Prediction Market Movers

Prediction News

Each week, Chris Gerlacher talks to industry insiders, financial analysts and legal experts on all of the latest developments in prediction markets.

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#48
Wednesday · 27 min
How Public Is Bringing AI Agents to Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher chats with Leif Abraham, Co-Founder & Co-CEO of Public, to discuss the evolution of Public into an agentic, multi-asset brokerage and why the company recently added prediction markets through its partnership with Kalshi. Abraham explains how Public is using AI agents to automate trading strategies, portfolio management, risk management, and other financial decisions. He discusses how agents can help investors execute systematic strategies, reduce emotional decision-making, and connect different asset classes within a single portfolio. He also explains how Public built its agentic technology to separate AI reasoning from deterministic trade execution. Chris and Leif also discuss what will differentiate brokerages as prediction markets and other new financial products become more widely available, Public’s focus on digital-native investors, the role of product design and AI, the company’s rapid pace of innovation, and what’s next for Public as it continues expanding its multi-asset platform. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - What separates you from other brokerage firms? 2:30 Ai agent portfolio management 4:25 - Benefits of ai agents 6:50 - Source of Ai 9:40 - How the AI adjust with backtesting 11:25 - Why focus on active traders? 13:45 - Why PM trading? 16:25 - Will perp trading be on Public? 17:20 - New trading strategies with perp trading 18:15 - What will separate different brokerages apart? 21:20 - Why were AI agents were a priority for the company? 24:20 - The future of Public #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #LeifAbraham #Public #Kalshi #PredictionNews #AIAgents #AgenticTrading #EventContracts #Perpetuals #Investing #Fintech #CFTC
#47
September 23 · 30 min
CJ Hetherington on Building a Global Prediction Market | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlach of Prediction News sits down with CJ Hetherington, Co-Founder & CEO of Limitless Exchange, to discuss the company’s origins, the growth of prediction markets, and how Limitless is building its place in an increasingly competitive industry. Hetherington explains what Limitless learned from Kalshi and Polymarket, the challenges of bootstrapping liquidity, and why he believes prediction markets have significant opportunities beyond sports and elections. He discusses Limitless’ global on-chain strategy, its focus on international consumers, and its plans to build a regulated U.S. venue for institutional customers and risk-transfer markets. The conversation also covers DeFi regulation, KYC, self-custody, AI trading agents, CFTC oversight, and perpetual futures. CJ explains how AI agents could participate in prediction markets, the regulatory questions they create, and the differences between fully collateralized event contracts and leveraged perpetual futures. Chris and CJ also discuss prediction-market liquidity, specialized exchanges, global expansion, aggregating Kalshi and Polymarket liquidity, custom trading packs, peer-to-peer markets, and the future of Limitless. Plus, CJ shares what’s next for the company as it works toward launching its U.S. regulated exchange. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - How he got into PMs 5:30 - Limitless’ unique value 7:55 - Views on regulation 9:20 - KYC requirements 10:40 - Risks 12:50 - Allowing AI agents 14:50 - The struggles both event contracts and perps 18:50 - Differences in International markets 22:00 - Building an exchange 25:35 - On specialty markets 28:00 - What’s next for Limitless? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #CJHetherington #LimitlessExchange #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #CFTC #Crypto #DeFi #EventContracts #Perpetuals
#46
September 18 · 44 min
Gary DeWaal on Sports Contracts, Perps & CFTC Preemption | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Gary DeWaal, a veteran CFTC and derivatives law expert, for a deep dive into the history and future of prediction markets, futures regulation, and the ongoing legal battles surrounding sports event contracts. DeWaal shares his perspective from decades in derivatives law, including his time at the CFTC. The conversation examines the long-running tension between state gambling laws and federally regulated futures markets, from the Statute of Anne and early bucket-shop laws to the Commodity Exchange Act and modern CFTC preemption. DeWaal explains his interpretation of how sports event contracts fit within the CFTC's jurisdiction and why he believes the definition of swaps and the federal preemption framework are central to the current prediction market litigation. Chris and DeWaal also break down Kalshi's Ninth Circuit litigation, the distinction between betting and exchange-traded derivatives, sports contracts, CFTC enforcement, and the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets. They also take a detailed look at perpetual futures ("perps"), including funding mechanisms, market surveillance, reference prices, 24/7 trading, leverage, and the concerns surrounding perpetual contracts in agricultural markets. The episode also explores 24/7 futures trading, prediction market regulation, responsible trading rules, and DeWaal's role as a public director at prediction market exchange Növig. With prediction markets and perpetuals rapidly evolving, this conversation offers a historical and legal perspective on some of the biggest regulatory questions facing the derivatives industry today. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:35 - Going back in time 6:30 - Regulating derivative laws in the 1970s 14:15 - Reaction to recent 9th Circuit court decisions 26:00 - On CFTC enforcing rules 34:00 - Agricultural trade concerns 37:05 - Why join Novig? 39:05 - Being on the frontline for sports contracts #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #GaryDeWaal #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionNews #Polymarket #EventContracts #SportsContracts #Derivatives #Futures #Perpetuals #FinancialRegulation #CommodityExchangeAct #Trading
#45
September 9 · 32 min
Prediction Markets Meet Social Media | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Harshit Geddam, Head of Technology at OpinionKings, to discuss the company’s innovative approach to prediction markets. OpinionKings is connecting short-form social media content with existing prediction markets, allowing users to discover market ideas and trade without leaving the content experience. Geddam explains how OpinionKings is building around the creator economy, including creator credibility scores, premium content, subscriptions, and incentives for creators to bring their audiences into prediction markets. The goal is to turn creator expertise and market opinions into a new source of engagement and participation. The conversation also explores OpinionKings’ focus on non-sports prediction markets, including economics, crypto, politics, entertainment, weather, and climate. Geddam discusses why these markets can be difficult to discover, how creator-driven content could help generate liquidity, and why Opinion Kings sees itself as a complement to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket rather than a direct competitor. Chris and Harshit also discuss OpinionKings’ early user adoption, paper-trading results, plans for real-money trading, the role of Gen Z, and the company’s vision for bringing social media, creators, and prediction markets together. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Matching reels with the markets 3:45 - Credibility of content creator 7:05 - Filtering out personalities 8:35 - Why target the creator economy? 12:02 - “we treat creators as employees” 15:00 - User adoption of opinion kings 17:45 - Audience engagement with trading 19:50 - Competitor vs complimentary 22:45 - Any isolated feelings towards sports contracts? 26:20 - What’s next for OpinionKings? #PredictionMarkets #OpinionKings #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #PredictionNews #HarshitGeddam #CreatorEconomy #Fintech #SocialMedia #Trading #PredictionMarket #GenZ #Crypto #EventContracts
#44
September 4 · 37 min
The CFTC’s Vision for Prediction Markets with Dorothy DeWitt | Prediction Market Movers
Former CFTC official Dorothy DeWitt joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth look at the evolution of prediction markets, Kalshi’s early years, and the regulatory challenges shaping the industry today. DeWitt led the CFTC team that worked on Kalshi’s designation as a Designated Contract Market, giving her a unique perspective on how Kalshi navigated the regulatory process and what the CFTC was thinking about prediction markets in the early days. She explains the original pitch behind Kalshi, the challenges surrounding event contracts and self-certification, and how regulators approached an entirely new type of exchange. The conversation then turns to the biggest issues facing prediction markets in 2026, including CFTC regulation, prediction market guardrails, SEC-CFTC harmonization, and the classification of prediction market products. DeWitt also dives into arbitration and customer disputes, conflicts of interest, exchange rulebooks, market surveillance, and the importance of developing a taxonomy for prediction market contracts. DeWitt touches on why a well-designed taxonomy could help bring institutional liquidity into the industry while also giving regulators and exchanges better tools to monitor manipulation, insider trading, and other forms of market abuse. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Her CFTC days 3:30 Getting a DCM 5:20 - Adjusting to a new administration 8:10 - Differences in leadership 10:40 - priorities 12:20 - Legal landscape in the next administration 14:30 - Guard rails in prediction markets 17:35 - Why is vertical integration a hot topic? 19:50 - Solutions to conflicts of interests 21:40 - Disruptive perpetual contracts 24:50 - Swaps vs. futures 26:35 - A mature PM industry 29:20 - SEC and CFTC harmony 34:00 - On taxonomies #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #CFTC #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Polymarket #EventContracts #PredictionMarket #FinancialMarkets #Regulation #Perpetuals #SEC #Trading #Fintech
#43
September 3 · 39 min
What the Markets Say About the 2026 Midterms | Prediction Market Movers
Former Kalshi Head of Politics Jaron Zhou joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers to discuss how political prediction markets work, how they complement polling, and what they can reveal about the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle. Jaron breaks down the practical role of prediction markets in politics, including election forecasting, hedging political risk, campaign resource allocation, candidate electability, market calibration, and interpreting probabilities. The conversation also examines the 2026 Senate map, why the Senate has moved toward a closer race, the Texas Senate contest, progressive candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin, anti-incumbency within both parties, what "moderate" really means to voters, and how prediction markets can help identify emerging political trends. Chris and Jaron also look ahead to 2028, including generational change in the Democratic Party, the potential impact of Trump on Republican candidates, the future of progressive versus moderate politics, and emerging political issues such as AI and data centers. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:20 - How Jaron landed at Kalshi 3:20 - Misconceptions of Prediction Markets and polling 6:35 - Life after Kalshi 7:15 - Uses of political markets 11:35 - Identifying darkhorse candidates 13:20 - Using markets to interpret election results 16:30 - Can prediction Market data changed your perspective on elections? 19:30 -Senate is in play for dems 22:50 - Talarico’s christian platform 26:00 - Progressive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan 32:30 - What does moderate mean for a swing voter? 36:00 - What could a democrat offer to the presidency? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #JaronZhou #Kalshi #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalMarkets #PredictionMarkets2026 #2028Election #PoliticalForecasting #ElectionOdds #PredictionNews #KalshiPolitics #ElectionPrediction
#42
August 19 · 42 min
Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets Can Fix Bad Decisions | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Dr. Robin Hanson to explore where prediction markets came from, where they're headed, and how they could become a much more powerful tool for decision-making. Hanson revisits the early DARPA Policy Analysis Market controversy, explains the evolution of combinatorial prediction markets, and discusses why he believes organizations should eventually pay directly for the information prediction markets produce. The conversation shifts into prediction market accuracy, political market volatility, probability, market manipulation, and the backlash facing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains how traders should think about changing prices, why market participants need to ask what information they have that others don't, and how prediction markets could eventually move beyond simple yes-or-no contracts into conditional markets that estimate the consequences of different decisions. Hanson also lays out his long-term vision for decision markets—markets designed to help governments, companies, organizations, and individuals make better decisions. He discusses applications ranging from healthcare and education to corporate leadership and public policy, along with his research into the concept of the "sacred" and how ideas like sacred money could potentially make controversial prediction markets more acceptable. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com More about Dr. Robin Hanson: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Funding the original DARPA 4:30 - The use of trading technology 5:45 - Subsidizing markets 8:15 - Price movements 13:40 - Future of Polymakret and Kalshi 16:05 - Goal with prediction market 17:20 - Bad decisions 20:00 - Conditional Markets 22:00 - PM backlash 25:15 - Insider trading complaints 28:15 - Prediction Market polices on information 31:00 - Journalism and PMs coexisting 33:15 - Dr. Hanson's current research subjects 34:50 - “Money isn’t sacred” 37:40 - Differences between sacred money and real money 39:00 - Themes of the sacred #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #RobinHanson #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #PredictionMarkets #DecisionMarkets #PredictionNews #Politics #Trading #FutureOfMarkets
#41
August 12 · 34 min
Melissa Footlick on the Next Generation of Traders | Prediction Market Movers
What happens when proprietary trading meets prediction markets? Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News sits down with Melissa Footlick, founder and CEO of Catalyst, to explain how prop trading works and why she believes the traditional model needs to change. Footlick breaks down evaluations, simulated-funded accounts, payouts, trading restrictions and the challenges traders face with complicated and constantly changing rules. They also discuss how Catalyst is taking a different approach, built around transparency, simplicity and objective rules. The conversation covers Catalyst's $10 starter account, its simulated $1,000 prediction market account, how traders can qualify for a $100 payout, and why the company chose Polymarket as its initial market platform. Catalyst is offering Prediction Market Makers & Prediction News subscribers a free $1,000 simulated account. Pass the challenge and earn $100. Use code PMMOVERS at checkout:https://www.tradecatalyst.com/ Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - What is prop trading? 5:40 - Restrictions for prop traders/firms 14:45 - Building Catalyst 18:30 - Walking through getting paid 22:00 - Where does the real cash come from? 23:00 - Customer feedback on Catalyst 27:30 Why build on PolyMarket? 29:20 - Different future options for Catalyst #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Catalyst #PropTrading #PredictionMarketTrading #Trading #Crypto #Kalshi #PredictionNews #FinTech #tradingeducation Guest: Melissa Footlick, Founder & CEO of Catalyst Host: Chris Gerlacher, Prediction News
#40
August 6 · 34 min
Steve Ruddock Explains Why Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Test Yet | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with gaming industry analyst-consultant Steve Ruddock to examine how today's prediction markets compare to the early days of daily fantasy sports, online poker, and sports betting. They discuss the legal battles surrounding Kalshi and Polymarket, the role of the Supreme Court, and why history may provide a roadmap for where prediction markets are headed next. Steve also shares insights on the similarities between DFS and prediction markets, the influence of the American Gaming Association (AGA), responsible gaming debates, federal versus state regulation, and how companies like FanDuel are approaching prediction markets. The conversation also explores why messaging, lobbying, and regulatory strategy could determine the industry's future as much as the courtroom battles. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - Early stage DFS compared to early stage prediction market 4:20 - DFS durability 7:00 - Legalities with gaming institutions 8:30 - Too big to fail argument 13:15 - Which companies can survive long term? 16:30 - Where prediction markets could fall in court 18:00 - How can PMs weather the mental health aspect of unhealthy gaming 21:30 - Is the gaming lobby misunderstood? 26:40 - What is the AGA’s focus right now? 30:30 - Scenarios for PM survivability #predictionmarkets #SteveRuddock #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #SportsBetting #GamingIndustry #GamblingLaw #PredictionNews #DFS #CFTC #GamingRegulation #SportsContracts #DraftKings #fanduel Guest Steve Ruddock – Gaming journalist covering prediction markets, sports betting, online gaming regulation, and gambling policy. Check out Steve's work at https://straighttothepoint.substack.com/ Host Chris Gerlacher – Prediction News
#39
July 29 · 35 min
Can SportsPredict Find the Next Generation of Traders? | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Steve Kuhn and Shani Raviv, the founders of Sports Predict, to discuss how forecasting competitions are being used to identify top quantitative talent for trading firms. They explain how Sports Predict evaluates forecasting ability through probability-based competitions and how consistent decision-making can be measured using Brier scores instead of traditional resumes or interviews. They also discuss the growing importance of forecasting in prediction markets, finance, and AI. Steve and Shani share why sports provide an ideal environment for measuring forecasting skill, how participants build statistical models to improve predictions, and why elite forecasters often outperform even leading AI models. They also explain how forecasting contests create a scalable way to discover talented traders from around the world and what makes prediction markets an effective testing ground for decision-making under uncertainty. Shani and Stve share Sports Predict's long-term vision, including future applications beyond sports, the role of AI in forecasting, partnerships with firms like Jump Trading, and how prediction markets could reshape hiring and talent identification across industries. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com SportsPredict https://sportspredict.com/ 00:00 - Intro 1:45 - On Talent identification 5:45 - How does SportsPredict work? 9:00 - The idea behind SportsPredict 13:32 - What has changed to level the playing field 15:00 - Partnership with Trade Jumpers 17:30 - Improvement with the program 19:45 - Credentialed traders 23:00 - What’s next for SportsPredict? 27:10 - How volatile is the leaderboard? 30:00- Sharing strategies #PredictionMarkets #SportsPredict #SteveKuhn #ShaniRaviv #PredictionMarketMovers #Forecasting #Superforecasting #QuantTrading #JumpTrading #SportsAnalytics #AI #Trading #PredictionNews
#38
July 22 · 35 min
Seni Thomas of Edge Markets on Banking & Payment Rails | Prediction Market Movers
How do professional prediction market traders move millions of dollars between exchanges, and why are traditional banks often unwilling to support them? In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Seni Thomas, founder of Edge Markets, to discuss the hidden infrastructure powering prediction markets. From banking challenges and real-time payments to capital efficiency and liquidity management, Seni explains why payment rails may be one of the biggest growth opportunities in the industry. Seni shares how Edge Markets is approaching real-time payments, capital constraints, fragmented liquidity, OTC block trading, and enterprise banking for trading firms. The conversation also explores the role of RTP and FedNow, the importance of market-making infrastructure, and how future NFA and FCM-related capabilities could affect the broader prediction market ecosystem. Chris and Seni also discuss the long-term outlook for the industry, including competition between exchanges, sportsbook operators entering the space, responsible gaming tools, and why Edge Markets believes prediction markets could become a multi-trillion-dollar industry. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com Edge Markets https://edgemarkets.io 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Problems that trading accounts have with traditional banks 6:15 - How has trading changed since arbitrage? 8:20 Solving combo pricing 12:30 - On large trades 13:55 - Why don’t traditional banks like trading? 17:50 - Qualifications for EDGE Markets 19:35 - Timeline on NFA membership 21:35 - EDGE Markets margins 22:35 - Early gaming features 27:00 - Traction with prediction markets 29:40 - Fragmentation in the markets 31:20- What anew exchange brings? #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #EdgeMarkets #SeniThomas #Kalshi #Polymarket #Fintech #Banking #Payments #TradingInfrastructure
#37
July 15 · 22 min
How River Markets is Transforming Prediction Market Trading | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Oscar Levy, founder of River Markets, to discuss how his company is building prime brokerage infrastructure for prediction markets. Oscar explains why liquidity is fragmented across exchanges, how River Markets uses smart order routing to help traders find the best available prices, and why execution quality becomes increasingly important for professional and institutional traders. The conversation dives into multi-venue execution, machine learning for market mapping, slippage reduction, portfolio and risk management, and how River Markets approaches trading across major prediction market platforms. Oscar also explains how professional traders differ from recreational traders, why prediction market contracts require sophisticated execution tools, and how River Markets is designed to optimize trading across multiple exchanges. Chris and Oscar also discuss the future of prediction market infrastructure, the expanding landscape of CFTC-regulated exchanges, Y Combinator, and River Markets' roadmap for supporting additional trading venues and financial products. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. Learn More: Prediction News https://predictionnews.com Prediction Edge https://predictionedge.com River Market https://www.rivermarkets.com/ 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - Why fragmented exchanges and River Market? 3:30 - On River Market’s algorithm 4:30 - Protecting customers and resolutions 6:15 - Splitting prices and navigating volatility 8:45 - What strategies are used? 9:45 - Every trader has a process 10:30 - Underrated features of River Market 12:00 - On River Market's forecast models and patterns 14:45 - How safe is River market from disruptions? 15:45 - Risk management products 17:05 - Y-combinator experience 20:00 - Future plans for River Market #PredictionMarkets #RiverMarkets #OscarLevy #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #Trading #Finance #AlgorithmicTrading #MachineLearning #Fintech #CFTC #MarketStructure #Liquidity #PredictionNews
#36
July 8 · 23 min
How Hunter Guo Built a Prediction Market Watchdog | Prediction Market Movers
Chris Gerlacher welcomes Hunter Guo, founder of Verdict HQ, on Prediction Market Movers to discuss Polymarket resolution risk and how a controversial MicroStrategy Bitcoin market led Hunter to build an independent watchdog for prediction market contracts. Hunter explains how Verdict HQ scores markets using six factors: time clarity, resolution source, outcome definitions, edge cases, and post-trade risk. The goal is to help traders identify contracts that may be difficult to resolve cleanly before they place a trade. The conversation covers ambiguous market wording, UMA voting, and examples from crypto, geopolitics, sports, and breaking news. Chris and Hunter also discuss which types of markets tend to be safer or riskier. They close by talking about the future of prediction markets, including AI-assisted analysis, community reputation features, and why clearer standards and independent oversight matter as the industry grows. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Crypto trading to prediction Markets 3:10 - Getting involved with trading on Polymarket 5:20 - Market resolution incident 11:05 - Launching Verdict 13:30 - Detecting market clarity 17:35 - Which markets are high risk? 20:35 - Upcoming features on Verdict #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #HunterGuo #PredictionMarketMovers #Crypto #Bitcoin #Blockchain #Kalshi #DeFi #UMA #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PredictionNews #Trading #CryptoTrading
#35
July 6 · 42 min
Gaeten Dugas Exposes Spotify Streaming Fraud That Broke Kalshi Markets | Prediction Market Movers
On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with top 100 Kalshi trader Gaeten Dugas to break down how suspicious Spotify streaming activity allegedly manipulated prediction markets, and what the data reveals about coordinated botting campaigns. The conversation explores how fraudulent Spotify streams affected Kalshi Culture Markets, why Ella Langley appeared destined to win before unexpected market shifts, and how traders identified unusual U.S.-only streaming spikes tied to specific artists. They also discuss the broader implications for prediction markets, market integrity, regulation, and the CFTC, including the growing challenge of third-party manipulation, flawed resolution sources, and what exchanges like Kalshi may need to change moving forward. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 0:00 - Intro 1:30 - Spotify stream market 3:15 - Timeline of issues 24:00 - Kalshi’s resolution 28:05 - Kalshi’s response 30:00 - Spotify’s updated figures 33:30 - How should Kalshi adjust? 36:30 - Cleaning up market resolution 38:45 - 3rd party manipulation #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Spotify #SpotifyStreams #MarketManipulation #Polymarket #Crypto #StreamingFraud #PredictionNews #Trading #CFTC #MarketIntegrity #MusicIndustry #ElectionMarkets
#34
July 1 · 38 min
SafeBets Wants to Reward Skill, Not Losses | Prediction Market Movers
Welcome back to Prediction Market Movers! In this episode, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Gina Antoniello of SafeBets to discuss a new approach to prediction markets that rewards users for accurate forecasting without requiring them to risk their own money. Gina explains how SafeBets uses Unicoin, an "accuracy economy," and institutional market intelligence to create a different model from traditional sports betting and prediction platforms. The conversation explores how SafeBets identifies top forecasters, monetizes aggregated prediction data instead of user losses, and approaches consumer protection through product design. Chris and Gina also discuss the role of crypto, regulatory challenges, prediction market innovation, sports betting psychology, academic research at NYU, and the future expansion of prediction markets into politics and other categories. Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:15 - How does SafeBets work? 6:30 - Company growth tied to a coin 8:00 - Operating without much regulation 11:00 - Markets insiders and available markets 13:10 - Navigating through an unknown crypto space 19:30 - SafeBets research strategy 22:00 - Utilizing user psychology 24:20 - Response after launching SafeBets 27:45 - Bets outside of sports 30:20 - Are political bets in the future? 31:30 - Sports and politics intersecting #PredictionMarkets #SafeBets #Crypto #SportsBetting #Web3 #Forecasting #PredictionNews #PredictionMarketMovers #SportsPrediction #Blockchain #CryptoNews #BehavioralEconomics #Unicoin #SportsAnalytics #Fintech
#33
June 26 · 51 min
Inside Professional Prediction Market Trading with Domer | Prediction Market Movers
Prediction market trader Domer joins host Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers for an in-depth discussion about the evolution of prediction markets, professional trading strategies, political forecasting, and the future of market resolution. Domer shares his experience trading across hundreds of prediction markets, explains how his approach has evolved since the early PredictIt days, and discusses finding an edge as prediction markets become increasingly efficient. The conversation explores political forecasting, reacting to breaking news, information asymmetry, insider activity, and why understanding market rules is just as important as understanding the underlying event. The episode also takes a deep dive into one of the industry's most debated topics: market resolution. Chris and Domer discuss Polymarket's UMA resolution controversies, Kalshi's centralized resolution process, contract interpretation, prediction market governance, and what improvements could help prediction markets continue to mature. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge and the 2026 midterms visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - When the bets get bigger 2:15 - Which markets are for Domer 3:45 - PredictIts model 4:50 - Political trading changes 6:30 Finding an edge 7:30 - Dabbling with new topics and markets 10:00 - Details of a market 11:45 - hasn’t improved 14:00 - Adjusting to the political environment 15:40 - Reading into political movements 20:00 - Signs you’re trading against a pro 22:00 - Pulling back from a market 26:00 - History in unique markets 29:30 - Market resolution 38:00 - non-binary payouts 40:20 - Improving market resolution 43:45 - On Conspectus 47:15 - Future investments #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionNews #Kalshi #Polymarket #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalForecasting #Trading #SportsPrediction #Crypto #AI #Investing #MarketAnalysis #EventContracts
#32
June 17 · 34 min
Will AI Replace Jobs? Metaculus' Christian Williams Breaks It Down | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, host Chris Gerlacher sits down with Christian Williams of Metaculus to discuss AI forecasting, labor automation, and the future of work. Christian explains how Metaculus differs from traditional prediction market platforms, why reputation-based forecasting can produce valuable insights, and how forecasters approach complex questions involving AI, geopolitics, biosecurity, technological change, and long-term societal trends. The conversation also explores what separates top forecasters from the crowd and how forecasting competitions identify forecasting talent. Chris and Christian take a deep dive into Metaculus' Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, discussing projections for job growth and decline, AI’s impact on occupations, workforce development, unemployment trends, and how policymakers and state governments are beginning to use forecasting tools to prepare for AI-driven economic shifts. The episode also covers AI forecasting competitions, forecasting bots, state-level AI planning, long-term forecasting, and the growing role forecasting platforms may play in helping society navigate the next decade of technological change. 🔔 Subscribe to Prediction News for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 👍 Like this video and leave a comment: Which profession do you think will be most impacted by AI over the next 10 years? Metaculus features and research: https://www.metaculus.com/midterms-2026/ — live midterms tracker https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/midterms-2026/ — $10k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/labor-hub/ — AI-and-jobs dashboard https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/labor-hub/ — $35k prize pool https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/ — AI forecasting benchmark https://www.metaculus.com/futureeval/participate/ — Participate — build-a-bot resources + explainer video: $175k prize pool / yr https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/43357/bot-advice-fall-2025/ (Fall 2025) — what winners did https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-summer-2026/ — generalist forecasting, short turnaround, pegged to the news $5k -- Dylan Matthews as current challenger https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/33016/ — $3k+ Save Our Bacon Act and more on animal welfare https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/ — (yearly, now closed) $30k prize pool + recruiting Metaculus Pro Forecasters - https://www.metaculus.com/services/pro-forecasters/ https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/epoch-ai-robotics/ — robotics timelines https://www.metaculus.com/news/ — latest updates https://x.com/metaculus — launches and announcements 00:00 - Intro 1:40 - Why Metaculus? 4:30 - Forecast slider accuracy 6:45 - AI additions 8:40 - AI’s relationship with the next generation 20:45 - What’s next for Metaculus? 24:45 - Lawmakers implementation 25:40 - The future of Robotics and AI 27:00 - Most important questions for Metaculus 30:00 - Credibility of forecasting 31:15 - Limits on AI bots 37:00 - What is scaffolding? #PredictionMarketMovers #ChristianWilliams #Metaculous #AIForecasting #ArtificialIntelligence #FutureOfWork #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #AIJobs #Automation #Superforecasters #PredictionNews #LaborAutomation #MachineLearning #Economy
#31
June 10 · 31 min
Jan Czarnocki Explains How AI Could Transform Prediction Markets | Prediction Market Movers
In this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Jan Czarnocki of Elastics AI to explore how artificial intelligence could reshape the future of prediction market trading. Jan explains how Elastics AI is building tools that allow traders to turn market convictions into automated strategies. The conversation dives into the growing intersection of AI, forecasting, and financial markets. Jan discusses the challenges of using large language models in prediction markets, the importance of deterministic execution, and how AI agents can help traders process information, manage positions, and identify opportunities more efficiently. They also discuss prediction market infrastructure, market resolution systems, and the evolving role of automation in trading. Chris and Jan examine where the industry is headed as prediction markets continue to mature. They discuss institutional adoption, the growing demand for market intelligence tools, the role of data in forecasting, and how AI-powered systems may become an essential layer of the prediction market ecosystem. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.predictionnews.com 00:00 - Intro edit read 1:30 - Quants at Goldman Sachs 3:30 - How did this become Elastics Ai 4:45 - Inside Elastics Ai 8:20 - Ai bots hallucinating 12:00 - Why hasn’t Ai caught up to it’s maximum possibility 14:00 - On more specialty markets 16:00 - LLMs becoming the next stage of UI 19:00 - Hardcoding LLMs 20:45 - How will markets evolve? 25:00 - Market Resolution evolution 29:30 - Next steps for Elastic Ai #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #AIAgents #Kalshi #Polymarket #ElasticsAI #Forecasting #QuantTrading #ArtificialIntelligence #Fintech #PredictionNews
#30
June 9 · 27 min
Ed Silva on DraftKings, Political Trading & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers
Ed Silva joins Prediction Market Movers to discuss his decade at DraftKings, the evolution of sports betting, and how those lessons apply to the rapidly growing prediction market industry. Ed explains the similarities and differences between sports bettors and political traders, liquidity challenges, and why prediction markets still feel like an early-stage industry. The conversation explores prediction market data, election forecasting, user behavior, prediction market infrastructure, and how traders can identify signal in increasingly complex markets. Ed also discusses the challenges of building data products for politics compared to sports, where decades of data already exist. Chris Gerlacher and Ed Silva also break down the future of Prediction Edge, how polling, fundraising, endorsements, and prediction market odds can be combined into actionable insights, and why data-driven election analysis could become one of the most important use cases for prediction markets ahead of the 2026 midterms and beyond. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the Prediction Edge visit www.predictionedge.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - Time at DraftKings 2:30 - Being on the founder side 3:30 - Going sports to politics 5:30 - Difference between sports and political trading 7:00 - Square trading in politics 10:50 - Price sensitive sports betters 12:30 - Response to Kalish’s tweets 16:45 - How has data been underutilized in the PM industry? 19:00 - What’s missing in prediction markets? 20:30 - Prediction Edge 22:30 - Features on Prediction Edge 25:50 - Screening out bad data #PredictionMarkets #PredictionMarketMovers #Kalshi #Polymarket #DraftKings #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalBetting #PredictionEdge #SportsBetting #Trading
#29
May 26 · 29 min
Avi Arora on Oddpool, Institutional Traders & Prediction Market Data | Prediction Market Movers
On this edition of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Avi Arora, co-founder of Oddpool, to discuss how institutional traders are approaching prediction markets and what infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption. The conversation covers Kalshi, Polymarket, historical tick-level data, market-making, liquidity, institutional flow, prediction market analytics, and how Oddpool is building data tools for traders and hedge funds. Avi explains how he became interested in prediction markets through mention markets, statistical trading strategies, low-latency broadcast signals, and speech-to-text analysis. The episode also dives into how prediction market data can be used for backtesting, quantitative trading, AI forecasting models, and market pricing across platforms. The discussion also explores Y Combinator, startup founder dynamics, fundraising, prediction market regulation, and how companies like Kalshi helped push the industry forward. Avi shares insights into building Oddpool, collecting normalized market data across venues, and why the prediction market data layer could become one of the most valuable segments of the industry over the next several years. 👉 Subscribe to Prediction Market Movers for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets. For more information on the prediction markets visit www.prediction news.com 00:00 - Intro 1:30 - His start in Prediction Markets 5:15 - Starting Oddpool 6:15 - What is missing in prediction markets? 9:15 - Which contracts should be targeted? 11:20 - Getting into Y Combinator and founder dynamics 14:20 - The benefit of Y Combinator 16:30 - On industry interruptions 20:30 - What does a mature industry look like? 22:30 - Hedging on political events 24:00 - Under appreciated data in prediction markets 27:20 - Next steps for Oddpool #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #Oddpool #PredictionMarketMovers #QuantTrading #AI #Forecasting #ElectionMarkets #Trading #YCombinator #Finance #InstitutionalTrading #MacroTrading #PredictionNews

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