Onramp Bitcoin Media

Onramp Bitcoin

Onramp Bitcoin Media
Bitcoin, macro, and markets, discussed by the team building Onramp and the investors and founders we interview every week.

The Last Trade: our flagship show on markets, macro, and digital assets through a bitcoin lens, plus one-on-one interviews with investors, entrepreneurs, and analysts.

Final Settlement: our weekly show on how traditional capital is moving into bitcoin and digital assets, plus one-on-one interviews with the dealmakers and builders behind it.

First Principles: one-on-one conversations every other week on why bitcoin works and how to hold it for the lo

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Thursday · 1 hr 5 min
Bitcoin Just Did What It Did Before a 6X
Bitcoin just posted its highest weekly close since January, up 43% on the quarter and roughly 50% off the bottom. Jackson, Michael and Brian make the bull case, then take on Ari Paul's Coinbase allegations and what they mean for custody concentration. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-pod ABOUT THIS EPISODE Bitcoin closed its best week since January near $84,400, capping a quarter up about 43% and a move of roughly 50% off the bottom near $58,000. Brian argues there is no fake out: the last time Bitcoin bounced 50% off a bottom, in 2022, it went on to rally about six times. Michael points to rising bond yields, AI capex, private credit and inflation as the backdrop that makes Bitcoin the obvious safe haven, and the hosts debut Ask Onramp with its first listener question. They then walk through BlockTower founder Ari Paul's allegations that Coinbase concealed repeated hacks, which remain unproven and tied up in legal proceedings, and why custody concentration matters when one firm custodies most of the ETF supply. The back half covers Citigroup and Coinbase on stablecoin payments, Morgan Stanley's digital asset lab, AI agents and bank runs, the Blockstream lawsuits, and the White House AI accord. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Welcome from Philly week 03:19 - Bitcoin's best weekly close since January, up 43% in Q3 04:30 - No fake out: 50% off the bottom and the 2022 6X 07:40 - October seasonality and rising bond yields 13:18 - The super bullish setup: bonds, capex, private credit 14:51 - Howard Marks, the rate hike and 21 million 16:23 - Sizing for your whole net worth 17:44 - Ask Onramp: can one company move my Bitcoin? 23:04 - Ari Paul's Coinbase hack allegations 27:58 - Why serious holders avoid single custodians 31:22 - Coinbase, the ETFs and custody concentration 34:50 - Too big to fail and a new way to custody Bitcoin 38:22 - Citigroup, Coinbase and Morgan Stanley's digital asset lab 44:39 - AI bank runs and this year's bank failures 48:04 - Adam Back, Blockstream and the Liquid fallout 52:12 - Muse, Apple layoffs and AI agents managing money 58:58 - The end of 60/40, the White House AI accord and open weights ABOUT THE SHOW The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term. MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
Wednesday · 35 min
The Gold Math That Puts Bitcoin at $1 Million
Gold and silver just shed over a trillion dollars in a day as the 10-year yield hit a 19-year high, and the math on gold's $18 trillion run says Bitcoin could move faster than anyone expects. Also on the clock: OpenAI shelving GPT-6.1 Astra, Apollo's warning about an agentic bank run, and Ari Paul's hack allegations against Coinbase. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? OPEN A FREE ONRAMP FINANCE ACCOUNT One free account to buy Bitcoin, use the Onramp Terminal, and access the rest of Onramp: Bitcoin IRA, Bitcoin-backed loans, and Multi-Institution Custody. Recurring buys carry no Onramp trading fee. Active clients are eligible for Onramp-funded rewards up to 5%. Cash back on the Onramp Card converts to Bitcoin in one click. Takes a few minutes to open. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-svn-pod CHAPTERS 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Topic 1 - OpenAI Shelves GPT-6.1 Astra as Anthropic Files for Its IPO 08:43 - Topic 2 - Gold and Silver Sell Off as the 10-Year Yield Hits a 19-Year High 16:28 - Topic 3 - Apollo's Torsten Slok Asks If AI Agents Could Trigger a Bank Run 23:27 - Topic 4 - BlockTower's Ari Paul Alleges Coinbase Hid Hack Losses 32:26 - Wrap-Up & Lightning Round: The Bitget Hack and Morgan Stanley's Digital Asset Lab ABOUT THE SHOW Signal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
Tuesday · 54 min
This Chart Exposed The AI Trade and Loves Bitcoin
One chart from Epoch AI shows the cost of AI falling about 47% a quarter since 2023, faster than any technology in history, and it exposes the math under the AI trade. Michael, Liam and Brian on why cheap intelligence competes away profit, and why Bitcoin is the scarce unit left. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-pod GET ON THE LIST • Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod • Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/research ABOUT THIS EPISODE Eight major AI models shipped in two weeks, open-weight models now carry most of the tokens on Vercel's AI Gateway, Oracle invoked force majeure on a Stargate site, and Epoch AI finds the cost of a given level of performance has fallen about 47% a quarter since 2023. Michael's read is that AI will compete away the profits it touches, which makes the scarce unit in an abundant world the question that matters. From there the three of them work through Amazon blocking Meta's Muse while Shopify opens its merchants to it, Block bringing Bitcoin Lightning payments to x402 for AI agents, the Open USD stablecoin consortium, the CFTC's call to prepare for mass tokenization, Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock's model portfolios on Ondo, Binance's $100 million stake in Circle, and Apollo's warning that agents could set off a bank run. The single point of failure of the week is the roughly $350 million Bitget hack, linked to North Korea. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Eight AI models in two weeks: what the singularity looks like 03:53 - Open-weight models, Oracle's Stargate notice, and Jevons paradox 07:15 - Frontier versus open models, and why the harness holds the value 10:46 - Amazon blocks Muse, Shopify opens the door 16:57 - Why blocking bots fails, and why agents may raise prices 23:13 - Block brings Bitcoin Lightning to x402 for AI agents 26:26 - What if the ads of the agent internet are just money? 29:07 - Open USD: Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase and Shopify 30:56 - Mass tokenization, from the CFTC to the ECB's Pontes 33:51 - Citi and Coinbase, BlackRock on Ondo, Binance into Circle 36:50 - Stablecoins as the onramp, and the agentic bank run 41:02 - If intelligence is free, where does alpha come from? 44:09 - Single point of failure of the week: the Bitget hack 48:35 - Russia tells investors to eat stablecoin freeze losses 50:16 - The Epoch AI chart: cheaper faster than any tech in history ABOUT THE SHOW Final Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. • Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact • Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
Monday · 1 hr 25 min
AI Just Bailed Out Bitcoin Mining | Bob Burnett
AI just bailed out Bitcoin's public miners, and Bob Burnett says that is the healthiest thing to happen to mining in years. Liam sits down with the Ocean executive chairman on falling hash rate, who builds Bitcoin's blocks, and what the BIP-110 fork proved. Guest: Bob Burnett, CEO of Barefoot Mining and executive chairman of Ocean. https://www.barefootmining.com/ BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-pod GET ON THE LIST • Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod • Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/research ABOUT THIS EPISODE Bob Burnett was CTO of Gateway before starting Barefoot Mining in 2017, and now chairs the Ocean mining pool. He sorts miners into rabbits, horses and elephants, and argues the elephants' rush into AI hosting is trimming fat that never belonged: public miners have fallen from roughly 38% to 28% of hash rate, and he expects global hash rate to stay flat to down for up to two years. He explains why mining is a commodity business that sells block space, why off grid power beats an on grid contract, and why five pools building 80% of block templates is the risk Ocean and DATUM were built to fix. It closes on Core and Knots, what the BIP-110 fork revealed about consensus, and why Wall Street and nation states will have a voice. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Bob Burnett: Barefoot Mining, Ocean and The Bitcoin Boomers 03:52 - Rabbits, horses and elephants: the three classes of miner 07:07 - Why the public miners pivoted to AI, and why that is healthy 10:40 - Worst hashprice ever, and what AI pays for power 18:07 - Hash rate is falling: is Bitcoin's security at risk 23:24 - Used rigs at dimes on the dollar, and the next mining chips 31:00 - Wild vs captured: why the future of mining is off grid 38:09 - All of Bitcoin mining is a $10 billion business 40:32 - Miners or hashers: five pools build 80% of blocks 46:03 - FPPS vs TIDES: the hidden cost of steady payouts 51:24 - Stratum V2 vs DATUM, and hundreds of templates on Ocean 56:12 - Bitcoin Core, Knots and why process matters 1:03:21 - What the BIP-110 fork taught Bitcoin about consensus 1:10:15 - The tenth man, and Ocean parting ways with Luke Dashjr 1:14:48 - The Bitcoin Boomers, and why boomers aren't the problem ABOUT THE SHOW Final Settlement Interview Series: a one on one interview series hosted by Liam Nelson, Partner at Early Riders. One guest, and a deep conversation on the deals, the capital and the technology moving through bitcoin, so you can hear how the people actually doing the work think about where the future is going. Presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media. • Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact • Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 • Bob Burnett: https://x.com/boomer_btc MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 26 · 1 hr 41 min
Building Swan: What Bitcoin Needs to Scale 10x | Brandon Quittem
Brandon Quittem helped build Swan from a Bitcoin gifting app into a full service firm, and he thinks custody is the piece Bitcoin still needs before it grows 10x. Cam Stromme sits down with him on meetups, DCA, multisig and protecting your Bitcoin as if it were already worth ten times more. Guest: Brandon Quittem, VP of Client Experience at Swan Bitcoin and founder of the Minneapolis Bitcoin meetup. https://x.com/Bquittem BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fp-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fp-pod ABOUT THIS EPISODE Brandon Quittem joined Swan as an advisor in 2019, came up through marketing and now runs client experience, so he has watched Bitcoin adoption from the first sales call to the recovery call. He tells Cam how Swan began as a gifting platform until users hacked it into a weekly DCA, why the company hired for content first, and why a steady buy is still the best guardrail against our own psychology. The second half turns to custody. Brandon makes the honest case against collaborative multisig before he makes the case for it, and explains why he sees it as the middle ground most holders will actually use. They cover the physical threat to holders, why withdrawal delays add real friction for criminals, Swan's RBX path out of GBTC, and why an inheritance plan needs legal title as well as access to the keys. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Building Swan with Brandon Quittem 02:18 - From altcoins to Bitcoin only 07:53 - Starting a Bitcoin meetup people come back to 17:34 - Swan started as a Bitcoin gifting app 20:56 - Why Swan led with education 31:09 - Why DCA became the core product 41:05 - Seven years across every team at Swan 51:40 - Should you work at a Bitcoin company? 57:42 - Swan's custody journey 1:01:58 - The honest case for and against multisig 1:07:16 - What custody has to look like to scale 1:09:25 - Protect your Bitcoin like it's already 10x 1:13:25 - The physical threat to Bitcoin holders 1:22:42 - The third way: no single point of failure 1:24:17 - Why withdrawal delays stop criminals 1:27:34 - RBX and why to hold real Bitcoin 1:33:36 - Advice for young people: get off zero 1:37:25 - Inheritance: access is not the same as title ABOUT THE SHOW First Principles is Onramp Media's show on building and protecting Bitcoin wealth for the long term, hosted by Cam Stromme, Head of Private Wealth at Onramp. Join Cam's conversations with the people building Bitcoin's financial services on how they manage their own Bitcoin, how they weigh risk and tradeoffs, and what they see coming next. MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade and Final Settlement: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 24 · 1 hr 25 min
BlackRock Just Made Bitcoin's Bull Case
AI's $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet commitments can end two ways, and both end with the printer running. Jackson, Michael and Brian make the case for Bitcoin, from the biggest ETF inflow day of 2026 to Howard Marks's new memo and BlackRock's AI research. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-pod ABOUT THIS EPISODE Bitcoin ETFs just logged their biggest inflow day of 2026 at $999 million, and year-to-date flows turned positive as holders who sat through the bear market came back above their roughly $81,000 cost basis. The hosts debate whether retail is really back or a larger marginal buyer is behind the move, and whether Bitcoin ends up owned like gold. BlackRock's new paper, The Machine-Native Economy, casts stablecoins as the money AI agents spend and Bitcoin as the store of value, citing Bitcoin Policy Institute research. Howard Marks's latest Oaktree memo calls Treasury intervention in the bond market cosmetic and says dollar assets offer no escape. The back half covers tokenization and the CFTC after the Clarity Act stalled, the FBI data leak, $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet AI commitments, and why prices were nearly flat for 140 years before 1940. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Welcome and the Philly happy hour 03:00 - Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive for 2026 04:53 - Is retail back, or is there a bigger buyer? 10:34 - $999M: the biggest ETF inflow day of 2026 13:15 - Bitcoin vs gold: will retail ever FOMO in? 20:53 - BlackRock on AI agents, stablecoins and Bitcoin 30:03 - Saving a dollar two ways since 2020 33:23 - Howard Marks: Shall We Repeal the Laws of Economics? 39:14 - Bonds spike, gold slides, Bitcoin rises 45:49 - Is 60/40 becoming 80/15/5? 51:45 - Clarity stalls, the CFTC and tokenization 1:00:04 - Single point of failure of the week: the FBI data leak 1:06:31 - The AI documentary and pacing the frontier 1:15:20 - $3.1 trillion in off balance sheet AI commitments 1:17:44 - Either way, they have to print 1:19:30 - 140 years of flat prices, then 1940 ABOUT THE SHOW The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term. ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 23 · 31 min
$1B Poured Into Bitcoin in One Day (Why Now?)
The average Bitcoin ETF holder is back in profit for the first time since January, and the data says most of them held through the whole drawdown. Also on the clock: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic out-valuing 45 years of US tech IPOs, Meta's Muse agent matching ChatGPT's launch, and wash trading allegations at Kalshi. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? OPEN A FREE ONRAMP FINANCE ACCOUNT One free account to buy Bitcoin, use the Onramp Terminal, and access the rest of Onramp: Bitcoin IRA, Bitcoin-backed loans, and Multi-Institution Custody. Recurring buys carry no Onramp trading fee. Active clients are eligible for Onramp-funded rewards up to 5%. Cash back on the Onramp Card converts to Bitcoin in one click. Takes a few minutes to open. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-svn-pod CHAPTERS 00:00 - Intro 00:56 - Topic 1 - Bitcoin ETF Holders Are Back Above Their Cost Basis 08:01 - Topic 2 - SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic vs 45 Years of US Tech IPOs 13:34 - Topic 3 - Meta's Muse AI Agent Rivals the ChatGPT Launch 22:15 - Topic 4 - Kalshi Faces Wash Trading Allegations 27:35 - Wrap-Up & Lightning Round: AI Token Data from Vercel and OpenRouter ABOUT THE SHOW Signal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 22 · 1 hr 1 min
Why Meta's Muse Forces Rapid Bitcoin Adoption
Meta shipped Muse to a user base measured in billions, and within days Amazon blocked it from shopping on Amazon.com. Michael, Liam and Brian on why autonomous agents will need a settlement unit, and why that is the clearest path yet to Bitcoin becoming ordinary money. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-pod GET ON THE LIST • Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod • Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/research ABOUT THIS EPISODE Meta's Muse personal agent is the story of the week, and Michael calls it the biggest thing that has happened in AI so far. It is already ordering groceries, booking services and canceling subscriptions for users, and Amazon has cut it off from shopping on Amazon.com. The argument the three of them build from there is that agents traversing the internet will eventually hit monetary friction, that something has to sit between an agent and the open web, and that Meta acquiring Lightspark is the obvious way it gets a payment layer. Earlier in the show they work through the SEC's five year innovation exemption, which opens tokenized equity trading without the Clarity Act, and what Goldman and Citizens analysts read into it for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle. The back half covers TypeSafe's Jev model, Tether's $1.45 billion position at Gold.com, and stablecoin hiring at Apple and Google. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Bitcoin rips overnight, and the leverage that got washed out 05:29 - Bitcoin climbs after a rate hike, which is not how this usually goes 07:15 - The SEC's innovation exemption lands without the Clarity Act 09:26 - Why a securities rule matters for a commodity 13:33 - Goldman and Citizens: Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle win 15:48 - Circle's Arc, eleven validators, and what decentralized is not 18:25 - The banks sat this one out, and why that ages badly 23:13 - The tokens will flow: OpenRouter usage up 25,000% 27:14 - Jev, and the case against burning tokens to make a decision 33:29 - Meta ships Muse, the biggest AI moment yet 38:44 - Amazon cuts off Muse, and the agent knife fight begins 42:32 - Why Meta buying Lightspark is the obvious next move 46:45 - Instinct raises at $10 billion, and the paper gain problem 50:39 - Tether becomes a bullion bank, and Big Tech hires for stablecoins 58:40 - Single point of failure of the week: California's AI kill switch ABOUT THE SHOW Final Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. • Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact • Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 21 · 1 hr 12 min
The Fed Just Became Irrelevant | Gary Brode
The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023, and Gary Brode's answer is that it changed nothing at all. Jackson sits down with the Deep Knowledge Investing founder on why the Fed is now irrelevant, and why he spent a month paying for lunch in Bitcoin. Guest: Gary Brode, founder of http://deepknowledgeinvesting.com/ and a former long/short hedge fund manager X: https://x.com/Gary_Brode BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-pod ABOUT THIS EPISODE Gary Brode's argument is that the Federal Reserve has become a spectator. The Fed sets the overnight rate, but corporate borrowing is priced off the five year Treasury and mortgages off the ten year, and the bond market answered two years and 200 basis points of cuts by pushing long yields higher. With the ten year just under 5% and M2 growing about 5%, the real return on Treasuries is roughly zero, which is why Brode says Kevin Warsh is right that policy was never restrictive and why 25 basis points changes nothing. What matters instead is Congress, overspending by trillions a year, and a Treasury he reads as panicking through its buyback expansion and its yen purchases ahead of the midterms. His conclusion is to own what cannot be printed. He closes on a month in El Salvador, where he paid for lunch over Lightning and calls Bitcoin a working currency. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Gary Brode on the Fed's First Hike Since 2023 02:03 - Why 2% Inflation Is Theft, Not a Target 04:30 - Congress, Nixon and the End of the Gold Standard 07:13 - What the Bond Market Is Telling the Fed 09:10 - The Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates 11:45 - Warsh Is Right, Policy Was Never Restrictive 15:24 - Why the Fed Is Now Irrelevant 16:10 - Hard Assets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Uranium 21:45 - Why Bitcoin Rallied When the Treasury Panicked 26:10 - The Yen Intervention and the Reverse Carry Trade 31:09 - The Midterm Playbook and the Inside Information Line 39:22 - Gas Prices Are Not Up in 40 Years 46:00 - The 60/40 Portfolio and the AI Capex Risk 48:20 - OpenAI, NVIDIA and Circular Financing 52:56 - El Salvador: From 36 Murders a Day to Near Zero 56:00 - Bitcoin Beach, the Coffee Test and Lightning 1:02:13 - A Dollar Economy That Settles in Sats 1:05:47 - Where to Find Gary Brode ABOUT THE SHOW The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term. ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 17 · 1 hr 1 min
The Real Reason the Clarity Act Just Failed
The Clarity Act fell short in the Senate, and the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight looks like the real sticking point. Jackson, Michael and Brian cover why banks keep building anyway, the oil shock squeezing consumers, and Strategy's STRC buybacks. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-tlt-pod *JOIN US AT THE HAPPY HOUR* https://luma.com/event/manage/evt-tQqELhgtqTAeF8U GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-tlt-pod ABOUT THIS EPISODE The Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote, and Brian argues the ethics fight reads as cover for the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight, a fear a late Treasury circuit breaker did not settle. Michael points to the GENIUS Act already on the books and to bank custody rules as the piece to watch, while Jackson reads Deutsche Bank's planned custody service for institutions as proof the build continues regardless. The middle of the episode follows the oil shock, from Saudi Arabia canceling late September cargoes to Europe after the East West pipeline shut, to diesel prices and a Fed preparing its first rate hike in three years, and why 25 basis points fixes nothing structural. The back half covers consumers aged 40 to 49 taking the largest share of new bankruptcies since 2015, Strategy repurchasing roughly $950 million of STRC, Satsuma selling all 669 BTC, and Revolut handing nearly 700 customers' data to scammers. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Housekeeping and the Philly happy hour 02:55 - The Clarity Act fails in the Senate 05:15 - Brian: the banking lobby and deposit flight 08:23 - Bankers, stablecoins and the circuit breaker fight 10:02 - The GENIUS Act and why adoption happens anyway 12:04 - Deutsche Bank plans Bitcoin custody for institutions 13:39 - Saudi Arabia cancels crude cargoes to Europe 16:19 - We feel acceleration, not speed 18:59 - How the chaos hides the $40 trillion debt 23:50 - The Fed, the bond market and a coming rate hike 28:37 - Consumer bankruptcies and the K-shaped economy 33:15 - Strategy's STRC buybacks and the treasury companies 40:45 - Can a Bitcoin treasury company beat Bitcoin? 43:28 - Satsuma sells all 669 BTC 44:17 - Single point of failure of the week: Revolut's data leak 52:52 - Pacing the frontier and the push to slow AI ABOUT THE SHOW The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term. ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 16 · 37 min
Why Anthropic Just Asked AI to Slow Down
Anthropic's Dario Amodei says AI labs must pace the frontier. Is it safety, or cost control ahead of an IPO? With Cam Stromme sitting in for Michael, four stories on the clock: that slowdown call, a Fed hike priced in with the 10-year above 5%, foreign money picking US stocks over Treasuries, and the bank deposit fight inside the CLARITY Act. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? OPEN A FREE ONRAMP FINANCE ACCOUNT One free account to buy Bitcoin, use the Onramp Terminal, and access the rest of Onramp: Bitcoin IRA, Bitcoin-backed loans, and Multi-Institution Custody. Recurring buys carry no Onramp trading fee. Active clients are eligible for Onramp-funded rewards up to 5%. Cash back on the Onramp Card converts to Bitcoin in one click. Takes a few minutes to open. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn-pod GET ON THE LIST Our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. 📩 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-svn-pod CHAPTERS 00:00 - Intro 01:03 - Topic 1 - Anthropic's Dario Amodei Says AI Labs Must Pace the Frontier 09:23 - Topic 2 - Polymarket Prices a Fed Rate Hike as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5% 17:06 - Topic 3 - Foreign Investors Now Prefer US Stocks to US Treasuries 25:17 - Topic 4 - The Battle for Bank Deposits and the CLARITY Act Vote 33:39 - Wrap-Up & the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ABOUT THE SHOW Signal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 15 · 57 min
CLARITY is Coming Whether You Like It Or Not
New Clarity Act text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, with the ethics sunset deleted and the ban broadened. Michael, Liam and Brian on why the institutional money is still on the sidelines waiting to see whether the United States fully commits. BOOK A CONSULTATION Holding Bitcoin for decades raises two questions: who protects it, and how it reaches your family. Onramp answers both. Three institutions protect it, and no single one can lose it, move it, or use it. Inheritance built in. Insured through Lloyd's of London. Speak with our team to see if it fits. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/consult-fs-pod GET ON THE LIST • Onramp: our research, event invites, and the week's Bitcoin news in one free email. https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/research-fs-pod • Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/research ABOUT THIS EPISODE Michael, Liam and Brian open on the Clarity Act, where new text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, the ethics sunset was deleted entirely, and the ban got broader and enforceable by state attorneys general. They get into why the agencies are moving with or without the bill, the 17 attorneys general lining up against it, and why so much institutional money is still waiting to see whether the United States fully commits. The middle of the show is Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay and the responses from Trump, Sam Altman, Elon Musk and David Sacks, including whether this is the SBF playbook running again and what the IPO timing says about the motive. The back half runs through Nasdaq putting $100 million into Kraken's parent, TRM Labs doubling to a $2 billion valuation, Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture, and Block applying to the OCC for Builders Bank. CHAPTERS 00:00 - Live on a Monday, and the 10 year at 5% 01:06 - The Clarity Act text gets rewritten overnight 03:50 - What the new ethics provisions actually ban 07:01 - Why stablecoins make Clarity strategically urgent 08:57 - The agencies move with or without the bill, and 17 AGs push back 13:27 - Polymarket: 82% in February, 14% in August, 30% now 15:10 - Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay 18:39 - Is this the SBF playbook running again? 22:46 - Trump, Altman, Musk and David Sacks respond 28:58 - IPO timing, the duopoly, and why you cannot police China 33:50 - Nasdaq puts $100 million into Kraken's parent 37:10 - TRM Labs doubles to a $2 billion valuation 39:01 - Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture 41:51 - Block applies for Builders Bank, plus Coinbase, Bitwise and Canada 46:46 - Single point of failure of the week: the Revolut breach ABOUT THE SHOW Final Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis. • Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact • Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC ▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode] MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA • The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia • Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE • Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify • News and data: https://onramp.media Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.
September 14 · 57 min
How AI Just Made Money A Back End Technology | Alfonso Gomez-Jordana
Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contact Connect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/ Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media… Final Settlement Interview Series: a one on one interview series hosted by Liam Nelson, Partner at Early Riders. One guest, and a deep conversation on the deals, the capital and the technology moving through bitcoin, so you can hear how the people actually doing the work think about where the future is going. Liam sits down with Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint, who built Google's "I'm not a robot" captcha as an intern and now builds the payment rails those bots use. His argument is that money is becoming a back end technology: agents will hold the card, pick the rail, convert into stablecoins when an endpoint demands it, and inside of ten years most people will stop looking at prices or approving transactions at all. They get into why MoneyGram is replacing its core with stablecoins and finally monetizing float it never touched, why standing up stablecoin acceptance is now easier than getting a Stripe account, what breaks when a prompt injected agent is spending money that is not its own, and whether Bitcoin stays the neutral settlement asset once data centers find something better to mine. Chapters 00:00 - Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint 01:37 - Building "I'm not a robot" at Google, then Firebase and WhatsApp 06:12 - Why an economy of agents needs programmable money 07:53 - Inside Crossmint: wallets, tokenization, licensed fiat swaps 09:50 - The clients: trading apps, MoneyGram, payroll, agent platforms 12:57 - Do stablecoins help remittances, or do they monetize the float 17:59 - The principal agent problem when a bot holds your money 24:57 - Why accepting a card is harder than accepting a stablecoin 26:52 - Hacks, trust, and who decides which rail gets used 30:47 - Tether, Circle, OpenUSD, and whether one stablecoin wins 34:05 - Bitcoin as neutral money, and the compute mined challengers 38:27 - Could Bitcoin's consensus follow AI compute 40:36 - What the industry got wrong about web3 and consumer crypto 43:47 - From meme coins to real assets and tokenized fundraising 47:18 - Euro stablecoins and why every country needs a strategy 53:13 - Past the singularity, money moves to the back end If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research Keep up with Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 Keep up with Alfonso Gómez-Jordana: https://x.com/alfongj
September 12 · 1 hr 26 min
The Real Reason Your Bitcoin Isn't as Safe as You Think | Tyler Campbell
First Principles: self custody is a skill you practice, not a device you buy. Tyler Campbell, product manager at Unchained and one of the most experienced multisig onboarders in bitcoin, joins Cam Stromme to rebuild custody as a habit rather than a purchase. The through line is the one they both keep coming back to: find your single points of failure, and then go use your keys before the day you have to. --- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership. 👉 Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys — open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt 📩 Schedule a consultation: https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt First Principles: a Bitcoin education series from Onramp Media, hosted by Cam Stromme, Head of Private Wealth at Onramp. Long, unhurried conversations that build the hard questions in bitcoin back up from the ground, one principle at a time, so you can make better decisions about your own wealth. 🎙️ About This Episode Tyler Campbell spent years on Zoom calls walking people through their first hardware wallet, one seed phrase at a time, before moving to the product side at Unchained. That vantage point produces the argument at the center of this episode: almost everyone treats custody as something you buy once, and almost nobody treats it as something you rehearse. Cam pushes the comparison to gun ownership, where a person can own the right tool, attend one class, and still be useless in the moment that counts. Tyler's practical answer is smaller than people expect. Move a thousand dollars in. Move a thousand dollars back out. Do it before you need to. They also work through the privacy trade off of ever revealing yourself to a custody partner, what the entropy failure in the Coldcard exploit should actually change about your priors, why the lineage from Mt. Gox through FTX to Bybit is one repeated failure and not four, whether paying for custody is rational when you have been getting it free, and the conversation most bitcoiners avoid entirely: selling some of your bitcoin, and why Tyler is glad he did. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Two Bitcoiners, one Minneapolis meetup, ten years 01:19 - From private blockchains to bitcoin only 07:01 - Leaving Circle for Unchained in the Austin boom 14:42 - What collaborative custody actually is, and why onboarding is emotional work 20:53 - Eliminate your single points of failure 24:42 - The privacy trade off of using a partner 27:58 - Take it slow: move a thousand dollars in, then out 32:26 - You own the gun. You never went to the range. 35:52 - When the gold standard device is too much device 37:59 - The Coldcard hack: the entropy was not random 41:45 - Mt. Gox to FTX to Bybit: the same failure every time 44:51 - Do not get comfortable because the bullet missed you 47:21 - Should you actually pay for custody 51:15 - Still driving the car you bought ten years ago 54:22 - The cardinal sin: selling some of your bitcoin 59:58 - Bitcoin backed loans and what the rate tells you 1:07:31 - From onboarding calls to building the product 1:15:48 - Parting advice: tell a friend, try multisig 💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis: High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody. 📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research Subscribe to Onramp Media for more: 🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT Interview Series | FS Interview Series
September 11 · 33 min
Trump Just Promised $5,000 to Every American
An ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher says there is over a 10% chance AI ends humanity within the decade, and his warning has already pulled in 150 million impressions online. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Donald Trump promising $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans hold the midterms, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying nothing else matters if China wins the AI race, the 10-year Treasury yield near a 19-year high as the Treasury triples its bond buybacks, and a lightning round on OpenAI's contested 10,000-agent math proof. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? --- 🎙️ About The Show Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Intro 01:08 - Topic 1 - Trump Promises $5,000 to Every American If the GOP Wins 07:13 - Topic 2 - An AI Researcher Says There's a 10% Chance AI Ends Humanity ~13:30 - Topic 3 - Bessent Says Nothing Matters If China Wins the AI Race 23:25 - Topic 4 - The Bond Market's Yield Crisis and the Treasury's Buyback Escalation 29:24 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts 💡 Subscribe & Watch Live: ▶️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE ✖️ https://x.com/OnrampMedia 📰 Your 1-Stop News & Data Source: https://onramp.media/ 🔸 Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn 🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT / FS Interview Series
September 10 · 1 hr 28 min
Bessent Just Dealt Bitcoin a Winning Hand
The Last Trade: Scott Bessent told yen traders "I am the house now," and one day later the Treasury lifted its buyback program to $6 billion a day while the ten year yield hit fresh highs anyway. Jackson, Michael, and Brian break down what it means when intervention stops moving the tape, why a yen carry trade unwind is the tail risk nobody is pricing, and how Norway's $2.3 trillion fund cutting government bonds fits the same story. --- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership. 📩 Schedule a consultation: https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make. 🎙️ About This Episode The show opens on the Treasury lifting its buyback program from a $2 billion daily maximum to $6 billion starting Thursday, and on the fact that ten year and thirty year yields blew out anyway, one day after Scott Bessent told markets he is the house now on the dollar yen. Jackson walks through the yen carry trade, estimated anywhere from $4 trillion to $20 trillion, and what a 2024 style unwind did to equities and Bitcoin in a single session. Brian argues the whole exercise is the case for owning a monetary unit no committee can steer, while Michael reads the announcement itself as the tell: you do not say you are in control if you are. From there the conversation follows the capital that is actually moving, with Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund trimming government bonds, the world's largest managers rebuilding gold positions, and the bank capital rules that price allocated gold at zero and paper gold at 85%. The back half runs through Iran using Bitcoin and stablecoins to move trade, the MetaPlanet compensation structure and what the treasury company unwind cost retail, Liquid losing 4,000 BTC to a known vulnerability, the Malone Lam $245 million case, and the Anthropic resignation thread that put a ten percent extinction estimate in front of 100 million people. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Housekeeping, Philly happy hour, and tokenizing iBit 05:00 - Treasury raises buybacks to $6 billion a day 07:25 - Brian: the bond market does not care about intervention 10:03 - Michael: reading what they are not saying 15:31 - Bessent is the house, and the yen carry trade 18:28 - You do not announce that you are in control 21:03 - Norway's $2.3 trillion fund cuts government bonds 23:44 - Why banks hold allocated gold but not paper gold 29:26 - Iran turns to Bitcoin and stablecoins to move trade 36:19 - The coming split between clean and dirty Bitcoin 40:06 - MetaPlanet, the comp package, and the DAT unwind 46:42 - Retail got fleeced, not institutions 49:35 - Physical attacks and the market structure gap 54:51 - The third path: distribute trust, not one key 57:23 - Liquid loses 4,000 BTC to a known vulnerability 1:03:29 - Malone Lam, $245 million, and fake Google calls 1:09:58 - Anthropic resignation and the 10% extinction claim 💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis: High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody. 📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research Subscribe to Onramp Media for more: 🎧 The Last Trade | The Last Trade Interview Series | Final Settlement | First Principles
September 9 · 32 min
OpenAI Says AGI Has Arrived (90% of Jobs Are Next)
OpenAI just declared that AGI has arrived, launching GPT-6 Astra five days ago with materials calling it the start of the "AGI era." Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: what GPT-6 Astra means for jobs and the labor market, Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund proposing to cut its US Treasury holdings while institutional money managers rebuild gold positions, the demographic milestone of people over 65 now outnumbering children under five worldwide for the first time in recorded history, and a housing market where sellers can't sell and buyers can't get help with their mortgages. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? --- 🎙️ About The Show Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Intro 01:05 - Topic 1 - Global Food Prices and a Housing Market Nobody Can Sell 09:35 - Topic 2 - Elderly Now Outnumber Children Worldwide for the First Time 15:45 - Topic 3 - Gold Gets a Bid as Norway Proposes Cutting Treasuries 24:21 - Topic 4 - OpenAI Says AGI Has Arrived With GPT-6 Astra 💡 Subscribe & Watch Live: ▶️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE ✖️ https://x.com/OnrampMedia 📰 Your 1-Stop News & Data Source: https://onramp.media/ 🔸 Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn 🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement
September 9 · 59 min
AI Cybersecurity Just Stole $500M AGAIN (What's Next?)
Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contact Connect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/ Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media… Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development. Michael, Liam, and Brian open the first ever Final Settlement live stream on the Liquid Network exploit that drained roughly 4,000 Bitcoin, about $320 million, after the attacker inflated the supply of LBTC and pegged out against reserves the sidechain did not have. They get into hot keys and federation quorums, why the base chain held while the layer above it did not, and where the real spectrum of risk sits between an early stage protocol and a bank. The middle of the show turns to Ben Carmen open sourcing Lightspark's lightning service provider, GPT-6 Astra and the AGI question, and Matt Pines and StarCloud on physical superintelligence. The back half is settlement plumbing: 21 banks including Bank of America, Citi and Goldman lining up behind a joint dollar stablecoin, why the collateral layer is the real prize, the SEC's proposed transfer agent overhaul, Circle buying Tazapay, and the rumor that ARK, BlackRock and Fidelity could trade tokenized funds through a transfer agent alone. They close on AMC's chief executive going after Robinhood over tokenized stock, and the meme coins now paired to it. Chapters 00:00 - The first ever Final Settlement live stream 01:37 - 4,000 Bitcoin drained from the Liquid Network 04:21 - How the LBTC supply was inflated 06:11 - Hot keys, quorums, and why TradFi moves slowly 09:21 - The added risk of moving off the base chain 12:54 - A spectrum of risk, from Mt. Gox to open protocols 15:45 - Ben Carmen open sources Lightspark's LSP 18:56 - GPT-6 Astra, Claude 5.1, and the AGI question 22:27 - Matt Pines, StarCloud, and physical superintelligence 24:26 - 21 banks line up behind a joint stablecoin 25:24 - Why the collateral layer is the real prize 29:37 - Transfer agents, T+0, and who owns the ledger 37:16 - Felix Pago, Open Reserve, and Circle buying Tazapay 41:39 - The rumor: tokenized funds from ARK, BlackRock, Fidelity 45:49 - Pledging your ETF and the daisy chain risk 48:34 - AMC's CEO versus Robinhood on tokenized stock 52:54 - Meme coins paired to tokenized equity If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research Keep up with Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma Keep up with Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 Keep up with Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC
September 3 · 1 hr 12 min
The Treasury Just Lost Control of the Bond Market
The Last Trade: government bond yields are blowing out across the developed world, Japan's 10-year hit 3% for the first time since 1996, and the Treasury's buyback program has already been overrun. Jackson, Michael, and Brian trace what a global bond rout means for hard assets, why $3.5 billion went into Bitcoin ETFs in August, and what it says that 21 of the largest banks just announced a joint dollar stablecoin. --- 🔸 Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership. 👉 Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys — open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt 📩 Schedule a consultation: https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make. 🎙️ About This Episode The show opens on the worst stretch for government bonds in decades, with Japan's 10-year yield at 3% for the first time since 1996 and long-end yields retracing past where they sat before the Treasury announced its buyback program two weeks ago. Jackson makes the case that bond investors are finally calling the bluff, and Brian argues the interventions to date are nowhere near enough and that another balance-sheet expansion event is the only exit. Michael brings the chart that frames the week: since 2014, inflation-adjusted, gold is up 145% while bonds are down 20%, and he pushes on why the 60/40 doctrine survives at all when the risk-free asset is guaranteed to lose money in real terms. Then the counterweight: $3.5 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in August, the biggest month in over a year, Bitcoin closed up 25% for its best month since November 2024, and iBit is now outperforming Vanguard's S&P 500 fund since inception. The back half covers 21 banks including Goldman, Bank of America and Deutsche launching a joint dollar stablecoin in 2027, a data breach exposing 153 million driver's licenses, and data-center developers cutting $10,000 checks to residents. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Housekeeping, live events, and the fantasy draft 05:50 - The worst stretch for global bonds in decades 07:53 - Brian: the interventions are not going to be enough 10:01 - Gold up 145%, bonds down 20%, inflation adjusted 11:29 - Hooray for the bond market: what the mainstream is told 14:29 - Why 60/40 survives when the ballast loses money 18:28 - The hard asset renaissance and the next allocation shift 20:06 - Bitcoin as the fire alarm on the print that is coming 22:30 - $3.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, the best month since 2024 28:02 - Brian: the backdrop has changed, this is a new regime 28:24 - What is already breaking: housing, auctions, layoffs 32:38 - iBit is beating the S&P 500 fund since inception 34:55 - 21 banks announce a joint dollar stablecoin for 2027 44:00 - Why the system repurposes the wheel around Bitcoin 49:57 - Single point of failure: 153 million licenses exposed 56:22 - Uber cuts 10%, and data centers pay residents $10,000 1:04:57 - Why companies may start holding gold on the balance sheet 💡 Subscribe & Stay Ahead Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis: High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody. 📩 https://onrampbitcoin.com/research Subscribe to Onramp Media for more: 🎧 The Last Trade | The Last Trade Interview Series | Final Settlement | First Principles
September 2 · 38 min
This Warning Sign Hasn't Been Seen Since 1996
Global bond yields just climbed to their highest level since 2008, with Japan's 10-year notes touching 3% for the first time since 1996, as traders price in a near seventy percent chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: the global bond selloff and a central banking system with no good options left, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's push to redirect ten trillion euros of household savings into EU companies, a Wall Street Journal piece on Americans melting down family heirlooms for cash, and South Korea giving its entire population free, unlimited access to AI. Where's the signal, and where's the noise? --- 🎙️ About The Show Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each. 🧠 Chapters 00:00 - Intro 00:31 - Topic 1 - The EU Wants Your Savings 08:05 - Topic 2 - Melting Down the Family Silver 18:11 - Topic 3 - Global Bond Yields Hit Their Highest Level Since 2008 26:10 - Topic 4 - South Korea Gives Its Whole Country Free AI 34:02 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts 💡 Subscribe & Watch Live: ▶️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE ✖️ https://x.com/OnrampMedia 📰 Your 1-Stop News & Data Source: https://onramp.media/ 🔸 Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account. 👉 https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn 🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

Showing 1–20 of 39 episodes