Markets Unscripted

2 Traders, 1 Goal - Honest Conversations

Markets Unscripted brings together two traders who approach the same world from opposite sides — and still end up finding truth in the same place.

Each episode cuts through noise, narrative, and prediction to uncover what’s actually moving markets — the behaviour, psychology, and structure underneath price.

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S1 · E41
Monday · 38 min
Bonds Are Tanking. The Stock Market Doesn’t Care.
Investors keep calling AI a bubble and trying to pick the bottom in bonds. But what if they’re getting both trades wrong?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why stocks keep climbing despite rising bond yields—and why Jason still isn’t convinced the bond market has found its ultimate low.Matt also explores an emerging part of the AI trade: healthcare companies applying the technology to cancer testing, heart scans, and genetic analysis. While the debate stays focused on Nvidia, could the next wave of opportunities already be developing elsewhere?Inside this episode:• Why “oversold” doesn’t mean bonds are ready to bounce• The Russell 2000’s changing reaction to higher yields• Why Matt and Jason challenge the AI bubble narrative• AI’s expansion beyond chips and into healthcare• The danger of being right about a bubble—and too early to survive the trade• Why confirmation bias can put you on the wrong side of a major trendAre you following what the market is doing—or waiting for it to agree with you?Subscribe for more Markets Unscripted with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.Connect with the hosts:Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights: https://www.carusoinsights.comJason Shapiro — Crowded Market Report: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com#StockMarket #AIStocks #BondMarket #MarketsUnscripted
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September 28 · 49 min
Matt's Long AI. Jason’s Short the Dow. Both Are Making Money.
Matt is long leading AI stocks. Jason is short the Dow. Both trades are working. How can that happen in the same market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine the divide between a small group of strong stocks and weakness across much of the broader market. They discuss rising bond yields, stubborn oil prices, and why Jason is growing wary of the widespread claim that stocks are “resilient.”Matt looks back at the late 1990s, when weak market breadth appeared well before the technology rally ended. He also shares what he is watching in AI-related stocks. Jason explains why he remains short the Dow and what he would need to see before considering a long trade in the Russell 2000.They may hold opposite positions, but both return to the same lesson: follow your process, manage risk, and let the market confirm your view.Learn more about Matt: https://www.carusoinsights.com/Learn more about Jason: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/Subscribe to Markets Unscripted for more conversations with Matt and Jason. What are you seeing right now: strength that can spread, or a rally getting too narrow?00:00 A resilient market with weakness underneath00:58 Bonds, yields, and the stock market disconnect01:50 Why the resilience consensus worries Jason08:52 The trap of repeatedly buying the bond dip12:41 The Russell 2000 signal Jason is watching14:29 Is the whole market resilient—or just AI?15:50 What the late 1990s can teach us25:03 Why weak breadth isn’t a timing signal27:10 Long leading stocks, short the Dow33:33 The danger of trusting one indicator38:11 Conflicting signals and knowing when to wait40:26 Missing big trends: Tesla, Apple, and investor bias45:05 Risk management and letting the market confirm47:11 What Matt and Jason are watching next
September 21 · 46 min
Bad News, Bearish Sentiment… and a Market Breaking Out
Join Matt’s FREE live AMA tomorrow, Tuesday! Bring your stock and trading questions. Register here:https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1917900177069/WN_jeYuoQGdTxGh-N4_4Hbfaw Can’t attend live? Register to receive the recording.Connect with the hosts:• Matt Caruso — Caruso Insights• Jason Shapiro — Crowded Market ReportThe bears got the headlines they wanted. Stocks rallied anyway.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down a market that keeps absorbing bad news—and explain why the reaction can tell you more than the headline itself.Matt highlights strength across AI hardware, cybersecurity, software, and healthcare, while Jason explains why crowded positioning alone isn’t enough to make a contrarian trade. They also debate whether bonds need to recover for stocks to keep climbing, challenge the AI bubble narrative, and discuss the evidence they want before increasing exposure.Plus: why following the tape means being willing to change your mind, why a bullish outlook doesn’t justify going all in, and how to build a trading process you can stick with through months of frustrating price action.In this episode:• The bond market debate: positioning, sentiment, and confirmation• What the semiconductor rebound says about bad-news failure• AI leadership beyond hardware• Bearish sentiment near market highs• Matt’s up/down volume and high-yield bond indicators• Position sizing, risk management, and staying flexible• Building a trading process that fits your lifeSubscribe to Markets Unscripted for weekly conversations with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.00:00 Stocks rally as bad news fails to break the market01:59 Jason’s bond warning: crowded positioning isn’t enough04:32 The three ingredients of a contrarian trade06:04 Semiconductors rebound after the AI scare07:39 Matt’s approach to finding relative strength09:23 Do higher interest rates threaten the AI trade?11:14 AI funding, regulation, and the IPO narrative14:07 Why Jason challenges the AI bubble comparison17:49 AI leadership expands beyond hardware21:49 How traders think about participating in bubbles24:02 Bearish sentiment near market highs25:31 Matt’s indicators: volume and high-yield bonds29:00 Why this breakout may look different from April’s rally32:00 Following the tape without going all in36:02 Compounding, drawdowns, and thinking beyond one trade39:18 Lessons from trading through uncertainty40:29 Predictions, confirmation bias, and financial media42:47 Accepting uncertainty and managing risk44:25 Building a process that fits your life45:54 Closing thoughts
S1 · E38
September 14 · 45 min
Oil Above $100. Yields at 5%. Stocks Won’t Break.
Oil is above $100. The 10-year yield has touched 5%. Rate hikes are being priced in, and new concerns are building around the future of AI.On paper, it looks like the perfect environment for stocks to break down—but the market continues to hold near its highs.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what the market’s resilience may be telling investors. They discuss whether a Fed rate hike could unexpectedly become a bullish catalyst, why trading the headlines can be so dangerous, and what the market’s reaction to bad news reveals beneath the surface.They also explore the motives behind calls to slow AI development, the enormous capital still flowing into the industry, and why returning to the market with leveraged call options could be a classic case of revenge trading.In this episode:Why the market refuses to break despite mounting risksWhether a rate hike could actually help stocks and bondsWhat oil above $100 and the 10-year yield at 5% meanWhy the reaction to news matters more than the headlineThe contradiction inside the latest AI warningsThe hidden risks of leverage and optionsWhy discipline and process ultimately separate successful tradersFollow Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comFollow Jason Shapiro and Crowded Market Report:https://crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
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September 8 · 41 min
Market’s Most Important Turning Point of 2026?
The market has spent months stuck in neutral—but beneath the surface, something may be changing.Bond yields remain one of the biggest pressures facing stocks, particularly the AI companies spending heavily to build out infrastructure. Yet several former market leaders are beginning to show strength again, even while the major indexes remain below their recent highs.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine what could finally move the market out of its sideways range—and why the reaction to the next inflation report may matter far more than the number itself.They discuss:• The signal that would show stocks are beginning to look beyond inflation• Why a market that refuses to fall on bad news deserves attention• Renewed strength across AI, semiconductor, power and infrastructure stocks• How to separate a temporary squeeze from the start of a sustainable move• Why betting on the end of the financial system has historically been a losing strategy• Crowded positioning in bonds, wheat, corn, cotton and other agricultural markets• What weakness in defense stocks may already be signaling• Why patience is essential when markets are trapped in a sideways environmentThe goal is not to predict CPI, interest rates or the Federal Reserve’s next decision. It is to watch how the market responds—and wait for the evidence before increasing risk.Learn more from Matt Caruso:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
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August 31 · 46 min
Stocks, Bonds & the Dollar Are ALL Falling — Only Bitcoin Is Left
The S&P is 2% off all-time highs — so why are Meta, Oracle, Broadcom, Micron and most of the AI leaders ALREADY in bear markets?Matt Caruso and Jason break down what's really going on beneath a "calm" market: a bond market under pressure in every major country at once, credit spreads priced for perfection, a Treasury Secretary who suddenly won't stay off TV, and a tape that's telling you exactly when NOT to press. Plus a rare COT flip in the NASDAQ, the El Niño trades (sugar, cotton, corn) getting dangerously crowded, why Bitcoin is the only thing working, and what Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole message means for the Fed.⏱ TIMESTAMPS00:00 Late-summer chop — markets biased to the downside02:49 The crowded 30-year bond trade (why COT alone isn't enough)05:00 It's global: Japan, Germany, UK, Canada yields all breaking out06:26 AI capex is now DEBT-fueled — why bonds ARE the AI trade09:29 "It'll make '08 look like a day in the park"11:42 Is Bessent panicking? The election-year parallel to 200813:15 High beta must lead — and the leaders are in bear markets15:06 Bitcoin: the only thing rallying15:35 Market internals: highs vs. lows show a stalled, defensive tape21:15 The blown-up hedge fund's stocks — 25% now at new lows24:36 The Barron's cover says "keep dancing" (contrarian alarm?)26:33 Fading El Niño: sugar, cotton & corn getting crowded31:02 Rare COT flip in the NASDAQ — specs are buying the dip33:33 NVIDIA's $650B revenue path vs. an awful tape35:56 IPO froth returns: Anthropic, OpenAI & bubble signs37:48 The 2000 playbook: indices at highs while leaders crash40:10 Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole: humility returns to the Fed44:31 Bottom line: it all comes down to the bond marketIf you got value from this, do the algo thing — hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE so you don't miss next week's episode.This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.#stockmarket #bondmarket #aistocks #investing #trading #bitcoin
S1 · E35
August 24 · 44 min
The Bond Market Is Finally Saying “Enough” and the Market is Feeling It!
The major indexes may still be near their highs, but beneath the surface, the market is sending a very different message.Consumer staples are outperforming. Coca-Cola is pushing higher. NVIDIA and other AI leaders are weakening—even when the news appears positive. At the same time, rising long-term yields and intervention in the Treasury market are raising bigger questions about how the enormous AI buildout will be financed.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro discuss:• Why defensive stocks are suddenly taking the lead• What the bond market may be warning investors about• Why AI stocks are struggling to rally on good news• The growing financing risk behind the AI infrastructure boom• Why long-term bonds may be the most contrarian trade in the world• How professional traders stack the odds without predicting the future• Why position sizing matters—even when the setup looks perfectThe market does not care about the story. Ultimately, the tape tells you what is actually happening.Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights:https://www.carusoinsights.comRead Jason Shapiro’s Crowded Market Report:https://www.crowdedmarketreport.comThis content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.#StockMarket #AIStocks #NVIDIA #BondMarket #Trading
August 17 · 44 min
Crowded Longs, Failing AI Leadership & the 90% Win-Rate Lie
The market is sitting near all-time highs—but beneath the surface, some of its former leaders are flashing warning signs. In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why many AI-related stocks have struggled to reclaim their highs despite a powerful rebound in the broader indexes. They break down the changing leadership in names such as NVIDIA, AMD, ARM, Dell, Caterpillar, Nebius, and others—and discuss why traders should never fall in love with yesterday’s winners. Jason also reveals one of the most crowded trades he currently sees, while Matt explains why rising volatility and weakening relative strength have pushed him toward a more cautious posture. Then, the conversation turns to one of the most misleading statistics in trading: win rate. Why can a 70%, 80%, or even 90% win rate be a major red flag? Matt and Jason explain how traders can win repeatedly and still suffer devastating losses—and why risk-to-reward, drawdowns, and the size of your winners matter far more than simply being right. In this episode: • Why former AI leaders are struggling • The warning beneath the market’s record highs • Why lagging stocks are rarely bargains • Jason’s crowded-trade warning on copper • The hidden danger of short selling • Why trading more often can work against you • The truth behind advertised 90% win rates • How professional traders evaluate performance Learn more from Matt Caruso and Caruso Insights: https://www.carusoinsights.com Follow Jason Shapiro and the Crowded Market Report: https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com This content is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized investment advice.
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August 10 · 44 min
Bears Sound Smart. Bulls Make Money.
The market is back near all-time highs, corporate earnings are surging, and strength is expanding far beyond a handful of AI stocks. Yet many traders remain fixated on finding the next major collapse.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro examine why bearish arguments can sound so convincing—even while the market continues moving higher. They discuss the danger of becoming emotionally attached to the short side, why traders should focus on the market’s reaction to news, and what would actually signal that the bullish trend is beginning to break.Matt and Jason also break down the crowded positioning in the Dow, the recent breakout and reversal in the S&P 500, the upcoming inflation test, booming corporate earnings, expanding liquidity, and the growing strength across international markets, commodities, and traditional industries.The goal is not to remain bullish forever. It is to stop predicting what should happen and start responding to what the market is actually telling you.
S1 · E32
July 6 · 35 min
Banks, Gold, Biotech & AI: The Rotation Trade
AI stocks finally got hit with their first major test of this uptrend.After months of relentless strength, the leading AI names saw sharp volatility, major pullbacks, and a wave of rotation into banks, biotech, gold, small caps, and other areas of the market.So is the AI trade over?Or is this just the first real shakeout before the next leg higher?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the current market rotation, the crowded macro narrative around rates, the setup in gold and the dollar, why banks and healthcare have started to lead, and what the recent selloff in AI stocks may really be telling investors.They also discuss why big winners come with brutal pullbacks, why process matters more than prediction, and why no strategy avoids pain — it only defines how you handle it.Topics covered:AI stock volatilityMarket rotation into banks, biotech, and small capsGold, bonds, the dollar, and rate expectationsWhy crowded narratives can be dangerousThe first pullback to the 50-day moving averageWhy the AI trade may not be over yetTrading psychology after big gainsWhy there is no “perfect” trading strategyThis is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and all trading decisions should be based on your own process and risk management.
S1 · E31
June 29 · 53 min
The Bears Have A Great Story. The Bulls Have The Trend.
Everyone wants to call the AI trade over.But what if this is not the end of the move — just the rotation before the next leg higher?In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market may be shifting beneath the surface, how small caps, banks, healthcare, housing, and AI leaders are rotating, and why the biggest mistake traders make is letting scary narratives override process.Matt also compares today’s AI buildout to the railroad boom of the 1800s — a massive infrastructure cycle that almost nobody believed in at the time — while Jason lays out the real risk: not that AI disappears, but that leverage, hubris, or credit stress eventually breaks something.They also discuss why bearish arguments always sound smarter, why bull markets are harder to sit through than people think, and how to use market signals instead of social media panic to guide decisions.
S1 · E30
June 22 · 55 min
This Is the Most Hated Bull Market Ever
Everyone keeps trying to call the top… but the market keeps refusing to agree.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may be one of the most hated bull markets they’ve ever seen — with AI, semiconductors, small caps, and new 52-week highs continuing to push higher while investors stay trapped in bearish narratives.They discuss why fighting the tape can be deadly for traders, how AI could be reshaping entire industries, why relative strength still matters more than opinions, and what signs Jason would actually need to see before calling a real market top.From Micron, NVIDIA, ARM, Intel, Caterpillar, small caps, Fed reactions, positioning data, and the psychology of investors waiting for the “perfect pullback,” this episode digs into the market’s biggest question:Is this a bubble… or are most people still underestimating the AI boom?
S1 · E29
June 15 · 52 min
BELIEVE IT OR NOT… THE MARKET IS STRENGTHENING
Markets are rallying hard again — and despite the constant bearish arguments, the tape keeps telling a very different story.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the market appears to be broadening beyond the AI trade, with strength showing up in small caps, regional banks, healthcare, industrials, and other areas that many investors are still ignoring.They also dig into the psychology of traders who stay bearish no matter what the data says, why relative strength matters more than opinions, and how the market often reveals the truth long before the explanation becomes obvious.Matt also revisits the 2000 IPO comparison, including how lockup expirations actually played out during the dot-com peak — and why the timing of today’s IPO concerns may be very different from what the bears are arguing.Plus, Jason shares why AI may be a much bigger productivity shift than many people realize, and why the winners and losers from this new era could be massive.Topics covered:Why the bull market may be getting stronger under the surfaceSmall caps and regional banks showing surprising leadershipWhy bearish arguments keep shiftingThe danger of fighting the tapeAI as a productivity superpowerThe 2000 IPO parallel and what people may be missingHow Matt uses a “FOMO indicator” to manage short-term riskWhy relative strength keeps pointing to opportunityThis is not a market to sleep on.
S1 · E28
June 8 · 48 min
Is Liquidity the Real Risk to the AI Bull Market?
Last Friday, the AI trade finally hit a wall.After months of relentless strength, several high-flying AI-related stocks were hit hard, while a popular 3X South Korea ETF tied to the memory and storage trade collapsed more than 40%. Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may not be “the top,” but could be an important warning sign about leverage, liquidity, and crowded positioning.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt and Jason revisit Jesse Livermore’s famous 1906 liquidity warning, when competing capital raises in the railroad sector helped signal trouble before a major market decline. Today, the question is whether massive funding needs from AI infrastructure, Google, Meta, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could eventually strain market liquidity.They also discuss why bull markets usually do not end in one day, how deleveraging events can reveal the next leadership group, and why traders should be watching which stocks hold up best during market weakness.The conversation also covers possible next-stage AI beneficiaries beyond chips, including healthcare, software, data infrastructure, and select names showing relative strength.Topics covered:The AI trade’s sharp selloffLiquidity risk vs. valuation riskGoogle and Meta’s massive capital raisesSpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPO concernsJesse Livermore’s 1906 warning signalWhy leverage can destroy traders fastHow to spot real leadership during market pullbacksEli Lilly, Snowflake, Twilio, Veeco, and other AI-adjacent setupsBitcoin’s relative weaknessWhy position sizing matters more than most traders thinkThis episode is not about calling a bear market. It is about identifying the warning signs that could matter if liquidity starts to dry up.
S1 · E27
June 1 · 1 hr 20 min
SpaceX IPO: Former NASA Chief Engineer on Elon’s Launch Dominance
SpaceX could be heading toward one of the biggest IPOs in market history — but is it a bubble, a breakthrough, or something even bigger?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro sit down with Greg Frady, former NASA Chief Engineer for early commercial crew, commercial payloads, and the commercial lunar lander program. With 38 years of experience across major space programs, Greg breaks down what investors need to understand about SpaceX, Starlink, reusable rockets, Blue Origin, space-based data centers, satellite networks, and the commercialization of space.The conversation goes far beyond valuation. They discuss how Elon Musk changed the economics of launch, why Falcon 9 was such a major unlock, whether space data centers are actually possible, how Starlink could reshape global communications, and why companies like Planet Labs and AST SpaceMobile may represent the next wave of space-driven opportunities.They also cover the biggest risks investors may be underestimating — including launch failures, supply chain dependencies, government contracts, regulation, and why space stocks can move violently when things go wrong.Is the SpaceX IPO the top of the market… or the start of something much bigger?Key Timestamps00:00 — SpaceX IPO could be one of the biggest ever01:46 — How commercialization changed the space industry03:57 — Why Falcon 9 and reusable rockets changed the economics06:30 — Starlink, vertical integration, and SpaceX’s satellite advantage09:27 — How much SpaceX reduced launch costs15:45 — Why space is still hard despite SpaceX making it look easy19:28 — Did Blue Origin’s failure make SpaceX even more valuable?23:08 — What investors may be missing in the SpaceX valuation26:37 — Are space-based AI data centers actually possible?51:23 — Planet Labs, agriculture, and real-world space use cases
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May 26 · 1 hr 25 min
Is The AI Pullback Just Starting? | Real Simple Ariel Joins
Markets are finally showing selling pressure — and this time, the biggest AI leaders are taking the hit.In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro are joined by Ariel Hernandez, known on X as Real Simple Ariel, for a deep discussion on AI stocks, momentum trading, market rotation, short setups, overextended leaders, and why traders need to know where they are wrong before entering a position.The group breaks down whether the AI trade is simply pulling back… or whether this is the first real warning sign that the hottest part of the market is getting crowded.They also discuss NBIS, Micron, ARM, SanDisk, Rocket Lab, software rotation, energy breakouts, IPO froth, SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and why the market may be entering a much more fragile phase.Key themes covered:AI stock pullbackMomentum leaders getting extendedWhy trimming into strength mattersHow traders know when to slow downThe danger of buying every dipShorting weak stocks in a strong marketWhether AI is still early — or already priced inThe coming mega IPO waveWhy price action matters more than opinionsKey Timestamps00:00 — AI stocks finally face selling pressure01:26 — Ariel breaks down the historic semiconductor run03:10 — Why strong leaders still need consolidation04:24 — Energy stocks break out while tech pulls back05:18 — The danger of buying every AI dip06:04 — Ariel’s “moving train” trading analogy07:35 — Jason questions where the uptrend breaks09:00 — Why new highs before the market matter10:43 — Jason: momentum works… until the bull market ends12:24 — Ariel explains when his own trades tell him to slow down13:57 — Jason praises listening to the market, not opinions16:19 — Ariel’s two favorite short-selling setups18:48 — Why short trades are usually quick tactical moves21:02 — Cybersecurity finally starts catching a bid22:47 — Bitcoin bros, positioning, and crowd psychology25:48 — “Do you want to be right or make money?”30:56 — Why every trade needs an exit before entry38:14 — How Ariel trims overextended leaders53:17 — Is AI still early, or already priced in?1:22:11 — The mega IPO warning: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic
S1 · E24
May 11 · 1 hr 4 min
Don’t Miss the Monster Stock Moves
Saturday May 16th Workshop Register Here: www.marketsunscripted.comEveryone is screaming “AI bubble”… but what if they are looking at the wrong thing?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the red-hot AI rally, why Corning’s move may be more than just hype, and why the comparison to 1999 may be dangerously misleading.Matt walks through why some stocks can actually become more attractive as they rise, while Jason explains why his contrarian process is not flashing the usual warning signs yet. They also discuss positioning, sentiment, passive investing, the next layer of AI infrastructure, and how traders should recover if they missed the move.Plus, Matt and Jason talk about the upcoming Markets Unscripted live workshop and the mindset needed to survive one of the fastest markets we have seen in years.Key Timestamps:00:00 — Is this an AI bubble… or just getting started?00:52 — Corning explodes higher on Nvidia news04:58 — Jason explains why he is taking the AI bull case seriously09:13 — Are AI valuations actually crazy?13:52 — Matt explains how to recognize a rare market environment16:12 — Jason says the dangerous words: “It’s different this time”20:20 — Why being underexposed to AI may feel like being short25:36 — Matt compares today’s rally to the dot-com era30:57 — Jason’s warning from surviving the 1999 bubble49:08 — What to do if you missed the AI move
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May 4 · 58 min
Google Put AI Bears on Notice — This Isn’t a Bubble
Register for the upcoming workshop on May 16, 2026: www.marketsunscripted.comIs AI really in a bubble — or are traders making the same mistake they’ve made in every major bull market?In this episode of Markets Unscripted, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why the latest Google earnings report may be a major turning point for the AI trade. Matt explains why improving AI monetization, accelerating usage, stronger cloud demand, and better unit economics could crush one of the biggest bearish arguments against AI.Jason pushes back on the bubble narrative and explains why so many traders calling this a “bubble” may actually be a sign the move is not as crowded as people think. The discussion also covers why shorting strength can be so dangerous, what traders can learn from the Big Short, the dot-com bubble, Apple, Nvidia, semiconductors, software, and why the best opportunities often look scary before they become obvious.Plus, Matt and Jason discuss the upcoming Markets Unscripted Live Workshop with live Q&A, where they’ll go deeper into the process, tools, and frameworks behind how they analyze markets in real time.TIMESTAMPS00:00 — Market races higher despite oil and Middle East tensions01:20 — Why Google earnings may be a game changer for AI02:30 — Google’s AI monetization, Gemini growth, and cloud demand05:00 — Matt: the AI bubble argument may be falling apart06:12 — Jason: “A bubble is a bull market I’m not long”09:20 — Why the tape keeps rejecting bad news10:37 — The danger of trying to catch the next “Big Short”16:25 — What positioning data says about Nasdaq traders19:30 — The AI bear case is shifting25:30 — Why underweight managers may be “short by performance”28:58 — Jason: fading price is one of the biggest mistakes traders make32:31 — Matt on why true market leaders take time to play out37:03 — Ride winners, cut losers50:30 — Semiconductors, software, and the AI rotation trade51:45 — How to track semis vs. software with SMH/IGV55:24 — Nvidia, competition, and the next layer of AI winners57:30 — Markets Unscripted live workshop announcement
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April 27 · 55 min
Traders Are Getting Locked Out Of The AI Rally
Upcoming Workshop: May 16, 2025Register here: https://www.marketsunscripted.com/ The AI trade is heating up again, and Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down why this may still be the dominant force driving the bull market higher. They discuss why every major bull market usually has one leading theme, how traders psychologically lock themselves out of big winners, and why the AI move may still have much further to go before the real “bubble” phase even begins.Jason also shares lessons from past bubbles, including Hong Kong in the 1990s and the dot-com boom, while Matt explains why the next phase of AI could come from real-world adoption, earnings season volatility, and new leadership stocks.If you are trying to understand whether this AI rally is still buyable, too extended, or turning into something much bigger, this episode is a must-watch.Key Timestamps00:00 — Every bull market has one leading theme01:45 — Why AI is the only trade that matters right now07:49 — The trap of thinking stocks are either “too risky” or “too extended”11:26 — Is AI already a bubble, or is it still early?12:26 — Jason’s brutal lessons from past market bubbles20:22 — What real bubbles actually feel like28:02 — How COT data helped catch past market tops31:44 — Why earnings season could be the next major test40:08 — Why the war and macro fears may not stop the AI trend47:41 — Matt’s view on exposure, hedging, and waiting for new setups49:43 — “If it’s a bull market, don’t lose your lips”53:07 — Why this may be the exact environment for William O’Neil-style trading
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April 21 · 39 min
Bears Keep Fighting This Market Rally!
The market keeps ripping higher, and a lot of investors are getting left behind trying to make sense of it.In this episode, Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro break down the speed of the rebound, why this rally feels so unusual, and what history might be telling us right now. Matt compares today’s move to the powerful rallies of the 1990s, explains why shorting strength can be dangerous, and looks at whether this is a true lockout rally or just a catch-up move after extreme downside pressure.If you’ve been wondering whether this market has gone too far too fast, this episode will make you think twice.Key Timestamps0:00 Markets are racing higher in a powerful lockout rally0:30 Why the speed of this rebound has shocked so many investors0:52 Matt studies past market precedents, including 1995–19961:18 Is this rally extreme… or just a catch-up move after heavy pressure?1:38 The 1996 comparison: 24 up days in 29 sessions2:08 Jason weighs in on whether this rally can keep goingSubscribe for more weekly market breakdowns with Matt Caruso and Jason Shapiro.

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