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Multipolarity

Multipolarity

Charting The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order

Philip Pilkington is an unorthodox macroeconomist.

Andrew Collingwood is an equally skeptical journalist.

Lately, both have realised that - post-Ukraine, post-Afghanistan withdrawal - the old, unipolar, US-led world order is in its death throes.

In its wake, something new is being born. But what shape will that take? That will depend on a combustible combination of economics and geopolitics; trade and military muscle.

Each week, our duo take three off-radar news stories and explain how each is shaping our multipolar reality.

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  • 27 episodes
  • weekly
  • Avg 48 min
  • English

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Episodes 27

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  • S1 · E207
    Thursday · 52 min

    Call Time At The Casino: Europe's Bad Bets Come Due

    Lately, European leaders seem panicked. By the beginning of July, the EU had begun acting in an increasingly assertive, confident way. On China – they announced new anti-dumping, anti-subsidy measures. On Ukraine, they pushed forward with plans to release even more materiel to the front. On the question of democracy and centralisation, they were happy to roll over the Romanians, and put their thumb on the scale in Hungary. Now it’s call time at the casino. The cards are being turned over – and once they lose their shirts, the continent’s leaders are still going to need the parking deposit to pay their way out of the building. A trade war with China. America stepping back. An increasingly unstable game of missile ping pong with Russia. An energy shock coming up the pike. Winter in a few weeks. Ursula & co now find themselves sitting amidst a perfect storm of bad bets. How will they ride this out? As the security situation weakens, will Europe revert to ‘securitisation’ to bolster its faltering power? *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other. Twitter Patreon Substack

  • S1 · E206
    September 17 · 1 hr 24 min

    The Irish Kraken Awakens: British Interests After American Power

    Donald Trump’s year of smashing things continues apace. Iran, Greenland, Canada… At some point, there is no more china in the shop for the bull to break. But not yet. With his comments that he wants to see a united Ireland, the President has jabbed the Special Relationship in the eye, kneed it in the balls, and burst its spleen. Breaking up the territorial integrity of an ally? Bad sport, old chap. He wanted to teach Britain a lesson, but as eighty years of diplomacy crumples in a heap, Trump may soon come to understand the difference between heavy leverage and making a sworn enemy. Or he may not. From the poodle Blair to the sticky end of Anthony Eden, British Prime Ministers have always yielded to the jesses of American power. In return, they have been allowed to ride shotgun in the global order. So what if that soft solicitousness went away? As Britain is loosed from the unipolar order, we’ll be assessing the full damage - from The Falkands to the Balkans, British interests are about to become extremely interesting. In a special edition, we’ll be spending the whole hour redrawing the map as it could be, if Greece and Rome go their own ways. *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other. Twitter Patreon Substack

  • S1 · E205
    September 10 · 1 hr 9 min

    Super Size Me II: Malcom Kyeyune on The Burger Theory of History, Revisited

    Super-Size Me II. 140 episodes ago, Malcolm Kyeyune launched a piece of verbal artillery into the mess hall of online discourse. The Burger Theory of History. It quickly became one of our most quoted episodes. The Burger Theory is the idea that, since the pandemic of 2020, the rising costs of basic necessities is feeding a malaise that is eating into our society. The sense not that we are in yet another cost of living crisis. But that the system itself is failing. Much like it did in late-80s Russia, when Soviet citizens were confronted with the Big Mac, and knew that their Leninist world view simply could not stack up. A few years later, the economic Iron Curtain truly tumbled when Mikhail Gorbachev did an advert for Pizza Hut. Now, as the Hormuz crisis after the Covid crisis after the Ukraine crisis once again strangulates the delicately balanced trading system of the West, he’s ordering a second helping – with fries. I’ll be explaining what the USS Rustbucket, aka the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, tells us about the quickening tempo of that unravelling. And I’ll be explaining why he’s right. The Golden Arches are the new Twin Towers, folks. Strap in, let’s roll… *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington's bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other. Twitter Patreon Substack

  • S1 · E204
    September 3 · 45 min

    Special Edition: The Horizons

    September is here. As the calendar page tugs away, the madness of the dog days of summer blows away. The madness of the autumn is upon us. With the Pina Colada mix in the recycling bin, the sense of happy impermanence is over, and all the bills we’ve rung up are about to fall due. Now, with the put-upon air of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s lawyers, we’re counting the cost. Taking the medium-range view. Going through the key agenda items that will see us out of 2026. Item one: Sort out Iran. Two - Figure out who’s scamming US Treasury Yields 3. Count the cost of the US midterms Number 4. Draw a bead on European energy policy as the frost starts to roll south. 5. Get inside the Russia Game. 6. Unpick America’s secondary sanctions on China Finally, number 7 – throw the Donroe Doctrine in a skip. Yes it’s a wardrobe’s worth of homework falling on us at once - across a 98 minute show. And half of all that is here for all of our free subscribers. The other half is behind the paywall. That’s right: in a complex and ever-changing world, if you want to stay half-informed, remain a free sub. If you want to see the whole of the moon - sign up for the pods-only on Patreon. Or pods plus our lively Substack output on, where else, Substack.

  • S1 · E203
    August 27 · 11 min

    Two Audio Essays: A Japanese Unwinding vs An Iranian Tightening

    Two audio essays, one smouldering fuse. This week, Philip Pilkington takes on a financial cascade emerging from the Japanese Bond situation. Ever since its one-day bond market heart attack in March, Japan has been trapped: it can't raise rates, it can't let the yen fall, so it has sold the very US Treasuries that hold the US system together. Knowing how perilous things are, in the background, Scott Besent is trying to send in support. But this Wizard of Oz is himself running out of tricks. And when these fail, much like the 2011 sovereign debt crisis, there will be other marks ready to be hit – starting with Britain. Meanwhile, the Japanese bond crisis began with the spike in oil prices. Now, Andrew Collingwood asks how the Iran War is about to be extruded through the gravitational field of US domestic politics. To him, what looks like a stalemate is actually profoundly unstable, hinging on a unique paradox: the more success America has in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, the more likely Iran is to escalate. Of course, this week is pay week – only available to subscribers. So you’ll need to pony up to get it. If you want to support our work, you can tip $8 a month on Patreon. Or get the podcast, plus our paywalled analysis, including Philip Pilkington’s bi-monthly column, and Andrew’s brilliant weekly Multipolarity Brief – for $12, all in. Simply go to Patreon or Substack, search for us, and do the necessary. You’ll also have access to our deep archive of over 25 paywalled episodes spanning the three years of the show.

  • S1 · E202
    August 20 · 1 hr 6 min

    Multipolarity Dialogues: AI and the future of warfare with Steve Hsu

    Multipolarity Dialogues is a series of special multipolarity interviews that scan the geopolitical horizon. We talk to some of the sharpest analysts, thinkers, and experts about how they see the world beyond the visible edge of the geopolitical. In this episode, Steve Hsu. Where to start with Steve? He’s a member of that tiny sliver of humans who have managed to make significant contributions to multiple fields of academia, including quantum physics, dark energy, and computational genomics. Outside academia, Steve has founded multiple startups and has been involved in AI and information security. He's also one of the most prominent of the Silicon Valley adjacent public intellectuals. Tonight we'll be tapping the capricious brain of this polymath to address two of the questions most pertinent to the future of American Power. AI and the future of warfare. Can America beat China in the AI race? What are the differences in the approaches the two are taking beyond the well-known cost differential? What are the various likely scenarios for the outcome of this highest of high stakes versions of the VHS versus Betamax race, and what does it all mean for humanity? Meanwhile, how have cheap drones and missiles really changed the nature of warfare? And do they spell the end for the two century long era of maritime powers dominating the world?

  • S1 · E201
    August 13 · 51 min

    The Pod To End All Pods: Part 3

    Coming up this week, last week, and the week before… A massive multi-part episode. The world is shifting in unpredictable ways. The old order is with the death doula right now. The new one has yet to go through lamaze class. The only thing that can save us is podcasting. More of it. Longer. Harder. More esoteric. More riffs on the Thirty Years War. Bigger tangents into the exact mechanics of USAF recruitment in Tallahassee. As our old sense-making apparatus breaks down, as the world on which unipolarity once relied goes tits up, we’ve decided it’s time to raise our eyes from the trough of news-analysis, and think about the big picture now emerging from the Persian Gulf. The Pod to End All Pods is a three episode collaboration between Multipolarity, and our two most requested guests – Malcolm ‘Juche Respecter’ Kyeyune - and Amerikanets, the anonymous Substacker who uncovered the implausibility of Trump’s Venezuela Raid. The results were incendiary and interminable. They spoke for three hours — which we’ve decided to carve into three separate episodes. Two weeks ago, in the first episode, we spoke about the Air War — the debaseification thesis, as laid out by Amerikanets. In other words, how Iranians are systematically denying the US its regional airbases by killing personnel and hitting assets on the tarmac. Last week, in part two, we got round to The Systemic-War Thesis. The idea that, like World War I, or the Napoleonic Wars, the Hormuz Crisis has become a conflict that pulls in every actor within a closed system — and only stops at mutual physical exhaustion. Now, this week, The Return of the King, we take on Europe, America and the political fallout. Is the old world about to be dragged into this, much against their will? All this and more, as the crisis takes shape. They said it would all be over by Christmas — and this show just about will be. This is the Pod To End All Pods. The story so far.

  • S1 · E200
    August 6 · 52 min

    The Pod To End All Pods: Part 2

    The world is shifting in unpredictable ways. The old order dies of smoke inhalation in a dumpster fire. The new one has yet to be lifted out by C-Section. The only thing that can save us is podcasting. More of it. Longer. Harder. More esoteric. More riffs on the Thirty Years War. Bigger tangents into the exact mechanics of USAF recruitment in Tallahassee. As our old sense-making apparatus breaks down, as the world on which unipolarity once relied goes tits up, we’ve decided it’s time to raise our eyes from the trough of news-analysis, and think about the big picture now emerging from the Persian Gulf. The Pod to End All Pods is a three episode collaboration between Multipolarity, and our two most requested guests – Malcolm ‘Juche Respecter’ Kyeyune - and Amerikanets, the anonymous Substacker who uncovered the implausibility of Trump’s Venezuela Raid. The results were incendiary and interminable. They spoke for three hours — which we’ve decided to carve into three separate episodes. Last week, in the first episode, we spoke about the Air War — the debaseification thesis, as laid out by Amerikanets. In other words, how Iranians are systematically denying the US its regional airbases by killing personnel and hitting assets on the tarmac. How the Reaper drones that put the fear of god into America’s enemies in the 2010s are now undergoing their own holocaust in the skies over Iran. This week, in part two, we get round to The Systemic-War Thesis. The idea that, like World War I, or the Napoleonic Wars, the Hormuz Crisis has become a conflict that pulls in every actor within a closed system — and only stops at mutual physical exhaustion. Finally, next week, in part three, we’ll take on Europe, America and the political fallout. Is the old world about to be dragged into this, much against their will? All this and more, as the crisis takes shape. They said it would be over by Christmas — and this show just about will be.

  • S1 · E199
    July 30 · 54 min

    The Pod To End All Pods: Part 1

    Coming up this week and next week and the week after… A massive multi-part episode. The world is shifting in unpredictable ways. The old order dies of smoke inhalation in a dumpster fire. The new one has yet to be lifted out by C-Section. Iran, it is now clear, represents the smouldering conflagration that will consume US power. As its strength is sapped, this lumbering giant will make ever-poorer decisions. Bad money will be poured after good. The Falcon F-16 cannot hear the falconer. Which way is up will become ever harder to discern. In the face of this spinning compass, our sense-making apparatus is as useless as a cavalry charge in the Ardennes. But there is one doomsday weapon that could yet unscramble our circuits. One that has only recently become known to science. The Pod to End All Pods is a three episode collaboration between Multipolarity, and our two most requested guests – Malcolm ‘Juche Respecter’ Kyeyune - and Amerikanets, the anonymous Substacker who uncovered the implausibility of Trump’s Venezuela Raid. We’ve assembled this little RAND Corporation, and told them to solve for the next twelve months — and the next ten years. The results were incendiary and interminable. They spoke for three hours — which we’ve decided to carve into three separate podcasts. In the first episode, this week, we’re going to talk about the Air War — the debaseification thesis, as laid out by Amerikanets. The Iranians are systematically denying the US its regional airbases by killing personnel and hitting assets on the tarmac. The Reaper drones that put the fear of god into America’s enemies in the 2010s are now undergoing their own holocaust in the skies over Iran. Meanwhile, American generals are struggling to understand what the target even is — in a KPI culture, they’re running out of targets, and pushing towards more and more abstruse success metrics. This is a war being run without a purpose. Then, In part two, we get round to The Systemic-War Thesis. Like World War I, like the Thirty Years War, or the Napoleonic Wars, this has become a conflict that pulls in every actor within a closed system — and only stops at mutual physical exhaustion. A point only underlined by the Saudis’ decision to hit Iranian targets this week. Finally, in part three, we take on Europe, America and the political fallout. Is the old world about to be dragged into this, much against their will? Given the spate of fires at EU refineries and munitions plants, are we on explosion watch? All this and more, as the July Crisis takes shape. They said it would be over by Christmas — and this show just about will be. This is The Pod To End All Pods.

  • S1 · E198
    July 23 · 1 hr 5 min

    All Your Base Are Belong To Us, The People’s Carcrash, Our Democracy

    You’ve heard of de-Baathification? Now what about de-baseification? The gradual chipping back of US strategic assets in the Gulf as each in turn comes under pressure from drone and rocket fire… till only a handful of super-bases remain. Iran’s president says country is in ‘full-scale war’ after an expansion of US attacks. They’ve struck US interests in Bahrain, Kuwait - and the Houthis are blockading Saudi ports. The US was unlikely to win this war - but now it seems it could actually lose it. Meanwhile… 14%. 18%. 18% Year-on-year sales drops at Volkswagen, and Audi and Porsche, which it owns, respectively. Germany’s biggest auto maker is in free fall, with warnings of 50 000 job cuts. But Chinese competition is only half the problem. Finally, the main public TV station has been shut down overnight. The President has been summarily dismissed by a dubious constitutional amendment. And the opposition leader has been banned from standing for re-election. The new leader parades round in Mao suits, making agit prop video tours of the former regime’s residences to stoke up his base. As the airwaves breathe static, will the EU send troops to restore democracy in the little-known far-off nation of Hungary?

  • S1 · E197
    July 16 · 44 min

    Iran: The Oil Price War With Conventional War Characteristics

    This week: two audio essays, on one big Iran cluster-frig. In the Collingwood corner: Donald Trump has become an unreadable politician. His credibility has burst through various levels of ‘madman theory’ negotiating prowess, into a place where it may not even be clear to his most intimate subordinates where his true intent begins and ends. The result is that US policy is now a broken sail, flapping in the wind. Originally, America had four aims: dismantle Iran's nuclear programme, cap its missiles and drones, cut off its proxies, and change the regime. With nil-for-four, the window to credibly settle this beef is getting farther away – not closer. Meanwhile, chez Pilkington: The US now believes it can ‘print oil’. That the present attempt to jigger the markets by making use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and various ‘Whale of Hormuz’ attempts to rig the options market are long-term sustainable. They are not, as Phil points out. What goes up must come down, and the slip-slide will not be pretty. Rather than a war of attrition, Pilko suggests, the oil price war has become the totality of conflict – a Baudrillardian quarrel over supremacy of a number – only secondarily underpinned by the drones and bombs of the Arabian Gulf. Yes, it’s time to up the escitalopram – enter code HAPPYPILLS26 at checkout to redeem this offer.

  • S1 · E196
    July 9 · 56 min

    Slipping and Sliding, Spit and Polish

    It’s an oil rush. Fill your boots, fellers, America is releasing its strategic petroleum reserves, ostensibly to see down Iranian pressure. Good news for voters, great news for foreign countries who want to sponge of the US teat. But in its ducking and diving haste, has the Trump administration inadvertently drunk its own milkshake? Then in the second half of a two-parter, we’re digging into the brewing Ukranian-Polish conflict. At the earliest days of the Ukraine War, around 2014, their Parliament passed a series of laws which granted official veteran status to a couple of Second World War military groups who had, shall we say, colourful pasts. Recently, the Polish President withdrew the Polish White Eagle decoration from President Zelenskyy after Ukraine named an elite special unit after one such. Hundreds of hatchets were buried after Communism, but now, despite the shock of the war, old animosities are bubbling to the surface. And with them, the facade of a united Europe begins to crack.

  • S1 · E195
    July 2 · 11 min

    Pilkington Vs Collingwood: A Multipolarity Q&A Special

    This week on Multipolarity, we’re taking your questions. It’s a Q&A episode, involving queries sent in by our loyal listeners. Questions like: How did you guys meet? (Drunk, at a party). Which EU country will be first to do its own deal on Ukraine? (The first to fall to the populists) Where should young Euros emigrate to if Europe is ‘screwed’? (Find your bliss in the emerging world) Is the Rouble overvalued? (Depends on how you count) Could Turkey become the balancing power in the coming struggle between China and the US? (Probably not) What are the mechanics of oil price manipulation? (Dump a big short position on the market on Monday morning, squeeze the longs out) Why do we still live with the Boomer model of geopolitics? (Give it ten years) And several more. You had questions. We had answers. Of course, this week is a Pay Week - 1 in 4 episodes are gated for the folk who support our work. So if you want to get in amongst the Real Multipolarity Heads, you’ll need to sign up on Patreon or Substack. Substack gets you our print journalism too — head over, and get access to the entire back catalogue.

  • S1 · E194
    June 25 · 1 hr 4 min

    No Deal Is Better Than An Islama-bad Deal, The Godmother, Two Year Keir

    Iran’s 14 points: making the world safe for Shia Theocracy. Obviously, Donald Trump putting his John Hancock to the Islamabad Memorandum at Versailles carries absolutely no historical resonance. But after the occupation of the Ruhr and the abdication of the Kaiser, what else could the Mullahs possibly put on their shopping list? We’ll be picking through the carcrash, looking for signs of life in DC. Meanwhile, to cement his lousy week Donald got into a love tiff with Georgia Meloni at the G7. Was this a passing fugue of Italian passion? The flamethrower of a woman scorned? Or was it the beginning of the end of what we’ve dubbed the ‘Euroslopulists’ – fake populists kept on a long-short leash by Brussels and the European Central Bank? Finally, Donald Trump – remember him – managed to scoop the world’s press to the news that Keir Starmer would resign as British Prime Minister, being sure to spell his name wrong as a final boot in the teeth. Sir Keir has evoked the kind of visceral loathing among Brits normally reserved for child killers and queue jumpers. But who will they have left to blame when his affable dimwit successor blows up in half the time?

  • S1 · E193
    June 18 · 53 min

    Multipolarity Dialogues: The Other Superweapon - Adventures In Chinese AI, with TP Huang

    Fable — a short fantastical tale with a moral message. For weeks, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei was telling anyone who’d listen that he’d invented an AI so powerful it could walk through walls, shoot sparrows from the sky, talk to horses, invent trees. A death star of tech. Whether this was part of the sales pitch or genuine alarm, the US Government has taken him at his word, and shut off access to it beyond America’s shores. Suddenly, the biggest tech of the 21st century is at the heart of a new age of mercantilism. The world is waking up. But some of the world was already awake. TP Huang is one of the best China watchers out there. A programmer and tech specialist, he sees an even bigger battle coming. The divergence of chip supply chains, ever since the Biden Administration’s October surprise in 2022, now stands ready to produce a space race over not just the chips, but the software itself. In that aspect, China is perpetually six months to a year behind. But is six months really decisive, when you can do everything at a fraction of the cost of your rivals? And when you’re not just bowing down before a brain in a jar, but embedding AI in factories and robots? While the world focuses on AGI psychodrama in California and flat-footed despair in Brussels, this week, TP is talking to Andrew Collingwood about the flint-eyed Chinese strategy to build a truly insulated supply chain within the next ten years. You can read his full piece, published in two parts, on the Multipolarity Substack. https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/p/the-struggle-for-mastery-of-the-21st

  • S1 · E192
    June 11 · 1 hr 5 min

    Strait To Hell, Kim Jong Boom, Armenian Roulette

    It’s war in our time. After flirting with peace for a few miserable hours, the US and Iran are back to what they know best: taking uneven chunks out of each other amidst the world’s prime oil pathway. This week, Iran levelled a terminal of Kuwait’s airport, and attacked the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Then there was that mysterious Apache helicopter crash off Hormuz. Now, after the crisp kinetic strikes of the first few weeks – then the tentative tests of strength – the war is entering a new phase. One in which Iran shows that the US will not be able to achieve on the negotiating table what it did not achieve on the battlefield. Meanwhile, it’s a thriving Asian tiger, the skyscraper skyline of its capital shows the bustle and optimism of the Rising East. Mobile phones. Electric cars. That’s right — North Korea is this year’s big economic success story, according to a new piece in the Wall Street Journal. Turns out the Hermit Kingdom is less hermetic these days. North Koreans have made good money providing weapons to Russia in Ukraine, and China has turned on the trade taps. Pyongyang no longer rations electricity to a few hours every day. So what happens when North Korea is no longer a Potemkin village but a Potemkin megalopolis? Meanwhile, lose a war, get voted back in. Three years after the catastrophe in Nagorno-Karabakh, what inspired the Armenian people to re-elect Nikol Pashinyan? Perhaps it was precisely because of how vulnerable the country feels itself to be. The strategy is to buy off and shore up: peace with Azerbaijan, EU candidacy, and normalisation with old enemy Turkey. But how low can you lie in a region that Russia sees as its backyard? Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/

  • S1 · E191
    June 4 · 11 min

    Two Audio Essays: The Escalation Ladder & Weaponised Interdependence

    This week: two audio essays. First up, they’re calling it the Poor Man’s Tomahawk. Ukraine is firing up to 2000 long range drones a week into Russia. The production facilities supplying them are scattered across Western Europe. These production facilities have an artificial shield, in that they are diplomatically protected. But how long this will last is unclear. For its part, Ukraine would like the West to be more active in the war. And one way to do that would be to antagonise Russia into responding beyond its borders. There is now a 50% chance of erratic strikes into Europe proper within the next year, as Philip Pilkington makes clear in The Escalation Ladder. Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood has been supping on a 2019 masterwork of geopolitics. Weaponized Interdependence is the title of a Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman paper, in which the pair argue that states with political authority over the central "hubs" in global economic networks: such as those for finance, data, and trade, can exploit this position to gain a strategic advantage. States sitting atop those nodes can exploit two effects: panopticon (information dominance) and choke point (cutting off access to irreplaceable hubs). Hormuz is one hub. Russia has its commodity hubs. And China has its manufacturing hub dominance. Put it all together, and the new Iran war has revealed a structural shift in global power, says Andrew Collingwood. Of course, this is a pay week — if you want access to this episode, you’re going to have to go on Patreon, and sign up. Simply type Multipolarity into the search bar and do the needful. Alternatively, you can now get premium episodes and our regular print work over on Substack for 12 USD a month. The choice is yours, but don’t get caught in no man’s land.

  • S1 · E190
    May 28 · 1 hr 3 min

    Crossing The Orange Line, Hard Bargain, Sino Silicon

    Russia has rained Oreshnik hypersonic missiles on Kiev. Four people killed. 549 missiles apparently shot down. This was a message. The Oreshnik travels at Mach 10. It was designed to deliver nukes. As fighting season starts in earnest, year five looks like it might be the start of real escalation. But, if Russian munitions start tiptoeing ever further West, could this be the year of, you know, real real escalation? Meanwhile, the US-Iran war peace talks are going well: Iran wants tolls on the strait. US says no. Iran wants 12 billion in reparations. US says no. Nuclear weapons? They’re being kicked into another round of talks-about-talks. So why is Little Marco still predicting a deal within days? Finally, Huawei say they have figured out a new approach to chip design that doesn’t require them to be smaller. “What happens when you’ve got a silicon chip the size of a dinner plate?” is one key question. Another is what happens when chips are no longer the ace card for Western leverage. Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/

  • S1 · E189
    May 21 · 51 min

    Huawei With The Fairies, Land of The Falling Bond, Montezuma’s Other Revenge

    Donald Trump took Elon Musk and Jensen Huang to Beijing with him for 48 hours. But rather than the frat boy big weekend of their autistic dreams, the trip turned into a sequel to The Hangover. A dressing down from President Xi on Iran, a few more soybeans flogged, and some Boeings on order: was it worth Jensen’s $17 000 an hour time? Meanwhile, the Japanese 10 year bond yield has climbed above the Chinese one. This is something of a sorpasso. As the country struggles to keep its debt load manageable, there’s a sense of sag to the economy. Does the Japan of our techno-futurist imaginations now bear the same degree of relation to reality – as the Italy of our Fellini fantasies? Finally – another sorpasso – Mexican birth rates have dipped below those of America for the first time. Problem being, if the Mexicans don’t have sex, they can’t supply the US with a constant source of surplus labour. US conservatives have long been scornful of European immigration patterns, falling back on the cultural compatibility of their southern neighbours – but unless Pablo and Maria get back in the bedroom, they’ll soon be receiving the same rich blend of Africans and Middle Easterners as the EU. Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/

  • S1 · E188
    May 14 · 55 min

    Two Audio Essays: The Oil Infrastructure Breakdown & How Epstein Could Bring Down The British Bond Markets

    This week: a tale of two audio essays. Philip is going deep dive on the coming oil crisis. He sees a two-wave format emerging. The initial wave - dropping in a month or so, is already baked in. “The oil infrastructure is like a body,” he says. “if the heart stops pumping, the cells stop oxygenating, after a while they begin to die off.” They're "living chemical engineering systems" that need constant throughput. Shutdowns normally require years of planning and cost hundreds of millions. This will entail real damage to the global oil infrastructure, but eventually reparable. And then a second wave - if things persist into the autumn. Which will mean an inflationary depression. Real declines in global living standards. That future portends a potential schism – a genuine multipolar moment, as the Strait is hived off to genuine Iranian control, under the aegis of Russia and China. His message is simple: “Enjoy the beginning of summer…” While you still can. Meanwhile, Andrew has turned his attention towards Broken Britain. With the Prime Minister now holed below the waterline, is there still any potential universe in which Britain avoids a big bond market shock? What he’s calling The Madame Butterfly Effect explains how Jeffrey Epstein could crash the UK economy. During the period in which Mandelson left politics (after 2010), a new form of political operator emerged. What Matt Stoller calls 'entrepreneurial brokers'. An American gold mining company wishes to secure a stake in a new deposit in Siberia. A major British political donor wants to raise capital for his son’s hedge fund. An Italian politician might enjoy access to a luxury yacht twice a year. Mandelson found himself 'fixing things'. In the Unipolar world order, he says, nations specialised. Britain’s specialisation was financial services and openness to trade, which in turn allowed it to piggyback on US foreign policy. This, however, led to deindustrialisation and to associated policies such as openness to high immigration. But that system of integration, of the entrepreneurial brokers running things, is now capsizing, thanks to Epstein. The Labour Left will likely take charge after Starmer's resignation. They have no brokers. And no links into the real world of high level market traders who might smooth their passage. Another cheery week. Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/

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