Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

Play

Open in

28 episodes
Avg 41 min
English

Episodes 28

Newest Oldest Longest

All20 Unplayed20 In progress0 Played0

Counted on this page — what you have heard stays on this device, so it is not something the list can be paged by.

September 27 · 43 min
The Market's Only Job | 2026 Options & Trading Psychology with JJ Kinahan
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President at Cboe Global Markets. Recorded September 24th 2026. JJ shares timeless trading wisdom from his early days as a pit trader, explaining why learning to "break even" and cut losers is the most critical survival skill for any investor. We dig into why equity traders should always consult the options chain to understand the implied move of a stock, how the VIX serves as a risk monitor (and why a reading over 25 demands your attention), and the rise of Zero DTE (Days to Expiration) options as a precise hedging tool for both retail and institutional traders. The conversation also explores Cboe's push into SEC-regulated prediction markets, allowing investors to trade specific corporate KPIs (like Amazon Web Services revenue) rather than relying on the unpredictable stock reactions that often follow earnings reports. 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless trading wisdom: Why surviving the first six months in the options pit required learning to break even and ruthlessly cut losing trades • Using options data for equity trading: Why checking the "implied move" of a stock (e.g., Apple or Netflix) prevents emotional decision-making when volatility strikes • The truth about 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options: How the market is evenly split between retail speculation and precise institutional daily hedging • Understanding the VIX: Why a reading of 15 is a green-yellow light, 20 is a yellow light, and 25 is a flashing warning to pay attention • The psychological power of trading in "partials": Why scaling in and out of risk prevents the catastrophic "all-or-nothing" panic selling that plagues retail investors • Navigating the new frontier of SEC-regulated prediction markets: Trading specific corporate KPIs (like Home Depot's Home & Garden revenue) rather than the overall stock price • Generating synthetic yield: How selling covered calls (thinking in terms of the strike price plus premium) allows investors to enhance returns while defining their exit points • Why "Hope" is a dangerous four-letter word: The fatal mistake of turning a defined short-term trade into a long-term investment because it went against you 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
September 24 · 38 min
Don't Jump in Front of the Freight Train! | 2026 Tech Dominance & RRGs with Julius de Kempenaer
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Julius de Kempenaer, Founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph. Recorded September 22nd 2026. Celebrating the 20th anniversary of the RRG's early development, Julius shares masterclass-level techniques for reading rotation, emphasizing why the 0 to 90-degree "northeast heading" is the ultimate technical sweet spot. We dig into why horrible market breadth doesn't matter when the mega-cap tech "freight train" (MAG7 and XLK) makes up 50% of the index and is breaking out to new highs, making shorting a catastrophic mistake. The conversation also explores advanced RRG tactics like swapping benchmarks to find hidden alpha in weak sectors, mapping absolute returns using the $ONE benchmark, and identifying the stealth rotation of defensive sectors that signals a true market warning. 📈 Topics Covered • Celebrating 20 years of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG): From early scatter plots at Fidelity to a staple visualization on global financial terminals • Mastering the RRG "heading": Why a 0 to 90-degree northeast trajectory is the most powerful indicator of relative strength and momentum • The "freight train" market: Why horrible underlying breadth is completely overridden when Technology and the MAG7 are pushing toward all-time highs • Advanced benchmark swapping: How institutional managers change the center point to SPY or $ONE to find hidden outperforming stocks inside lagging sectors • The ultimate market warning sign: Watching defensive sectors (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare) quietly push into the "Improving" quadrant while offensive sectors roll over • Reconciling multiple timeframes: How to read a sector like Energy that is firmly "Leading" on the weekly RRG but taking a negative-heading breather on the daily chart • Why technical analysts have the luxury of reacting to the market's reality rather than trying to predict the exact peak of a momentum cycle 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
September 13 · 46 min
It's All About the Timeframe | Riding the Elliott Wave with Kyle Crystal
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kyle Crystal, CMT, founder of Lake Shore Technical Analysis and portfolio manager at Crystal Capital Advisors. Recorded September 10th 2026. Kyle discusses his unique journey from studying jazz guitar to becoming a portfolio manager, exploring the deep cognitive parallels between reading musical scores and analyzing technical chart slopes. We dig into his rigorous approach to multiple timeframe analysis, why he strictly lives in the "weekly-to-daily" sweet spot to stay profitable and happy, and how the 2009 financial crisis proved that a company's fundamentals are often entirely disconnected from its stock price. The conversation also explores the misunderstood genius of Elliott Wave theory for defining risk and reward, the critical difference between forecasting "things that walk" (equities/meats) versus "things that grow" (grains), and the painful lessons learned from applying the wrong momentum tools to the wrong asset classes. 📈 Topics Covered • The musician's edge in finance: Exploring the visual, right-brain connections between reading jazz charts and analyzing technical price action • Surviving the 2009 crash: Why Kyle abandoned pure fundamental analysis after realizing that a great company does not necessarily equal a great stock • Decoding multiple timeframes: Mapping the exact duration and magnitude expectations for daily, weekly, and monthly chart signals • The "Weekly-to-Daily" sweet spot: Why living in higher timeframes causes delayed reactions, while zooming in too close destroys your lifestyle • Demystifying Elliott Wave theory: How to correctly use wave structures as a "logic calculator" to strictly define risk and reward levels • Why Elliott Wave gets a bad reputation: The danger of analysts trying to predict massive, multi-year macro structures instead of actionable, near-term waves • The "Walk vs. Grow" framework: Understanding the distinct personality differences between trading equities/meats ("things that walk") versus grains/softs ("things that grow") • Learning through pain: How failing in the commodities market taught Kyle that standard equity momentum oscillators do not easily translate to agricultural futures 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
September 12 · 39 min
965 Billion | How The Mag 3 TRIPLED Amazons all time profits with Kevin Carter
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with Kevin Carter, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of EMQQ Global and EMX ETF. Recorded September 8th 2026. Kevin breaks down the global AI ecosystem into a distinct "five-layer stack," explaining why emerging markets—specifically Taiwan, South Korea, and China—control the most critical infrastructure and hardware components powering the revolution. We dig into the staggering profitability of the "Mag Three" hardware leaders (TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix), why China's open-source AI models are quietly powering 80% of US startups at a fraction of the cost, and how the new China AI Tigers ETF (TGRZ) captures the highly volatile "magic layer" of large language models. The conversation also explores the massive geopolitical risks surrounding ASML lithography machines, China's massive energy capacity advantage, and how application-layer giants like Mercado Libre are successfully monetizing AI to accelerate revenue today. Links: China AI Tigers LLM ETF (TGRZ) https://emxetf.com/ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ) https://emqqglobaletfs.com/emqq-fund-materials 📈 Topics Covered • Breaking down the five-layer AI stack: Energy, Chips, Data Centers, Models, and Applications • The "Mag Three" windfall: Why TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix are projected to generate a staggering $965 billion in combined profits • The open-source model advantage: How Chinese AI labs (the "Tigers") offer cheaper, highly competitive models that can be run locally • The startup reliance: Why an estimated 80% of US startups are currently utilizing China's open-source AI models • Geopolitical choke points: The ongoing battle over ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and China's push for semiconductor self-sufficiency • China's massive power advantage: Why having three times the energy capacity of the US, Europe, and India combined is critical for the global AI race • Evaluating the extreme "11 out of 10" volatility and geopolitical risks of investing in the new TGRZ ETF • The Application Layer in action: How emerging market giants like Mercado Libre and Tencent are successfully monetizing digital AI to accelerate revenue today 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
September 9 · 41 min
The Fine Art of Doing Nothing | The Fly and Die IPO with Dave Landry
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by veteran trader, educator, and founder of davelandry.com, Dave Landry. Recorded September 2nd 2026. Dave shares his minimalist approach to the markets, explaining why stripping away complex indicators to focus on pure price action is the ultimate key to trading consistency. The conversation dives deeply into the psychology of patience—highlighting why highly successful professionals often make the worst traders because they are conditioned to always take action. We explore his specific money management rules for scaling out of positions, the mechanics of his TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system designed to completely sidestep devastating bear markets, and why market cycles are compressing due to rampant leverage. They also break down his technical playbook for IPOs, examining the "fly and die" pattern that recently played out in the SpaceX IPO. 📈 Topics Covered • Why adding complex technical indicators is a trap, and how the ultimate enlightenment comes from stripping it all back to a blank chart • The psychology of patience: Why highly proactive, successful professionals (like doctors and lawyers) often make the worst traders • Scaling out for a "free ride": Taking half off, moving stops to break even, and letting the remaining position capture the long-term trend • The TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system: A brilliantly simple moving-average rule to keep you out of devastating bear markets • Trading the SpaceX IPO: Understanding the "fly and die" cycle and why you should never buy a new issue before its fifth day of trading • Time compression in modern markets: Why excessive derivatives and leverage are shortening bull-bear cycles, making short-selling a necessary skill • The dangers of "mental monetization" (e.g., boat shopping while in a winning trade) and how extraneous life influences destroy trading discipline 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
September 7 · 42 min
The AI Shaped Economy | Big Money but Big Problems with Hardika Singh
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Hardika Singh, Economic Strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Recorded September 1st 2026. Hardika discusses her fascinating career transition from a skeptical Wall Street Journal reporter to a data-driven, optimistic strategist working alongside Tom Lee. We dig into why the 10-year Treasury yield acts as the "god" of the economy, the stark realities of the K-shaped economic divide where older demographics thrive while younger workers are crushed by interest rates, and why the recent inflation data might actually be a massive measurement error stemming from recreational software costs. The conversation also explores the psychology behind the "debasement trade" (and why Gold has more staying power than Bitcoin), and the eerie cultural divide between San Francisco's AI obsession and the looming threat of white-collar job destruction. Hardika's research on Fundstrat Direct: https://fundstratdirect.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Hardika's transition from the inherent skepticism of financial journalism (at the WSJ) to the data-driven optimism required of an economic strategist • Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the "god" of the economy, and why crossing the 5% threshold is the ultimate red flag for equity valuations • The harsh realities of the K-shaped economy: How high interest rates disproportionately reward older, asset-heavy demographics while crushing younger consumers • Deconstructing the latest core PCE inflation data: Why a spike in "recreational goods" (driven by a measurement error in computer software CPI) is artificially inflating the numbers • The "Debasement Trade" explained: Why Gold remains a more practical safe-haven asset than Bitcoin as deficit and dollar worries mount • The eerie AI culture shock: Comparing the ubiquitous, billboard-heavy AI euphoria of San Francisco with the looming threat of mass white-collar job destruction • The generational AI divide: Why younger workers face the risk of becoming a "permanent underclass" if they rely on generative AI instead of developing critical thinking skills • Why the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" remains the ultimate, underappreciated treasure trove of anecdotal economic data 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 29 · 39 min
The Founder Factor | Selling Hired CEOs with Lauren Cassidy
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Lauren Cassidy, Founder and CIO of Founder ETFs. Recorded in late August 2026. Lauren details her proprietary "Founder Factor Framework," explaining how her team filters thousands of founder-led companies down to the top 100 based on fundamental quality and valuation metrics. We dig into the stark difference between conservative hired managers and visionary founders, why her research shows that a stock should be sold the moment a founder steps down (using Viking Cruises as a prime example), and how the recent software "SaaSpocalypse" created a massive valuation reset for AI-integrated software companies like Datadog and Palantir. The conversation also explores the danger of the "Metaverse pivot," navigating the SpaceX IPO, and why implementing an 80% systematic/20% discretionary strategy is the ultimate behavioral guardrail for investors. If you enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links! Founders 100 ETF: https://www.founderetfs.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental difference in capital allocation and risk tolerance between a visionary original founder and a conservative hired corporate manager • Filtering the universe: How the "Founder Factor Framework" narrows 1,000 eligible founder-led securities down to an actively managed 100-stock portfolio • Navigating the software "SaaSpocalypse": Why the initial panic that "AI will replace software" created a generational valuation reset for companies like Datadog and Palantir • The absolute sell signal: Why 27 years of data shows you must sell a stock immediately when a founder announces they are stepping down (e.g., Viking Cruises) • Avoiding the "Growth in Disguise" trap: How a disciplined focus on cash flow, moats, and the "Rule of 40" separates true founder alpha from passive Nasdaq 100 exposure • Evaluating the SpaceX IPO: Balancing visionary potential against initial high-valuation hurdles and free cash flow generation • The 80/20 behavioral guardrail: Why keeping a process 80% systematic and 20% discretionary protects investors from emotional panic at market extremes • The Mark Zuckerberg metaverse pivot: Understanding the unique "moral authority" a founder has to drastically reverse course and shift corporate strategy overnight 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 24 · 39 min
The Weight of the Evidence | Tech Mania Tips with Katie Stockton
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies. Recorded in mid-August 2026. Katie shares how she transitioned from a subjective, narrative-driven technical analyst into a highly disciplined, rules-based portfolio manager. We dig into why technical analysis isn't about predicting the future, but rather putting the "weight of the evidence" in your favor to ensure you never stay on the wrong side of a trend. The conversation explores the mechanics behind her Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK)—which equal-weights sectors to provide necessary ballast against massive mega-cap tech concentration—and how she uses multiple timeframes to reconcile lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators. We also discuss the strategy behind her newly launched Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV), applying traditional trend-following rules to the extreme volatility and consolidation phases of crypto. If You've enjoyed today's interview with Katie Stockton, please check out one of these Links! Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF: https://www.fairleadfunds.com/ Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF: https://amplifyetfs.com/bnav/ 📈 Topics Covered • Shifting from prediction to probabilities: Why technical analysis is fundamentally about recognizing when the evidence has changed to keep trends on your side • The hierarchy of technical indicators: Why price and trend must always supersede momentum and breadth in a rules-based system • Managing the "tech-heavy" benchmark problem: Using an equal-weight tactical sector approach (via the TACK ETF) to provide portfolio ballast and capture rotations into Energy or Materials • Reconciling conflicting signals: How to balance lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators across multiple timeframes • Overcoming the fear of "Overbought": Why an overbought RSI reading in a primary uptrend is often the beginning of a massive run rather than a sell signal • The tactical approach to Bitcoin: Applying trend-following technicals to a 24/7 global commodity characterized by prolonged consolidations and explosive volatility • Removing emotional bias: Why adopting a systematic, rules-based process is the ultimate defense against confirmation bias and behavioral "bonehead" mistakes 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 17 · 44 min
Avoid the Momentum Trap | Find True Value with Kevin Abbott
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kevin Abbott, Senior Sector Research Strategist at State Street Investment Management and former Fidelity colleague. Recorded in August 2026. Kevin breaks down why the "AI" label is no longer a monolithic rising tide, emphasizing the critical need to identify the winners and losers as massive hyperscaler spending trickles down into cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware (like semiconductors and memory). We explore why the software sector was "sold off indiscriminately" as business models faced AI disruption, how negative free cash flow isn't always a death knell if long-term analyst estimates hold strong, and the structural advantages of using sector rotation for risk management. The conversation also explores why investors must avoid getting "swept up in the momentum of the moment" by anchoring their decisions with a stable, uncorrelated sector framework. State Street Sector Insights: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/capabilities/equities/sector-investing/select-sector-etfs State Street on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/state-street-investment-management/ 📈 Topics Covered • Differentiating the AI ecosystem: Why "AI" is no longer a monolithic block, and how to spot the actual winners in cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware • Unpacking the hyperscaler spending boom: Why massive CapEx and negative free cash flow (similar to Amazon in 2020) can still yield long-term returns • The indiscriminate software sell-off: How AI disrupted traditional seat-based software models, creating mispriced opportunities for contrarian buyers • Evaluating the "circular financing" risk: Monitoring debt levels and free cash flow in legacy tech names like Oracle • The stability of the sector framework: Why the 11 GICS sectors provide a far more consistent tracking mechanism than rapidly shifting factor models (like Value or Growth) • Strategic sector correlations: How to hedge a tech-heavy index by maintaining core exposure to negatively correlated sectors like Energy, Staples, and Real Estate • The four-legged stool of investing: Balancing Fundamental, Technical, Quantitative, and Behavioral inputs to avoid making the wrong decisions • Generating yield in a low-dividend market: Utilizing premium income sector ETFs (like XLKI) for retirees seeking both market exposure and cash flow 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 14 · 41 min
Baking the Deficit | Investor Recipes for Success with Callie Cox
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Recorded August 11th 2026. Callie shares her data-driven approach to why optimism is a long-term investor's greatest advantage—and how to build a disciplined framework to ensure that optimism doesn't bleed into dangerous complacency. We dig into her brilliant "chocolate chip cookie" metaphor for understanding the U.S. national deficit, the massive shift of capital from public exchanges to private markets, and why an investor's primary job is filtering out financial media noise. The conversation also explores the resilient strength of corporate earnings six years post-COVID, the rising term premium in long-term Treasury yields, and why Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 price targets are nothing more than a marketing tool. If you enjoyed today's interview with Callie (I know I certainly did) be sure to help out by checking these fantastic links! Callie's newsletter: https://www.optimisticallie.com/ Follow Callie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why historical data proves that long-term optimism is a statistical advantage, and how to avoid the trap of market complacency • Evaluating the 2026 earnings season: Sustaining 20% growth rates and navigating the divergence between mega-cap tech and consumer staples like McDonald's • The "Chocolate Chip Cookie" metaphor: How the U.S. national deficit operates like a binge-eating stomachache, slowly creeping into 30-year Treasury yields • Navigating the explosion of private markets: Weighing the illiquidity and high fees of private credit and equity against public market returns • Why 90% of financial headlines don't matter, and how to build an individualized investment framework to filter out the noise • The myth of the year-end price target: Why grasping for S&P 500 forecasts distracts investors from long-term generational wealth building • Transitioning from an emotion-based to an evidence-based process: Using probabilistic exercises to identify portfolio blind spots 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 7 · 34 min
Three Companies Own the World | The Memory Play with Howard Chan
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Howard Chan, CEO of Kurv Investment Management. Recorded August 4th 2026. Howard breaks down why highly specialized memory chips (High Bandwidth Memory) have become the ultimate bottleneck in the AI infrastructure buildout, explaining how hyperscalers are driving up costs across the entire consumer electronics ecosystem. We dig into the massive physical constraints of expanding semiconductor supply, why the global memory market is dominated by a tight three-company oligopoly, and how to gain pure-play exposure to this theme through the new KMEM ETF. The conversation also explores how to rethink the traditional 60/40 portfolio by using institutional-style covered call strategies to harvest volatility premia and generate synthetic income from traditionally non-yielding assets like mega-cap tech and gold. If you enjoyed today's episode with our Guest Howard Chan, check out this link to Kurv ETFs: https://www.kurvinvest.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is critical for reducing AI "hallucinations" and maintaining context in frontier models like ChatGPT and Claude • The physical and capital constraints limiting new chip supply, including $50 billion fab costs and multi-year ASML equipment backlogs • How the pivot to AI memory is crowding out traditional chip manufacturing, driving up prices for consumer electronics like Xbox, Nintendo, and Apple devices • The three-company oligopoly controlling 90% of the world's memory chips: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix • Navigating the limitations of single-country Korean ETFs and the impact of SK Hynix's recent US cross-listing • The dangers of excessive retail leverage in semiconductor momentum trades (and the recent margin call wipeouts in global markets) • Rethinking covered calls: How institutional call spread strategies allow investors to harvest volatility premia (income) without completely capping upside potential • Modernizing the 60/40 portfolio by generating synthetic yield from traditionally non-income producing assets like growth tech and precious metals 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
August 3 · 38 min
Fear, Greed, and Earnings | Charting 2026 with Mary Ellen McGonagle
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mary Ellen McGonagle, President of MEM Investment Research and former colleague of legendary investor William O'Neill. Recorded July 29th 2026. Mary Ellen shares timeless investing wisdom on how fear and greed continue to drive the markets despite today's information overload. The conversation explores how to navigate the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO using historical chart analogs (like Meta/Facebook), the transition into "Phase 2" of the AI trade where actual revenue generation dictates market winners, and the critical importance of a strict sell discipline using daily RSI and moving averages. We also dig into seasonal summer volatility, identifying the "haves and have-nots" in the software sector, and a brilliant strategy for reverse-engineering passive ETF fund flows to uncover hidden individual stock breakouts. If you've enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links! - How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil https://amzn.to/4yK1bZ7 - Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar - MEM Investment Research: https://meminvestmentresearch.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless lessons from William O'Neill: Why fear, greed, and earnings remain the ultimate market drivers (the CANSLIM methodology) • Navigating information overload: How to filter the modern financial "fire hose" down to actionable technical insights • The SpaceX IPO playbook: Why waiting for profitability and a proper base formation beats chasing the initial euphoric spike • Entering Phase 2 of the AI trade: The shift from speculative infrastructure to actualized revenue, usage, and eventual quantum computing • Developing a strict sell discipline: Using daily RSI and 50-day moving averages to lock in profits on parabolic names like Micron • Summer seasonality: Why August brings historical volatility and how the fall often sparks renewed tech leadership (the classic "payphone indicator") • The software sector rotation: Differentiating between AI-enhancing "haves" (cybersecurity) and obsolete "have-nots" • A clever stock-picking hack: Tracking passive ETF fund flows (like the MOO Agribusiness ETF) to identify strong underlying individual holdings • Gauging true market breadth: Why the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index hitting the 30% floor signals a hidden bullish bounce despite index-level deterioration 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 31 · 31 min
Credit, Oil, and AI | Playing Offense with JoAnne Bianco
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with JoAnne Bianco, Senior Investment Strategist at BondBlox. Recorded July 28th 2026. JoAnne shares her deep fixed-income expertise to help investors navigate the current credit environment, detailing why resilient corporate earnings and low default rates continue to support a "sweet spot" in BBB to single-B debt. The conversation explores the hidden risks of circular financing in the AI infrastructure buildout (drawing stark parallels to the early 2000s telecom bubble), the rising accessibility of middle-market private credit for everyday investors, and why elevated yields have transformed bonds from defensive portfolio insurance into a truly offensive asset class. They also discuss redefining the classic 60/40 portfolio and why focusing on income over duration is the ultimate key to managing interest rate volatility. If you enjoyed today's interview with JoAnne, please check out Bondbloxx ETFs! https://bondbloxxetf.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why corporate credit conditions remain structurally strong with low default and distress rates across the BBB to single-B "sweet spot" • Drawing historical parallels between the early 2000s telecom overbuild and today's "circular financing" in AI infrastructure CapEx • Shifting fixed income from defense to offense: How elevated yields and coupon income are driving total returns • Rethinking the traditional 60/40 portfolio in an era of historically high equity P/E ratios and concentrated stock market leadership • The mechanics and benefits of private credit: Accessing middle-market CLOs, floating-rate assets, and lower-volatility yields • Why chasing long-duration US Treasuries poses a massive, underappreciated risk to investors in the current interest rate regime • Implementing a "Core and Explore" bond strategy: Enhancing a standard aggregate base with active bets in BB corporates and short-duration emerging markets • Identifying the ultimate red flags in the credit markets, including debt-financed M&A and concentrated speculative issuance 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 27 · 38 min
The Socioeconomic Switch | Midterm Market '26 with Mish Schneider
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mish Schneider, Director of Trading Education at Market Gauge. Recorded July 23rd 2026. Mish shares her unique "Economic Modern Family" framework for diagnosing the true health of the US economy beyond mega-cap tech leadership. We dig into why small caps ("Grandpa Russell") have shown surprising relative strength compared to overextended tech indices, the resurgence of agricultural commodities as primary inflation barometers, and how geopolitics and El Niño droughts are fueling higher food prices. The conversation also explores the impending sentiment "switch" from "everything is fine" optimism to inflation-driven anxiety, gold's key technical pivot near $4,000/oz, and her new AI-powered short-form educational series, Trades of Our Lives. 📈 Topics Covered • The "Economic Modern Family" framework: Gauging the US domestic economy through "inside sectors" rather than mega-cap tech • Small-cap relative strength: Why "Grandpa Russell" (IWM) holding key technical levels reflects optimism in domestic manufacturing • The semiconductor cycle: Navigating CapEx pushback, data center fatigue, and consolidation in tech leadership • The agricultural commodity breakout: How El Niño droughts, fertilizer costs, and oil prices are driving DBA, wheat, and soybeans higher • Sugar as the ultimate economic barometer: Why watching soft commodities reveals true socioeconomic distress and inflation • The sentiment "switch": Preparing for the market shift from "buy-the-dip" optimism to macro anxiety • Re-allocating to Gold: Why holding the $4,000/oz level marks a key pivot point for safe-haven positioning • Midterm election seasonality: Historical market cycles, geopolitical risks, and navigating Q3/Q4 volatility • Trades of Our Lives: Using short-form AI video and soap-opera dramedy to teach trading literacy to the next generation of investors 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 24 · 44 min
The Quantitative Richter Scale | 2026 Multi-Factor Modeling with Steve Cress
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Steve Cress, Head of Quantitative Research at Seeking Alpha. Recorded July 21st 2026. Steve explains how quantitative methodologies eliminate emotional bias and act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for broader market corrections. We dig into why momentum remains the single strongest historical predictive factor, how his team's disciplined multi-factor model has consistently outperformed dynamic hedge funds like Bridgewater, and the staggering data behind buying top-tier "Strong Buy" stocks during a 15% market drawdown. The conversation also explores the launch of the new Quant Growth and Income product, how macro shifts like interest rates naturally bake themselves into consensus EPS revisions, and why generative AI still hasn't managed to beat a purely data-driven, bottom-up quant approach at stock picking. If you enjoyed our episode today, please make sure to check out our Market Misbehaviour collaboration with Seeking Alpha! These links will give you a unique bonus off just for being a podcast viewer. Seeking Alpha Premium: https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha Alpha Picks: https://marketmisbehavior.com/alphapicks 📈 Topics Covered • How quantitative models act as an early-warning "Richter scale" for sector rotations and market corrections • The historical data on buying the dip: Why buying top quant stocks during a 15% market drawdown creates generational wealth • Breaking down Seeking Alpha's five-factor model: Value, Growth, Profitability, EPS Revisions, and Momentum • Why momentum consistently ranks as the most powerful predictive market factor over the last 250 years • The danger of dynamic factor weighting: Why disciplined, static models often outperform complex hedge fund algorithms • How macro shifts (like rising interest rates or oil prices) are naturally priced into the model via consensus analyst EPS revisions • Assessing AI valuations on a stock-by-stock basis: Why names like Micron and SanDisk outranked Nvidia in the value grade • Launching the "Quant Growth and Income" model to capture non-tech sector rotations (like Financials) • The behavioral advantage of quant investing: Eliminating narrative bias, CEO sales pitches, and emotional panic selling • The intersection of generative AI and quantitative finance (and why AI hasn't beaten the models yet) 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 17 · 36 min
Investing is Not Sports | 2026 Small Cap Inefficiencies with Chris Tessin
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Chris Tessin, Founder and Managing Partner at Acuitas Investments. Recorded July 14th 2026 Chris breaks down why the often-ignored small and microcap space is currently the richest corner of the market for generating alpha. We dig into how the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage creates massive inefficiencies for active managers to exploit, and how a "multi-manager" approach can smooth out volatility by blending complementary investment styles. The conversation also explores the critical differences between the Russell 2000 and S&P 600 benchmarks, how the AI boom is creating "picks and shovels" opportunities in small-cap industrials, and why performance chasing fails because "investing is not sports." If you enjoyed this interview, please check out Chris Tessin's work at: https://acuitasfunds.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why the glaring lack of Wall Street analyst coverage in small and microcaps creates massive alpha opportunities • Unpacking the "multi-manager" approach: How blending complementary managers removes single-manager volatility and smooths the ride • The critical difference between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 (and why the S&P's profitability/quality screen matters) • Understanding the "Russell Rebalance": How the pruning process works as stocks grow out of the index • Finding AI "picks and shovels" plays in the small-cap industrial sector rather than chasing overvalued mega-cap tech stocks • Why investing is not sports: The psychological dangers of bandwagoning and performance chasing in your portfolio • The structural argument for maintaining a permanent, evergreen allocation to small and microcap stocks 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 14 · 42 min
Let the Stock Tell You What to Do | Tune Out The Macro Noise with Tony Gallea
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by market veteran Tony Gallea, CEO of Working Profit and author of the classic investment text Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered. Recorded July 9th 2026. Tony draws on his illustrious 45-year career at Morgan Stanley to help investors tune out overwhelming macro noise and focus on locating structurally undervalued assets. We dig into his grounded take on the AI trade—likening generative AI to an overeager, unpaid intern prone to rookie mistakes—and analyze why the semiconductor boom is a classic "pig through the python" cycle. The conversation also explores Tony's early days updating printed Mansfield charts by hand in the late 1970s, his disciplined process for separating genuine value from dangerous value traps using activist catalysts, and why letting the stock price tell you what to do is vastly superior to getting lost in complex macro forecasting. Working Profit newsletter https://workingprofit.com/ Contrarian Investing https://amzn.to/4peRYn5 Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered https://amzn.to/4yfdZX3 📈 Topics Covered • Tony's realistic perspective on the AI trade: Treating large language models as eager, junior research interns whose work cannot be blindly trusted • The "pig through the python" capital expenditure cycle of data centers and semiconductors, drawing stark psychological parallels to the 2000 dot-com bubble • Embracing a pure stock-picker's mindset: Looking at the market as a fluid system of "source of funds vs. use of funds" to buy uncool, defensive assets at deep discounts • Deconstructing value traps: Combining deep asset calculations (like Target's real estate or Honeywell's sum-of-the-parts setup) with near-term activist investor catalysts • Tuning out the macro noise: Why trying to factor in the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and election-year defense sector gyrations introduces unnecessary uncertainty • Old-school technical analysis: Reflecting on the pre-digital era of the 1970s and 1980s, where practitioners queued at the office door for weekly printed Mansfield chart binders • The critical baseline decision: Forcing yourself to define whether you are operating on a short-term trading lease or a long-term investment horizon 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 9 · 35 min
The Glass-Half-Full Trap? | 2026 Iran Complacency & Inflation with Jeff Klingelhofer
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave sits down with fixed-income portfolio manager and veteran Fed observer Jeff Klingelhofer of Aristotle Pacific Capital. Recorded July 7th 2026. Jeff shares his perspective on the monumental regime shift at the Federal Reserve following Kevin Warsh’s first official FOMC meeting and press conference in June. We pull back the curtain on the Fed's "triple mandate," why the era of aggressive forward guidance and central bank transparency is likely coming to an end, and why the market's "glass-half-full" complacency regarding the conflict with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz introduces significant hidden risk. The conversation also breaks down the structural mechanics of the flattening yield curve, why a rate hike is currently more statistically probable than a cut, and how to intelligently structure the 40% fixed-income sleeve of a balanced portfolio using intermediate-duration Treasuries yielding mid-5% to low-6% returns. 📈 Topics Covered • Navigating the Fed's learning curve: Assessing incoming Chair Kevin Warsh's initial policy moves and the formation of five new task forces • The true definition of the Federal Reserve’s triple mandate: Balancing price stability, maximum employment, and moderate long-term interest rates • The unwinding of Fed transparency: Why a high-inflation environment requires significantly less forward guidance than the zero-rate eras of the past • Analyzing Jerome Powell's historical legacy: Major wins during the global pandemic balanced against being too slow to acknowledge systemic inflation in 2021–2022 • Deconstructing the yield curve: How Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility is driving front-end rates up while narrowing long-term uncertainty • Debunking rate-cut expectations: Why the Fed is likely to remain completely on hold indefinitely unless a full-blown economic recession materializes • Geopolitical complacency: The dangerous disconnect between active Middle East tensions, erratic oil prices, and baseline market expectations • The structural strength of the US Dollar: Evaluating interest rate differentials and the rising cost of servicing US national debt (now consuming 20% of revenue) • Redefining the 60/40 portfolio: Positioning into high-quality, intermediate-duration (3-to-7 year) credit as a true defensive asset ballast 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 5 · 46 min
Entry Points Are Absolute | 2026 Minimalist Charting with Carter Worth
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by legendary technical analyst Carter Worth, Founder and CEO of Worth Charting and CNBC's "Chart Master." Recorded July 1st 2026. Carter shares his timeless, price-and-volume-centric approach to market analysis, stripping away the noise of macro headlines and complex oscillators. We dig into why context is the ultimate lens for understanding price action, the enduring value of hand-drawing charts to truly feel the rhythm of institutional money flow, and how the current market's severe tech bifurcation signals a classic "shooting the generals last" environment. The conversation also explores Carter's core risk management principle that "entry points are absolute, exit points are subjective," alongside the exact data-science rules driving his newly launched Worth Charting Options Income ETF (WRTH). If you enjoyed this episode's insights and would like to dive deeper, please check out Carter's website at: https://www.worthcharting.com/ Also check out the Worth Charting Options ETF!: https://worthchartinggroup.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental philosophy of price action: Why the study of price and volume ultimately trumps corporate fundamentals • Contextualizing the 2026 market sequence: Interpreting June’s sloppy, sideways consolidation as a healthy, normative pause following May’s aggressive post-conflict recovery • Minimalist technical tools: Eliminating analytical clutter by focusing strictly on the high, low, close, volume, relative strength, and the 150-day moving average • Lessons from mentor Vincent Boening: Embracing the "lost art" of updating graph paper charts by hand to accurately gauge the physical behavior of capital • The fragility of tech bifurcation: Navigating a market where investors cluster into a shrinking handful of overextended semiconductor generals while abandoning entire software spaces • The contrarian case for energy: Why severe relative underperformance has left defensive giants like Exxon and Chevron "so bad they're good" contrarian buys • Managing the downside: Why there is nothing wrong with being wrong, but why sticking with a high-volume gap-down is a catastrophic error • Inside the WRTH ETF: Utilizing cash-secured, out-of-the-money strangles on large-caps specifically after a 10% earnings gap to capture immediate volatility crush and time decay 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.
July 4 · 37 min
Separation of Money and State | 2026 Decentralized Finance with Mike Willis
In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mike Willis, CEO of Cyber Hornet ETFs. Recorded June 30th 2026. Mike shares his journey from spending 30 years in traditional finance (TradFi) to fully embracing decentralized finance (DeFi) after diving into the immutable math behind Bitcoin. We dig into the stark contrast between unchecked fiat currency debasement and Bitcoin's absolute scarcity, why the massive energy expenditure used for mining is actually a foundational security feature, and the structural advantages of a 75/25 (S&P 500/Bitcoin) portfolio allocation. The conversation also explores how Cyber Hornet's monthly rebalancing mechanism acts as a vital guardrail to protect clients from devastating "crypto winters" while still allowing them to capture outsized upside. 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 🎯 Upgrade your market awareness with Seeking Alpha Premium https://marketmisbehavior.com/seekingalpha 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior 📈 Topics Covered • Mike's transition from Wall Street traditional finance to embracing Bitcoin and the DeFi ecosystem • The contrast between the Federal Reserve's unchecked monetary printing and Bitcoin's hard-capped 21-million coin scarcity • Why the significant electricity cost required for Bitcoin mining (roughly $53,000 per coin) serves as a critical network feature, not a bug • The psychology behind Cyber Hornet's BBB ETF: Combining 75% S&P 500 with 25% Bitcoin to find the "sleep-at-night" volatility sweet spot • Why a strict monthly rebalancing strategy is the ultimate key to surviving 50-70% drawdowns during "crypto winters" • Why pure technical analysis works exceptionally well for analyzing Bitcoin due to its lack of corporate management or product cycles • How decentralized, borderless networks offer frictionless financial sovereignty to the two billion unbanked people worldwide 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Showing 1–20 of 28 episodes