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C.O.B. Tuesday

Veriten

C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten.

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S2 · E346
Wednesday · 1 hr 5 min
“Gas Storage Is Back In Style” – Dave Marchese, Caliche
Today we had the exciting opportunity to tour Caliche’s Golden Triangle Storage facility in Beaumont, Texas. Caliche is an acquisition and development company focused on the underground storage of natural gas and industrial gases, including hydrogen and helium, as well as carbon sequestration. Following the tour, we sat down with Dave Marchese, CEO of Caliche. Dave has over 25 years of experience in the development, construction, and operation of energy assets, including underground hydrocarbon storage, utility-scale power plants, and petrochemical facilities. We were thrilled to hear Dave’s perspective on the natural gas storage business, the growing importance of storage to LNG and power markets, and the infrastructure needed to support rising U.S. natural gas demand. In our conversation, Dave walks us through the natural gas storage business and why storage is becoming increasingly important as U.S. natural gas demand grows and the energy system becomes more complex. We discuss Caliche’s platform, including Golden Triangle Storage in Beaumont and Central Valley Gas Storage in California, and spend time on the fundamentals of salt cavern and reservoir storage, how storage facilities are developed, and the significant permitting, capital, and contracting requirements involved. Dave shares the history of the storage market, including the industry’s last major buildout, the impact of the shale revolution, and why relatively little new storage capacity has been developed over the past 15 years. We explore what is driving renewed demand for storage today. Dave discusses the increasingly important role storage plays for LNG terminals, including managing large volumes of gas during outages and normal operating fluctuations, as well as its role in supporting gas-fired power generation and balancing an electric grid with growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation. We touch on AI and data center-driven power demand, the potential implications for natural gas infrastructure, and why firm transportation and storage could become increasingly important as that load develops. We also discuss the broader infrastructure picture, including storage needs in West Texas and the Northeast, constraints on moving gas between Texas and Louisiana, permitting and regulatory considerations, and Caliche’s plans to significantly expand both of its existing facilities. Dave shares his perspective on the growing competition for skilled workers across the industrial economy, the importance of investing in and training the next generation of energy professionals, and more. It was a fascinating discussion and a great opportunity to better understand a critical but often underappreciated piece of the natural gas and broader energy infrastructure system. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting that market conditions were considerably calmer this week after several consecutive weeks of elevated volatility. In fixed income markets, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back this week to approximately 4.95% following last week's move above the psychologically important 5.0% threshold. Turning to oil markets, WTI crude oil prices have plunged this week to approximately $95 per barrel, down from roughly $103 per barrel at last week's close. The sharp decline was driven primarily by reports that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline system, which has a capacity of roughly 5 million barrels per day, could soon resume operations. Turning to equities, he highlighted that a combination of lower interest rates, declining oil prices, and easing concerns surrounding AI-related risks appeared to provide a more constructive backdrop for broader equity markets this week. Mike flagged that President Trump's address to the United Nations as well as President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the United States on September 24 could emerge as important market catalysts in the week ahead. Investors will be closely monitoring discussions surrounding artificial intelligence, trade relations, and the ongoing conflict involving Iran, as developments in any of these areas could have meaningful implications for global equity, commodity, and currency markets.
S2 · E345
September 16 · 58 min
"20% Of The World’s LNG Is Now Interruptible" – Martin Houston
As you may know, Gastech is currently underway in Bangkok, Thailand. To help us get a sense of the on-the-ground takeaways and sentiment, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Martin Houston. Martin is a longtime energy industry leader with decades of global experience. He currently serves as Chairman of Omega Oil and Gas, a Non-Executive Director of Energean, BUPA Arabia, CC Energy, and Singapore GasCo, and a Senior Advisor at Moelis & Company. Martin previously co-founded Tellurian, where he served as Executive Chairman until the company’s sale in 2024, and spent 32 years at BG Group, serving as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director. Mark Castiglione is also attending Gastech and joined us for today’s session. We were thrilled to host Martin and hear his perspectives on the global natural gas and LNG outlook, Asia’s growing energy needs, and beyond. In our conversation, Martin and Mark share key themes emerging from Gastech, including energy security, affordability, and reliability, Asia’s role as the primary engine of global energy demand growth, and a more pragmatic approach to decarbonization. They discuss how Asian policymakers and industry leaders are focused on securing the affordable and reliable energy needed to support economic growth and rising power demand. We explore the global natural gas and LNG outlook, the growing importance of resilience and diversity of supply, the push to advance new U.S. FIDs, and the potential for continued demand growth in increasingly price-sensitive markets such as China. We examine the intersection of energy and geopolitics, including growing government intervention in energy markets, the possibility of Russian natural gas eventually returning to Europe, U.S. natural gas resource depth, and significant gas development opportunities in Australia and Indonesia. We discuss ASEAN grid connectivity and the region’s increasing focus on energy diversification and cooperation, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, European gas storage levels, and potential surprises for global energy markets. Martin highlights growing investment in infrastructure “workarounds” to the Strait that could reshape regional energy flows and expresses optimism that global natural gas demand and supply could ultimately surprise to the upside, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility. We greatly appreciate Martin for joining us during a very busy week in Bangkok. In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley noted that the primary themes in our lead-ins over the past several weeks have been elevated U.S. interest rates, heightened volatility in global oil markets, and below-average European natural gas storage levels. This week, however, another risk entered the spotlight: the AI-driven market scare, which has contributed to increased volatility and negatively impacted U.S. equity markets. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007. Markets are focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with a 25-basis-point rate increase broadly expected and investors watching Chairman Warsh’s comments for signals on inflation and further hikes. In energy, WTI rose to ~$103–$104/bbl, partly reflecting damage to Saudi Arabia’s ~5 MMBpd East-West pipeline system. U.S. retail diesel prices have climbed to ~$6.25/gal, fueling debate over potential export restrictions. European natural gas prices also rose to ~$28/MMBtu, up ~200% year-to-date, as concerns persist over rebuilding storage ahead of winter. Mike wrapped by highlighting growing AI-related concerns, which contributed to a ~500-point decline in the DJIA. Recent comments from Anthropic’s CEO have raised questions in the minds of investors about the longer-term growth trajectory of the Mag 7 and the industrial, utility, and energy companies benefiting from the AI infrastructure build-out. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Thanks again to Martin for joining and our best to you all!
September 11 · 57 min
"You Saw New Yorkers At Their Best That Day" – David Trice, Terry Rathert, and Steve Campbell
Today marks 25 years since September 11, 2001. We wanted to do our part to remember the lives lost, the extraordinary heroism of that day, and the very best of humanity that emerged amid unimaginable tragedy. For this Special Edition COBT, we sat down with three longtime friends, David Trice, Terry Rathert, and Steve Campbell, to remember the events of that morning and reflect on an experience we shared firsthand. On the morning of September 11, 2001, we were having breakfast together at the Marriott World Trade Center, located between and connected to the North and South Towers, when the first plane struck. In our conversation, we retrace the morning as we remember it: the first moments inside the Marriott, our exit south from the World Trade Center complex toward Battery Park, the collapse of the towers, becoming separated, and eventually finding our way out of Manhattan. We reflect on the instinctive decisions made in moments of extraordinary uncertainty, the courage of first responders moving toward danger, and the countless acts of kindness we witnessed from strangers throughout the day. We also discuss how September 11 changed the way we thought about risk, safety, travel, and the world around us. Twenty-five years later, our memories remain remarkably vivid. We believe remembering and sharing these stories matters – not only to honor those who were lost, but also to remember the courage, generosity, and humanity that so many people showed that day. We are deeply grateful to David, Terry, and Steve for joining us for such a personal conversation and for allowing us to share our memories with the COBT community. This was perhaps the most unique episode in COBT’s history. We hope you find the discussion meaningful and that it contributes in some small way to your own remembrance of the day. We Will Never Forget.
S2 · E344
September 9 · 1 hr 10 min
"Our Weather Will Be Dictated By The Polar Vortex" – Dr. Judah Cohen, JANUS Research Group
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Judah Cohen for a discussion focused on weather. Judah is a Director of Seasonal Forecasting at JANUS Research Group and a Research Scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His work focuses on sub-seasonal to seasonal weather forecasting, with particular expertise in the polar vortex, Arctic climate variability, and the factors that drive winter weather across North America and Europe. We were excited to hear Judah’s perspective on the upcoming season, the evolution of weather forecasting, and how new technologies including AI could improve our ability to predict weather further into the future. In our conversation, we explore the evolution of weather forecasting and Dr. Cohen’s career studying sub-seasonal to seasonal weather patterns, including the industry’s progression from historical analogs and statistical methods to increasingly sophisticated physics-based models. We discuss how satellite observations and expanded global datasets have improved our understanding of the atmosphere, as well as the limitations of historical weather data and where today’s models continue to struggle, particularly beyond the traditional one- to two-week forecasting window. Dr. Cohen shared his perspective on the growing role of AI in weather forecasting, the strengths and limitations of current dynamical models, and why better modeling of the interactions between the troposphere, polar vortex, and jet stream could meaningfully improve longer-range forecasts. We also discuss the respective roles of academia, government forecasting centers, and private-sector companies in advancing the next generation of weather modeling. We examine upcoming winter outlooks and the implications of a potentially historic “Super El Niño.” Dr. Cohen explains why El Niño’s influence on winter weather is not necessarily linear and cautioned against assuming that an exceptionally strong El Niño guarantees an exceptionally warm winter. We explore his research linking Siberian snow cover to disruptions of the polar vortex and colder conditions in eastern North America as well as the potential for episodic cold and snow even during an otherwise mild winter. We cover the outlook for Europe, where natural gas storage levels make winter weather particularly consequential, and the difficulty of using El Niño alone to reliably forecast European conditions. We also touch on how an unexpected, multi-week cold snap could materially affect natural gas demand and prices, highlighting the significant implications of improving weather forecasting for energy markets and preparedness for extreme winter events. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell ~600 points this week as investors grappled with higher oil prices and rising U.S. bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to ~4.8%, while the 30-year reached ~5.25%. With August CPI and PPI reports due later this week, Mike noted that inflation data could play an important role in shaping interest rate policy at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting. Turning to energy markets, WTI crude oil increased ~$2/bbl to ~$94/bbl amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, with reports of potential explosions on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal. European natural gas prices also continued higher, reaching ~$26–$27/MMBtu and bringing year-to-date gains to ~180%, as concerns grow over Europe’s ability to replenish storage ahead of the winter heating season. Mike wrapped by highlighting the Barclays Energy-Power Conference in New York City, which he is attending this week. Based on his initial meetings, he noted a more constructive tone among companies and investors, with growing optimism around the energy and power outlook into 2027. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.
S2 · E343
September 2 · 1 hr 29 min
“200 Tcf of Recoverable Gas in the Beetaloo Basin” – Todd Abbott & Dick Stoneburner, Tamboran
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Todd Abbott, Chief Executive Officer of Tamboran Resources, and Dick Stoneburner, Chairman of Tamboran's Board, for a conversation recorded on location in Daly Waters, Northern Territory, Australia, a town of roughly 55 people. Tamboran holds approximately 2.8 million net acres across the Beetaloo Basin, and Todd estimates the basin contains roughly 200 Tcf of recoverable gas, enough to support 5 to 6 Bcf per day for a century. The company is dual-listed on the Australian Securities Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. We recorded on Tuesday morning Australia time this week as part of the company’s first gas celebration at the Shenandoah 2 pad. In our conversation, Todd explains why a resource of this scale and duration is unique globally, in a region with rising demand and declining domestic supply, and in a country that has supplied LNG to Asia since 1989. He describes the Northern Territory as the most supportive regulatory regime he has worked with, including Texas, with a high bar on standards paired with real support in clearing them. We explore Tamboran's various strategic partnerships, including Liberty Energy, Helmerich & Payne, and Baker Hughes, all of which are investors in the company. We also discuss INPEX's recent farm-in to the Daly Waters joint venture. Todd covers the company’s cost structure in the field and also discusses gas prices which are roughly three times U.S. levels. As we wrapped up with Todd, we touch on the growing inbound interest from multinationals to Asian gas utilities, and his view that timing, not geology, is the biggest uncertainty he cannot control. A theme throughout the discussion with Todd was his comparison of this new shale development to others he has seen in his 25-year career. Dick then takes us under the hood on the subsurface. At roughly 1.4 billion years old, the Beetaloo is the oldest petroleum system in the world, deposited when only a single life form existed, leaving 150 meters of continuous thermogenic shale from that one organism type. He describes petrophysical characteristics most comparable to the Marcellus and superior to it in many areas, and early well behavior that appears genuinely different, including one well on incline at the tail end of a 90-day test with no surface changes. He also walks us through how Tamboran found the over pressured areas, moving 60 miles south into the deepest part of the basin. We close with well spacing at Shenandoah 2, the beneficial use of gas allowance that lets Tamboran produce ahead of a formal production license, and the milestones Dick is watching, principally the first real decline curves and the testing of additional landing zones. Dick has been involved with the company since 2014 and, as a result, offers a phenomenal historical perspective. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that Treasury yields moved higher across the curve this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.8% and the 30-year Treasury yield exceeding 5.25%. The increase in yields was driven primarily by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's more hawkish tone at last week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which prompted investors to scale back expectations for future interest rate cuts. Turning to the broader equity market, he highlighted that the S&P 500 declined ~1% this week, pressured by higher oil prices and rising bond yields. With second-quarter earnings season largely in the rearview mirror, investor attention is increasingly shifting toward the September 16 FOMC meeting and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Turning to oil markets, WTI crude oil prices increased ~$6/bbl (to ~$90/bbl) this week amid renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Mike noted that the biggest development in the oil market this week was the announcement of a 65-billion-barrel oil agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela. Turning to natural gas, European prices continued to move higher this week, reaching ~$25/MMBtu (up over 165% year-to-date). The primary driver remains concern over whether European storage inventories can be replenished to "minimum" required levels before the start of the winter heating season in November. The energy sector advanced ~3% this week, supported primarily by stronger crude oil prices. Mike noted that M&A and strategic deals were a major theme across the energy and electricity complex, with four significant deals/transactions announced this week: SLB's acquisition of Kelvion for ~$4.0 billion; ONEOK's acquisition of Brazos Midstream for ~$4.4 billion; Comstock Resources' $1.65 billion cash transaction with SOCAR; and Fervo Energy's 396-megawatt power purchase agreement (PPA) with Google. Mark Castiglione also joined the conversation, and with the help of Albert De La Portilla, he will be spending roughly a week in the Beetaloo basin understanding all the aspects of the play. The Tamboran team could not have been better hosts, and we sincerely appreciate this opportunity.
S2 · E342
August 26 · 1 hr 1 min
"We’re at the Beginning of a New Industrial Age" – Erin Price-Wright, Andreessen Horowitz
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Erin Price-Wright, General Partner in American Dynamism at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). Erin joined a16z from Index Ventures in 2024, where she was a Partner focused on software infrastructure and applied AI. She previously served as Head of Product for Palantir’s data analytics and machine learning program. The American Dynamism practice invests in founders and companies that support the national interest spanning aerospace, defense, public safety, education, housing, supply chain, industrials, and manufacturing. We were thrilled to hear Erin’s perspective on the rapidly evolving intersection of AI, energy, and industrial technology. In our conversation, Erin shares the story behind a16z’s American Dynamism practice and its early investments in companies including SpaceX, Anduril, Applied Intuition, Shield AI, and Skydio. She discusses how the firm’s conviction in the space developed well before the recent surge of interest in industrial technology. We explore the convergence of AI, supply chain vulnerabilities, geopolitical pressures, reindustrialization, and skilled labor shortages, which Erin believes are creating the conditions for the “next great American industrial build-out.” We discuss physical AI and robotics, the potential to automate dangerous, expensive, and labor-intensive activities across energy and industrial operations, the challenges of deploying physical AI, and the importance of taking a practical approach to automation by starting with specific activities where the economics make sense and expanding from there. We touch on why venture capital is returning to energy and industrial technology, China’s advantage in deployment versus the U.S.’s strength in experimentation and entrepreneurship, and the importance of permitting and regulatory certainty. We also examine data centers and the broader question of whether America wants to build, Erin’s thoughts for energy and industrial leaders looking to accelerate innovation within their organizations, and much more. Special thanks to Erin for joining! We look forward to partnering with a16z on our upcoming Energy & Industrial Technology Showcase in Houston on September 10. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~4.65%, down ~10bps on the week but still near its highest level of the year. Bond investors are focused on the ongoing Canada tariff dispute, Wednesday’s Core PCE inflation report, and Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Major equity indices finished lower last week but are modestly higher this week, with attention now centered on NVIDIA’s second-quarter earnings report Wednesday and its 6- to 12-month capital spending outlook. Turning to energy markets, Mike highlighted that WTI crude oil had declined ~$5/bbl this week to ~$82/bbl following the Treasury Secretary’s announcement of “Operation Economic Outcast,” aimed at increasing economic pressure on Iran. EU natural gas prices rose another ~$1/MMBtu to ~$23/MMBtu, with storage levels remaining a concern ahead of winter. The energy sector was modestly lower this week but remains up ~5% month-to-date, led by refiners (+~12%). In power, electric utilities are down ~5% month-to-date, while IPPs, large-scale generators, and distributed generation providers are down ~10%–15% on average, largely reflecting higher interest rates and growing state-level opposition to data center development.
August 21 · 54 min
"The Responsibilities That Come With A Facility Like This Are Big" – Jared Wimberley, PBF Energy
Continuing our California COBT Series, we are excited to share this Special Edition featuring PBF Energy. We had the pleasure of touring PBF’s 700-acre Torrance Refinery and met with Jared Wimberley, Refinery Manager. The facility has a nameplate crude capacity of 166,000 barrels per day and a Nelson Complexity Index of 13.8. It produces approximately 1.8 billion gallons of gasoline annually, representing roughly 10 percent of California’s gasoline demand. In addition to blending three grades of gasoline, the refinery produces diesel fuel, jet fuel, liquefied petroleum gases, coke, and sulfur. We were thrilled to visit the facility, meet members of the team, and see firsthand the scale and complexity behind a critical piece of California’s energy infrastructure. In our conversation, Jared highlights the critical role the Torrance Refinery plays in California’s energy system, economy, and local community. We discuss the refinery’s nearly century-long history, its significant economic impact and high-quality jobs, the complexity and safety of modern refinery operations, and the importance of maintaining strong relationships with the City of Torrance and surrounding community. Jared shares his perspective on California’s challenging refining environment, including high power and operating costs, regulatory complexity, access to California crude, workforce development, and the implications of declining in-state refining capacity. We explore the connection between reliable local energy production and affordability, including how energy costs ripple through the broader economy, from transportation and manufacturing to groceries and other everyday goods. California’s economy continues to depend on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, electricity, and petroleum-derived materials, making the future of refining an important part of the broader conversation around the state’s competitiveness, energy security, and cost of living. We close with Jared’s perspective on the opportunity for California to balance its environmental goals with the need for reliable, affordable energy and a strong economy.
August 20 · 56 min
"Diablo Canyon Is The Largest Generating Facility In California" – Maureen Zawalick, PG&E & Matt Crozat, NEI
We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT. Continuing our California Series, we had the opportunity to tour the Diablo Canyon Power Plant and sit down with Maureen Zawalick, Senior Vice President and Chief Risk Officer at PG&E Corporation, and Matt Crozat, Executive Director of Strategy and Policy Development at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Our visit was particularly timely as the U.S. Department of Energy recently awarded PG&E $271 million to support extended operations at Diablo Canyon, while Governor Gavin Newsom recently indicated he would leave the decision on extending the plant beyond 2030 to the next administration. Diablo Canyon produces nearly 10% of California’s electricity and is the state’s only operating nuclear power plant. In our conversation, we explore Diablo Canyon’s history and critical role in California’s power system, the remarkable shift from plans to close the plant to extending its operating life, and how rising electricity demand, electrification, AI, and data centers are reshaping the state’s energy outlook. We discuss the broader nuclear renaissance, the importance of preserving and investing in existing nuclear plants, and the role nuclear power plays in providing affordable, reliable power and grid stability. We cover the regulatory path for Diablo Canyon beyond 2030, the benefits of long-term planning for workforce retention and uranium procurement, and the plant’s impact on electricity affordability. Maureen shares PG&E’s approach to safety and risk management, including seismic safety, water use and environmental stewardship, wildfire, cyber, AI, and the importance of culture and processes in managing risk. We discuss Diablo Canyon’s relationship with the surrounding community and the importance of public engagement and outreach. We end by looking ahead to new nuclear technologies and SMRs, changing attitudes toward nuclear energy at both the state and federal levels, California’s nuclear moratorium, and the need for durable, long-term energy policy. We also discuss the connection between affordable and reliable electricity, manufacturing, economic competitiveness, and where businesses ultimately choose to invest and grow. It was a fascinating discussion and an incredible opportunity to see Diablo Canyon firsthand.
S2 · E341
August 19 · 1 hr 33 min
"The Art Of The Possible Is Phenomenal" – Francisco Leon, California Resources Corporation
We are excited to continue our California COBT Series with a discussion featuring Francisco Leon, President and CEO of California Resources Corporation (CRC). This episode was the culmination of a full day with the CRC team studying California’s oil and gas complex firsthand. We started at the Port of Long Beach, traveled north to CRC’s Elk Hills operations near Bakersfield, and ended the day in Santa Clarita, where we sat down with Francisco to discuss what we had seen and the broader outlook for California energy. Along the way, we visited with Dean Persinger, Vice President of the Wilmington Production Complex, at the Port of Long Beach; Gabby Gonzales, Senior External Affairs Advisor, at Elk Hills to discuss CRC’s community engagement efforts; as well as Joe Jephson, Engineering Manager at Carbon TerraVault, and Brent Ilott, Vice President of Operations of the Elk Hills Production Complex. The day gave us the opportunity to see the breadth of California energy production up close and better understand the infrastructure and policies shaping the state’s energy system. It was a unique opportunity to see CRC’s operations firsthand and spend time with the people working across the company’s California footprint. In our conversation with Francisco, we discuss the changing energy landscape in California and the state’s efforts to balance affordability, reliability, environmental priorities, and local energy production. Francisco shares his perspective on a more constructive environment for energy investment, including improved permitting activity in Kern County and the growing focus on the costs and energy-security implications of relying on imported energy. We discuss CRC’s evolution into a broader California energy platform and the significant optionality across its existing asset base. We explore the history and future of CRC’s Long Beach and Elk Hills operations, including conventional oil and gas production, power generation, carbon capture and sequestration, and the proposed Golden Valley data center development. We cover CRC’s recently announced Crimson acquisition and the strategic value of ~2,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure across California, the company’s broader consolidation strategy following the Aera and Berry transactions, and how CRC could increasingly serve as both an operator and an enabler for additional capital, partnerships, and development in the state. Francisco also shares his thoughts on company culture, community engagement, and the importance of working constructively with regulators, political leadership, and local communities. Mike Bradley patched in and kicked us off by noting that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~5.3%, its highest level in two decades, despite relatively subdued inflation data the previous week. He highlighted the record pace of bond issuance financing the AI infrastructure buildout and the possibility that it could be competing with heavy U.S. government issuance for capital and contributing to higher borrowing costs. Turning to equities, both the Dow and S&P 500 have modestly declined this week as second-quarter earnings season winds down and investors look ahead to NVIDIA’s results next week. In energy markets, WTI crude had risen ~$3/barrel this week to ~$85/barrel, largely reflecting expectations that the Iran conflict will remain an ongoing issue as the 60-day MOU expires. European natural gas prices have also increased to ~$22/MMBtu, up ~$2/MMBtu over the past couple of weeks. TTF prices are now up ~140% this year, with EU storage levels, particularly in Germany, well below seasonal five-year averages and below levels seen in 2021 ahead of the sharp increase in gas prices during the 2021-2022 winter. The energy sector has posted modest gains alongside higher crude prices. With second-quarter earnings largely complete, Mike expects sector performance to be driven by oil prices, the broader equity market, and company-specific fundamentals. In power, he highlighted Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s executive order imposing stricter oversight on proposed data centers, including electricity and water-use guidelines and local approvals, effectively giving communities greater influence over siting decisions. Mark Castiglione joined us throughout the day and added his questions and perspective to the discussion.
S2 · E340
August 12 · 1 hr
"We Are Morally Obligated To Lean Into This" – Mike Fey, Island.io
Today we are thrilled to welcome Mike Fey, Co-Founder and CEO of Island.io, for a robust discussion on AI, technology, and the future of work. Mike is a seasoned technology executive and entrepreneur with deep experience in enterprise software and cybersecurity. Founded in 2020, Island is reimagining the enterprise browser as a platform that brings together access, security, and productivity, enabling employees to move faster while giving organizations the governance and control required at enterprise scale. We were pleased to hear Mike’s perspective on this rapidly evolving landscape. In our conversation, Mike first shares Island’s origin and founding premise: to improve the knowledge worker’s experience while building security into the platform rather than adding it as an afterthought. We explore Island’s philosophy of enabling employees to move quickly and innovate within an enterprise framework of security and governance, extending controls designed for human knowledge workers to “agentic knowledge workers,” and using the browser as an enterprise platform to replace legacy IT infrastructure and potentially consolidate portions of the security stack. Mike shares his perspective on why expectations for near-term enterprise AI ROI are often unrealistic and why successful adoption requires more than simply giving employees access to AI. We discuss the importance of creating a secure environment in which employees can experiment, build, share, and deploy AI while choosing the right AI model for the job and finding the right mix of sovereign, enterprise-controlled, and cloud-based AI. We examine how the valuable asset in AI may increasingly be the proprietary context, data, and workflows feeding models rather than simply the resulting work product. Mike explains how Island can give enterprises visibility into where data originated, who or what accessed it, why an action occurred, and how those capabilities become increasingly important as agents begin interacting with other agents. We explore Island’s “tactically strategic” approach to enterprise adoption, starting with practical, self-funding opportunities to simplify the technology stack and reduce costs while building the foundation for broader AI adoption. Mike discusses M&A as one example, where establishing a secure shared environment can allow companies to begin realizing value from an acquisition before completing the full IT integration. We discuss what boards should be asking about AI, how AI adoption is currently increasing worker capability rather than simply eliminating jobs, and the challenge of scaling AI across large organizations. Mike describes adoption as a “crawl, walk, run” process and argues that most companies remain in the crawl stage. He explains why companies shouldn’t wait to establish AI capabilities and shares examples of organizations using AI not simply to improve existing processes but to transform their business models. We end the session with Mike’s compelling view that AI adoption is a leadership obligation: companies should prepare their employees to remain capable and competitive in an AI-shaped economy rather than allow their skills to become outdated. It was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Mike’s passion for the industry and his enthusiasm for the possibilities. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion with observations on the fixed income market, noting that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was trading at ~4.7% ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI reports, which could help shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decision. In equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 were each down approximately 30 basis points. With second quarter earnings season largely complete, Mike highlighted Intel’s $20 billion equity offering to fund capital expenditures, which was reportedly oversubscribed by more than five times. Turning to energy, WTI crude oil had risen approximately $5/bbl this week to roughly $83/bbl, reflecting growing skepticism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will fully normalize in the near term. Mike noted that Iran-related policy has been a key driver of oil price volatility over the past two months. The energy sector had gained approximately 5% this week alongside higher crude prices. With second quarter energy earnings essentially complete, Mike wrapped by reviewing key themes across oilfield services, E&Ps, integrated oil majors, refiners, midstream, and power and electric utilities. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their valuable technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.
August 6 · 45 min
"Stop Talking, Start Working" – Leif Johan Sevland, Offshore Northern Seas Foundation
This week we had the privilege of hosting Leif Johan Sevland, President and CEO of the Offshore Northern Seas Foundation (ONS), for a Special Edition. Leif is a Norwegian business leader and former politician with a distinguished career spanning public service and the energy sector. Prior to joining ONS, Leif served as the Mayor of Stavanger from 2005 to 2011. The ONS 2026 Conference is fast approaching, taking place from August 24–27 in Stavanger, Norway. The conference is held biennially and attracts 70,000+ global industry leaders representing over 1,100 companies and 35+ countries. We were honored to host Leif to preview this year’s conference, its major themes, and the trends shaping Norway’s, Europe’s and the world’s energy landscape. In our conversation, Leif shared a preview of what attendees can expect at ONS 2026 and how this year's conference theme, Courage, is intended to challenge industry leaders to move beyond discussion and embrace decisive action in addressing the world's evolving energy needs. We explore Norway's unique position as both a leading oil and gas producer and an energy innovator, discussing how energy security, affordability, technological innovation, and shifting geopolitical dynamics are reshaping energy markets, investment priorities, and policy around the world. We examine Europe's evolving innovation ecosystem, the accelerating adoption of AI and its growing impact on power demand, renewed interest in nuclear energy, and the convergence of energy, defense, and industrial technologies. Leif emphasizes the importance of open dialogue, global collaboration, and developing the next generation of industry leaders, and shares how ONS brings together policymakers, operators, investors, entrepreneurs, and innovators to exchange ideas and help shape the future of energy. The Veriten team will be at ONS, participating in a few panels, and connecting with good friends and with some of our partner and portfolio companies that will also be in attendance. Mike Bradley started off the discussion by noting that two key market themes remained in place: lower oil prices and stronger equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield remained range-bound, showing little directional movement. On the equity market front, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up ~500 to 600 points on the day, with gains driven primarily by Amgen, Caterpillar, and Goldman Sachs. On the oil market front, downward pressure on crude prices continued, with WTI falling by approximately $1/bbl to around $75/bbl. The decline was driven largely by market optimism that the temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran would remain in place. He noted, however, that oil prices appear increasingly oversold from a technical perspective, having declined roughly $10 to $15/bbl over the past one to two weeks. As a result, crude prices could rebound sharply should the current military pause end or geopolitical tensions re-escalate. He concluded by highlighting key takeaways from Saudi Aramco’s 2Q earnings call, noting that management delivered a decidedly bullish message on the outlook for global oil markets. According to Aramco, oil markets are far tighter than many indicators/prices suggest. Aramco noted that global markets lost ~11mmbpd of supply because of the conflict and shipping disruptions; strategic reserve releases and inventory drawdowns have masked the true extent of the shortage; inventory data understates physical market tightness; global inventories have been heavily depleted and must now be rebuilt over several years; and it would take around 18 months and roughly 2.1mmbpd of incremental demand just to restore inventories to pre-conflict levels if conditions normalize immediately. We were fortunate to also have Veriten Venture Partner Karl Liapunov join and share his insights throughout the discussion. Karl is the founder of Starting Cold and is the U.S. Ecosystem Partner at Startuplab, where he previously served as Head of Energy & Climate Tech in Oslo.
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August 5 · 1 hr 5 min
"If You Control Food Security, You Can Control National Security" – Corey Rosenbusch, The Fertilizer Institute
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Corey Rosenbusch for a wide-ranging discussion on the fertilizer industry, global energy markets, and the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping both. Corey is the President and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Corey joined TFI in 2020 after serving as President and CEO of the Global Cold Chain Alliance. He currently serves as Chair of the Texas A&M University Agricultural Leadership, Education & Communication Department Advisory Board and the Association Leadership Group. We were thrilled to host Corey to better understand the connections between fertilizer, natural gas, food security, and global supply chains. In our conversation, Corey provides a comprehensive overview of the global fertilizer industry and its critical connection to energy markets. He explains how natural gas serves as the essential feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, outlines the distinct dynamics of nitrogen, phosphate, potash, and sulfur markets, and discusses why fertilizer has become increasingly intertwined with global geopolitics, food security, and national security. We examine how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected global flows of urea, ammonia, phosphate, and sulfur, why export restrictions from China and Russia have reshaped global trade, and how government subsidies, tariffs, and state-owned enterprises continue to influence fertilizer pricing and availability. Corey highlights the concentration of global fertilizer production and exports across a handful of countries and explains how those supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. Corey shares why current fertilizer market conditions differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption, how weak farm economics and higher input costs are impacting U.S. growers, and why fertilizer prices are ultimately driven by global supply and demand rather than local production. We discuss the outlook for fertilizer demand, key Farm Bill provisions, including E15 and biostimulants, the competitiveness of U.S. fertilizer manufacturing, and why expanding domestic production, streamlining permitting, and maintaining access to affordable natural gas will be critical to strengthening both U.S. food security and energy security. We learned a great deal from Corey and greatly enjoyed the discussion. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted the day's market trifecta: lower bond yields, lower oil prices, and higher equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading between 4.60% and 4.65%, well below last week's high of ~4.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up approximately 1,000 points, driven largely by significant share price gains in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs. These two stocks alone accounted for roughly 500 points of the DJIA's gain. He highlighted several companies scheduled to report second-quarter earnings results this week, including AMD, Disney, Eli Lilly, and SpaceX. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI crude oil prices had fallen roughly $9/bbl to ~$75-$76/bbl so far this week following a temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran. While U.S. strikes are on hold for now, military action could resume at any point, contributing to heightened oil price volatility. Despite WTI declining more than 10% this week, the energy sector was down only ~1.5%. Investor focus last week was primarily on second-quarter earnings results from the U.S. integrated oil majors, Chevron and ExxonMobil, as well as refiners, with management teams indicating that global refining margins remain structurally tight. He highlighted BP's new CEO's comment that it would be "prudent" to stop thinking of BP as a traditional Big Oil supermajor and instead compete within its own weight class. He concluded by highlighting President Trump's remarks about to Chevron’s and ExxonMobil’s record-setting quarterly results. President Trump argued that these companies were making too much money and should return more of their profits to the public and lower retail prices. Chevron and ExxonMobil generated average second-quarter profit margins in the mid-to-high teens and have generally reported high single-digit to low-double-digit profit margins over the past three years. By comparison, large-cap tech companies reported average second-quarter profit margins of ~40% and have averaged ~45% to 50% profit margins over the last three years. Jeff Tillery added his perspective on the outlook for U.S. natural gas demand, noting that forecasts call for roughly 20 bcfd of cumulative demand growth over the next five years. While significant, he emphasized that this largely represents a continuation of trends already underway. U.S. natural gas demand increased by nearly 20 bcfd over the past five years, driven primarily by LNG exports, and he expects exports to remain the primary driver of growth going forward. While he remains constructive on the long-term natural gas demand outlook, he emphasized that the next phase is more evolutionary than transformational.
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July 29 · 1 hr 2 min
"Natural Gas Is An AI Vertical" – James West, Melius Research
Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade. In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline. James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever’s going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James’ reflections on New York City’s enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday’s advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings. On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market’s strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals. Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.
July 23 · 57 min
"Humanoid Robots Are The Ultimate TAM" – Martin Viecha, MV Motion Advisory
We are pleased to continue our COBT California Summer Series with today’s episode featuring Martin Viecha, Founder and Advisor at MV Motion Advisory. Prior to founding MV Motion, Martin served as the Vice President of Investor Relations at Tesla and previously spent several years as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the automotive and technology sectors. Based in Palo Alto, MV Motion is focused on robotaxis and autonomy, humanoid robots, and the evolving automotive landscape. We were delighted to host Martin for a wide-ranging discussion on the technologies shaping the future of transportation, robotics, and AI. In our conversation, Martin provides a comprehensive overview of the rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle and humanoid robotics landscape. We discuss why he believes robotaxis are approaching a mainstream adoption inflection point, transitioning from a Silicon Valley novelty to a service that will soon be available across much of the U.S. He explains why California, Texas, and Florida have emerged as leading deployment markets, how expanding permitting and improving safety records are accelerating adoption, and why safety, utilization rates, and cost per mile will ultimately determine the industry’s winners. We explore Tesla’s camera-only autonomous driving approach versus Waymo’s multi-sensor strategy and the long-term implications for automakers, ride-hailing platforms, insurance, and vehicle ownership. We examine China’s growing leadership in EVs and robotics, the enormous long-term potential for humanoid robots, the significant technical hurdles that remain around dexterity, world models, and data collection, and why geopolitics, national security, and public policy are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of advanced robotics and AI. Martin outlines why, despite the excitement surrounding humanoid robots, they remain considerably further from widespread commercialization than robotaxis due to the vastly greater complexity of replicating human movement and decision-making. It was a fascinating discussion. We look forward to staying connected with Martin and continuing to follow his research. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the next three to four weeks will be dominated by second-quarter earnings reports. From a fixed income perspective, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to trend higher, driven in part by rising energy prices and their inflationary impact. The S&P 500 was up modestly on the day, gaining roughly 0.25%. In commodities, Brent crude oil rose approximately $2/bbl to around $94/bbl amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. President Trump also formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia to support the development of a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom, potentially opening the door to uranium enrichment activities there. In energy and power equities, GE Vernova (GEV) shares fell approximately 8% following earnings as the company fell short of highly elevated investor expectations despite reporting solid gas turbine performance and providing robust forward guidance. In contrast, Weatherford International (WFRD) shares rose as much as 9% after delivering strong quarterly results and a more optimistic outlook for the second half of 2026 than the market had anticipated. With equity markets trading near all-time highs and quarterly and second-half 2026 expectations remaining extremely elevated for many companies, Mike noted that the next three to four weeks of earnings reports could generate significant market volatility. Ellen Wilkirson also joined the discussion and peppered in her technology questions and perspectives.
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July 22 · 57 min
"The Chinese Economy Is Built On Oil And They Are Dependent On Oil" – Giacomo Prandelli, The Merchant’s News
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Giacomo "Jack" Prandelli, Founder of The Merchant’s News Substack. The Merchant’s News covers oil, gas, LNG, metals, and geopolitics, with a particular focus on global trade flows, commodity markets, and the macro forces shaping energy prices. Jack is a former commodities trader who has built a large global following on LinkedIn and X through his data-driven analysis of rapidly evolving geopolitical events and energy markets. We were pleased to visit with Jack to discuss the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the resilience of global oil markets, and the evolving geopolitical forces reshaping the global energy landscape. In our conversation, Jack explains why he believes oil prices have been far more resilient than many expected despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He walks us through a few charts and outlines how coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in global oil flows, and increased production from the U.S. and Middle East producers helped offset supply disruptions. We discuss the evolving balance of power in global energy markets, including the growing influence of U.S. production, China's role as the world's largest oil importer, and what the conflict revealed about OPEC, strategic petroleum reserves, and the resilience of the global energy system. Jack outlines why refining, not crude supply, has emerged as the market's primary constraint, how Russian refinery attacks and China's inventory strategy have reshaped global energy flows, and why he believes the market remains structurally bullish over the longer term. We also explore the shift toward energy security, deglobalization, and the changing geopolitical landscape as countries increasingly prioritize control over energy, refining, and commodity supply chains. We greatly appreciate Jack for joining us and sharing his insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets continue to trend higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to ~4.62% and the 30-year Treasury yield reaching ~5.14%. Both benchmarks are nearing the peak levels seen during the height of the Iran war, highlighting bond market concerns around inflation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up just under 1% for the week to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Tuesday's standout performer, gaining ~400 points on strength in industrial stocks, led by 3M, whose shares surged ~8%. Several high-profile companies are scheduled to report results this week, including Alphabet (Google), Tesla, IBM, Intel, and NextEra Energy. On the oil market front, Brent crude was trading at ~$91/bbl, up ~$3/bbl for the week and ~$15/bbl over the past two weeks. Notably, Brent settled above $90/bbl for the first time since early June. Mike noted that the energy complex is wrestling more with global refining constraints than a global crude oil supply shortage. As evidence, U.S. Gulf Coast refining crack spreads have risen to ~$70/bbl, up from ~$60/bbl three weeks ago and from ~$25/bbl prior to the onset of the Iran war. He concluded by noting that investors are turning their attention to second-quarter earnings across the oilfield services sector, with Halliburton kicking off the group's reporting season on Tuesday. Several other key service providers are scheduled to report this week, including Weatherford International, Liberty Energy, Oceaneering International, and SLB. The broader energy sector will also be active, with earnings expected from EQT Corporation, Range Resources, Equinor, Kinder Morgan, Ovintiv, TotalEnergies, and Repsol. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.
July 16 · 54 min
"Permitting Can Really Strangle Our Country If We Don’t Fix It" – U.S. Senator Alan Armstrong
We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK). Senator Armstrong, alongside Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Katie Britt (R-AL), and James Lankford (R-OK), recently introduced the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act. The legislation seeks to modernize the federal permitting process for energy and mineral infrastructure projects while preserving strong environmental protections. We were delighted to host Senator Armstrong to discuss his experience in Washington, the motivation behind the legislation, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. infrastructure development. In our conversation, Senator Armstrong discusses his transition from leading Williams Companies to serving in the U.S. Senate and explains why permitting reform has become one of the country's most pressing economic and national security priorities. He walks us through the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act, outlining how the legislation seeks to streamline federal permitting, reduce unnecessary litigation, provide greater regulatory certainty for project developers, and create a more predictable process for building critical infrastructure. We explore how permitting delays increase costs for consumers, discourage private investment, and threaten America's economic and technological competitiveness as electricity demand accelerates alongside AI and data center growth. Longer term, it’s not an overstatement to say failing to address these issues will also threaten the country’s national security. Senator Armstrong shares his perspective on building bipartisan support for permitting reform, maintaining an energy source-neutral approach, and ensuring that pipelines, transmission lines, nuclear facilities, and other critical infrastructure can be built in a more timely and predictable manner. We touch on the growing importance of grid reliability, the intersection of permitting reform and national security, and why he believes the current Congress has a unique opportunity to address these long-standing challenges before rising power demand and infrastructure constraints become even more acute. The discussion was especially timely as the push is on to get permitting reform done during this Congress. The Senator emphasized, “Who in the world would oppose this? We’re going to be asking that question exactly on the floor tomorrow as we’re starting to put pressure on moving this bill forward.” We greatly appreciate Senator Armstrong for joining us and for his leadership on this important issue. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key market developments, noting that favorable inflation data has supported markets this week. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI reports released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to roughly 4.55% and reduced near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude oil prices appeared to have temporarily stabilized at approximately $85/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively, despite President Trump’s escalation of military strikes against Iran. On the equity front, the S&P 500 was up about 0.25% on the day, supported by the favorable PPI report. Telecom was the top-performing sector, gaining roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, led by Google, following reports that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a large position in the stock. He concluded by highlighting the significant value creation achieved during Alan Armstrong’s tenure as CEO of Williams Companies. Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, offering valuable perspective on the legislative process and the dynamics in Washington.
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July 15 · 1 hr 13 min
"Commercialization Is Really Around the Corner" – Dr. Michl Binderbauer, TAE Technologies
This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Lake Forest, California, to tour TAE Technologies’ facilities and spend time with the company’s CEO, Dr. Michl Binderbauer. Founded in 1998, TAE has spent nearly three decades pursuing one of the energy industry’s most ambitious goals: commercializing a safe, sustainable, and economically viable source of fusion energy. With renewed momentum in the fusion industry, we thought it was the perfect time to visit TAE and better understand why many believe fusion’s moment may finally be approaching. Our visit also marks the beginning of a California COBT series, where over the coming weeks, we'll highlight some of the state's innovative companies, technologies, and leaders. We will also touch on a challenge or two the state is facing. Stay tuned! In our discussion, Michl explains why he believes fusion has reached a true inflection point after nearly three decades of scientific and engineering progress. He outlines why TAE was founded with the “end in mind,” deliberately choosing the more technically challenging hydrogen-boron fuel cycle because it offered the best path to a commercially viable power plant rather than simply proving the science. We explore how advances in AI, machine learning, advanced computing, and materials science have accelerated development, why TAE believes commercial fusion is now measured in years rather than decades, and how the company is preparing to build its first demonstration power plant. We discuss TAE’s innovative approach to commercializing technologies developed along the way, including its advanced power management platform that is finding applications in AI data centers, industrial facilities, and grid modernization. Michl shares his vision for fusion’s role in delivering abundant, reliable energy to meet the world’s rapidly growing electricity demand, the importance of recent U.S. regulatory reforms, the race with China to commercialize fusion, workforce and supply chain challenges, and why he believes fusion has become not only an energy opportunity, but also an economic and national security imperative. We look at what the next five years could look like for TAE, why hyperscalers, industrial customers, and the Department of War may become some of fusion’s earliest adopters before widespread utility deployment, the company’s long-term vision for a more distributed electric grid, and much more. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion, and we greatly appreciate Michl for sharing his time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets have been volatile this week. He highlighted that the cooler-than-expected CPI report sparked a rally in Treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down from roughly 4.65% to 4.55%, and said Wednesday's PPI report will be another important data point for the Fed. U.S. equities also moved higher, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.5% on the back of the CPI report and strong bank earnings, while the Dow lagged following a sharp selloff in IBM shares after disappointing quarterly results. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude prices climbed roughly $8-$9/bbl this week following the collapse of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and renewed disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that today's challenge is less a global crude supply issue than a global refining problem, citing tight refined product inventories and the loss of roughly 1.5 million bpd of Russian refining capacity following Ukrainian attacks. He also highlighted that European natural gas prices have surged from approximately $16/MMBtu to $19/MMBtu as storage levels remain 20%-25% below seasonal norms and buyers compete for LNG cargoes. Mike noted that Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this week, up approximately 3%, as investors turn their attention to second-quarter oilfield services earnings. He also highlighted the newly announced strategic alliance between SLB and Liberty Energy focused on data center infrastructure and power solutions, noting that similar partnerships are likely to become increasingly common across the energy sector.
July 10 · 1 hr 4 min
"We Win on Innovation Ten Out Of Ten Times" – Dr. Rian Bahran, U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy
With the recent wave of milestones across the U.S. nuclear sector, we were eager to better understand what these achievements mean for the future of advanced reactors. Over the past month, Antares, Valar Atomics, Deployable Energy, and Aalo Atomics each achieved criticality, an important technical milestone, through the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) and Nuclear Energy Launch Pad. To help us put these milestones into context, we were delighted to host Dr. Rian Bahran, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Reactors in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy. Rian oversees the Department's portfolio for advanced reactor research, demonstration, and deployment, and is a career member of the Senior Executive Service who has served under both the Biden and Trump Administrations. We were thrilled to visit with Rian to "demystify" the latest developments in U.S. nuclear and discuss what still needs to happen before these technologies reach commercial scale. In our conversation, Rian explains why the four recent criticality milestones represent an important step forward for advanced nuclear. While criticality is not the finish line, he shares how these demonstrations help validate a new commercialization pathway by allowing companies to build and test nuclear hardware in months rather than years. He describes how the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot and Launch Pad initiatives are creating greater regulatory certainty, helping companies unlock private capital, and accelerating progress toward commercial deployment. We discuss the DOE’s broader strategy for expanding U.S. nuclear capacity, from gigawatt-scale reactors and small modular reactors to microreactors. Rian explains why the DOE is pursuing multiple technologies simultaneously, allowing the market to determine the winning designs while supporting innovation across the reactor, fuel cycle, and supply chain ecosystems. He outlines how reactor uprates, restarts, and investments across the nuclear fuel cycle can provide near-term additions to U.S. generating capacity while advanced reactors continue progressing toward commercialization. We explore the role advanced nuclear could play in powering AI infrastructure, military installations, industrial facilities, and future export markets. Rian discusses how the DOE is leveraging AI to accelerate reactor design, licensing, manufacturing, and deployment, and why workforce development has become one of the industry’s greatest long-term challenges. He emphasizes that the U.S. has reached a true inflection point for nuclear energy, driven by unprecedented alignment across government, industry, private capital, and growing electricity demand. It was a wide-ranging and fascinating discussion, and we sincerely appreciate Rian taking the time to join us during such a busy time. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that three key themes have driven markets so far this quarter. First, Treasury yields have continued to move higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 4.55% and the 30-year Treasury yield climbing above 5%. Second, renewed geopolitical uncertainty following the end of the Iranian ceasefire helped lift WTI crude oil prices by roughly $4/bbl this week to approximately $72/bbl. Third, equity markets have experienced notable sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and back into the Magnificent 7. Mike concluded by highlighting the sharp reversal in sentiment toward small modular reactor (SMR) companies. While SMR stocks were among the market's strongest performers entering 2026 amid growing enthusiasm for nuclear power, the group is now down roughly 30% on average year-to-date. Nick Morriss, Brett Rampal, and Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, contributing their perspectives and questions on nuclear energy and power.
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July 8 · 1 hr 6 min
"Let The Water Flow Digitally As Well As Physically" – Adrianne Lopez, Dr. Scott Tinker, and Derek Tinker
Today we were joined by three outstanding guests to discuss one of the biggest long-term opportunities and challenges facing the Permian Basin: produced water. We were thrilled to welcome Adrianne Lopez, Research and Development Manager at Texas Pacific Water Resources, along with Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas, and Derek Tinker, Founder of Agnostic Data Group. We appreciated hearing each of their perspectives on why produced water has become one of the defining issues for the future of the Permian, the technologies making large-scale desalination increasingly feasible, and how produced water could become a valuable resource for agriculture, power generation, AI infrastructure, and beyond. In our conversation, Scott explains the scale of the challenge, noting that the Permian now produces roughly 20 million barrels of water every day, with water-to-oil ratios continuing to increase across much of the basin. He outlines why disposing of that water through underground injection is becoming more difficult and more expensive, and argues that beneficial reuse represents one of the industry’s largest untapped opportunities. Adrianne walks us through the science behind produced water, explaining why it is significantly more difficult to treat than seawater. She details Texas Pacific’s work developing freeze desalination technology, the company’s new 10,000-barrel-per-day demonstration facility, and why reaching commercial scale, alongside continued regulatory progress, will be critical to improving the economics of produced water desalination. We examine where this water could ultimately be used, from AI data centers and power generation to cotton production and land rehabilitation, and why collaboration between industry, regulators, and technology providers will be essential. We discuss the valuable minerals contained within produced water, including lithium, the role of AI and real-time monitoring in building public trust, and why transparent, independently verified water quality data are as essential as the treatment technology itself. Scott argues that the industry already has many of the technologies needed to move forward. The remaining challenge, he suggests, is creating the economic incentives and regulatory certainty needed to scale solutions that can reduce disposal volumes while creating entirely new sources of water for Texas. As disposal costs continue to rise and desalination costs decline with scale, he believes operators have an opportunity to address a growing operational challenge while reinforcing the industry's long-term position in the Permian. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that market rotation has been the defining theme in recent trading. While Treasury yields moved modestly higher this week, investors are largely looking ahead to next week's CPI and PPI reports for potential market-moving data. Within equities, semiconductor stocks have pulled back sharply after leading the market for much of the year, while the Mag 7 have recently rebounded. In energy, the sector moved higher alongside a roughly $2/bbl increase in WTI crude to ~$70/bbl following renewed attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Mike noted that oil markets appear to be pricing in a quick return to normal in the region, which may prove optimistic. He also highlighted that second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest during the week of July 20, with several oilfield services companies reporting results. U.S. natural gas prices strengthened on hotter summer weather, while European gas prices rose as below-normal inventories and geopolitical tensions supported the market. Mike concluded by highlighting the IEA's 3Q26 Gas Market Report, which projects global natural gas demand will decline 0.5% in 2026. Robby Kester also joined and added his technology perspective and questions throughout the conversation. We will be staying close to this topic and hope you find the conversation as useful and informative as we did. Our best to you all!
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July 1 · 58 min
"There’s Ubiquitous Levels of Data Out There" – Jeremy Fraenkel and Brennan Demro, Fundamental
Today we were thrilled to welcome Jeremy Fraenkel, CEO, and Brennan Demro, Chief Commercial Officer, of Fundamental. We had the opportunity to spend the day with Jeremy and Brennan in Houston visiting with a number of energy companies to discuss how Fundamental's AI technology can be applied across the industry. Fundamental is developing a new category of AI that helps enterprises turn structured data into predictive intelligence, enabling better forecasting, decision-making, and operational performance. In our conversation, we discuss a critical but often underappreciated area of AI: structured and tabular data. Jeremy explains that while large language models have transformed how people work with text, code, images, and video, the vast majority of enterprise data still lives in structured formats, from spreadsheets and databases to sensor data and transaction logs. Fundamental has built Nexus, a foundation model trained on billions of tables. Jeremy and Brennan describe how Fundamental’s model differs from traditional LLMs, particularly around determinism, security, and enterprise deployment. While LLMs can produce different outputs with small changes in wording, Fundamental is designed to deliver consistent, auditable predictions for critical business decisions. We discuss how Fundamental complements large language models within agentic AI workflows, serving as the predictive engine for enterprise data while LLMs handle unstructured information. Rather than replacing LLMs, Jeremy argues that enterprise AI requires both capabilities: LLMs for language and reasoning, and purpose-built models for structured data and prediction. Brennan highlights the company’s ability to deploy within a customer’s own environment, helping address major enterprise concerns around data security and control. We explore how their technology can be applied across energy, including predictive maintenance, asset optimization, demand forecasting, inventory and working capital management, and back-office efficiency. Brennan emphasizes that many energy companies are sitting on decades of rich but underutilized data, and how Fundamental’s approach can help unlock insights from those data sets while augmenting existing data science workflows rather than replacing them. We also touch on AI adoption, proof-of-concept challenges, governance, reliability, and the importance of pairing AI tools with measurable business ROI. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that financial markets have been relatively subdued over the past five trading days. He reviewed year-to-date performance across several key asset classes, including fixed income markets, broad equity indices, energy equities, electric-centric equities, and oil and natural gas commodities. He highlighted several significant market-moving events that have influenced performance across bonds, equities, and commodity markets this year, providing context behind recent market trends and investor sentiment. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation. We greatly enjoyed hosting Jeremy and Brennan in our offices and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. To our Canadian friends, Happy Canada Day! And to everyone celebrating America's 250th Independence Day this week, we wish you a wonderful Fourth of July!

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