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muckrAIkers

Jacob Haimes and Igor Krawczuk

Join us as we dig a tiny bit deeper into the hype surrounding "AI" press releases, research papers, and more. Each episode, we'll highlight ongoing research and investigations, providing some much needed contextualization, constructive critique, and even a smidge of occasional good will teasing to the conversation, trying to find the meaning under all of this muck.

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  • 24 episodes
  • Avg 1 hr 4 min
  • English

Episodes 24

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  • #9
    Dec 23, 2024 · 1 hr 16 min

    OpenAI's o1 System Card, Literally Migraine Inducing

    The idea of model cards, which was introduced as a measure to increase transparency and understanding of LLMs, has been perverted into the marketing gimmick characterized by OpenAI's o1 system card. To demonstrate the adversarial stance we believe is necessary to draw meaning from these press-releases-in-disguise, we conduct a close read of the system card. Be warned, there's a lot of muck in this one. Note: All figures/tables discussed in the podcast can be found on the podcast website at https://kairos.fm/muckraikers/e009/ (00:00) - Recorded 2024.12.08 (00:54) - Actual intro (03:00) - System cards vs. academic papers (05:36) - Starting off sus (08:28) - o1.continued (12:23) - Rant #1: figure 1 (18:27) - A diamond in the rough (19:41) - Hiding copyright violations (21:29) - Rant #2: Jacob on "hallucinations" (25:55) - More ranting and "hallucination" rate comparison (31:54) - Fairness, bias, and bad science comms (35:41) - System, dev, and user prompt jailbreaking (39:28) - Chain-of-thought and Rao-Blackwellization (44:43) - "Red-teaming" (49:00) - Apollo's bit (51:28) - METR's bit (59:51) - Pass@??? (01:04:45) - SWE Verified (01:05:44) - Appendix bias metrics (01:10:17) - The muck and the meaning Links o1 system card OpenAI press release collection - 12 Days of OpenAI Additional o1 Coverage NIST + AISI [report] - US AISI and UK AISI Joint Pre-Deployment Test Apollo Research's paper - Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Scheming VentureBeat article - OpenAI launches full o1 model with image uploads and analysis, debuts ChatGPT Pro The Atlantic article - The GPT Era Is Already Ending On Data Labelers 60 Minutes article + video - Labelers training AI say they're overworked, underpaid and exploited by big American tech companies Reflections article - The hidden health dangers of data labeling in AI development Privacy International article = Humans in the AI loop: the data labelers behind some of the most powerful LLMs' training datasets Chain-of-Thought Papers Cited Paper - Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning Paper - Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting Paper - On the Hardness of Faithful Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in Large Language Models Paper - Faithfulness vs. Plausibility: On the (Un)Reliability of Explanations from Large Language Models Other Mentioned/Relevant Sources Andy Jones blogpost - Rao-Blackwellization Paper - Training on the Test Task Confounds Evaluation and Emergence Paper - Best-of-N Jailbreaking Research landing page - SWE Bench Code Competition - Konwinski Prize Lakera game = Gandalf Kate Crawford's Atlas of AI BlueDot Impact's course - Intro to Transformative AI Unrelated Developments Cruz's letter to Merrick Garland AWS News Blog article - Introducing Amazon Nova foundation models: Frontier intelligence and industry leading price performance BleepingComputer article - Ultralytics AI model hijacked to infect thousands with cryptominer The Register article - Microsoft teases Copilot Vision, the AI sidekick that judges your tabs Fox Business article - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman looking forward to working with Trump admin, says US must build best AI infrastructure

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  • #8
    Dec 2, 2024 · 58 min

    How to Safely Handle Your AGI

    While on the campaign trail, Trump made claims about repealing Biden's Executive Order on AI, but what will actually be changed when he gets into office? We take this opportunity to examine policies being discussed or implemented by leading governments around the world. (00:00) - Intro (00:29) - Hot off the press (02:59) - Repealing the AI executive order? (11:16) - "Manhattan" for AI (24:33) - EU (30:47) - UK (39:27) - Bengio (44:39) - Comparing EU/UK to USA (45:23) - China (51:12) - Taxes (55:29) - The muck Links SFChronicle article - US gathers allies to talk AI safety as Trump's vow to undo Biden's AI policy overshadows their work Trump's Executive Order on AI (the AI governance executive order at home) Biden's Executive Order on AI Congressional report brief which advises a "Manhattan Project for AI" Non-USA CAIRNE resource collection on CERN for AI UK Frontier AI Taskforce report (2023) International interim report (2024) Bengio's paper - AI and Catastrophic Risk Davidad's Safeguarded AI program at ARIA MIT Technology Review article - Four things to know about China’s new AI rules in 2024 GovInsider article - Australia’s national policy for ethical use of AI starts to take shape Future of Privacy forum article - The African Union’s Continental AI Strategy: Data Protection and Governance Laws Set to Play a Key Role in AI Regulation Taxes Macroeconomic Dynamics paper - Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax CESifo paper - AI, Automation, and Taxation GavTax article - Taxation of Artificial Intelligence and Automation Perplexity Pages CERN for AI page China's AI policy page Singapore's AI policy page AI policy in Africa, India, Australia page Other Sources Artificial Intelligence Made Simple article - NYT's "AI Outperforms Doctors" Story Is Wrong Intel report - Reclaim Your Day: The Impact of AI PCs on Productivity Heise Online article - Users on AI PCs slower, Intel sees problem in unenlightened users The Hacker News article - North Korean Hackers Steal $10M with AI-Driven Scams and Malware on LinkedIn Futurism article - Character.AI Is Hosting Pedophile Chatbots That Groom Users Who Say They're Underage Vice article - 'AI Jesus' Is Now Taking Confessions at a Church in Switzerland Politico article - Ted Cruz: Congress 'doesn't know what the hell it's doing' with AI regulation US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation press release - Sen. Cruz Sounds Alarm Over Industry Role in AI Czar Harris’s Censorship Agenda

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  • #7
    Nov 19, 2024 · 1 hr 7 min

    The End of Scaling?

    Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an "end of scaling" for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of "AI". (00:23) - Hot off the press (01:49) - The end of scaling (10:50) - "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI" (17:19) - The end of quantization (25:18) - Hedging (29:41) - The end of upwards mobility (33:12) - How to grow an economy (38:14) - Transformative & disruptive tech (49:19) - Finding the meaning (56:14) - Bursting AI bubble and Trump (01:00:58) - The muck Links The Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements Slows Bloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI Reuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitations Paper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for Precision Tim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision" Empirical Analysis WU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions IMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US Regions NBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political Preferences Pew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs? Forecasting NBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AI NBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AI IMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work Submission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely Externalities and the Bursting Bubble NBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets Clayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovation The New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong. Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble Burst On Productization Palantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defense Ars Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir deal OpenAI press release on partnering with Condé Nast Candid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIA E2B Stripe agents Robopair Other Sources CBS News article - Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die." Biometric Update article - Travelers to EU may be subjected to AI lie detector Techcrunch article - OpenAI’s tumultuous early years revealed in emails from Musk, Altman, and others Richard Ngo Tweet on leaving OpenAI

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  • #6
    Nov 6, 2024 · 1 hr 16 min

    US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024

    October 2024 saw a National Security Memorandum and US framework for using AI in national security contexts. We go through the content so you don't have to, pull out the important bits, and summarize our main takeaways. (00:48) - The memorandum (06:28) - What the press is saying (10:39) - What's in the text (13:48) - Potential harms (17:32) - Miscellaneous notable stuff (31:11) - What's the US governments take on AI? (45:45) - The civil side - comments on reporting (49:31) - The commenters (01:07:33) - Our final hero (01:10:46) - The muck Links United States National Security Memorandum on AI Fact Sheet on the National Security Memorandum Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security Related Media CAIS Newsletter - AI Safety Newsletter #43 NIST report - Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile ACLU press release - ACLU Warns that Biden-Harris Administration Rules on AI in National Security Lack Key Protections Wikipedia article - Presidential Memorandum Reuters article - White House presses gov't AI use with eye on security, guardrails Forbes article - America’s AI Security Strategy Acknowledges There’s No Stopping AI DefenseScoop article - New White House directive prods DOD, intelligence agencies to move faster adopting AI capabilities NYTimes article - Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools Forbes article - 5 Things To Know About The New National Security Memorandum On AI – And What ChatGPT Thinks Federal News Network interview - A look inside the latest White House artificial intelligence memo Govtech article - Reactions Mostly Positive to National Security AI Memo The Information article - Biden Memo Encourages Military Use of AI Other Sources Physical Intelligence press release - π0: Our First Generalist Policy OpenAI press release - Introducing ChatGPT Search WhoPoo App!!

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