31: Fake Polls Fooled the Media: Can You Trust a Single Number Before the Midterms?
With less than two weeks until Election Day, Kurt Bardella and Erin Maguire skip the polls and follow the money and the early vote. The DGA puts $1 million behind David Jolly in Florida, JB Pritzker writes a seven-figure check for Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, and Texas early voting is off to a strong start. Erin explains why Republicans aren't picking up the phone for pollsters and why, at this point, campaigns aren't convincing voters, they're driving them. Plus: is James Talarico closing strong in Texas, and how Abdul El-Sayed took on the attacks about his family in Michigan. Then, family ties: use them or lose them. Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother has crossed into group chats, and JD Vance is telling Republicans to stop whining about it. Kurt and Erin debate when a candidate's family is fair game. Last, the state of polling in 2026: a pollster that admits it made its numbers up, The New York Times pulling its surveys from the tracker, and what newsrooms should do before they report the next poll. And in Left Field Lunacy, the Jacksonville Jaguars will let fans spend eternity at the stadium. What do you think about the Acton ad, or public polling? Leave a comment and find us on social at Party Lines. LINKS FROM THIS EPISODE Florida Phoenix: Democratic Governors Association investing $1 million to support David Jolly https://floridaphoenix.com/2026/10/20/democratic-governors-association-investing-1-million-to-support-david-jolly/ AJC: Billionaire Democrats rush to Keisha Lance Bottoms' aid in final stretch https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/pritzker-bloomberg-donate-keisha-lance-bottoms-georgia-governor/ Michigan Public: Rogers-El-Sayed debate gets hostile in pivotal U.S. Senate race https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-10-09/rogers-el-sayed-debate-gets-hostile-as-candidates-clash-in-pivotal-us-senate-race CBS News: Ohio governor's race takes ugly turn with Ramaswamy ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ohio-governor-amy-acton-mother-ramaswamy/ Springfield News-Sun: JD Vance tells Republicans to "stop whining" about the Ramaswamy ad https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/local/jd-vance-tells-republicans-to-stop-whining-about-ramaswamy-ad-with-acton-s-estranged-mother/article_c66de25e-fc7f-5011-b27b-86e48a6f05d2.html Mediaite: National polling company admits it's totally fake https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/national-polling-company-admits-its-totally-fake-crows-it-was-far-too-easy-to-get-major-media-outlets-to-bite/ KATU: Polling firm closes after releasing fake election surveys for a "social experiment" https://katu.com/news/nation-world/polling-firm-closes-after-releasing-fake-election-surveys-for-social-experiment-los-angeles-mayoral-race-wisconsin-democratic-gubernatorial-primary-karen-bass-francesca-hong Mediaite: Francesca Hong concedes after razor-thin Wisconsin primary https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/democratic-socialist-francesca-hong-concedes-after-falling-agonizingly-short-in-razor-thin-wisconsin-primary/ Action News Jax: Jaguars fans can reserve a permanent place in the new stadium, even after death https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/forever-teal-jags-fans-can-reserve-permanent-place-new-stadium-even-after-death/JEEYTCKEMBCEVLNORUOPR6UCLI/ CHAPTERS 0:00 Less than two weeks to go 0:33 Follow the early vote and the money 1:34 The DGA bets on David Jolly 1:47 Pritzker backs Keisha Lance Bottoms 2:05 Pritzker, Beshear and the 2028 shadow race 2:44 Texas early voting 3:11 Republican malaise and the base play 4:09 Why Republicans aren't talking to pollsters 5:07 Driving voters, not convincing them 5:59 Is Talarico closing strong? 6:37 El-Sayed takes the attacks head on 7:38 Family ties: use them or lose them 7:56 Ramaswamy's ad with Amy Acton's mother 9:06 Vance: politics is a tough business 10:29 When family turns on a candidate 12:20 Fair game or hands off? 13:15 Will this follow JD Vance? 14:32 The state of polling in 2026 15:42 Silly season: real polls vs. garbage polls 16:22 Why people trust prediction markets 17:10 The Wedgewood fake polls 18:44 Where are the media's polling standards? 20:00 When the polls miss: El-Sayed and Francesca Hong 21:02 Only report polls you commission 23:31 Did bad polling cost Haley Stevens? 23:55 Left Field Lunacy: rest in peace at the Jaguars' stadium 26:48 Wrap and happy birthday, Kurt