Energy Unplugged by Aurora

The Energy Transition’s Next Big Bottleneck EP 312 - Video Edition

This week on Energy Unplugged, Richard Howard, Global Research Director at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Sara Vaughan, Chair of Elexon. For years, the energy transition was largely a race to build renewables. Now, a different challenge is emerging: how do you run a power system increasingly shaped by millions of smaller, flexible assets? EVs, heat pumps, batteries and smart meters are creating enormous flexibility across the electricity system. Yet much of that potential remains difficult to see, value and coordinate. Without the right data and market rules, flexibility risks becoming a bottleneck rather than a solution. At the heart of the discussion is a bigger question about how Britain's future power system should work. Does the system operator need ever greater visibility and control, or can better price signals allow consumers, suppliers and distributed assets to do more of the work themselves? Britain already has much of the technology it needs. The next challenge is building a market capable of making millions of individual assets behave like one flexible system. Main topics include: Why the energy transition could eventually grind to a halt without more flexibility How half-hourly settlement could transform the role of consumers in the power market Does the system operator need to see everything, or can markets do more of the work? Could unlocking flexibility save billions in future system costs?

The Energy Transition’s Next Big Bottleneck EP 312

This week on Energy Unplugged, Richard Howard, Global Research Director at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Sara Vaughan, Chair of Elexon. For years, the energy transition was largely a race to build renewables. Now, a different challenge is emerging: how do you run a power system increasingly shaped by millions of smaller, flexible assets? EVs, heat pumps, batteries and smart meters are creating enormous flexibility across the electricity system. Yet much of that potential remains difficult to see, value and coordinate. Without the right data and market rules, flexibility risks becoming a bottleneck rather than a solution. At the heart of the discussion is a bigger question about how Britain's future power system should work. Does the system operator need ever greater visibility and control, or can better price signals allow consumers, suppliers and distributed assets to do more of the work themselves? Britain already has much of the technology it needs. The next challenge is building a market capable of making millions of individual assets behave like one flexible system. Main topics include: Why the energy transition could eventually grind to a halt without more flexibility How half-hourly settlement could transform the role of consumers in the power market Does the system operator need to see everything, or can markets do more of the work? Could unlocking flexibility save billions in future system costs?

Have Batteries Become Victims of Their Own Success? EP.311

This week on Energy Unplugged, Emma Woodward, Principal in Aurora Energy Research’s GB & Ireland Advisory team and GB Flexible Energy Lead, is joined by Peter Kavanagh, CEO of Harmony Energy. Britain has built one of Europe’s most mature battery markets, largely without subsidy. But success brings its own complications. As batteries scale, the debate is shifting from whether the technology works to whether the market around it does. Merchant revenues remain volatile; projects can spend years waiting for grid and planning approvals, and batteries are still not always fully utilised when they could provide a cheaper alternative for balancing the system. At the same time, support for long-duration storage raises a more uncomfortable question: could policy designed to accelerate storage end up distorting a market that has already proved it can compete? For Peter, the message is increasingly simple: batteries have demonstrated their value. Now the challenge is removing the barriers that stop them delivering more of it. Main topics include: Why merchant risk may still offer greater upside than contracted certainty How grid queues and planning delays are holding back battery deployment Why batteries are still being overlooked in the balancing mechanism Could subsidised long-duration storage undermine the existing market? What Europe can learn from Britain’s battery experience

Have Batteries Become Victims of Their Own Success? EP.311

This week on Energy Unplugged, Emma Woodward, Principal in Aurora Energy Research’s GB & Ireland Advisory team and GB Flexible Energy Lead, is joined by Peter Kavanagh, CEO of Harmony Energy. Britain has built one of Europe’s most mature battery markets, largely without subsidy. But success brings its own complications. As batteries scale, the debate is shifting from whether the technology works to whether the market around it does. Merchant revenues remain volatile; projects can spend years waiting for grid and planning approvals, and batteries are still not always fully utilised when they could provide a cheaper alternative for balancing the system. At the same time, support for long-duration storage raises a more uncomfortable question: could policy designed to accelerate storage end up distorting a market that has already proved it can compete? For Peter, the message is increasingly simple: batteries have demonstrated their value. Now the challenge is removing the barriers that stop them delivering more of it. Main topics include: Why merchant risk may still offer greater upside than contracted certainty How grid queues and planning delays are holding back battery deployment Why batteries are still being overlooked in the balancing mechanism Could subsidised long-duration storage undermine the existing market? What Europe can learn from Britain’s battery experience

Peru's Affordable Energy Problem EP. 310

This week on Energy Unplugged, Jose Munoz, Market Lead for Spanish-speaking South America at Aurora Energy Research, and Melissa Carreño, Product Manager for Peru and Colombia, are joined by César Butrón, Chairman of the Board of COES, Peru's national system operator. For two decades, Peru has benefited from some of the cheapest electricity in Latin America, supported by abundant low-cost gas from Camisea. But the conditions that shaped that success are beginning to change. Demand is rising, cheap gas can no longer be taken for granted, and investors are struggling to finance new renewable projects despite strong resources and significant interest in the market. At the same time, policymakers face difficult decisions around gas infrastructure, battery storage, transmission expansion, and system reliability. Drawing on decades of experience at the centre of Peru's power sector, César explains why the country is not facing a shortage of electricity, but a potential shortage of affordable electricity, and what that means for Peru's next phase of development. Peru's challenge is no longer keeping the lights on. It's deciding what will power them next. Main topics include: Is Peru heading towards a shortage of cheap energy? Why renewable projects are struggling to secure financing The future of Camisea gas and Peru's energy security What batteries, transmission and market reform will need to deliver

Peru's Affordable Energy Problem Ep. 310

This week on Energy Unplugged, Jose Munoz, Market Lead for Spanish-speaking South America at Aurora Energy Research, and Melissa Carreño, Product Manager for Peru and Colombia, are joined by César Butrón, Chairman of the Board of COES, Peru's national system operator. For two decades, Peru has benefited from some of the cheapest electricity in Latin America, supported by abundant low-cost gas from Camisea. But the conditions that shaped that success are beginning to change. Demand is rising, cheap gas can no longer be taken for granted, and investors are struggling to finance new renewable projects despite strong resources and significant interest in the market. At the same time, policymakers face difficult decisions around gas infrastructure, battery storage, transmission expansion, and system reliability. Drawing on decades of experience at the centre of Peru's power sector, César explains why the country is not facing a shortage of electricity, but a potential shortage of affordable electricity, and what that means for Peru's next phase of development. Peru's challenge is no longer keeping the lights on. It's deciding what will power them next. Main topics include: Is Peru heading towards a shortage of cheap energy? Why renewable projects are struggling to secure financing The future of Camisea gas and Peru's energy security What batteries, transmission and market reform will need to deliver

Inside the European Data Centre industry: What does it take to deliver projects EP. 309

This week on Energy Unplugged, Richard Howard, Global Research Director at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Michael Tobin CBE, one of the pioneers of the European data centre industry, former CEO of TelecityGroup and Non-Executive Director at Five Nines Group, alongside Sebastian Murphy, Director of Development & Innovation at Five Nines Group, to explore what it really takes to deliver data centre projects in Europe. Driven by AI, cloud computing and digitalisation, data centres are becoming one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand worldwide. But as power constraints, permitting challenges and supply chain bottlenecks intensify, can Europe remain competitive in the global race to build the infrastructure that will underpin the next generation of AI? Michael and Sebastian pull back the curtain on the realities of delivering data centres at scale, from securing scarce grid connections and navigating planning hurdles to managing supply chains, construction risk and ever-tightening sustainability requirements. They discuss why Europe's established data centre hubs are running out of room to grow, how regional markets are emerging as the next frontier for investment, and why access to power has become the industry's defining challenge. The episode also examines the shift towards AI inference facilities, the rise of behind-the-meter power solutions, and whether Europe has the regulatory framework needed to compete with the US and China. Along the way, the guests share firsthand insights from the front line of data centre development and make the case for what needs to change if Europe is to remain a serious player in the global AI race. You will learn: Why power has become the industry's most valuable commodity. How AI is reshaping Europe's data centre map. What's really holding back data centre development. What Europe needs to do to stay in the global AI race.

What Happens When Certainty Disappears? EP 308

This week on Energy Unplugged, Anise Ganbold, Head of Research - Global Energy Markets & Hydrogen at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Philip Norman, Partner and Head of International Arbitration at CMS. Long-term energy contracts are designed to create certainty. They underpin billion-dollar investments, support critical infrastructure, and help keep energy flowing across borders. But what happens when the world changes? From pandemics and sanctions to wars, shipping disruptions and political intervention, recent years have tested assumptions many contracts were built upon. As markets become more volatile, questions around risk allocation, force majeure and contractual flexibility are becoming increasingly important. Drawing on decades of experience in international energy disputes, Philip explains why contract terms often matter more than price, how legal systems approach disruption differently, and what happens when unforeseen events put agreements under pressure. The world's energy systems depend on long-term contracts. The challenge is making sure they can survive in a world that no longer feels predictable. Main topics include: Who really carries the risk when energy markets are disrupted? Why risk allocation can matter more than price How force majeure works in practice Whether the next generation of energy contracts will be more flexible

What Happens When Certainty Disappears? EP 308 - Video Edition

This week on Energy Unplugged, Anise Ganbold, Head of Research - Global Energy Markets & Hydrogen at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Philip Norman, Partner and Head of International Arbitration at CMS. Long-term energy contracts are designed to create certainty. They underpin billion-dollar investments, support critical infrastructure, and help keep energy flowing across borders. But what happens when the world changes? From pandemics and sanctions to wars, shipping disruptions and political intervention, recent years have tested assumptions many contracts were built upon. As markets become more volatile, questions around risk allocation, force majeure and contractual flexibility are becoming increasingly important. Drawing on decades of experience in international energy disputes, Philip explains why contract terms often matter more than price, how legal systems approach disruption differently, and what happens when unforeseen events put agreements under pressure. The world's energy systems depend on long-term contracts. The challenge is making sure they can survive in a world that no longer feels predictable. Main topics include: Who really carries the risk when energy markets are disrupted? Why risk allocation can matter more than price How force majeure works in practice Whether the next generation of energy contracts will be more flexible

Brazil’s Next Energy Challenge EP. 307

This week on Energy Unplugged, Ana Barillas, Managing Director for Iberia and Latin America at Aurora Energy Research, and Rodrigo Borges, Market Lead for Brazil, are joined by João Brito Martins, CEO of EDP Brazil. Brazil's energy transition has been one of the world's great success stories. Renewable capacity has expanded rapidly, solar deployment has surged, and the country has established itself as one of the largest and most dynamic power markets globally. But success has brought a new set of challenges. As curtailment rises, grid constraints intensify and investment in new renewable capacity slows; the conversation is shifting from how to build renewables to how to integrate them. At the same time, market liberalization is gathering pace; battery storage is preparing its first major auction, and policymakers face growing pressure to deliver the right signals for the next wave of investment. João reflects on how Brazil's power sector has evolved, why networks are becoming increasingly important, and what must change to unlock the country's next investment cycle. Brazil has shown it can deliver the energy transition at scale. The next challenge is creating a power system that can keep up. Main topics include: Has Brazil become a victim of its own renewable success? Why curtailment, grid constraints and weak price signals are holding back investment Can market liberalization unlock a new era of customer-driven power procurement? What needs to happen for batteries and flexibility to scale in Brazil?

Brazil’s Next Energy Challenge EP. 307 - Video Edition

This week on Energy Unplugged, Ana Barillas, Managing Director for Iberia and Latin America at Aurora Energy Research, and Rodrigo Borges, Market Lead for Brazil, are joined by João Brito Martins, CEO of EDP Brazil. Brazil's energy transition has been one of the world's great success stories. Renewable capacity has expanded rapidly, solar deployment has surged, and the country has established itself as one of the largest and most dynamic power markets globally. But success has brought a new set of challenges. As curtailment rises, grid constraints intensify and investment in new renewable capacity slows; the conversation is shifting from how to build renewables to how to integrate them. At the same time, market liberalization is gathering pace; battery storage is preparing its first major auction, and policymakers face growing pressure to deliver the right signals for the next wave of investment. João reflects on how Brazil's power sector has evolved, why networks are becoming increasingly important, and what must change to unlock the country's next investment cycle. Brazil has shown it can deliver the energy transition at scale. The next challenge is creating a power system that can keep up. Main topics include: Has Brazil become a victim of its own renewable success? Why curtailment, grid constraints and weak price signals are holding back investment Can market liberalization unlock a new era of customer-driven power procurement? What needs to happen for batteries and flexibility to scale in Brazil?

Can Japan Build a Battery Market? EP. 306

This week on Energy Unplugged, Hugo Batten, Managing Director of Aurora APAC, and Arthur Yanagisawa, Head of Advisory for Japan at Aurora Energy Research, are joined by Virginie Sandilya, Chief Investment Officer of Shizen International and Head of Project Finance for the Shizen Energy Group. Japan knows it needs batteries. The question is whether the market can build them fast enough. Investor appetite remains strong, but the industry's biggest challenges are no longer technological. Grid congestion, rising interest rates, revenue uncertainty and increasingly competitive access to transmission are creating new hurdles for developers trying to reach financial close. Drawing on experience from both the lending and development sides of the industry, Virginie shares her perspective on what separates successful projects from the rest, why bankability remains a central challenge, and how developers are navigating a rapidly evolving market. In many ways, Japan's battery market has reached an inflection point. Investor appetite is there. The technology is proven. The question is whether the market structure can keep up. Main topics include: Why securing a grid connection may matter more than securing financing Can merchant battery projects attract debt at scale? The battle between contracted certainty and merchant upside Could data centres unlock the next phase of battery deployment?

What Happens When a Market Moves Fast? EP. 305

This week on Energy Unplugged, Laura Picardo, Aurora Energy Research's Advisory Lead for Mexico, is joined by William Judd, Manager – Origination & Execution, LatAm at Cubico Sustainable Investments. After years of limited renewable deployment, Mexico's energy transition is moving again. New investment mechanisms, major regulatory reforms, and ambitious deployment targets are creating fresh momentum in one of Latin America's most important power markets. But this isn't simply a return to business as usual. Mexico is attempting to accelerate renewable deployment while integrating battery storage from the outset and building new partnerships between private developers and the state-owned utility, CFE. Drawing on Cubico's decade-long experience in the country, William discusses the market's resurgence, the opportunities created by the new mixed-investment model, and the realities of delivering large-scale renewable and storage projects on compressed timelines. The conversation also explores what Mexico can learn from markets like Chile and Uruguay, and whether the country can combine political ambition, private capital and strategic planning to deliver its next wave of clean energy growth. Main topics include: Why Mexico's renewable sector is entering a new phase of growth The rise of long-term partnerships between CFE and private developers How battery storage is being integrated into renewable projects from day one The key opportunities and challenges facing Mexico's next energy boom

What Happens When a Market Moves Fast? EP. 305 - Video Edition

This week on Energy Unplugged, Laura Picardo, Aurora Energy Research's Advisory Lead for Mexico, is joined by William Judd, Manager – Origination & Execution, LatAm at Cubico Sustainable Investments. After years of limited renewable deployment, Mexico's energy transition is moving again. New investment mechanisms, major regulatory reforms, and ambitious deployment targets are creating fresh momentum in one of Latin America's most important power markets. But this isn't simply a return to business as usual. Mexico is attempting to accelerate renewable deployment while integrating battery storage from the outset and building new partnerships between private developers and the state-owned utility, CFE. Drawing on Cubico's decade-long experience in the country, William discusses the market's resurgence, the opportunities created by the new mixed-investment model, and the realities of delivering large-scale renewable and storage projects on compressed timelines. The conversation also explores what Mexico can learn from markets like Chile and Uruguay, and whether the country can combine political ambition, private capital and strategic planning to deliver its next wave of clean energy growth. Main topics include: Why Mexico's renewable sector is entering a new phase of growth The rise of long-term partnerships between CFE and private developers How battery storage is being integrated into renewable projects from day one The key opportunities and challenges facing Mexico's next energy boom

From Power Crisis to Power Market EP.304

This week on Energy Unplugged, Caroline Still, Aurora Energy Research's Market Lead for South Africa, is joined by Jan Fourie, CEO of Mulilo. Just a few years ago, South Africa's priority was clear: end load shedding. Today, the challenge looks very different. As private investment accelerates and the South African Wholesale Electricity Market (SAWEM) begins to take shape, the industry is shifting its focus from simply adding megawatts to building a power system that can deliver reliable, affordable electricity over the long term. Drawing on a front-row seat to South Africa's rapidly evolving power sector, Jan discusses why transmission has emerged as the industry's biggest bottleneck, how batteries are changing the economics of renewable energy, and why flexibility could become one of the most valuable commodities in the country's future electricity market. The conversation also explores the role of patient capital, the evolution of power procurement, and whether South Africa has the opportunity to do something few countries have managed successfully: build a competitive electricity market while simultaneously transforming its generation fleet. Main topics include: South Africa's transition from energy crisis to market reform Why transmission, storage and flexibility are becoming critical to the next phase of growth The role of batteries, curtailment and market signals in a changing power system How SAWEM could reshape investment, competition and electricity pricing in South Africa

China's Renewable Boom Enters Its Hardest Phase EP. 303

This week on Energy Unplugged, Lara Panjkov, Aurora Energy Research's Head of Research for APAC, and Zelin Chen, Aurora's Market and Research Lead for China, are joined by Anders Hove, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. For years, the story of China's energy transition was one of scale: more solar, more wind, more batteries, more transmission. Now the challenge is changing. As renewable generation surges and power demand continues to grow, China's focus is shifting from building clean energy capacity to integrating it. That transition is exposing new questions around market design, system flexibility, provincial decision-making and the role of coal, gas and storage in an increasingly renewable power system. Drawing on more than a decade of experience studying China's energy sector, Anders reflects on China's rise from low-cost manufacturer to global clean energy leader and explains why the country's power sector has entered what he describes as its "messy midgame". The conversation explores the latest Five-Year Plan, the evolution of renewable support mechanisms, the growing importance of flexibility, and whether China's biggest challenge is no longer building infrastructure, but using it more effectively. Main topics include: China's rise from clean energy follower to clean energy leader Why integrating renewables is becoming harder than building them The push and pull between central planning, provincial governments and market reform Whether flexibility, not infrastructure, will determine the success of China's energy transition

Why Higher Interest Rates May Be Good for Clean Energy EP. 302

This week on Energy Unplugged, Oliver Kerr, Aurora Energy Research's Managing Director for North America, is joined by Declan Flanagan, CEO of Blue Star Energy Capital. For much of the past decade, renewable energy development was shaped by abundant capital, falling technology costs, and ever-growing pipelines. Today, the industry is operating in a very different environment. Demand growth is back, driven in part by AI and data centres. Project costs are rising. Capital is more expensive. And developers are being forced to rethink some of the assumptions that defined the industry's last growth cycle. Drawing on more than two decades of experience building renewable energy businesses, Declan shares his perspective on where capital is flowing, why the US remains the standout market for renewables, and how project development is evolving as the sector matures. The conversation also explores the realities of greenfield development, the growing importance of execution and transmission infrastructure, and why Declan believes higher interest rates and a gradual move away from tax credits could ultimately be healthy for the energy transition. Main topics include: How renewable energy development has evolved over the past 20 years AI, data centres and the return of electricity demand growth Capital discipline, rising project costs and changing market dynamics Why execution may become the industry's greatest competitive advantage

We Built the Renewables. So Why Are Bills Still Rising? EP. 301 - Video Edition

This week on Energy Unplugged, Mark Hedin, Head of Research for Western Europe & Africa at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Rachel Fletcher, Director of Regulation & Economics at Octopus Energy, to tackle a question at the heart of Britain’s energy debate: why are electricity bills so high, and what would it take to bring them down? As the UK pushes ahead with electrification, Rachel argues that the challenge is no longer just about building more renewable generation. Instead, the conversation explores whether the current market design, network investment strategy, and approach to flexibility are fit for a rapidly changing power system. The discussion examines the drivers behind rising bills, the role of flexibility and electric vehicles in lowering system costs, and the policy choices that could shape the next phase of the energy transition. Rachel also shares her views on locational pricing, the future role of gas, and the reforms she believes would make the biggest difference for consumers. Main topics include: What is really driving high electricity bills in Great Britain How flexibility, batteries and EVs could reshape the power system The debate over grid expansion, market design and locational pricing The reforms needed to support electrification and lower costs

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We Built the Renewables. So Why Are Bills Still Rising? EP. 301

This week on Energy Unplugged, Marc Hedin, Head of Research for Western Europe & Africa at Aurora Energy Research, is joined by Rachel Fletcher, Director of Regulation & Economics at Octopus Energy, to tackle a question at the heart of Britain’s energy debate: why are electricity bills so high, and what would it take to bring them down? As the UK pushes ahead with electrification, Rachel argues that the challenge is no longer just about building more renewable generation. Instead, the conversation explores whether the current market design, network investment strategy, and approach to flexibility are fit for a rapidly changing power system. The discussion examines the drivers behind rising bills, the role of flexibility and electric vehicles in lowering system costs, and the policy choices that could shape the next phase of the energy transition. Rachel also shares her views on locational pricing, the future role of gas, and the reforms she believes would make the biggest difference for consumers. Main topics include: What is really driving high electricity bills in Great Britain How flexibility, batteries and EVs could reshape the power system The debate over grid expansion, market design and locational pricing The reforms needed to support electrification and lower costs

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When Success Becomes the Challenge EP. 300

As we celebrate a milestone 300 episodes of Energy Unplugged, Richard Howard, Aurora Energy Research's Global Research Director, is joined by Aurora's regional Managing Directors from around the world to explore a defining question for the energy transition: what happens after the first phase of success? For much of the past decade, the challenge was clear: deploy clean technologies at scale. Wind and solar needed to become cheaper. Investment needed to accelerate. Policymakers needed to create the right incentives. While significant work remains, that first phase has delivered enormous progress. The next phase may prove more difficult. The challenge is no longer simply building clean generation but adapting the systems around it. As renewable capacity continues to grow, grids are becoming congested, curtailment is rising, market designs are being tested, and new sources of demand are emerging. The energy transition's greatest challenge today may be managing the consequences of its own success. Drawing on perspectives from Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Africa, this special episode examines whether power systems, markets and policymakers can keep pace with the technologies driving the transition forward. Taken together, these conversations suggest that the energy transition is entering a more complex and consequential phase. The first challenge was deploying clean technologies at scale. The next is integrating them into power systems that were never designed for a high-renewable world. From grid expansion and market reform to flexibility, storage and AI-driven demand, the coming decade will be defined not by whether the transition can grow, but by whether the system around it can keep up. You will learn about: How the energy transition is progressing across different regions of the world. Why renewable success is increasingly creating challenges around grids, markets, and investment. How batteries, flexibility, and electrification are reshaping power systems. What different regions can learn from one another's experiences. What needs to happen between now and 2035 to keep the transition on track.