed. This afternoon, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin expressed his support for considering some form of granting illegal aliens permanent legal status. Though these comments will surely be debated in the political realm for some time, these statements will have multiple immediate effects in the short-term. Self-deportations will immediately stop, as no illegal immigrant is going to go back home if they think that an amnesty deal (in some form) is on the table. Secondly, illegal border crossings will immediately spike, as there is now strong motivation to reignite human trafficking networks, to exploit the still-existing transit nodes across the southern US border. Right now, at this very moment, large convoys of migrants are already on their way to the United States, with large migrant waves forming in Mexico to make the trip north to the border. These groups will be arriving at the border within a few weeks, and some border patrol sectors are already reporting a sharp increase in attempted illegal border crossings over the weekend. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • Saturday · 19 min

    Intel Update - Nov. 7 - Dark Nights

    Plugins: https://github.com/s2underground Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:11 - Strategic Movement 02:15 - Europe 04:00 - The Midterms 06:05 - Middle East 11:00 - Illum Planning Factors 15:41 - GhostNet and Plugins Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • Saturday · 2 min

    The Wire - November 6, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z November 6, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PERSONNEL SHAKEUPS REPORTED AT WHITE HOUSE AS MIDTERM ELECTION RESULTS PROMPT LEADERSHIP CHANGES. TENSIONS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WARTIME PLANS STILL ON THE TABLE. WALL STREET INDICATES BEAR MARKET APPROACHING.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Bomb threats onboard commercial aircraft continued overnight, with 14x flights around the region being diverted due to claims of explosives being onboard. All threats were determined to be hoaxes, continuing the trend of this week. Middle East: Preparations for a continuation of the war remain constant. In the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian targeting of merchant shipping has steadily resulted in one or two ships struck every day for the past few weeks, with two more ships being struck overnight. This afternoon, the Qatari Foreign Minister stated that the US and Iran have failed to come to any sort of agreement as of today, and that little progress has been made in achieving a peaceful settlement at the moment. -HomeFront- Ohio: Yesterday Lockheed Martin agreed to pay $29.5 million to settle a federal lawsuit pertaining to their discrimination of White employees within their employee bonus program. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) had investigated the company for withholding bonuses and promotions of over 1,000 employees, solely on the basis of race. New York: On Wall Street, indications and warnings suggest exceptional market volatility in the wake of the midterm election results, and the subsequent political shake-up which impacts the financial sector. Yesterday the DOW dropped more than 1,800 points amid a large-scale tech selloff and many economists theorize that the AI bubble may have begun to pop, with the market trending toward correction territory. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: In Washington, the fallout from the midterm election bloodbath has continued to develop, and may shape the future of the war in Iran. In short, the knives are out, and many power-players within the White House are attempting to save their jobs and deflect blame for the disastrous election outcomes this week. This afternoon, President Trump relieved Chief of Staff Suzie Wiles, replacing her with Stephen Miller. This marks the highest-profile firing after the midterms, and is a strong indicator of the power struggles that are being worked out inside the White House following the election results. The impact of the midterms is going to take some time to unpack on the domestic front, but on the battlefield these very strong indications of personnel changes will likely have an impact on the war over the next two weeks. Generally speaking, a major election loss and subsequent firings/resignations are not stable footing from which to re-launch a military operation, but all of these domestic political factors make it challenging to isolate the potential courses of action regarding the war. President Trump might go for broke and re-launch the war now that he has nothing to lose (and before his leadership team gets razed by Congress), or he may seek to back off and find a more diplomatic route forward, to avoid what American voters have confirmed as being an unpopular war. The next few days will be another period of heightened tension, as more military assets maneuver to the Middle East in preparation for whatever orders come down the pipeline. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • S11 · E5
    Thursday · 3 min

    The Wire - November 5, 2026

    //The Wire//1900Z November 5, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: BOMB THREATS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE COMMERCIAL AVIATION IN EUROPE, NO THREATS DEEMED VIABLE. PRESIDENT OF PARAGUAY RESIGNS AFTER BANKING COLLAPSE THIS MORNING, DUE TO HIS TIES TO BANK'S LEADERSHIP.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: This morning bomb threats onboard commercial aircraft throughout the continent continued. Over a dozen flights were diverted and evacuated due to these threats, which caused mass delays throughout the region. None of the threats were determined to be credible following security checks. Analyst Comment: This morning's threat-spree is the second such incident this week. Malign actors know that bomb threats are cheap...every claim has to be investigated, wasting time and resources while authorities do their due diligence to clear the threats. Sending in a bunch of threats all at once can heavily affect the global flight schedules for the day, as many flights getting diverted at once amplifies the effect for malign actors. Paraguay: Overnight, a major banking collapse resulted in pandemonium throughout the nation. Ueno Bank, one of the largest banks in the country, collapsed this morning, leaving customers without access to their funds. A banking run was attempted this morning as customers rushed to pull their money out of ATMs or transfer their funds elsewhere, but most customers report their funds being frozen and unable to withdraw. A total of eight banking executives have been arrested, and many investigations are currently underway. This afternoon President Santiago Peña resigned and stepped down from office, due to his connections and previous business partnership with the owners of the now-collapsed Ueno Bank. Analyst Comment: The cause of this bank's collapse is fairly standard: bad investments resulted in them simply not having enough money to cover their losses, and their solvency ratio fell below the 50% legal limit. This situation is not unheard of in the third world, however this collapse has the potential to become a wider political issue as Ueno Bank's collapse has already led to the resignation of the President. Similarly, the head of Paraguay's Central Bank, previously was the President of Ueno back in 2023, so this is not the case of a small fly-by-night bank collapsing...this scandal has the potential to tank the Paraguayan economy. More details are expected in due time, as the scandal develops. -HomeFront- Iowa: This morning a shooting was reported at a post office in Des Moines, which resulted in multiple casualties. Shortly before lunch today, one gunman began shooting in the vicinity of the front entrance to the post office on Second Avenue, which resulted in the wounding of three people. Nearby police responded immediately, and the shooter was detained. Analyst Comment: The details of this shooting are very minimal at the moment. Right now it's not clear as to if this was a deliberate targeting effort, or more of a routine criminal/domestic situation. The shooter's identity and motive have not yet been disclosed. Washington D.C. - This afternoon Harmeet Dhillon announced her intent to resign her position of DoJ Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights. AG Blanche confirmed that he accepted her resignation, though her replacement has not yet been announced. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Around the world, the cyber realm continues to cause headaches following the exposure of major cybersecurity vulnerabilities over the past few weeks, coupled with the intensification of the war in Europe raising incentives on all sides to carry out cyberattacks. So far, most of the incidents reported since this can was peeled open are hard to attribute to one cause or class of malign actor. Most European nations are pointing the finger at Russia for many cyber incidents, which would be fair enough in a broad sense, except for the fact that many of the breaches this week have been due to security practices so poor that a smart child with ChatGPT could do it. Many of the refrigerator hacks have been due to the default passwords for microcontrollers being left in place, or otherwise offering unsecured access to the internet. Nevertheless, suspicions are present that these low-level, more nuisance-driven attacks are indeed being conducted by nationstates as either a warning or as probing efforts to test defenses and find other vulnerabilities. What the truth is will probably never be known for sure, but the end result for most people is the same...delayed flights, data breaches, PII leaks, and more frustrations on the cyber front for the time being. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • Wednesday · 3 min

    The Wire - November 4, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z November 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AMERICAN MIDTERM ELECTIONS RESULT IN MAJOR VICTORIES FOR DEMOCRATS. CYBERATTACKS CONTINUE AROUND EUROPE, GROWING IN SCALE AND IMPACT. WARTIME PREPARATIONS CONTINUE AROUND MIDDLE EAST.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Throughout the continent, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure have continued. So far, a total of 11x nations have reported being impacted by cyberattacks targeting Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices such as internet connected refrigeration sensors. As of this morning, these vulnerabilities have expanded expanded beyond the initial impacts to supermarkets. Overnight, refrigerators at several blood banks in France were reportedly breached, with staff members at three different facilities taking emergency actions to save Fresh Whole Blood (FWB) units from being compromised. Analyst Comment: Concerning the culprits of these attacks, no entity has been named. Romanian officials have offered up more details on the attacks in their country, stating that the attacks seemed amateurish in nature, and were probably not a nationstate actor. Considering the fallout of the PHPShell and other major cybersecurity incidents of the past few weeks, it's anyone's guess as to who's behind the recent wave of attacks. -HomeFront- Mississippi: This morning an explosion was reported at the Loveland Products plant in Greenville, which shut down the factory for some time. This facility is produces herbicides and fertilizers for agricultural purposes. The cause of the blast is not known, and the exact chemicals involved in the incident have not yet been disclosed. The fire was contained after a few hours, and the investigation continues. USA: Around the nation, yesterday's midterm elections resulted in major gains for the Democrats, with most elections being a clean sweep in their favor. Vote counts are still being tallied but overnight estimates strongly indicate the Republicans lost the House and the Senate, with several key Governor spots flipping blue as well. In Washington, President Trump canceled most of his public appearances for the next week, though this afternoon he made some unplanned remarks at the site of the Ballroom construction project. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Now that the midterms are over, a major milestone is reached within the two major wars being fought overseas. Like it or not, the midterm election results were a major factor in planning the war in Iran, with the White House openly stating multiple times that the milestone of elections reflects a decision point. Now that the results are in, the situation can radically change. President Trump himself is no longer held back by the negative connotations in the polls, as the political situation can't get any worse now that the midterm damage is done. On the other hand, the massive defeat at the polls could cause a large strategic pivot away from the war to save his legacy. Where this goes now is anyone's guess, but decisions made during a period of chaos often tend to not be the most well-thought out. Similarly, most assessments of the future really have to stretch to theorize what the potential courses of action might be, as the possibilities are extremely wide and varied. When stuck in such a situation, it is usually helpful to make decisions based on the tangible evidence that is certain. In the case of what might happen in the next few days/weeks, it is certain that the United States has surged forces into the Middle East. Diplomats and their families have long been evacuated, and yesterday some districts in Israel opened up their public shelters amid high tensions in the region. The USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG is steaming for the Strait of Malacca, and the two carriers already on station are still cutting waves in the Arabian Sea. On the diplomatic front, not much is known about whatever talks are taking place with Iran though intermediaries with the United States, but many Gulf states have sent diplomats to Tehran over the past week, probably to secure their own deals with Iran independently of the United States. Many different officials in many Arab nations have been told that the decision has already been made to return to the war, and that it's only a matter of time. Obviously hearsay among politicians is not something easily verifiable, but all Gulf States have been preparing for this possibility for weeks and since a lot of hardware is still heading into the region, military options are very much on the table. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • November 3 · 4 min

    The Wire - November 3, 2026

    //The Wire//2100Z November 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ELECTION DAY CONTINUES IN UNITED STATES. MULTIPLE BOMB THREATS CALLED IN ON AIRCRAFT IN EUROPE. LIMITED STRIKES REPORTED IN IRAN AS SEVERAL TARGETS STRUCK ON QESHM ISLAND OVERNIGHT. MAJOR TARGETING OF RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE REMAINS CONSTANT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, limited targeting within Iran was reported, as locals observed multiple airstrikes targeting locations on Qeshm Island. Shortly before (or during) the strikes, Iran also claims to have shot down another American MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz, although no wreckage or location data has been provided yet. Europe: Around the continent, many different bomb threats were called in this morning, reporting explosives onboard a handful of commercial flights. At least 7x different commercial flights were diverted mid-flight due to the threats and as of this afternoon, none of the threats have been determined to be viable. Ukraine/Russia: Major targeting of energy infrastructure continued overnight, with Ukraine striking refineries in Samara, and Russia striking a power plant in Dnipro. Last night, Kazakhstan halted the flow of petroleum down the Atyrau-Samara Pipeline due to Ukrainian strikes at the Samara hub. Analyst Comment: The mutual targeting over the past few days has been intense on both sides, and both belligerents have succeeded in causing major damage to each other's infrastructure. These targeting efforts will be important to keep an eye on due to the impact to the global fuel supply (but especially the European energy sector). -HomeFront- USA: Election day is currently underway, with voters heading to the polls around the nation. As of this report no major issues have been reported at polling places, beyond the usual irregularities and attempts to intimidate voters carried out by a variety of groups. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Last night's targeting in Iran was not the "big one" just yet, and it might not have been the United States either. CENTCOM has not acknowledged the strikes, but they also have not reported several strikes before, so this is not an indicator of much. The strikes could just as easily have been the Israelis or one of the Gulf states (though the latter is more unlikely). Regardless of the culprit, the strikes took place at at time of increased tension, and could be a prelude of what is to come. Exactly what was hit remains unconfirmed, but doctrinally speaking these types of engagements might be shaping fires, or targeting efforts intended to shape a future operation. Taking out radar sites and missile launchers in the 48 hours prior to a major campaign would fit within current doctrine, as it will take some time to replace whatever hardware was destroyed. On the other hand, last night's targeting could be a continuation of the previous strikes, with American aircraft engaging random missile/drone launchers as they find them along the coast. The United States has been conducting lower-profile targeting efforts for several weeks now, banking on the Iranians not wanting to restart the war because we hit one of their technicals with a Hellfire. Last night's targeting specifically could have also been a response to the Iranians shooting down another MQ-9 yesterday afternoon. On the other end of the spectrum, these targeting efforts could also be an attempt to goad Iran into launching larger attacks themselves, to justify a return to full-blown warfare. Whatever the case, Iran has not responded to the sporadic, small-scale targeting of random sites along their coastline, and instead has continued to play the long-game by steadily striking merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf. In the diplomatic space, the situation is not looking good. The White House has continued to state that Iran is "close to a deal", while Iranian diplomats state that their position is unchanged from what it was as per the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The toughest challenge is the Iranian stipulation that talks will not begin until the United States abides by the core tenets of the MOU that was already signed, and the American blockade is lifted. At present, this possibility is completely out of the question; US Navy assets have continued to maneuver into the region and there is no indication of American forces lifting the blockade. Around the region, preparations continue for more military action, though if hostilities are planned to commence shortly, some assets are not yet in place. The final flights transporting the full Patriot battery from Texas to Israel departed this morning, and the battery is expected to be operational within a few days. Likewise the US Navy assets in the region are not yet in place either; the USS Teddy Roosevelt CSG is still a few days out from the Strait of Malacca, and the USS Boxer ARG remains in the Indian Ocean, far from the combat zone. If a return to hostilities is the chosen course of action, and if these assets are expected to take part, it will be upwards of a week or so before the timing would line up to support that possibility....always with the caveat that airstrikes can take place at any time, and until the first bomb is dropped, peace is still possible. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • November 3 · 4 min

    The Wire - November 2, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z November 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CYBERATTACKS CONTINUE TO AFFECT REFRIGERATION UNITS AT SUPERMARKET CHAINS IN EUROPE. PLANE CRASH REPORTED IN FLORIDA. REFINERY EXPLOSION REPORTED IN INDIA. SIGNIFICANT LOGISTICAL AND STAGING OF MILITARY ASSETS CONTINUES AROUND THE MIDDLE EAST.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Overnight, the cyberattacks on refrigeration units in commercial stores continued, with a new grocery store chain being affected by malign actors. The ICA supermarket chain reported cyberattacks changing the temperatures on their refrigerators at some of their stores, which caused mass food spoilage this morning in Belgium, Luxembourg, and Sweden. Separately, a total of 13x SuperValu stores in Ireland were also affected by the cyberattacks. Russia: Major Ukrainian targeting continued over the weekend, with several petroleum refineries being hit by Ukrainian drones over the past few days. Russian targeting in Ukraine has remained steady as well, as both parties continue their mutual targeting of energy infrastructure. India: This morning, an explosion and fire was reported at the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) refinery in Visakhapatnam. This facility is responsible for refining roughly 300,000 bbl/d, and most of the finished products produced by this facility are gasoline, fuel oil, and naptha. The cause of the blast is not known. Middle East: Major logistical efforts continue around the region, with the United States surging refueling tankers into Israeli airbases to prepare for a return to the war. Missile defenses continue to be improved and prepared in Saudi Arabia, with upgrades being carried out at several SAM sites throughout the Kingdom. Strait of Hormuz: Iranian targeting of commercial shipping has remained constant over the past few weeks. Numbers have varied each day, but most days have reported several ships being struck, either inbound or outbound. This afternoon, at least two more vessels were struck while transiting the waterway. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning a power outage was reported in Foggy Bottom, which impacted several government agencies. The State Department, World Bank, George Washington University, and several other entities lost power after an issue was reported at a nearby substation. Smoke was reported emitting from manhole covers within the blackout zone, and work crews were able to restore power to much of the area by this afternoon. The root cause of the outage has not yet been released. Florida: Yesterday a catastrophic plane crash was reported in Palm Beach, after a private jet experienced an unknown issue while bound for the Bahamas. One Learjet 60 (Registration: N722BD) took off from Austin, Texas at 12:49pm local time, bound for the Bahamas. As the aircraft flew over Florida, the aircraft experienced heavy turbulence due to severe weather. Subsequent ADS-B transponder data and correlated radio traffic indicate the aircraft experienced an unknown issue which caused a course change to the south, before experiencing a radical uncontrolled nosedive over Palm Beach. The aircraft impacted the ground outside the Green Acres mobile home park on South Military Trail. Concerning casualties, all 9x individuals onboard the aircraft were killed in the crash. The identities of the passengers and crew have not yet been officially released. Analyst Comment: So far the official cause of the crash is not known, however most immediate theories center around weather possibly being a major contributing factor. Recordings of the radio traffic from the aircraft do add context of what happened leading up to the crash, but are exceptionally disturbing and traumatizing to listen to. Before the crash, the aircraft had been navigating bad weather and the flight data indicates the aircraft passed directly through a small but very intense storm cell. This may have led to increased icing conditions which may have caused the vertical stabilizer to either break off or become a nonviable control surface. If that's what happened, this would explain the extremely rapid descent and catastrophic impact with the ground. Initial NTSB press statements have indicated that a partial breakup of the aircraft is indicated by the evidence they have so far, and the full investigation is ongoing. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within the homeland, preparations continue around the nation to fortify critical sites. At Mar-a-Lago, significant national security preparedness efforts are underway as well. Significant counter-UAS systems have been temporarily deployed outside President Trump's residence, on the Bingham Island bridge to the west of the Avenger SAM launchers. One Anduril Mobile Sentry was set up over the weekend along with an Anduril Wisp threat detection suite, and an Anduril Pulsar Electronic Warfare detection and jamming platform. These systems are most effective for protecting against drones of varying type. Against the backdrop of these preparations, rhetoric has been flying out of Washington all weekend. Some rumors are claiming that the United States is close to signing a deal with Iran to approach another period of ceasefire, whereas others claim that these rumors are merely intended to make it seem like peace is imminent as voters go to the polls. Others still claim that more serious targeting remains on the menu, with strikes planned for the night of (or the day after) election day. At the moment, any guess is as good as another, and nobody knows what's going to happen based on rumor. In terms of the tangible and verifiable data that we have available, the force buildup in the Middle East is substantial. Until the first bomb is dropped, a peaceful settlement is always on the table. However, as serious hardware continues to shuttle into the region at the eleventh hour, American military assets are continuing to stage in the region in a similar manner as to when the war first began. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 31 · 28 min

    Intel Update - Oct. 31 - Black October

    Plugins: https://github.com/s2underground Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 01:05 - Strategic Movement 04:14 - Poland 06:29 - Europe 08:20 - Cybersecurity 11:00 - Homeland Preps 17:42 - Middle East 20:05 - Planning Factor Example 25:09 - GhostNet and Plugins Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • October 30 · 3 min

    The Wire - October 30, 2026

    //The Wire//1500Z October 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TARGETING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ESCALATE IN MIDDLE EAST. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND VP VANCE HALT PUBLIC APPEARANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MISSILE DEFENSES INSTALLED AT MAR-A-LAGO AND PALM BEACH AIRPORT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, fighting intensified within the Strait of Hormuz and coastal areas of Iran. A total of 4x airstrikes were reported in the Iranian port of Jask, which were carried out by CENTCOM targeting IRGC missile/drone launch sites. Within the Strait, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continues with more strikes being reported early this morning. Analyst Comment: Last night Saudi Arabia was hit hard as well, with many impacts being reported in Riyadh and some of the oil refineries along Gulf coast. Due to the extreme censorship (and arrest of anyone who's caught posting videos of impacts), corroborating the exact points of impact is challenging. However, the general atmospheric by locals is that Saudi got hit harder last night than they have in a while, as Houthi targeting continues to increase in effectiveness. -HomeFront- Florida: Over the past week, Surface-to-Air missile (SAM) defenses have been installed at Mar-a-Lago and the nearby Palm Beach International Airport (which has recently been renamed to be the Donald J. Trump International Airport.) Multiple Avenger missile systems have been deployed at the request of the US Secret Service, for purposes of targeting hostile drones. Two Avenger pods have been installed on a floating barge at Mar-a-Lago, with an additional battery being deployed near the end of a runway at the airport. Analyst Comment: Prior to the recent Gulf War, there were only a handful of operational SAM sites within the United States, most of which were located in the Washington D.C. area. The most famous missile defense site is located on the roof of the New Executive Office Building (NEOB), which defends the White House from aerial threats. As President Trump has become more concerned about his personal security, mobile missile systems are now accompanying him to most places he goes. The very public addition of Avenger systems at his personal residence and at the airport he frequents most is another indicator that major threats are increasingly more likely. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Like a slow Band-Aid pull, indications and warnings are peeling off by the day to suggest that the United States is conducting the late-stage preparations necessary for another offensive operation to kick off. Yesterday Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) publicly stated that he had been briefed on the Pentagon's war plans as part of his committee positions in Congress. He stated that the US is planning to make good on the prior threats to target civilian infrastructure in Iran, and that the plan is not feasible (in his words, it's "insane"). Of course, weight must be given to statements made by sources that cannot be independently confirmed, but as it stands this is the testimony from an elected official who has access to classified Congressional briefings, for what it's worth. At minimum, this is rather solid evidence that a plan not only exists, but is probably in it's late planning phases. Otherwise, the plethora of leaks from within the Pentagon continue to point toward the same series of ideas, all from different sources: The general plan is for a short-duration, intense bombing campaign similar to Operation Epic Fury to begin after the midterms next week. Of course, Operation Epic Fury itself was supposed to be a 72 hour operation, then a 4-6 week operation, before transitioning into an 8 month war, but the scuttlebutt around Washington is that the plan is for this to be "short". Based on the unexplained scheduling changes and the recent addition of SAM sites at Mar-a-Lago, speculation abounds that whatever is about to happen, is imminent. As always time will tell, but as with most weekends during the war, the next window for possible escalations will begin upon the closing bell on Wall Street this afternoon, and carry on throughout the weekend. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 29 · 4 min

    The Wire - October 29, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: JOINT STAFF PLANNER FIRED DUE TO ALLEGED MISCONDUCT. FIRE REPORTED AT SOUTH CAROLINA NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION FACILITY, SITUATION REPORTEDLY UNDER CONTROL. TARGETING CONTINUES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND IN SAUDI ARABIA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, Iranian targeting continued in the Strait of Hormuz. One merchant vessel was struck just north of the Musandam Peninsula, while attempting to make the crossing. As of this morning, the vessel was still on fire. This afternoon, two more vessels were struck in the same general area. Within Saudi Arabia, strikes were also reported targeting the Ras Tanura refinery once again, with multiple impacts being reported by locals. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday evening LTG. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's Director for Strategy, Plans & Policy was relieved of duty. Sylvia was fired due to misconduct, however the exact nature of the dismissal has not yet been made public. Analyst Comment: Initially, an unnamed spokesperson for the Joint Staff issued a statement to The Hill, thanking him for his service and wishing him the best. Later on, the well-wishes were retracted, with the spokesperson stating that "Upon further review, we determined that the statement did not appropriately reflect the full circumstances". Inside the beltway, whenever a boilerplate "thank you for your service" template statement gets retracted, this is usually an indication that something exceptionally serious happened. Rumors have consequently been flying overnight; some claims state that he was leaking classified information to the press, and others claim he was fired for his opposition to the war. As it stands, more time and information is needed to determine what the truth actually is regarding this very public and immediate firing. South Carolina: Last night, a major incident was reported at the Savannah River National Laboratory. At approximately 05:07 pm, local authorities state that a fire broke out at the facility, which at the time was suspected of involving nuclear material. An emergency airspace closure with a 15 nautical mile radius was issued around the facility, with the flight restriction notice stating the reason was due to a "US GOVT NUCLEAR INCIDENT". A few hours after the initial notice was issued, the all-clear was given and the flight restrictions lifted. The official press release states that no contamination has been detected, and workers were allowed to return to the site for regular shift work this morning. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: The Savannah River Site houses one of the most secret facilities in the United States. During the Cold War, this facility was responsible for the production of Plutonium and the assembly of nuclear warheads as well as precursor materials needed for weapons production. At present, none of the nuclear reactors are operational at the site, however the facility is still producing Tritium for use in warhead production, and substantial amounts of radiological waste are also stored on site. Additionally, two weeks ago construction began on a brand-new $24 billion Plutonium Processing Facility to revitalize the plant and return it to more active service. As a result, this site is highly sensitive and extremely well guarded. In terms of the raw data, the assortment of radiological meters available to the public (both privately owned and NGO-run) have detected no radiation leak or contamination from outside the facility. No smoke was observed by locals either, and from the outside there has been no indication of anything abnormal. Various statements by officials initially implied that a radiation leak did occur, but did not spread beyond the facility. Later statements by officials flatly deny any contamination being reported at all. As to what actually happened last night, it's anyone's guess. When incidents take place at sensitive nuclear sites like this, there are checklists upon checklists that dictate what the response should be, based on what incident took place. The creation of a 30 mile airspace closure zone around the main complex is one of these standard procedures, however it is also a clue as to which kind of procedure was being adhered to. In short, last night's response was trending toward the worst-case scenarios that are planned for. Overreacting out of an abundance of caution is a good idea with events like this, however due to the lack of public transparency at very secret sites, the public is usually left rather concerned with no explanation usually being given due to national security reasons. Clearly, the Incident Commander thought that the fire threatened nuclear material at the time, and as a result was working down the more serious pages in the response binder. In a larger sense, incidents like this complicate an already intense information space. Due to the plethora of other unrelated incidents in the news cycle, the internet is saturated with many different stories, many of which have the intended goal of manipulation. From podcasters stoking up fear to sell freeze-dried food, to defense industry professionals trying to get contracts, there is a lot of motivation to make mountains out of molehills in the lead up to the midterm elections. This presents a unique challenge, because there are legitimate and extremely concerning issues that are unfolding right now; the cybersecurity "Black October" is still developing, the war in the Middle East is probably going to escalate soon, and the continual expansion of the Ukraine war is also cause for genuine concern. However, there's also a lot of motivation to manipulate public sentiment for a variety of reasons. As such, discernment is going to be a valuable trait to strive for, as the information space becomes saturated with both genuine emergencies and manipulative situations in the lead up to the midterms. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 28 · 3 min

    The Wire - October 28, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 28, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR TRAIN DERAILMENT REPORTED IN SPAIN. PRESIDENT TRUMP STATES THAT ANOTHER EPIC FURY-STYLE OPERATION MAY BEGIN AFTER THE MIDTERMS. PENTAGON SENDS ANOTHER PATRIOT BATTERY TO ISRAEL. NO CLEAR WINNER OF ELECTION DECLARED IN ISRAELI ELECTION. CONTAINERSHIP STRUCK BY DRONES IN BLACK SEA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Spain: This morning a major incident was reported on the Seville/Madrid rail line in the province of Toledo. Local authorities state that a Renfe train rear-ended an Iryo train that was halted on the track, as both were heading toward Seville. Concerning casualties, the collision resulted in a total of 46x fatalities, and 179x injured. The cause of the crash has not yet been disclosed officially, however initial reports indicate the Renfe train might have inadvertently been given instruction to proceed past a red signal. Middle East: Overnight the Pentagon began the deployment of another Patriot battery to Israel, with transport aircraft being noted moving the air defense system to the region. Otherwise logistical movements continue as before, with routine cargo flights remaining constant throughout the region. Analyst Comment: Last night President Trump himself stated at a rally in Florida that "we may do another little Epic Fury" after the midterm elections, directly confirming that the intent is present to return to the more kinetic phase of the war. Whether or not this is a genuine plan is debatable; President Trump has a history of changing his mind at the last minute....but with warfare, he has rarely bluffed. Considering the broad history of the war over the past eight months, the recent rhetoric is more indicative of a return to combat conditions rather than empty threats intended to sway diplomatic efforts. Black Sea: This afternoon another vessel was struck within Bulgarian waters, with the M/V CONTSHIP JET (IMO: 9348625) reporting being hit by three drones early this morning. None of the crew members were wounded, and all were rescued after abandoning ship. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within Israel, the vote count continued overnight, with no clear winner emerging by morning. Current vote counts as of this afternoon indicate that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot have received the majority needed to form a government without a coalition. Based on the official vote count so far, this is looking like a de facto victory for Netanyahu, even though his party is likely going to lose the majority lead they previously held. In Parliamentary systems around the world, parties which fail to get a majority, must form a coalition government with another party, counting that party's votes toward the total. In short, if a party can't clear 50%, they will have to join together with a smaller party to bump them up into the majority. Normally, when coalition governments are formed, political deals are made: the smaller party gets positions in government (and thus more power), and the larger party gets to form the majority of government. In this case, the margin is razor thin even a day after the polls closed. In the short term, the election is not likely to result in much immediate change, at least not within the window of potential escalation that's on the menu over the next few weeks. If neither party is able to secure a majority, Netanyahu remains Prime Minister for several more months, as some form of coalition is formed. If no agreement can be achieved, the election itself will be run once again next spring and the process starts all over again, with Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister in the meantime. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 28 · 5 min

    The Wire - October 27, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE AS EGYPT AUTHORIZES MILITARY DEPLOYMENT TO SAUDI ARABIA. BRAZILIAN ELECTION RESULTS IN LULA VICTORY, BOLSONARO REPORTEDLY FLEES TO UNITED STATES TO AVOID ARREST. BARRICADED SHOOTER SITUATION REPORTED IN MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Houthi attacks continued yesterday evening, with missile impacts being reported at the Ras Tanura petroleum hub in Saudi Arabia. Separately, a tanker vessel was struck off the coast of Kuwait yesterday which resulted in unknown damage. Egypt: On Monday, the Egyptian Parliament voted to authorize the deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia, to provide defensive forces for the Kingdom as Houthi attacks continue to escalate. Analyst Comment: There has been some speculation that Egypt might seek to get involved with the war on the Houthis, however this might be a bridge too far for the Egyptian military, which has not conducted large scale combat operations outside her borders since 1991. Nevertheless, the total troop deployment will be important to follow, as Saudi Arabia does not have a ground force capable of any major ground offensive in Yemen and the Egyptian Army would be a candidate to supplement whatever the Saudis have planned. Brazil: Last night the elections concluded with a victory for current incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Flávio Bolsonaro has not conceded defeat, and reportedly escaped the country on a private aircraft this afternoon to avoid being immediately arrested. Analyst Comment: Brazilian politics are often very high stakes, and in this case Bolsonaro was very likely to be arrested on whatever charges could be written up. Unconfirmed reporting from within the White House indicates that he was possibly extracted more directly by the United States, who had allegedly planned to get him out of the country with US assets in the event that he lost. Israel: This afternoon the national elections came to a close, with early exit polls indicating no clear winner. As of this report, Eisenkot's faction was barely leading, but the race is neck-and-neck in the hours after the polls closed. United Kingdom: This week a new series of Respect Orders went into effect, granting authorities more power to restrict the behavior of individuals throughout the nation. These new Respect Orders build on pre-existing Anti-Social Behavior Orders, which ban "behaviour by a person which causes, or is likely to cause, harassment, alarm or distress to persons not of the same household as the person". As such, individuals who may possibly cause someone stress in the future, can now be imprisoned for up to two years. London: This morning two men appeared in court on charges pertaining to their involvement in the alleged terror plot at RAF Fairford three weeks ago. The accused have been identified as Mohmed Ahmad Abdulkarim and Nouman Essghir, two individuals who were allegedly involved in some manner with the attempt to load three vans with fuel drums in an attempt to conduct some sort of attack. Analyst Comment: Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, and for those seeking to determine whether or not this incident was a false-flag operation, the evidence presented so far during this case has been very illuminating. The lead suspect being wheelchair bound due to a serious medical condition is merely the latest detail that casts doubt as to the validity of rest the investigation, which now borders on the absurd. Four of the other suspects remain at large after being granted bail, and so far no evidence has been presented whatsoever which indicates any attack was planned at all. No explosives were found and the suspects were not located near any gate or base entrance. Nevertheless, the United States has formally taken the position that this was a terror attack, after which the United Kingdom adopted the same position as well. -HomeFront- Michigan: Overnight a barricaded shooter situation was reported on Running Deer Ridge in Leroy. Local authorities state that the incident began after the suspect's parents became concerned about their son's behavior, which prompted law enforcement becoming involved last night. Upon arrival, the situation immediately devolved into a standoff, as the suspect remained barricaded within the family residence. During the standoff, a total of two police drones were shot down, which prompted civil aviation at the nearby Battle Creek Executive Airport to halt operations for some time. Eventually, the standoff came to an end after the suspect set the structure on fire from within. Only one fatality was reported (the suspect) who has been identified as 35 year old Travis Baker. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Around the world, governments have continued to urge their populations to prepare for calamity, in the event that conflict comes to their various homelands. The United Kingdom has been carrying out their "Be Ready" preparedness campaign since last week, along with similar campaigns in Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and many others. Japan has also rolled out their latest disaster response plan to dramatically increase the stockpiled resources in the event of emergency, however Japan's system is almost entirely constructed around earthquake preparedness and not the warfare/conflict that Europe is expecting. Due to these efforts taking place around the same time as yesterday's announcement from the Pentagon regarding domestic military preparedness efforts, concerns are growing throughout the western world. To be sure, there is great financial incentive to generate panic buying, which must always be considered as well. At the moment, there is only one major flashpoint that might imminently result in regional instability, which is the potential return to more active combat conditions in the Middle East. However, even if the worst should happen in that case, the impacts within the homeland would not be as apocalyptic as social media might lead people to believe. Rational, proportionate, reasonable, and feasible preparedness efforts are always recommended, but there is currently no specific threat that would warrant panic buying or unplanned readiness measures. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 27 · 4 min

    The Wire - October 26, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PENTAGON ANNOUNCES PREPAREDNESS PLANS REGARDING MILITARY BASES WITHIN THE UNITED STATES. NETANYAHU ACCUSED OF TREASON FOR PLANNING OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS TO DELAY ELECTIONS. DIPLOMATIC VISITS TAKE PLACE IN IRAN AS GULF STATES SEEK TO CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DEESCALATE THE WAR.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: Over the weekend, Iran conducted more ballistic missile tests, continuing the trend of earlier last week. Several launches of ballistic missiles were noted at several missile cities, as IRGC forces conducted tests of newer missile components that they have been able to develop and produce during the war. In Tehran, diplomatic endeavors continue as representatives from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met to further de-escalation measures regarding the war, and to continue the dialog between all parties. Analyst Comment: This meeting is a big deal as this is the most public effort by Saudi Arabia to seek terms for peace. Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) sending his brother (the Defense Minister) to Tehran on peaceable terms is a diplomatic move that has not gone unnoticed by the United States and Israel. How this works out is anyone's guess, but many speculate that these are the initial first steps toward Saudi Arabia cutting a deal with the Iranians to pressure the Houthis to stop their attacks. Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks have intensified over the past few days, with substantial missile and drone attacks being reported along the Saudi East-West Pipeline. Abnormal flaring was observed at two pumping stations on Saturday, along with several large fires at petroleum storage depots as well. Russia: The Embassy in Tehran denied reports of evacuations over the weekend, stating that evacuations have not taken place and that they are operating as usual within Iran. Military flights continued over the weekend, however the exact nature of the cargo flights into Tehran is not known. Israel: As election day approaches, PM Netanyahu has stated that Iran has restarted their nuclear program, and are also planning to attack Israel to disrupt the elections tomorrow. Last night, former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman formally filed a request within the Knesset to open an investigation into PM Netanyahu on charges of treason, for his effort to restart the war with Iran to disrupt elections. Analyst Comment: At the eleventh hour, internal Israeli politics are rather important as the political situation cannot be extricated from the military situation. Many of Netanyahu's opponents within the Israeli government have countered his statements on Iranian attack plans, with many critics stating that he's fabricating the threat for political gain. Over the weekend, rumors emerged that Netanyahu had actually given the order to attack Iran, however IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir pushed back on the order. Some say that he requested the order in writing and dragged his feet on the implementation, while other sources claim he flat out refused the order entirely. At the moment these claims are unconfirmed, however that's what's on the front page of domestic Israeli news organizations on the eve of their election day. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - The Pentagon announced a new initiative, Project FORTRESS, which is a preparedness plan to ensure that military bases within the United States could operate without any outside support for 90 days, in the event of enemy attack. This program is intended to come online within the next few years, with planning efforts beginning shortly. Analyst Comment: This plan was initially announced back in September as part of a list of other modernization programs, though at the time few details were released. The exact details of this plan have still not been released yet, but the plan seems to mostly center around electrical power needs. Pentagon officials are preparing for military bases to be able to function without electricity from the civilian power grid for at least three months. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Preparedness is often a paradox. On one hand, preparing for emergencies is generally a good thing, and allows for citizens to easily weather a disaster as comfortably as possible. However, when governments dial up disaster planning (particularly military planning), one might be inclined to think that government officials are planning to do something that would require those preparedness efforts in the first place. As a result, it's a delicate balance to manage reasonable preparedness, without causing undue concern throughout the populace. In the case of Project FORTRESS and many other more recent Pentagon modernization programs, this balance has not been achieved because it is purely military in nature...there are no similar efforts to modernize civilian disaster preparedness agencies at the same scale and budget as this military project. The Pentagon primarily focusing this project on CONUS military bases is rather concerning, as it indicates that situations may arise which results in a loss of electrical power throughout the nation, for up to three months. Of course, 90 days is a nice round planning figure, but military bases storing enough diesel and gasoline to run generators for three months is a gargantuan planning effort all on it's own. More storage tanks will have to be built, more generators will have to be purchased, miniaturized nuclear reactors will be needed to be brought online, and an extremely substantial logistical effort will need to take place for this goal to be achieved. At minimum, if the military is internally planning to ensure their own survival during a 90-day blackout of all public utilities within the homeland, this would be a wise planning factor for prepared citizens to consider as well. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 24 · 25 min

    Intel Update - Oct. 24 - Unraveling

    Research Notes/Bibliography can be found here: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Common Intelligence Picture: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00 Border Crisis Map: https://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=7f13eda1f301431e98a7ac0393b0e6b0 TOC Dashboard: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/ebe374c40c1a4231a06075155b0e8cb9/ 00:00 - Global Overview 02:17 - Europe on Fire 05:34 - Strategic Movement 06:52 - Middle East 08:29 - Indications and Warning 20:24 - GhostNet Download the GhostNet plan here! https://github.com/s2underground/GhostNet The text version of the Wire can be found on Twitter: https://twitter.com/s2_underground And on our Wire Telegram page here: https://t.me/S2undergroundWire If you would like to support us, we're on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=30479515 Disclaimer: No company sponsored this video. In fact, we have ZERO sponsors. We are funded 100% by you, the viewer. All of our funding comes from direct support from platforms like Patreon, or from ad revenue on YouTube. Without your support, I simply could not do this work at all, so to those of you who chose to support my efforts, I am eternally thankful. Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/S2Underground BitChute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/P2NMGFdt3gf3/ Just a few reminders for everyone who's just become aware of us, in order to keep these briefings from being several hours long, I can't cover everything. I'm probably covering 1% of the world events when we conduct these briefings, so please remember that if I left it out, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's unimportant. Also, remember that I do these briefings quite often, so I might have covered an issue previously that you might not see if you are only watching our most recent videos. I'm also doing this in my spare time, so again I fully admit that these briefings aren't even close to being perfect; I'm going for a healthy blend of speed and quality. If I were to wait and only post a brief when it's "perfect" I would never post anything at all. So expect some minor errors here and there. If there is a major error or correction that needs to be made, I will post it here in the description, and verbally address it in the next briefing. Also, thanks for reading this far. It is always surprising the number of people that don't actually read the description box to find more information. This content is purely educational and does not advocate for violating any laws. Do not violate any laws or regulations. This is not legal advice. Consult with your attorney. Our Reading List! https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/133747963-s2-actual The War Kitchen Channel! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYmtpjXT22tAWGIlg_xDDPA

  • October 23 · 4 min

    The Wire - October 23, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SHOOTINGS REPORTED IN FRANCE. IRAN REACTIVATES MOSAIC DEFENSE PLAN, HARDENING THEIR COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS IN THE EVENT OF ATTACK. EL SALVADOR LAUNCHES MILITARY OPERATION IN HAITI TO RESCUE CAPTURED SOLDIERS. NEW WORLD SCREWWORM DETECTED IN TEXAS WILDLIFE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: This morning a series of drive-by shootings were reported throughout the suburbs of Paris. The first shooting was reported in the Trappes area, before the suspect maneuvered to the La Verrière district, shooting at random pedestrians along the way. The crime scene encompasses several square miles and as of this report, locations impacted by small arms fire are still being cataloged by police. The lone suspect was detained by police, though as of this report the circumstances of his arrest are not clear. Concerning victims, 1x fatality has been confirmed so far, with 3-6 others wounded as a result of the attack. More details are expected as the situation develops. Haiti: El Salvadoran troops arrived in Port au Prince this morning, expanding their presence in Haiti following the deterioration of gang activity on the island. El Salvador has been involved in the Gang Suppression Task Force mission, a UN-chartered mission to combat violent gangs and restore order throughout Haitian society. Last weekend, a patrol of Salvadoran soldiers was ambushed by gangs, with four service members being taken captive. This morning, a large contingent of Salvadoran troops landed in Port au Prince, to stage for the upcoming rescue mission of the captives, as well as clearance operations throughout the city. Analyst Comment: Though it has taken time to organize the response to this crisis, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, the legendary leader known for his extremely harsh crackdown on gangs in his nation, is not messing around. Gangs throughout the various slums in Port au Prince are preparing for a wider war, and it's very likely that intense combat operations are going to kick off within the next few days. In short, this is undoubtedly going to get very violent, very quickly. -HomeFront- Texas: Yesterday the USDA confirmed that at least one case of New World Screwworm has been detected in wildlife, confirming that the parasite has transitioned to wild fauna and not just commercially raised cattle. The detection was made in Pecos County, and was noted in an infected elk. Nebraska: STRATCOM announced the kickoff of exercise GLOBAL THUNDER 27, this year's strategic demonstration of force and training scenario intended to ensure the effectiveness of strategic deterrence. Analyst Comment: This exercise is completely normal but in the context of the wider impending war in the Middle East, these drills present the side-benefit of obfuscating the deployment of strategic assets. Many plane-watchers are going to have a hard time determining which movement of bombers is part of the drill...and which assets are taking off to conduct bombings in the Middle East. USA: Around the nation, this morning Brent crude futures surged to over $114/bbl during early morning trading, with WTI crude passing $100/bbl as well. Gas and diesel prices have continued to rise nationwide over the past few days, as most mitigation efforts (such as the suspension of gasoline taxes in midwestern states) are beginning to reach the limit of their effectiveness. Cyber: Overnight a data breach was announced involving Quest Diagnostics, a major data firm responsible for providing services to most hospitals and medical institutions around the United States. The breach includes the leak of patient data such as billing records, however Quest has not stated how many patients have been affected. More information is expected as the investigation into the breach continues. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within the Middle East, Iranian sources claimed that the IRGC has activated their Mosaic defensive command and control doctrine, which allows regional commanders more autonomy in making decisions in the event that communications are severed with higher command structures. Serving as Iran's version of a deadman switch, this command system allows local commanders to choose targets and launch missiles on their own, if they are cut off from higher command. This is the exact same doctrine that was in place before the war began, and was the main reason for why the IRGC was devastatingly effective during the first few weeks of the war, even though a large percentage of IRGC high command was killed. If these reports are true, Iran shifting to this doctrine once again is a major indicator that Iran expects large-scale attacks imminently. Whether or not this will happen remains debatable, but right now the Iranians are absolutely convinced that it's not a matter of 'if' the US will attack, but 'when' strikes will resume. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 22 · 3 min

    The Wire - October 22, 2026

    //The Wire//2100Z October 22, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FRANCE ATTEMPTS TO CRACK DOWN ON PROTEST ACTIVITY BEFORE THE WEEKEND. INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO MOUNT REGARDING RETURN TO WAR IN MIDDLE EAST, STATE DEPARTMENT CONFIRMS PERSONNEL DRAWDOWNS IN SAUDI ARABIA. CONSEQUENCES OF MAJOR CYBERSECURITY EVENTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SEVERITY.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: This morning authorities have issued blanket bans on protests in some areas, due to the potential for last weekend's unrest to be repeated. All protests have been banned throughout the entire city of Lyon, and within Paris gatherings are prohibited in some districts as the curfews stay in place. Most major cities are banning protests unless conducted by unions and registered with the government. Middle East: Late-stage preparations regarding a return to the shooting phase of the war continue to mount. Last night, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott attempted to fact-check a post on social media regarding personnel changes in the region, but in doing so he directly confirmed that State Department employees and their families are being evacuated from Saudi Arabia. Within the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian targeting efforts continue regularly. Yesterday, Iran struck a total of 4x tanker vessels, none of which have been confirmed by the UKMTO yet. Analyst Comment: On the rhetorical front, the situation is not looking good. Statements made by White House officials (and President Trump himself) indicate that a preemptive strike on Iran is possibly imminent. Last night while standing on the tarmac preparing to board Air Force One, President Trump directly stated that negotiations with Iran are not ongoing, and heavily implied that strikes will be taking place immediately after the midterms. Within Israel, PM Netanyahu has begun an intensive media campaign, stating that their intelligence indicates that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, and that "there is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, to topple the regime in Iran, and that is my directive to the IDF". -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Around the world, the cybersecurity incidents of the past few days continue to expand in severity. In short, this week is certainly one for the history books for the IT world. Regarding the PHP vulnerability, the NSA, FBI, CISA, most of Europe, and the Prime Minister of Japan have offered up two solutions, and two solutions only...immediately update servers, or unplug them completely. This applies to roughly 70% of the entire internet, and some estimates claim that roughly 35% of all websites are unpatchable as they run on a version of PHP which is too old to be fixed. Within a few days, up to a third of the entire internet might be gone forever, if those web servers are not manually rebuilt from scratch. Yesterday, thousands of websites went offline, to include the government websites of France, the Netherlands, Finland, Japan, and dozens of others relying on PHP. Everything from Wikipedia to home media servers are affected, and manual intervention is needed in order for most internet-connected servers to be fixed. More broadly, many professionals are calling it "Black October" due to the severity and the impact of the events that have unfolded over the past few days. In addition to the PHP vulnerability and the eMudhra saga, around a dozen other completely separate issues have popped up, nearly all of which would have grabbed headlines on their own. Most of these vulnerabilities were in place a decade ago, and are only being discovered (or exploited) right now, a short time before major elections in Israel and the United States. The nature of the problem itself also makes it worse: Unfortunately, a significant portion of the world depends on random servers running in someone's dusty closet since 2009, and since the solution right now is patch it or unplug it, the true impact of this will not be known until more bad things happen. To say that the IT world is freaking out would be putting it mildly, even though the full scale of what's happened will take weeks to determine. In terms of real-world impact, most normal people won't see the severity of what's happened (or even be aware of it at all) with the exception of various websites going down for a short time. The real damage will surface months from now, after malign actors have time to exploit whatever vulnerabilities existed, but weren't fixed fast enough. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 21 · 2 min

    The Wire - October 21, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR HAZMAT INCIDENT REPORTED IN OHIO AFTER CHEMICAL TANK EXPLOSION. MIDDLE EAST REMAINS TENSE AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE. TARGETING OF MERCHANT VESSELS REMAINS CONSTANT IN PERSIAN GULF.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: Yesterday the Iranians claimed that the United States and/or Israel struck a coastal defense site, which resulted in an anti-aircraft gun being destroyed. CENTCOM denies these reports, and there's not much from the Iranian side to prove it wasn't an accident or something else entirely. Separately, this evening another strike was reported in Sirik, though no details have been provided by either side yet. Middle East: Iranian attacks on shipping continue, with a handful of ships being struck over the past few days in the Strait of Hormuz. Around the region, preparations continue to lay the groundwork for hostilities to recommence. Over the past few days Israeli forces have conducted at least two sorties over southern Iraq, surging fighter aircraft into Iraqi airspace before withdrawing without conducting any combat operations. Analyst Comment: Yesterday, SECWAR Hegseth conducted a surprise visit to Israel to meet with PM Netanyahu regarding the future status of the war, though his exact reasons for traveling and the topics of conversation have not yet been disclosed. This afternoon unconfirmed reporting from within the State Department indicates that the families of embassy staffers around the region are quietly being relocated out of what are expected to be hot zones (such as Saudi Arabia). These claims have not yet been verified specifically, however drawdowns of diplomats has been ongoing for a while, with the State Department issuing increasingly more serious travel advisories over the past few weeks. -HomeFront- Ohio: This morning a chemical leak was reported at the MC Tank facility in North Toledo. Shortly before sunrise, large vapor clouds were observed at the facility, which rapidly spread to the surrounding area. The circumstances of the initial event are unclear, however at some point a tank containing glycidyl methacrylate ruptured and/or leaked which caused toxic fumes to cover the area. A 1 mile evacuation zone was placed around the facility containing the leak, and locals up to three miles away were advised to take a shower if they were outside during the explosion and were contaminated. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: So far, the response to the Ohio crisis has presented more questions than answers. During this morning's press briefing, local authorities did not have a clear picture of how toxic this chemical really is. This lack of knowledge is to be expected to some degree in the minutes after a disaster takes place; this specific chemical is not listed in the latest version of the DoT's Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG), which is the standard guide for determining how bad a particular chemical is during a disaster. However, analysis of the Google Streetview data available for the incident site reveals many isotainers marked with UN number 2922, indicating the contents of many of these containers may produce corrosive and/or toxic fumes. Local reports corroborate the serious nature of this incident, as citizens have reported burning lungs and eyes some distance away from the incident site. As of this afternoon the emergency response remains in place, and the investigation into the origins of the incident continues. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 21 · 6 min

    The Wire Special Report - 1300Z October 21, 2026

    //The Wire//1300Z October 21, 2026// //SPECIAL REPORT// //BLUF: MAJOR CYBERSECURITY VULNERABILITIES EXPOSED GLOBALLY, AS TWO SEPARATE MAJOR CODING FLAWS AFFECT MAJORITY OF INTERNET-CONNECTED DEVICES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Global: Around the world, two major cybersecurity incidents are underway. The first incident involves an Indian cybersecurity firm using poor cybersecurity practices in generating Certificate Authorities, which might allow malign actors to exploit web-connected devices. The second issue revolves around an exploit discovered in the PHP programing language, which could allow malign actors to intercept traffic to and from affected web servers, and theoretically take control of them. Analyst Comment: Today will be a very interesting day for the internet. Neither issue is worth undue panic, but these incidents are causing questions for the bedrock of internet security. In terms of what the average user should do, today will be "update day" for the majority of the planet. Anyone who runs internet-connected home servers, hobby PC's, or muddles in the tech world at all, will probably want to update their systems sometime today. For more causal internet users, the immediate actions that would be helpful are simply to adhere to good internet security practices: Enabling two-factor authentication for web-connected devices, not re-using passwords, and being aware that phishing attempts will be extremely likely over the next few days, which will seek to capitalize on these major vulnerabilities. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The timing of two major cybersecurity incidents taking place at the same time is exceptionally rare and very remarkable. To be clear, these issues are totally separate from each other, with neither one causing the other. However, due to the sheer scale of both incidents, it's possible that some sort of compounding effect could be achieved. One major global tech vulnerability is bad enough, but two on the same day is very serious. Knowing the rough details of how both incidents came to be, is helpful for understanding the seriousness of these events. The first incident revolves around a vulnerability being discovered within the ecosystem for issuing certificates for various websites. Under normal conditions, when a person visits a website (such as (https:)//www.google.com), a certificate is used to ensure that the website is genuine. Essentially, the web browser itself cross-checks that website with a trusted authority (called a Certificate Authority), which vouches for that website being genuine. This happens after the website gives the webs browser it's certificate, which the browser or app can automatically check against a big list of genuine certificates, to make sure the certificate provided by the website matches what it should be. 18 months ago, the Indian cybersecurity firm eMudhra issued a series bad certificates that had extremely low security; instead of being a long string of numbers which would be hard to crack, some certificates ended up being only the number 4. Since these certificates were genuine, and came from a genuine trusted authority, websites and platforms which trusted these bad keys are now at major risk of exploitation, and malign actors could forge fake keys for any website on Earth, and the fakes would be accepted by most devices (because the keys are genuine, they're just bad). To frame the magnitude of this incident with an analogy, imagine that a large safe company builds a safe that uses a master code to get into their safes. And after selling and installing a bunch of those safes in homes around the world for 18 months, it becomes clear that the master code to get into most of those safes, was the number 4. Under the right conditions, someone who finds the safe could theoretically guess the code without the owner ever doing anything wrong on their part. More importantly, a thief could access the safe for as long as they want (using the master "code"), and the owner would be none the wiser. Now imagine that a thief actually had access to the safe company, and could generate a master key of their own, that would work with any safe sold by that company. That's essentially what has been happening for 18 months. As far as how many websites have actually been compromised, the true number is not known. Theoretically, this incident has the potential to affect every single website and internet-connected device on the planet. eMudhra themselves state that zero fake certificates have been issued using this vulnerability. So in terms of magnitude, the potential scale of this is somewhere between zero, and every device on Earth. Considering that eMudhra themselves allowed this shockingly bad incident to take place (and not being noticed by two separate security audits), trust in this company is quite low. Moreover, this vulnerability will probably be made worse by an exponentially more serious separate incident that was disclosed overnight. The second major cybersecurity incident which was revealed overnight, revolves around a problem being discovered within the PHP programming language. As noted with the eMudhra vulnerability, when a user visits a website, a lot of stuff happens in the background. Certificates get exchanged, databases are consulted, and if all goes well, data is sent to a user's device to load the webpage. PHP is one of the programming languages used to make all of this happen. As of early this morning, a vulnerability was discovered within this programming language itself, which can allow malign actors to breach web servers, by leveraging a vulnerability in the way that PHP handles data from the server. In this way, the PHP vulnerability is much like the eMudhra vulnerability, in that both can allow malign actors to gain unauthorized access to systems. The differences are that both vulnerabilities are completely separate and unrelated...but in theory one could compound on the other, especially since IT departments are scrambling to fix both issues right now. The PHP incident is more serious, because the details were leaked before patches were written, and malign actors were indeed observed trying to take advantage of the vulnerability ahead of it's discovery. Normally, major cybersecurity incidents are not disclosed on a more widespread basis, until patches have been rolled out to fix the problem. This is to prevent malign actors which might not have noticed the vulnerability from knowing about it and capitalizing on it. In this case however, the vulnerability was so severe, that the PHP Foundation released the notice before patches went live. The British National Cyber Security Centre even went as far as to suggest organizations bring their systems offline until a patch is released...in some cases this vulnerability is significant enough to warrant pulling server racks, and websites/servers going offline completely, until the fix is pushed out. As of this morning, many government websites were taken offline globally, and throughout the day millions of websites will also probably be taken offline by IT departments as a precautionary measure, until fixes can be rolled out. In terms of mitigating both events, the most substantial risk will be for internet connected devices which do not receive regular updates. Using a smartphone or a regular web browser will be fine as mass updates were already pushed out days ago, before the disclosure of the certificate vulnerability was made public. The real risk will be for 'Internet of Things' or IoT devices: Smart thermostats, portable power stations, lawn irrigation systems, doorbells, smart TV's and appliances, utility meters, streetlights, dash cams, remote data servers, and many other older devices that have internet connectivity, and still use the bad set of keys. These are the kind of IT disasters that get technicians woken up during the night, and in both cases IT departments around the world are rapidly patching their own devices to fix the vulnerability now that two major cybersecurity incidents are public, and have the potential to become much more serious problems within the cyber realm. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 21 · 4 min

    The Wire - October 20, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SAUDI ARABIA CANCELS UPCOMING ECONOMIC SUMMIT DUE TO HOUTHI THREATS. FRANCE ACTIVATES ARMY TO PREPARE FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND PROTESTS/RIOTS. UKRAINE ACCUSES UNITED STATES OF HOLDING UP SHIPMENT OF PATRIOT MISSILES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- France: With the implementation of curfews throughout some districts of Paris, substantial deployments of police forces were noted throughout the city overnight. Before nightfall, riots had already broken out in some areas despite the curfews, but in other areas the situation remained calm due to the overwhelming police presence throughout many cities. Counter-protests have also become more common after the chaos of the weekend, and many random groups of citizens have begun the cleanup and restoration of order in Paris. This afternoon, France announced the deployment of the Army throughout major cities next weekend, with soldiers expected to provide security during the wave of protests expected on Saturday. Europe: This morning an IT outage was reported with Google Cloud services throughout the continent. Within the U.K. banking services were most heavily affected, though many other random services were affected within the tech sector. The outages did not affect customers' money or personal accounts, but systems were offline for a few hours. The cause of the outage has not been specified, however several companies have stated that it might have been the result of a power loss incident at a data center. Ukraine: This morning Zelenskyy stated that the Pentagon has blocked/delayed the latest shipment of munitions for Ukraine. Specifically, Zelenskyy claimed that his latest shipment of Patriot interceptor missiles has been delayed due to a hold up within SECWAR Hegseth's office. SECSTATE Marco Rubio acknowledged the delay this afternoon, however he did not state that it was due to policy but rather a supply issue due to the currently high demand for interceptor missiles. This comes a few days after the Starlink scandal, in which Zelenskyy also accused the US government and/or SpaceX of limiting the speed of Starshield (the military version of Starlink), which the US has denied having a role in affecting. United Kingdom: Overnight the Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters to Saudi Arabia, to conduct missions in an air defense capacity throughout the Kingdom. Per the press release, British forces will not be conducting offensive missions targeting the Houthis in Yemen, but will instead be focused on intercepting missile attacks. -HomeFront- North Carolina: Last night the Department of Justice announced a settlement between the federal government and the University of North Carolina regarding their admission standards and academic operations. Per the terms of the settlement, in addition to abiding by all preexisting civil rights laws, all students will be required to take "mandatory antisemitism training". Per the exact terms of the settlement this training program was not described in detail, other than being mandatory for all students, faculty, and staff. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Within the Middle East, preparations continue to indicate most regional players are expecting the war to reignite within a few weeks. However, the focus of this expected intensification is up for debate...by now it could just as easily be the Houthis which escalate the war as it could be the United States and Iran. This is most clearly demonstrated within Saudi Arabia. The upcoming Future Investment Initiative (FII) Conference has been postponed until next year, due to the threats posed by Houthi missiles and drones. This conference being postponed is a big deal; this summit is colloquially called "Davos in the Desert" due to the hundreds of billions of dollars that are on the line in terms of investments within Saudi Arabia. Canceling this summit is a major loss of prestige for the House of Saud, however Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman (MBS) is worried enough about the Houthis that the loss of prestige was worth the trade, to prevent very wealthy benefactors from being struck by missiles. With the United Kingdom now entering the war with the Houthis to some degree, this will present more flashpoints to watch out for. The Houthis know that third-party nations sending forces to the region is not exactly a de-escalatory measure, but they also know that Saudi Arabia and the United States have been bombing Yemen with the finest weapons money can buy for over a decade without much result at the strategic level. So even if the United Kingdom (and/or the US) were to kick off more strikes with the Houthis, another bombing campaign is not likely to put a dent in Ansar Allah's aspirations for autonomy. Even with the substantial missile defenses around the nation, and the supplement of British and American forces staging to help provide air cover in the desert skies, it's still not enough to prevent very embarrassing attacks by the Houthis. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

  • October 20 · 7 min

    The Wire - October 19, 2026

    //The Wire//2300Z October 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MASS CASUALTY EVENT REPORTED AT CANADIAN MILITARY BASE AFTER WILDFIRE SPREADS RAPIDLY THROUGH TRAINING AREA. RIOTS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE IN FRANCE. RIOTS REPORTED IN ALBANIA DUE TO CORRUPTION CONCERNS. MORE THREAT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AS PREPARATIONS CONTINUE FOR A POSSIBLE WIDENING OF THE WAR.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Canada: Saturday afternoon, a mass casualty incident was declared at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Wainwright, following a major incident that occurred during training. At approximately 4:00pm local time, a wildfire broke out in the training area at roughly the same time a strong outflow boundary was approaching the base. Within a matter of minutes, the resulting high winds caused the fire to shift direction toward hundreds of service members taking part in training operations. Due to the catastrophic nature of the fire, the true casualty count is unknown. A total of 4x fatalities have been confirmed, however more victims are expected. 39x others were injured, 19x of which are in critical care. Analyst Comment: The circumstances of the incident's origin are unclear, however claims have been made by eyewitnesses on the base disputing the origin of the fire. Officially, the cause of the fire is under investigation and has not yet been disclosed. However the press statements presented by officials have been extremely carefully worded to due to the ongoing investigations. Whatever the cause of the incident (either a training accident or a genuine wildfire situation) decisions were made which lead to the deaths of Canadian soldiers, so the investigation into what happened will take time. France: Riots continued to escalate over the weekend, as arson attacks and states of unrest remained constant in most major cities throughout the nation. Many government buildings and structures have been set alight, and looting has become commonplace in many cities due to the unrest. This afternoon, curfews were emplaced for the Republique and Châtelet districts of Paris, as more rioting is expected throughout the next few days. Albania: Mass riots have continued throughout the nation after the Supreme Court ruled that Jared Kushner's luxury resort project on Sazan Island can go forward. Protests began last week and have been intensifying for several days, before reaching a flashpoint over the weekend, which was spurred on by Prime Minister Rama refusing to resign. Yesterday the Supreme Court was burned down, after rioters breached the compound, and set the building on fire. Analyst Comment: This situation has been brewing for a while, and has been a major focus for Albanians for several months. The Kushner project on Sazan has been a major source of both protests, but also corruption concerns. Locals claim that their Prime Minister has been paid off, and that he's selling off major national real estate for personal gain. As a result, these riots will be worthy of monitoring more closely due to the potential for instability to spread throughout the Balkans. Middle East: Travel warnings throughout the region continue, as US Embassies in nearly the entire Middle East have issued more pressing travel advisories warning of an imminent increase in wartime conditions. Other than the United States, the diplomatic missions of most other western-aligned nations have issued similar warnings, indicating that preparations are being made for the war to expand at some point. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Early this morning a shooting was reported on 8th Street SE, which resulted in a National Guard soldier being wounded. Local authorities state that a street fight erupted in front of the Engine Company 18 Firehouse just before midnight. A vehicle containing a squad of National Guard soldiers was parked on the street at the time the fight broke out, with the soldiers exiting the vehicle to stop the fight. Immediately after the squad exited the vehicle, one suspect produced a firearm, which resulted in a small arms engagement in street, with three soldiers returning fire during the skirmish. One soldier sustained a gunshot wound to the leg, and the suspect was also shot during the engagement. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comment: Many of the riots underway around the world are the real deal, and appear to be transitioning into more of a protracted state of global civil unrest. However, most of the reasons for the rioting vary widely between nations. In short, the various states of unrest around the world are summarized as follows: France: Student/economic protests turned riot, large migrant communes looting. Belgium: Student protests turned riot, inspired by French riots. Albania: Kushner/Rama protests turned anti-corruption riots. Argentina: Student protests turned anti-Milei/anti-corruption riots. Brazil: Riots over election integrity after Bolsonaro refuses to resign. Mexico: Riots due to drinking water contamination in Guadalajara. Italy: Riots due to rising fuel costs, some student riots similar to France. France is the epicenter for much of the unrest, and the development and motivations for the French riots are complicated. The origin of the riots is multi-fold; these events started as student protests regarding conditions in schools, as well as more general economic concerns. At the same time, there was an element of children from second and third-generation migrant families, which were protesting government spending being cut for them in schools. These protests started under relatively low-level social terms, but after the first day this initial spark rapidly transitioned (within a matter of hours) into a series of much larger issues, and now, several different factions are participating in the fray. What started small has turned out the be a pressure relief valve for tensions that have been boiling for weeks. Students are engaging in bedlam in most areas, migrant communities are looting whatever they can, pro-Palestine and ANTIFA activists are conducting their own riots for their own reasons, and now, many regular French citizens are protesting as well due to the high costs of fuel brought on by the war in the Middle East. Perhaps the clearest view of the types of demographics rioting, are the raw, unfiltered videos from the riots themselves. Many people are emotionally and politically invested in avoiding the migration element to the looting and violence throughout the nation. Many videos indicate a lot rioters are of African descent, and even for those who seek to be as neutral as possible, it is challenging to find videos (not still images that can be more easily selectively framed, but raw videos) which do not feature individuals of non-French heritage. To be sure, there are a lot of ethnic French citizens engaging in the original protests that started this all, and many are indeed rioting as well. Determining exactly how much of the unrest is local unrest vs. migrant unrest will take time, as the situation is incredibly nuanced and there are certainly interests on all sides which seek to scapegoat their adversaries while also downplaying other demographics. As of this evening, this is even more complicated as pro-police demonstrators have gathered in certain areas to protest against the riots (protests which have remained low-intensity gatherings for now). In terms of the riots in other nations that are coordinated with the French riots, the unrest in Belgium and Italy are most similar to the unrest that is underway in France. Belgium popped off around the same time as France, due to a lot of cross-border traffic allowing easy access to major metropolitan areas outside France. The riots in Italy are also somewhat related, however Italy's problems mostly have arisen more directly from the economic realm, as agricultural protests regarding fuel prices began a few days ago, which presented the distractions necessary for looters to break into stores. Most of the looting appears to have taken place a decent distance from the farmer protests, unlike in France which has presented the old standby tactic of "peaceful protesters" starting off just fine during the day, but putting on masks and breaking things once night falls. Within Argentina, Brazil, Albania, Mexico, and other nations currently experiencing unrest, riots are being conducted for their own reasons, which vary by locale. Timing wise, many are speculating that it's odd for all of these protests to come about on the same weekend. However this is not true; Mexico's riots have been brewing for months, with several smaller riots taking place earlier this month. France's protests have been ongoing for weeks, and Albania's protests have been constant for several months. It would be worthwhile to examine whether or not some of these riots are being funded more directly, however at this point it's going to be a case-by-case evaluation which is not going to be easy. What is certain, is that within France the riots will continue for some time, and likely grow in severity as the main elements driving the chaos (the migration situation, and the energy crisis) remain unaddressed. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT// ADMIN NOTE: Slight edit, the remarks on Brazil should have been worded better. Bolsonaro is obviously not in office anymore, instead of "resign" I should have said "concede". (as a lot of the unrest is centered around his son's quest to return his family to power). I should have made that more clear, sorry.

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