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Plausibly Deniable

Lukas and Saila

Modern Anthropology

Hosted by Lukas (https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ) and Saila (https://x.com/sailaunderscore)
Sponsored by Polymarket, Zcash, CitizenX and Passage Press

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  • 33 episodes
  • weekly
  • Avg 2 hr 1 min
  • English

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  • Thursday · 1 hr 33 min

    The Fallacy Of The Slippery Slope Fallacy

    Lukas is still in Rome, and he and Saila start with tennis, the USTA days and why one-on-one sports beat team sports, why youth sports even have subs, and why zoomers say "brutal" about everything. They cover pickup clips and whether anything real survives a camera, the great log-off that never comes, taxing unrealized capital gains and the K-shaped economy, the origin of "below my line," Peter Thiel moving to Argentina, why nobody ever actually leaves Twitter, a boomer who starts a fight at a gas station and loses, suicidal motorcyclists, headlights that are out of control (and work like lawyers), merch made in China and tagged in Italy, why the reorder is never the same product, 2% Europe, the slippery slope as a law of nature, a Roman Airbnb host who wanted cash in hand, picking your dystopia by how many years in the past you want to live, and a $500 dinner called a hobby. Plus: re-anonymizing. Bonus episodes on Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com/podcast Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press ⸻ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Timestamps: 00:00 The Fallacy Of The Slippery Slope Fallacy: Cold open 00:21 Welcome back: tennis and the USTA days 01:15 Why one-on-one sports beat team sports 04:46 What compels anyone to play on the line? 08:02 Hockey is 80% mental AFK 09:01 Baseball: if you're not the pitcher, snooze 10:15 Why do youth sports even have subs? 11:51 Why zoomers say "brutal" 14:32 Conversations as turn-based combat 15:00 Pickup artistry is like scam calls 16:30 Bobby Fischer and memorized social lines 18:28 The great log-off that never comes 19:14 Good weather, better mood 20:54 Nobody makes the "I don't care about you" argument 21:55 Let me be an ugly woman to politicians 22:52 Taxing unrealized capital gains 25:50 Republicans win low income, Democrats win high income 27:55 The K-shaped economy meta bit 30:12 The origin of "below my line" 31:25 We're re-anonymizing 33:14 Sponsors: Zcash, for when you need to re-undox yourself 33:50 Hitting every sponsor: Polymarket, CitizenX, Passage Press 35:24 Don't call them books 35:46 Peter Thiel moving to Argentina was a warning 37:40 Nobody ever actually leaves Twitter 39:13 The boomer who started a fight at a gas station 43:28 Suicidal motorcyclists 45:59 California's environmental case for lane splitting 46:38 The headlights are out of control 47:59 David Goggins, doomscrolling at 3:30 a.m. 51:13 Headlights are like lawyers 52:08 The permanent underclass can't afford headlights 52:24 A government hater begging for regulation 56:25 "This is a battle vehicle": reflashing the ECU 57:15 Merch: Italian vs. Chinese suppliers 58:02 Made in China, tagged in Italy 59:26 Why the reorder is never the same product 01:00:19 300% marked-up Adidas sneakers 01:02:44 Can we just do 2% Europe? 01:03:33 Slippery slope is a law of nature 01:06:01 Voter ID and the naked voting booth 01:07:01 Opportunity cost is negative for most people 01:08:52 The Airbnb host who wanted cash in hand 01:12:57 The greatest Airbnb guest in the universe 01:13:16 Gender discourse is truly American 01:14:33 Pick your dystopia: America is 20 years ahead of Europe 01:17:11 Time-traveling to Chile 01:18:48 Off camera and still placebomaxxing 01:22:33 Priced out of her favorite hobby: eating out 01:24:55 A 3% employee wellbeing charge, 20% gratuity, then tip 01:26:16 Made-up Reddit posts about real people 01:27:51 Three accounts run the Reddit-to-Twitter pipeline 01:29:43 VC Twitter's new favorite word 01:31:47 The goated pickup line in Italy: "Do you speak English?" 01:33:12 Outro

  • November 5 · 1 hr 18 min

    Placebomaxxing

    Lukas checks in from Rome, where it took 90 minutes to not buy a blender, and he and Saila get into when you actually become old, what it does to your psyche to live next to the ruins of a great civilization, why Americans think European women are more attractive, and why nobody in Rome blames you for Trump. They cover becoming ideologically old and no longer believing polls, the creatine study and visualizing your workouts, how to ask for advice (and why you're old once nobody can give you any), why tech has young CEOs, a cold hatred for lawyers, AI-built video games and why god mode ruins Minecraft, the labor theory of meaning and a defense of hazing, freedom of association, Steve Jobs and fasting versus cancer (not medical advice), why nobody trusts a data scientist, disclaimers, and pitch decks sent as Word docs with no words. Plus: placebomaxxing. Bonus episodes on Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com/podcast Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press ⸻ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Timestamps: 00:00 Placebomaxxing: Cold open 00:19 Welcome back: Lukas checks in from Rome 00:38 90 minutes to not buy a blender 04:27 When do you become old? 30 vs. 27 07:01 Rome is walkable, technically 08:03 Living next to the ruins of a great civilization 11:50 A theory on why European women are so attractive 13:42 Italian women and the Japanese leaf girl 15:30 The appeal of the tsundere 16:51 Nobody in Rome blames you for Trump 18:05 We disagree on everything, even pasta 20:51 Nobody in the Mediterranean wants to do anything 21:31 Locked out of the apartment for hours 24:24 Rome in the pandemic: "God bless Fauci" 26:00 Becoming ideologically old 28:19 The creatine study and lean tissue mass 32:41 Manifestation on the plane to Beijing 33:26 The only advice that's 100% true 35:12 People who talk to their younger self through you 36:26 How to ask for advice 40:23 You're old when nobody can give you advice 42:11 Corporate ladders and boomers who won't retire 43:19 Why tech has young CEOs 45:41 Send us your advice questions 46:13 The trad Catholic longhouse era 48:52 Cold hatred for lawyers 51:11 Nobody will ever fix the lawyer problem 52:28 AI video games and personal software 54:07 God mode ruins Minecraft 57:09 The labor theory of meaning 57:56 In defense of hazing 59:00 Frat hazing vs. basic training 01:00:36 What military officers think of frat hazing 01:02:31 Freedom of association fixes 90% of problems 01:03:19 Like a nature documentary: women vs. women 01:05:34 Vaporizing dinner in a lidless Airbnb pot 01:06:33 Rome is shockingly expensive 01:08:27 Placebomaxxing 01:09:24 Steve Jobs and the cancer counterexample 01:11:24 Fasting your way out of cancer (not medical advice) 01:13:50 Nobody likes a data scientist 01:14:53 The lost Tracing Woodgrains episode: do disclaimers work? 01:16:24 "This is financial advice": SpaceX 01:17:01 Pitch decks as Word docs with no words 01:18:00 Outro

  • October 29 · 1 hr 5 min

    In Defense Of Shutting Up

    Lukas and Saila talk about the quiet Greenland deal and why winning in private beats winning in public, from Trump's negotiating style and Israel–Palestine dealmaking to affirmative action, BLM and why you should always give your enemy a line of retreat (and never win the breakup). They cover the most egregious Facebook Marketplace lowball, Peter Thiel's media training and his AfD disavowal, why nobody knows what they like, political compass test season, the tariff panic in hindsight, Truth Social as a strategy, looksmaxing's bodybuilding-forum origins, why surgery is basically construction work, LLMs that can't read your budget, and old Minecraft versus new Minecraft in peaceful mode. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press ⸻ Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Our tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Timestamps: 00:00 Be careful what you wish for: Cold open 00:21 Welcome back: Greenland and the quiet Arctic deal 02:46 The power of doing things in silence 04:41 Celebrity culture and the omni-cause 05:05 Why public wins make real deals harder 07:08 Affirmative action vs. BLM 07:54 Always give your enemy a line of retreat 08:31 Never win the breakup 09:55 Crazy anchors and lowballing 10:41 The most egregious Facebook Marketplace lowball 12:07 Bored in San Francisco: the Sephora encounter 14:20 God mocks the desperate 14:42 Peter Thiel's latest podcast 15:55 "Is humanity worth saving?" 17:12 Thiel's media training kicks in 18:56 What do you mean by "the ant colony"? 19:41 Thiel vs. the AfD 20:12 Disavowing someone more radical than you 21:15 Richard Spencer's 5D chess 22:38 Decoding billionaire PR 23:21 Why some episodes get likes and others don't 25:02 Guest episodes vs. just us 25:51 Audiences don't know what they like 27:12 Hate-commenters are your biggest fans 27:39 You asked for an outro 28:30 Intro music and the car-crash beat 30:08 Political test season 31:18 Why the neutral answer is the based answer 33:38 I'm politically Bill Gates 34:41 Badly designed survey questions 35:06 Designing the PD political test 36:23 Negative valence theory 36:37 The tariff panic in hindsight 37:22 Trump should endorse weird historical ideas 39:42 "They're splitting the atoms" 40:34 Trump's post-presidency reality show 41:12 The simulation's irony meter 42:04 Norm Macdonald couldn't compete 42:44 Truth Social as a masterstroke 43:32 Bluesky, Truth Social and politics-only feeds 44:15 It's not a tweet, it's a truth 45:16 Why we're not suited for real power 45:35 Selling a sponsorship for "Plausibly Deniable" 46:22 Looksmaxing's bodybuilding-forum origins 48:00 The looks-optimized gym routine 49:24 Just don't be fat 49:46 Surgery is construction work 51:21 Surgery solves everything: hair transplants in Turkey 52:08 Price vs. quality in surgery 53:19 Be your own expert 53:52 LLMs as Reddit experts 54:14 How do you find a good surgeon? 55:01 LLMs can't read your budget: the $2,000 screwdriver 57:32 Old Minecraft vs. new Minecraft 58:31 The peaceful mode guy 59:58 The chicken tunnel and the egg painting 01:00:45 Halo, the Flood and 11 years of fear 01:01:55 Zombie nightmares 01:02:27 The old-Minecraft modpack opportunity 01:03:26 The old Minecraft music 01:04:21 Peaceful mode forever 01:05:00 Outro

  • October 23 · 1 hr 46 min

    The Rapture Will Be Vertical | Noah Smith

    Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

  • October 15 · 1 hr 14 min

    Surrendering to Reverse-Optimization

    Lukas and Saila talk about everything from the philosophy of saying “I suppose,” cardio mishaps, Costco obsession, and the absurdity of livestreaming everyday life to crypto jealousy, resentment toward data centers, and the importance of admitting your insecurities. They explore AI-generated websites, movie criticism, social media hot takes, political opinions, crypto trading patterns, lawyers and professional gatekeeping, and the strange economics of modern white-collar work. They also discuss podcast sponsorships, New Hampshire, unconventional firearm designs, Chinese memecoin culture, Korean speculation, and the growing fear of being financially left behind.TimestampsSponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Crypto, China, and lawyers: Cold open00:40 Welcome and the philosophy of “I suppose”02:10 Parenting, creativity, and vague answers05:05 Cardio, concussions, and instant karma06:45 Walking desks and Costco livestreams09:40 Costco bargains and “father brain”11:10 Shrimp deals and imaginary sponsorships13:00 Crypto sellouts and AI-generated hype15:00 The jealousy behind anti-crypto sentiment16:15 Data centers and hidden motives19:00 Just admit you’re insecure22:00 Eye-drop ads and the podcast’s female audience23:50 AI websites and podcast branding27:10 The Joker, moviegoers, and film criticism32:10 Hot takes on videos nobody watched35:00 Contrarianism as a podcasting strategy36:05 What even counts as a “take”?37:10 Protest interviews and borrowed opinions38:20 Retroactive product placement and ads41:00 Crypto price patterns versus astrology44:00 Why lawyers are unavoidable45:05 Legal billing and Claude-generated invoices48:00 Piracy lawsuits as subscription sales49:00 Eye doctors and contact lens prescriptions50:00 Bankers versus financial advisers51:00 The hidden cost of sitting on cash52:20 Resenting products people actually need56:00 Can a flooring store sponsor a podcast?59:15 The podcast that helped sell a New Hampshire house01:04:00 Kel-Tec and unconventional folding firearms01:07:00 Bullpups and the one-gun fantasy01:08:00 What if podcasts were nothing but ads?01:09:00 Why China missed the memecoin craze01:10:00 American and Chinese investors hype each other01:11:00 South Korea’s speculative trading culture01:12:00 Leverage, risk, and financial FOMO01:13:00 The fear of falling behind financially01:14:10 Closing thoughts and outro

  • October 8 · 2 hr 48 min

    Ideological Reflexivity | Oliver Traldi

    Lukas and Saila talk about political ideology, sacred beliefs, cultural shifts, and the changing nature of social norms with Oliver. They explore the rise and decline of wokeness, political tribalism, status competition, the influence of social media on democracy, and why people change their political allegiances. The conversation also covers academic freedom and tenure, modern dating and relationships, AI alignment and existential risk, the future of writing and journalism, AI-generated content, and why universities function more as credentialing institutions than places of learning.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Oliver: https://x.com/olivertraldi00:00 Writing a book with AI and the urban-rural divide03:00 What causes sudden changes in social norms?06:00 Fraud, reputation and changing standards09:00 Generational grievances and historical injustice12:00 Sacred beliefs and how people defend them15:00 Where do sacred beliefs come from?18:00 Political betrayal and identity21:00 Why shrinking movements become more extreme24:00 Wokeness, fashion and cultural trend cycles27:00 Politics as a popularity contest30:00 Modernity and the disappearance of shared reality33:00 Are ordinary people actually ideological?36:00 Why political polling can be misleading39:00 The illusion of precision in social science42:00 Democracy, populism and political language45:00 Blaming capitalism for everything48:00 Why political movements feel powerful and powerless51:00 The uncomfortable consequences of winning54:00 Influencers, politicians and the power of content57:00 Democracy, monarchy and social media01:00:00 Why music producers matter more than artists01:03:00 Political entrepreneurs and ideological movements01:06:00 Why people abandon their political tribes01:09:00 Crime, enforcement and changing social norms01:12:00 Incentives, policing and institutional loyalty01:15:00 Why intellectual theories rarely produce practical advice01:18:00 Does academic tenure actually protect free speech?01:21:00 The trade-offs of working in academia01:24:00 Academic perks and professor-student relationships01:27:00 Tenure, risk-taking and personal freedom01:30:00 Regulating relationships and the legacy of MeToo01:33:00 Why modern dating resembles online shopping01:36:00 Smartphones, relationships and declining fertility01:39:00 AI, life extension and the future of humanity01:42:00 AI doomers and the limits of existential risk arguments01:45:00 Why nobody agrees on what AI alignment means01:48:00 AI safety careers and avoiding responsibility01:51:00 Risk tolerance and attitudes toward human extinction01:54:00 Personal brands and the future of journalism01:57:00 Why technology destroys the value of media02:00:00 When people will work for free02:03:00 AI as the ultimate personal librarian02:06:00 What skills do we lose when AI does our thinking?02:09:00 Researching an entire book with AI02:12:00 AI writing, obesity research and information overload02:15:00 The strange language patterns of AI writing02:18:00 Em dashes, semicolons and detecting AI text02:21:00 AI creativity and bizarre literary metaphors02:24:00 Why knowing something is AI-generated changes its value02:27:00 Substack, readership and writing for yourself02:30:00 The best and worst parts of being an academic02:33:00 Is college about education or getting a job?02:36:00 Why credentials matter more than learning02:39:00 Prestige, compensation and alternative credentials02:42:00 The University of Austin and the economics of education02:45:00 Final reflections and where to find Oliver02:48:00 Outro and audience questions

  • October 1 · 1 hr 25 min

    The Diminishing Returns on Telling the Truth

    Lukas and Saila talk about absurdly long game release timelines, predicting movies before they exist, why “deny, deny, deny” and strategic dishonesty increasingly go unpunished, AI safety messaging and media incentives, technological pessimism and Ted Kaczynski’s critique of modernity, LASIK and cosmetic surgery, American healthcare and tort law, Social Security and voting incentives, and Roy Lee’s viral marketing strategy.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why “deny, deny, deny” works00:43 Announcing games years before release03:02 Half-Life 3 and rating unreleased movies06:00 Predicting movies before they even exist07:32 Race-science jokes, engines and deer09:47 Belle Delphine bathwater and false advertising12:10 Turning lawsuits into marketing13:00 Spending habits and secret purchases14:33 Why lying can work forever16:36 The post-manners society17:52 Politics, academia and normalized dishonesty20:43 AI watermarks and hidden detection23:41 The AI safety media machine25:13 Manufactured narratives vs latent demand28:31 Techno-optimism and the “magic supercomputer”30:27 Technology as a monkey’s paw33:18 High IQ, cities and retreating from technology35:30 Writing letters to Ted Kaczynski37:52 Usury, sponsors and hiring your critics40:26 AI doom messaging and crying wolf43:34 Safety theater and AI regulation45:38 Cardio, modern life and accidental exercise48:42 LASIK fears and surgical complications51:07 Superstition vs materialism53:11 Personality tests and positive affirmations55:55 Rome, travel and livestreaming everything57:53 Fear of AI and safety-industry incentives01:00:11 Mechanistic interpretability, LARPing and lying01:03:25 Podcast redesign and resistance to change01:05:39 Surgery becomes precision engineering01:08:44 Fillers vs implants and facial movement01:11:45 The eyelid injury and surgical costs01:15:39 American healthcare and tort law01:18:29 Healthcare limits and boomer Social Security01:21:08 Taxation, voting and political incentives01:22:20 Roy Lee and viral startup marketing01:24:57 Outro

  • September 24 · 2 hr 42 min

    The Audience Problem | Matthew Peterson

    Matthew Peterson, founder of FORUM and The American Mind, joins Lukas and Saila to discuss the fights inside the Trump coalition, why Silicon Valley hasn't won over the populists, and what right-wing media would look like if it cared about building things. They get into FORUM's Joe Lonsdale–Joe Allen debate, the resentment behind the data-center backlash, AI as empowerment or centralized control, privacy, regulation, and whether the government ends up with its own frontier lab. The conversation also covers Peterson's route through academia, Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze; corporate sponsors and schizophrenic mortgages; winning elections versus posting based edits; AI overemployment reality TV; edgelord MrBeast; political dating shows; audience capture; the management theory of chads and autists; Trump and Elon; Alex Jones as a symbol of vitality; what think tanks actually do; AI reviving a real liberal arts education; capitalism with American characteristics; and why young people want something worth building Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Bonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Matthew Peterson: https://x.com/docMJP Timestamps: 00:00 — Saila would like less privacy 00:32 — Welcome and sponsors 01:55 — FORUM and the arguments the right needs to have 05:03 — Silicon Valley donations and the protection racket 09:13 — Inside FORUM: Yarvin, Lonsdale, and Joe Allen 13:55 — Where does the right stand on AI? 17:06 — The data-center backlash isn't really about water 20:33 — Unemployment, coronavirus 7, and AI's sales pitch 23:58 — Centralized AI and the cost of private compute 26:30 — Does anyone actually care about privacy? 30:08 — AI training data and the copyright argument 33:17 — The cloud got expensive; hardware got interesting 34:49 — Would AI regulation just create more middlemen? 38:55 — The government's inevitable frontier lab? 42:20 — Government competence, the CIA, and DOGE 47:55 — From academia to Claremont, New Founding, and Blaze 53:25 — Frontier and the business of right-wing media 58:02 — Advertising agencies, Bud Light, and the corporate bubble 1:01:11 — ICE videos and the politics of bad optics 1:04:29 — Do you want to win or post based edits? 1:05:45 — AI overemployment: the reality show 1:08:54 — Edgelord MrBeast takes over the galaxy 1:09:55 — Political dating shows and ideological trigger words 1:12:28 — Stop dissenting and start building 1:15:33 — Why media is illegible to capital 1:20:37 — AI local reporting and the missing content aggregator 1:25:17 — Audience capture and the cost of going viral 1:28:15 — Hollywood has lost the mandate of heaven 1:31:39 — Celebrity worship and ironic photos 1:37:59 — Why the sycophantic commenter is your favorite 1:40:49 — The management theory of chads and autists 1:45:37 — Finding talent instead of protecting your job 1:48:50 — Alex Jones as a symbol of life and vitality 1:55:11 — What do think tanks actually do? 2:01:00 — Don't meet your heroes; they might want to sleep with you 2:04:24 — Tenure and the collapse of professional prestige 2:07:35 — AI teachers and the return of a real education 2:11:17 — The Iliad, monster porn, and the death of the middle 2:13:08 — Learn to code meets the automation of bullshit jobs 2:14:53 — AI doing your taxes justifies the data centers 2:16:38 — What if bureaucracy is the point? 2:18:13 — Capitalism with American characteristics 2:20:07 — Tariffs, the Homestead Act, and economics beyond GDP 2:24:36 — The anti-Bush hippie who wanted lower taxes 2:28:24 — Hamilton Society debates and the big red button 2:30:00 — Politicians need live audience feedback 2:33:38 — Zoomers, public service, and the broken system 2:39:08 — The imaginary internet villain versus actual people

  • September 17 · 1 hr 10 min

    The Problem with Knowing Things

    Lukas and Saila talk about product reviews and Costco bulk buying, AI safety and political burnout, Middle East news and the Lindsay Clancy trial, how people evaluate medicine and scientific evidence, podcast analytics and consumer behavior, crypto and the Clarity Act, jury trials, cooking, sun exposure, fishing, and the very different cultures of YouTube and X.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/ Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 00:00 Why going outside is dangerous01:12 Product reviews, sponsors and bad products03:03 Reviewing the Tri Blue scalp cleanser05:53 Scalp tension and “one big problem”07:45 Costco, bulk buying and natural soap11:18 Water filtration and optimizing showers12:17 How upgrades ruin ordinary experiences14:09 Why online debates have become exhausting16:35 AOC, Rubio and “serious” politicians18:44 Political burnout and the Iran war20:01 Houthis, Saudi forces and Middle East absurdity21:51 The Lindsay Clancy juror controversy24:20 Starbucks, normies and “touch grass”25:41 What normal people think about AI safety27:20 Anthropic, IPO incentives and AI spending28:31 Regulatory capture and AI safety scares30:19 Why actionable topics beat grand debates31:33 Calls to action, subscriptions and selling knowledge32:00 Tai Lopez, books and knowledge LARPing33:08 Timeless episodes vs current-event content34:13 Crypto gains, watches and better uses of money36:31 Status anxiety and expensive watches37:35 Surgery reviews and fear of rare outcomes40:00 User error, contraception and bad statistics41:51 Mechanisms vs correlation in modern science43:30 Trusting doctors and personalized judgment45:13 Shorter episodes, retention and production value46:59 Consumers don’t know what they want47:57 Kickstarter and the reversal of customer risk49:57 Anonymity, the penguin and online identity50:49 Crypto markets and the Clarity Act52:18 Jury trials and demographic incentives53:30 Searching for better “normie” topics54:55 Chicken cooking and simple food57:32 Costco carrots and the anti-outdoors bit59:37 Sun exposure and avoiding peak UV01:00:30 Fishing as prehistoric gambling01:02:00 Fishing regulars and local expertise01:04:02 Fun, short-form video and calls to action01:05:21 YouTube comments vs X01:06:55 “Heaven banning” and platform culture01:08:02 Big Chicken, sponsors and post-credit bits

  • September 10 · 1 hr 38 min

    Game Theory Optimal

    Welcome back to the Plausibly Deniable Experience. Lukas and Saila enter Soycast mode to reconstruct cooking from first principles, prove that bachelor slop is game-theory optimal, and explain why sharing food with roommates produces resentment instead of consumer surplus. We investigate the hidden fat tax, nuclear-powered dishwasher cabinets, and whether the government should pay your grandmother to cook for you.Then: why Twitter got boring, quote-tweet parasitism, synthetic OpenAI equity, and corporate jobs that have quietly become pensions. Doug Leone’s homelessness story becomes a debate about whether a long layover counts as adversity, Lukas gets trapped in an American Airlines Groundhog Day, and Saila discovers that “you can just do things” doesn’t necessarily extend to getting a menu. Also: getting a job as a self-improvement protocol, open-source software with a personal grudge, and the Balaji debate that never happened.If you didn’t need the money, what job would you do? Tell us in the comments.Sponsored by:Zcash: https://z.cashPolymarket: https://polymarket.comCitizenX: https://citizenx.comPassage Press: https://passage.pressBonus episodes + extended cuts: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comPlausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgSubmit a question: https://plausiblydeniable.org/ask/Follow the show: https://x.com/PD_EXPLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore00:00 Get a Job Theory 00:37 Sponsors and Welcome to the Soycast04:45 The Hidden Fat Tax07:59 Cooking From First Principles14:13 One Bowl, Zero Chores: Bachelor Economics23:44 Why Sharing Food Ruins Roommates27:28 Put the Grandmothers to Work32:30 Downvotes, Groupthink and the Death of Comments36:00 Engagement Farming and Synthetic OpenAI Equity40:47 The Fed vs. the Trading Algorithms42:39 Why Twitter Got Boring51:09 Riding With Biden and the Gerontocracy57:00 Kale, Dieting and Supermarket Discipline1:00:00 Boredom and Get a Job Theory1:01:56 The People Who Never Leave the House1:03:58 Incels, Age Gaps and America A vs. America B1:08:17 Doug Leone and the Homelessness Origin Story1:14:20 Trapped at DFW: Complaining on Twitter Works1:18:12 Sponsor Wishlist and Open Source With a Grudge1:20:30 The Balaji Debate That Never Happened1:22:49 The Best Job When You Don’t Need Money1:26:53 Video Calls, Insurance Sales and Plumber Sponsorships1:31:05 Dream Guests and Podcasting as an Endurance Sport1:33:34 Open Mics and Birthday Scams1:35:57 “You Can Just Do Things” vs. the Restaurant Hostess

  • September 3 · 2 hr 3 min

    AI News And The Manufactured Internet | Brian Chau

    Brian Chau has figured out how to use AI for journalism without producing AI slop: make the models read mountains of documents, then make humans write the story.Brian is the founder of Effort News, a publication using long-context AI to comb through federal databases, financial records, legal filings, and other giant piles of public data for stories everyone else missed. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain the refugee-resettlement grant investigation that convinced him to launch Effort, why ordinary journalism is often built around stories sources want “placed,” and what changes when you can query an entire government dataset instead.They also get into why frontier models are becoming better at math and worse at prose; Claude’s sycophancy; the different sources models inherently trust; taxpayer-funded NGOs; the funding behind anti-data-center and anti-AI activism; SBF’s Anthropic investment; Nick Shirley’s fraud counters; the EU’s attack on the open internet; zoning, NIMBYs, giant trucks, and “full-force centrism”; writing separate websites for humans and AIs; why Brian’s p(doom) is negative; and whether Effort can become a new source of truth for the AI age.Guest:Effort News: https://effort.newsBrian Chau on X: https://x.com/brianchau57Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgBonus episodes + every new release by email: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.comLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Brian Chau: https://x.com/brianchau5700:00 — “Unaligned NGOs” and the anti-AI money trail01:06 — Welcome and Brian Chau02:01 — From machine learning to Effort News02:47 — Why AI writing keeps getting worse08:21 — Sycophancy and models that instantly agree with you09:37 — Which sources different models trust13:54 — How Effort News finds stories15:34 — The refugee-resettlement grant investigation25:00 — Data-first journalism versus planted stories27:08 — A million AI agents versus government databases28:58 — Data centers, unions, and political extortion31:29 — Why Brian is optimistic about the next 20 years33:19 — Europe, censorship, and the open internet37:30 — A white pill wrapped in black pills42:22 — Taxpayer-funded media and manufactured consensus44:10 — What does it mean for discourse to be “fake”?44:57 — Who funds anti-data-center activism?50:13 — Nick Shirley, fraud counters, and due diligence57:49 — Full-force centrism58:28 — Zoning, NIMBYs, and the affordability crisis1:04:04 — “Things can just be better”1:06:43 — How regulation made trucks enormous1:09:03 — Rebuilding a shared political reality1:13:02 — Tucker, Candace, and the right-wing influencer problem1:15:13 — How Effort News is funded1:16:00 — Who gets to shape AI’s values?1:17:09 — Writing one website for humans and another for AIs1:20:16 — How much of culture is manufactured?1:22:50 — The anti-AI funding network1:24:47 — SBF’s attempted crypto regulatory monopoly1:27:06 — Why Brian’s p(doom) is negative1:29:01 — The UK, France, and nuclear instability1:31:01 — The accidental founding of Effort News1:32:25 — Subscribers, B2B data, and a future newswire1:35:24 — Building a new source of truth1:39:29 — The Plausibly Deniable exclusive1:42:48 — Publicists, the Vice mafia, and founder-led media1:47:13 — Effort’s team and the disgusting CTA1:48:13 — Pre-made Twitter threads and “we read AI text”1:49:36 — Why real scoops sit next to total slop1:54:24 — Substack, data visualization, and $80,000 subscriptions2:02:23 — Final plugs and farewell

  • August 27 · 1 hr 33 min

    The Reindustrialization Of America | Jakob Diepenbrock

    Jakob Diepenbrock is running a hard-tech fund from El Segundo, backing young engineers building defense, manufacturing, robotics, energy, and other critical industries. He joins Lukas and Saila to explain how he skipped the credential ladder, built Discipulus Ventures, raised a fund by treating the process like a startup launch, and why Anduril’s breakout made defense tech the allocation everyone suddenly wanted. They also discuss cost-plus military contracts, drones versus soldiers, DJI’s domination of creator hardware, automated American textile factories, why humanoid robots are TikTok bait, insectoid factory machines, American-made peptides, ethanol and farm lobbies, machine financing at 30%, the tacit knowledge trapped in aging machinists, lowballing retiring boomers for obscure industrial monopolies, founder bench-press requirements, a Vegas magician who broke reality, CIA remote viewing, UFOs as Space Force marketing, medical isotope enrichment, Russian shell companies, and Germany’s reverse house-flipping bureaucracy. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press _________________________________ Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperience Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2Th Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505 Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com X: https://x.com/PD_EXP Jakob Diepenbrock: https://x.com/jakobdiepen Discipulus Ventures: https://www.discipulusventures.com Discipulus Cohort: https://www.discipulusventures.com/cohort Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Contact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.com Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and Sponsors 01:25 The Substack Payment Processor Is Finally Fixed 05:00 Turning the Podcast Into a Call to Action 07:08 Meet Jakob / Long-Distance Running Is Adult Self-Harm 09:19 El Segundo, Chamath, and the Defense-Tech Wave 11:17 Why Hard Tech Belongs in El Segundo 14:40 Starting a Fund Without Credentials 17:29 Venture Capital Is Crappy Beta 19:23 Raising a Fund Like a Startup 22:46 The 22-Year-Old Fund Manager Problem 24:36 Why Defense Tech Suddenly Became Cool 27:27 Elon, DOGE, and the $20 Million Missile 29:05 How Cost-Plus Contracting Broke Defense 30:00 The Defense Industry Is Smaller Than You Think 32:19 Political Risk for Government Contractors 35:17 Robotics Is the Next Bubble 36:29 Reindustrialization and the American-Made Premium 40:00 DJI, Drones, and the Captured Creator Economy 42:03 “Reindustrialized” Sweaters Made in China 43:47 Automated American Textiles 47:59 Humanoid Robots Are Boomer Bait 50:51 Insect Robots, Chemicals, and Ethanol 54:58 RFK’s Fitness Camps and American-Made Peptides 57:11 Bioreactors and Cheaper Drug Manufacturing 58:23 Lowballing Boomers for Strategic Companies 1:03:51 America Runs on Three Old Guys and a Notebook 1:08:37 Grants, Tariffs, and Supply-Chain Sovereignty 1:12:38 Wire Harnesses and 30% Machine Financing 1:17:08 El Segundo Culture and the Founder Bench Test 1:21:48 The Vegas Magician Who Broke Reality 1:24:49 CIA Remote Viewing, UFOs, and Space Force 1:28:33 Medical Isotopes and Russian Shell Companies 1:31:05 Germany’s Reverse House-Flipping Program 1:33:20 Mandatory Call to Action

  • August 20 · 2 hr 2 min

    The Bliss of Confirmation Bias — w/ Covfefe Anon

    Covfefe Anon returns to Plausibly Deniable to discuss the bliss of confirmation bias: how to engineer a viral take, why the edit may be the native medium of the 21st century, and why Angry Birds might be the most fascist movie ever made. Lukas, Saila and Covfefe review films they have not seen, explain why ironic criticism only makes its targets cooler, and consider whether Confirmation Bias is actually a better name for the podcast. The conversation also covers Ryan Gosling, Barbenheimer, James Bond, public-domain superheroes and AI remakes, Joe Biden and the death of the presidency, girl-avatar growth hacks, GPUs and matrix multiplication, phonics and grade inflation, business-school arbitrage, solo-podcast psychosis, radicalized wives, Twitter jannies, boomer game, hair-loss hopium, live-editing reality, friendship simulators, freedom of association, and the “blood diamonds attack” on crypto. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperience Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2Th Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505 Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com X: https://x.com/PD_EXP Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Covfefe Anon: https://x.com/CovfefeAnon Contact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.com Timestamps: 00:00 How to Engineer a Viral Take 01:02 Intro and Sponsors 01:48 Reviewing The Odyssey Without Watching It 05:15 Spoilers, Millennial Slop, and the Last Shared Culture 10:40 Meta-Level Lying, LARPing, and Intrigue-Maxing 17:24 Ryan Gosling’s Drive and the Single-Mom Concession 20:28 Barbenheimer and the Fascism of Angry Birds 24:03 Ryan Gosling vs. Angry Birds and the Communist Sequel 30:00 James Bond Rides Bitch 32:55 Public-Domain Superheroes and AI Remakes 34:11 Activated Charcoal and the Final Original Podcast Episode 37:12 Patrick Bateman, Starship Troopers, and Failed Irony 39:44 GEOBODEN and Joe Biden’s Final Act 42:58 The Presidency Is a Puppet Show 46:49 The Edit Is the Native Medium of the 21st Century 50:02 One Reader and Ninety-Nine Edit Watchers 52:09 How to Manufacture a Viral Take 54:46 The Girl-Avatar Growth Hack 58:39 GPUs Accidentally Built Superintelligence 1:02:14 Schooling, Phonics, and the End of Reading 1:07:11 Harvard Sells Credentials, Not Education 1:12:03 Business School, Bar Prep, and Clicker Arbitrage 1:15:36 Solo Podcasting Causes Mental Illness 1:17:34 Candace Owens and the Radicalized Wife 1:22:20 Men Lead, Women Follow, and Soy Turns You Into a Deer 1:24:09 Should We Rebrand as Confirmation Bias? 1:26:30 Emotional Programming and Mental Illness as a Defense 1:29:18 The Brain-Damage Loophole 1:33:27 Mom Gets Banned and Twitter Jannies Get Rich 1:38:22 Boomer Opportunity Stories and “May I Meet You?” 1:42:46 Hot-Girl Signaling, Hair-Loss Hopium, and Recycled Tweets 1:46:15 Broken Twitter Search, Outsourced Editing, and Dog Clickers 1:49:48 Live-Editing Reality and the Ex Who Shrunk Seven Inches 1:52:33 The Bliss of Confirmation Bias 1:55:08 Friendship Simulators and the Blood-Diamonds Attack 1:58:54 Freedom of Association and Memetic Stink 2:02:20 Outro: Should We Rebrand?

  • August 13 · 1 hr 33 min

    Coin-Flipping and the Linguistic Destruction of America

    America has become a coin-flipping economy—and the language we use now punishes anyone foolish enough to take things seriously. Lukas and Saila discuss AI psychosis and a 76,000-contact CRM, the fragmented B2B SaaS economy, travel-authorization scams, tax software, W-2 employment, lawsuits, bankruptcy, fake sponsorships, macro investors with monkey pictures, crypto traders posting inspirational corn after blowing up, and Costco gold arbitrage. Then they turn to the linguistic destruction of America: how “try-hard,” “glazing,” the IDGAF war, and “Woke One” made effort, admiration, accountability, and sincerity embarrassing. Also discussed: DeepSeek’s immigrant work ethic, aggressive safety razors, safe-horny culture, podcasters as male sex workers, the office LARP keeping the American economy alive, and why titles and thumbnails matter more than the podcast itself. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Watch, listen, and join the discussion: Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PlausiblyDeniableExperience Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3cU3OBRKnYGY7fyGF6x2Th Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/plausibly-deniable/id1866452505 Substack: https://plausiblydeniable.substack.com X: https://x.com/PD_EXP Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Contact: plausiblydeniableshow@gmail.com Timestamps: 00:00 “Try-Hard” Caused Societal Damage 01:06 Intro and Sponsors 01:17 Ransoming Product Recommendations 02:14 The Beach-House Food Disaster 04:32 AI Psychosis and the 76,000-Contact CRM 07:29 The B2B SaaS Lego Scam 09:11 Travel Authorization Scams and Private FCC Stings 16:31 Tax Software, Professional Cartels, and the W-2 21:02 There Are No Winners in Court 25:54 JD Vance, Europe, and Girlboss Diplomacy 29:35 Fake Sponsorships and the Prometheus Statue 33:13 Corporate Norwood Haircuts and Hormone Twitter 37:31 The Crypto Trader Starts Posting Corn 40:10 Gold, T-Bills, and Macro Monkey Pictures 46:17 The Coin-Flipping Economy 50:00 The Collective Psychic Force Field and the Big Kahuna 52:22 Outflanking Every Doomer by Going Further Back 53:51 Costco Gold Arbitrage 56:29 Shamelessness Is the Last Remaining Edge 57:49 Podcasters Are Male Sex Workers 1:00:54 Crypto Nostalgia and DeepSeek’s Work Ethic 1:03:00 The Aggressive Razor Ambush 1:06:19 Smoothness, Bottoming, and Safe Horny 1:09:44 “Woke One” and the Great Fugue State 1:15:16 The IDGAF War 1:16:20 How “Try-Hard” Damaged Civilization 1:18:40 The Office Worker Who Pretends to Be Busy 1:21:54 Your Breeding Fetish Came Free 1:22:43 “Glazing” and Linguistic Destruction 1:25:18 Titles, Thumbnails, and the Podcast Meta 1:29:47 The New Dating Gift Economy 1:31:48 Covfefe Anon Becomes a Permanent Houseguest 1:32:43 Childhood Obliviousness

  • August 6 · 1 hr 49 min

    Cooking With Arsenic: Why Cops Can't Shoot Pet Cats

    Lukas and Saila talk about an accidental arsenic-poisoning bonfire, frustrating hospital visits, bizarre injuries, the Hunter Biden–Nick Fuentes interview, Gavin Newsom, European manufacturing, aging, astrology and viral internet tools, gender and dating dynamics, rural life, bulk food, FBI encounters, online anonymity, food quality, RFK Jr., AI culture, Silicon Valley politics, cats, dogs, strange neighbors, self-deception and AI-assisted coding.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________

  • July 28 · 2 hr 19 min

    Private Money And The Norwood Supremacy: w/ Mert

    Mert Mumtaz, co-founder and CEO of Helius, joins Lukas and Saila to explain why privacy is crypto’s unfinished business, why he sees Zcash as encrypted—or “better”—Bitcoin, and what the Ironwood upgrade means for the Orchard pool, supply integrity, formal verification and quantum recoverability. They compare Zcash and Monero, unpack fungibility and tainted coins, discuss private finance on Solana and Helius’s work with Light Protocol, and examine why public blockchains risk becoming a global financial panopticon. The conversation then moves into AI, DeFi security, startup hiring, company names, Slavic relationship theory, emergency flowers and the collapse of straightforward Western dating. Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Passage Press: https://passage.press Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Mert: https://x.com/mert

  • July 23 · 2 hr 22 min

    The Libertarian Addiction to Losing and New Hampshire Nationalism: W/ Jeremy Kauffman

    Jeremy Kauffman joins the Positively Deniable Experience to explain how spending a few hours per week on libertarian politics helped throw the national Libertarian Party into chaos—and why he believes the Free State movement is succeeding in New Hampshire while the national party remains committed to losing. Jeremy recounts the rise of LBRY and Odysee, the SEC case that destroyed the company, crypto’s early generation of true believers, and the attempt to build a censorship-resistant alternative to YouTube. He also explains how the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire grew its X account from roughly 4,000 to 110,000 followers and why political influence increasingly flows from culture, social media, and status rather than policy papers. The conversation also covers the Free State Project, concentrating committed political minorities in one state, anonymity and trust online, New Hampshire’s economy and quality of life, prediction markets, AI-model bets, right-to-try laws, Lumina, biohacking, GLP-1s, housing, fertility, dating, Palantir, and the difference between efficient and ineffective government.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Jeremy: https://x.com/jeremykauffman

  • July 16 · 2 hr 12 min

    Escaping The IQ Shredder: with Spandrell

    Spandrell joins us to explain the “IQ Shredder”: how successful cities attract ambitious, intelligent people from across the world, place them into a hypercompetitive rat race, and then make it nearly impossible for them to reproduce. We discuss why fertility is collapsing across virtually every developed society, whether Israel has escaped the trend, why financial incentives have repeatedly failed, and what governments could realistically do to make family formation prestigious again. Spandrell also explains Bio-Leninism—his theory of how political systems recruit people with few alternatives and convert personal disadvantage into institutional loyalty. We connect it to the strange people selected by modern politics, why competent people tend to leave government, and why the political right struggles to build a durable machine. Later, we get into Spandrell’s life in Japan and China, how China changed under Xi Jinping, the decline of Twitter, the possible return of long-form blogging, Substack’s monetization advantage, Urbit’s future, AI-assisted development, and why Chinese companies can conquer entire industries without making their shareholders rich. https://spandrell.com Sponsored by: Polymarket: https://polymarket.com Zcash: https://z.cash CitizenX: https://citizenx.com Network Press: https://network.press _______________________________ Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org Extra content: https://substack.com/@plausiblydeniable Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore Spandrell: https://x.com/spandrell4

  • July 7 · 2 hr 9 min

    Nukes are Good For You, Actually

    The boys return under plague conditions to discuss why nukes might be less socially destructive than dating discourse, the ethics of height-maxxing children with growth hormone, the “ship it, I guess” approach to biohacking, trad life vs gene editing, Europe’s anti-AC death drive, Singapore, Yarvin, Nick Land, cats, prediction markets, bought accounts, World Cup confusion, and why prediction markets might just be manifestation markets.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore0:00 Nukes vs dating discourse1:26 Intro + sponsors2:46 Growth hormone for short kids6:00 Correcting disorders vs height-maxxing9:17 Short women, short sons, and dating math13:13 How tall is too tall?16:23 “Ship it, I guess” and gene editing18:35 Ted Kaczynski as meme philosopher23:15 The “media arena” problem25:04 Pets, illness, and irrational coping27:20 Copper peptides and supplement stupidity31:26 Remineralizing toothpaste and managing 100 trillion variables34:24 Everyone is a drug addict now38:36 When the Giga Chad opinion is dumb41:43 The green screen blanket era45:41 Nukes don’t matter theory47:59 Radiation poisoning vs modern dysfunction50:22 Compliment euphemisms and dating language53:51 The mommy-dommy tangent56:48 Do we actually want tradition?59:50 Trad or supercomputer gene editing1:02:18 Brian Johnson, rationality, and religion1:04:07 Europe’s heatwave and anti-AC ideology1:06:41 Singapore, order, and political realism1:12:00 America’s smaller future1:15:50 The K-shaped economy: AI or fraud1:18:23 Are consultants ready for AI?1:19:15 The singularity as a crash GIF1:21:00 Everything is destroyed and that’s beautiful1:25:24 Universal suffrage, kings, and weird politics1:27:03 Yarvin in San Francisco1:29:42 Becoming Nick Land1:32:22 Cats vs dogs1:38:54 Prediction markets and insider information1:42:17 Does paying people more change behavior?1:44:29 Americans pretending to care about soccer1:53:41 Millennials vs Zoomers1:56:26 Bought accounts and viral posting1:57:42 How much is an X account worth?1:59:23 Nikita, X payouts, and not drawing aggro2:02:21 2026 midterm markets2:05:30 Prediction markets as manifestation markets2:06:22 Bonus episodes on Substack2:07:42 Closing fever/green screen delirium

  • June 26 · 2 hr 2 min

    The Sensitive Old Man Problem

    Lukas and Saila return from San Francisco with takes on city discourse, scam calls, GLP-1s, power-law dating, Elon’s financial engineering, Polymarket political markets, RFK Jr., airport lounge arbitrage, SFO baggage purgatory, “not financial advice” disclaimers, pharmaceutical ads, weed, birth control, IQ-tiered libertarianism, and why every abstract argument eventually becomes a dating take.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore 0:00 San Francisco safety, homeless discourse, and wanting something to happen3:00 Scam calls, robocalls, lost wallets, and why phones are unusable5:44 Intro, sponsors, and the first Plausibly Deniable employee8:30 Listener demographics, microwaving your brain, and PD setup talk10:00 The muted Bachelorette split-screen strategy10:43 San Francisco in the Twitter bio and coastal-elite accusations14:50 “Just pay the taxes, bro” and California cope18:18 GLP-1s, hunger, desire, alcohol, and biological side effects20:15 Hunger receptors, carbs, sleep, and social calibration23:20 Power laws in wealth, cities, dating, and status25:54 Elon Musk liquidity, SpaceX shares, and private-market weirdness28:00 Elon’s all-stock empire and the fake-perfect S-130:00 Low-float IPOs, crypto traders, and baby’s first pump33:24 Grocery shopping as the ideal first date35:00 Public anthropology, grocery-store flirting, and social passes40:14 Sensitive young men, sensitive old men, and the empath/sociopath problem41:39 Polymarket: Vance, Rubio, Tucker, Nikki Haley, and GOP nominee odds47:30 Democrats as the party of rich white women50:07 RFK Jr., Kennedy aura, voice problems, and outsider politics53:00 ER dehydration, DIY electrolyte ratios, Sprite, and Gatorade56:00 Why every abstract argument becomes a dating take57:37 Garden leave, severance, and explaining tech jobs to normal people58:48 Tracing Woodgrains, disclaimers, and “not financial advice”1:02:35 Pharmaceutical ads, WebMD sales pitches, and legal disclaimers1:03:59 Birth control, weed, fertility, and long-term health tradeoffs1:07:21 Libertarianism, paternalism, and unlocking drugs by IQ score1:07:58 The IQ-tiered drunk-driving proposal1:10:00 Alcohol, reaction time, weed concentrates, and useful hangovers1:11:30 Tracing Woodgrains, furries, lawyers, and credibility laundering1:14:40 Yudkowsky’s meme glasses and hostile interviews1:15:08 Guest screening calls and why podcasting is harder than people think1:18:03 Airport lounges, Amex economics, salmon, broccoli, and disgust-response flexing1:19:56 Dessert etiquette, eating disorders, and what not to say1:20:26 SFO baggage purgatory: Delta, United, and no actual ticket1:24:43 Explaining modern culture to boomers1:25:00 Escorts, dating, and embarrassing relationship structures1:28:56 Situationships as straight lavender marriages1:30:12 The life-checklisting meme1:33:21 GLP-1 relationship study and “relationshiped persons”1:35:04 Cohabitation, relationship definitions, and survey weirdness1:39:30 Podcasting as marriage theory1:40:32 The “Obsession” movie discourse1:45:12 Work mode, meetings, and lying about when you have to leave1:50:08 Friend-zoned men, bears, and male slave friends1:51:32 Girls in tech, attention complaints, and bad-faith incentives1:55:29 Allowing people dignity in relationships1:55:46 Instagram models, humiliation, and basic partner etiquette1:59:01 Twitter likes, relationships, and never getting too comfortable2:00:17 Twitter personas vs real-life personalities2:00:51 The new Chinese AI model, ZAI, and Lukas victory-lapping2:01:49 Closing

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