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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

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28 episodes
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English

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#379
Friday · 52 min
Ep. 379: Paul Cavey on East Asia's AI Tech Boom, Semiconductor Exports, and Macro Dynamics
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast, we discuss: AI Hardware Demand & Regional Supply Chains Taiwan's Real GDP Expansion vs. Korea's Terms-of-Trade Shock Taiwan's Negative Real Interest Rates & Inflation Outlook East Asia's Resilience to Global Energy Shocks Bank of Korea Policy Hikes & Won FX Dynamics Japan's Fiscal Revenue Boom & Manufacturing Catch-Up BOJ Policy Path, Persistent Inflation, and Yen Weakness China's Property Slump & Incremental Credit Easing China's Auto Export Surge & Sovereign Tech Stack Sovereign Balance Sheet Divergence & CGB Market Dynamics
#378
October 2 · 49 min
Ep. 378: Apurv Jain on Alternative Data, Real-Time Macro Nowcasting, and AI's Economic Role
Apurv Jain is the Founder and CEO of MacroX, a San Francisco-based startup building a real-time measurement layer for the global economy using alternative data. Before MacroX, Apurv built machine-learning investing systems at Microsoft, traded FX derivatives at Deutsche Bank, and worked at Bridgewater Associates. His research experience spans Microsoft Research and Harvard Business School, with publications and invited talks across academia, central banks, and global forums including Davos and the World AI Summit. He holds degrees from Georgia Tech and the University of Chicago and is passionate about mixed martial arts. In this podcast, we discuss: Official Data Lags & Declining Survey Response Rates 1,000+ Alternative Data Pipelines for Macro State Mapping Real-Time Worker Bargaining Power vs. Lagged Wage Metrics Multimodal AI: CNNs, BERT, and Targeted LLM Workflows Nowcasting Lead: Gaining 2–3 Months Ahead of Official Prints Next-Generation Nowcasting vs. Atlanta Fed GDP Models Why the 2023 Yield Curve Recession Signal Failed Current US Economic State & The "K-Shaped" Consumer Portfolio Integration for Fundamental & Systematic Investors
#377
September 25 · 48 min
Ep. 377: Jay Pelosky on the Tripolar World, the Spending Super Cycle, and the Global Earnings Boom
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss: The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle US Valuation "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI
S371 · E376
September 18 · 57 min
Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China's Swing Power
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push
#375
September 11 · 20 min
Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG
#374
September 4 · 33 min
Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise
#373
August 28 · 50 min
Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil
#372
August 21 · 55 min
Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality
Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation. In this podcast, we discuss: The Shift to National Market Liberalism The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China The Rise of "Homoplutia" The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology India's Alternative Development Model Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart" Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety
#371
August 14 · 46 min
Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI's Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction
Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits
#370
August 7 · 49 min
Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing
Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society. The Collapse of Neoliberalism The "Market Humanism" Synthesis From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens Markets as Evolutionary Engines Value as Problem-Solving The Structural Reality of Inequality "Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth The State as a Market Shaper Macrocosm: Modelling the Economy with AI Human Skills in the Age of AI
#369
July 31 · 44 min
Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. The Localisation Thesis Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble" The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding) Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts The Iran War and American Exceptionalism The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error The Rise of Kevin Warsh The Brexit Reality Check Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"
#368
July 24 · 40 min
Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation
Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss: Clarida's Macro Origin Story Global Economic Resilience The AI Capex Boom Labour's Declining Income Share The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine Revisiting Forward Guidance AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star The Era of Global Fragmentation Optimism for the Next Generation You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website.
#367
July 17 · 45 min
Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market
Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking Nationalising Money via the Civil War The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market Stablecoins as "Schmanks" (Unregulated Banks) Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage
#366
July 10 · 44 min
Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan's Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys, including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief? Wage Growth Divergence The Working Hours Trap Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability The Enigma of Yen Weakness Work-from-Home and Birth Rates Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump" US vs. Japan: Labour Participation Trends
#365
July 3 · 55 min
Ep. 365: Stefan Jansen on Agentic AI, ML Workflows, and the Evolution of Machine Learning for Trading
Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: Defining AI as a Moving Target The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey Agentic AI and Unstructured Data RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate The "Alpha Factory" Workflow Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction The Critical Role of Human Context Advice for the AI-Native Job Market
#364
June 26 · 1 hr 5 min
Ep. 364: William Beach on the US Fiscal Precipice, Tax Reform, and AI's Impact on Labour
William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics
#363
June 19 · 52 min
Ep. 363: Martin Wolf on AI's Colossal Impact, Central Banking Risks, and the Democratic Recession
Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 'for services to financial journalism'. In this podcast, we discuss: AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology Market Complacency in the Middle East Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit From "Democratic Recession" to Depression The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth Advice for the Next Generation
#362
June 12 · 35 min
Ep. 362: Dan Rasmussen on Private Equity's Stranded Assets, Private Credit, and the AI Bubble
Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, an investment firm with over $1 billion in assets under management across multiple asset classes. He is the author of The Humble Investor (2025) and American Uprising (2011). Prior to founding Verdad, he worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. In this podcast, we discuss: Investing as Meta-analysis The Evolution of Private Equity Stranded Software Assets The Private Credit Mirage The "Adjusted EBITDA" Trap Small-Cap Growth Dangers The AI Capex Cycle AI Productivity Mindset
#361
June 5 · 31 min
Ep. 361: Neil Dutta on the US Economic Outlook, Fed Policy Stasis, and AI's Role in Consumer Wealth
Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them. Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss: Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story" The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis The Real Income Squeeze AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance" The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance Productivity Boom or Demand Story? AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting The 2027 Fiscal Headwind Substack vs. Institutional Research
#360
May 29 · 39 min
Ep. 360: Dirk Willer on Trading Global Macro Regimes, the End of QE, and Navigating Equity Bubbles
Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss: Unlearning the QE Reflex Trading "Close to the Fire" The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags The "GMO" Bubble Methodology Credit as the Equity Canary The Four-Indicator Dollar Model Fading Geopolitical Shocks The Role of Human Judgment in AI

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