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Moving Markets

Julius Baer

Moving Markets is the home of podcasts at Julius Baer. Here, our expert teams share concise daily market updates in ‘Moving Markets Daily’ which is complemented by ‘Moving Markets: The View Beyond’, a weekly show dedicated to discussing the context, thematic angles, and investment implications behind key topics shaping the news cycle and conversations among our relationship managers and clients.

The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.

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Today · 12 min
US Treasury yields surge the most since last year’s tariff turmoil and what's next for gold?
US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:04) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Yesterday · 15 min
AI rally powers Nasdaq to record high
The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh record as investors continued to back AI-related stocks, while oil prices fell on hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, share how last week's Fed rate hike has impacted their expectations for bond and equity markets, and discuss the key risks and opportunities investors are watching now. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:07) - Bond markets after the FOMC: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (09:18) - Equity markets after the FOMC: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (14:24) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Tuesday · 14 min
A new Muse inspires equity markets
Oil prices fell yesterday after President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iran’s leader this week. The accompanying enthusiasm carried over into both European and US bond and equity markets. And these were further boosted by positive headlines around Meta’s new AI Chatbot, Muse, boosting Meta’s share price by 11% in the session and powering a surge in the technology heavy hitters that helped the Nasdaq Composite close at a new record high. The upcoming summit between the US and China is now in focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s podcast and talks, amongst other things, about the impact of Chinese electric vehicles outside their home market. Tune in to hear more of his thoughts on the importance of electrification and the outlook for Future Mobility. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:58) - Future mobility: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research (13:43) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Monday · 10 min
Oil prices fall ahead of a busy week
Technology and semiconductor stocks started the week on a positive note, while oil prices fell as traders anticipated a recovery in Saudi shipments, despite continued geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Germany, pressure on the Japanese yen, and optimism ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, remain in focus. In today’s show, we discuss the latest developments across global markets and are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who examines the signals emerging from the US market, the state of investor sentiment and the technical outlook for information technology stocks (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:54) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Saturday · 24 min
The View Beyond: Earnings growth beyond the Magnificent Seven
Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight? In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches. (00:00) - Introduction (01:02) - Equity market performance in 2026 (02:47) - Sector winners and laggards year to date (04:10) - Key surprises from the latest earnings season (05:45) - The challenge of beating market expectations (06:05) - Concentration risk and the AI-driven rally (08:28) - Equity research process and sector ranking (10:44) - Overweight sectors: financials, health care, communications (12:31) - Financials: retail banks, payment networks, rating agencies (12:39) - Health care: pharma, biotech, MedTech (17:29) - Communications: internet platforms, telecom operators, AI infrastructure (20:49) - Year-end investing mistakes to avoid (23:17) - Closing remarks (23:43) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Friday · 18 min
Stocks jump as oil and yields retreat
Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:52) - Fed and BOJ: David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:43) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (17:55) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 17 · 14 min
Markets react to a hawkish Fed whilst digesting the latest energy price moves
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike in three years. The accompanying projections and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled a hawkish tilt. Markets responded by raising expectations for another rate hike by year-end, lifting the USD and short-term Treasury yields, while gold held up well. Equities weakened overall, although losses were relatively modest outside the Dow Jones. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses high oil, but even higher, diesel prices and why political interference is unlikely to derail the energy transition. Fixed income strategist, Afonso Borges, notes that bond markets have taken the Fed's communication mostly positively. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:47) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Energy markets update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:35) - Fixed income update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (13:43) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 16 · 13 min
Bond yields surge ahead of Fed decision
Rising oil prices and higher inflation concerns dominated markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision. Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, with the US 10-year yield breaching 5%, while government bond yields moved sharply higher across Europe and Asia. Equity markets struggled under the weight of rising rates, although energy stocks outperformed as oil prices rallied on supply disruption fears. In today's show, we discuss the key market drivers ahead of the Fed meeting and are joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who explains the latest changes to Swiss equity indices and examines what the recent rise in bond yields could mean for equity investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:59) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy (12:23) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 15 · 14 min
Beware the ides of September?
Oil prices and global bond yields continued their ascent on Monday and the US 10-year treasury yield has hit the 5.02% this morning - a level not seen since 2007. Markets are now pricing in a 92% probability of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. And with expectations amongst traders growing that this will just be the first hike in a cycle, Kevin Warsh's statement after the meeting will be even more closely scrutinised than normal. With AI headlines a key driver of global equity market in the last 24 hours, tune in to today's podcast to hear Next Generation research analyst Enrico Chinello's view on the unfolding situation and what it means for investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:14) - AI - pacing the frontier?: Enrico Chinello, Next Generation (13:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 14 · 9 min
Rates, risks and rising oil: a pivotal week for investors
Markets are starting a pivotal week on the back foot, as AI-related stocks retreat following safety concerns raised by the chief executives of Anthropic and OpenAI. Investor sentiment has been further dampened by reports that OpenAI is not expected to go public this year. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving higher as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate. Against this backdrop, attention is turning to a busy week for monetary policy, with markets bracing for interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his views on how much further oil prices could rise and where 10-year US Treasury yields may ultimately peak. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (01:02) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:13) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 12 · 16 min
The View Beyond: Market Outlook Year-End 2026 – US headlines, global opportunities
As we head towards the final quarter of 2026, investors face a shifting landscape where AI remains the key growth engine but market leadership is broadening beyond US technology. With volatility persisting and geopolitical risks still in focus, where might the best opportunities lie for investors positioning their portfolios for the year end? In this episode, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Julius Baer’s Head of Research, Christian Gattiker, and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, to discuss their outlook for the markets for the year end. The conversation covers the evolving AI investment cycle and the broadening of equity market leadership, as well as the implications of US politics, Fed uncertainty, and ongoing Middle East tensions. They examine equity opportunities across regions and sectors globally, as well as their preferred positioning in fixed income. The conversation also covers the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and gold. And finally, there’s also a suggestion for investors about what not to do as they head towards 2027. (00:00) - Introduction (00:44) - Setting the big picture for 2026 and beyond (02:13) - US market focus and the AI investment cycle (03:07) - China’s economic outlook and policy stance (04:18) - Japan: Rate hike expectations and yen dynamics (05:27) - Central banks, Middle East tensions, and inflation impact (07:28) - Portfolio positioning for year-end (08:26) - Broadening equity market leadership (10:21) - Fixed income opportunities and duration (11:58) - Currencies, gold, and oil outlook (13:49) - What investors should avoid now (14:22) - Key takeaways from Asia and global perspective (15:33) - Closing remarks (16:20) - Legal information Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 11 · 15 min
A hawkish ECB and 10-year US Treasury yield near 5%
US and European bond yields rose sharply as investors priced in higher inflation amid this week's rise in oil prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, but the increase in bond yields was truly global, weighing on global equities and precious metals. Despite the broader risk-off tone, AI-related investment remained a constructive theme, supported by Oracle’s results and Microsoft's data centre expansion plans. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses the ECB’s hawkish message and key considerations ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:46) - ECB and US inflation data: David Kohl, Chief Economist (15:03) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 10 · 10 min
Oil surges, yields spike and central banks take centre stage
Markets remain under pressure as oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude now trading above the psychologically significant USD 100 per barrel mark. Attention is firmly focused on today’s European Central Bank rate decision, where another hike is widely expected, as well as key US inflation data due later today and tomorrow. Against this backdrop, global government bond yields have risen to levels not seen in years. In today’s episode, we welcome Afonso Borges from our Fixed Income Research team. He shares his perspective on the US Treasury’s somewhat underwhelming buyback announcement and explains why he believes many of the concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are already reflected in current market pricing. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:42) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:59) - US and European Government bond markets: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (09:37) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 9 · 20 min
Oil rally fuels inflation concerns
Oil prices surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, pushing inflation back into focus ahead of key US CPI and PPI releases later this week. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Canada intensified, while political uncertainty in Europe remained elevated following German state elections and continued debate over France’s fiscal outlook. In today’s show, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his views on the energy market and explains why global oil supply remains more resilient than many investors fear. We also speak with Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, about rising political fragmentation across Europe and what it means for equity investors. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:15) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:45) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (14:11) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (19:06) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 8 · 11 min
Oil up, JPY up, gold buying, and the wild ride in digital assets
Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns are pushing bond yields higher, and the result of Sunday's German state elections is weighing on sentiment in Europe. China bought the most gold in a month since 2023, and the Japanese yen is up to its strongest since February. Robust Chinese export growth comes ahead of ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit to the US this month. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about digital assets - not only what has driven their wild ride this year, but also what would be needed for them to recover more permanently. (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:35) - Update on the digital assets market: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 7 · 12 min
Markets digest data and tech news
Equity markets reacted to the August US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which surprised to the upside, leading traders to believe that a hike is now more likely from the Fed on 16 September. Treasury yields moved higher, and the Dow and the S&P 500 closed the day lower. The Nasdaq 100 however closed above the flatline on Friday as tech stocks received a boost from OpenAI. This optimism spread to Asian markets this morning, with tech stocks there in buoyant mood, despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Mensur Pocinci, our Head of Technical Analysis, assesses rising Treasury yields and what investors should watch out for in the coming days, and also offers his technical view on the yen and Japanese equities after a remarkable week. (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (07:32) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (11:55) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 5 · 13 min
The View Beyond: Japan’s structural revival takes centre stage
Strong earnings, improving shareholder returns, corporate reforms, and continued AI-related demand have reinforced the case for Japanese equities. But with a stronger yen and policy normalisation underway, can Japan's momentum continue? In this episode, Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Investment Specialists at Julius Baer, speaks with Louis Chua, Equity Research Analyst Asia, about the latest earnings season, the outlook for AI and the Japanese yen, opportunities beyond technology, and the structural drivers underpinning their constructive view on Japanese equities. (00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Key highlights of a strong earnings season (03:19) - Why does management guidance remain conservative (04:26) - A pickup in earnings revisions (05:25) - Has the dynamic between yen and Japanese equities changed? (07:14) - Why are we still positive on AI? (08:16) - Japan’s position in the AI ecosystem (09:00) - Opportunities beyond AI (10:00) - The big narrative shift (10:44) - Why we remain constructive on Japan
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September 4 · 12 min
Fed Governor Waller eases rate hike fears
Markets received a boost from stronger-than-expected economic data in Switzerland and resilient activity across the eurozone. In the US, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped push Treasury yields lower and supported risk assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed to their highest levels in weeks amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In today’s show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen, gold and EUR/USD. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:34) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva (11:45) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 3 · 12 min
Yields pause, markets find their footing, Yen gains, gold rises
Equity markets found their footing as oil prices and Treasury yields paused their recent rise, while US economic data and Fed commentary reinforced a resilient growth outlook. The Fed's Beige Book pointed to continued expansion, albeit with persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Higher energy prices weighed on sentiment in Europe, while the yen strengthened on expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold gained after days of weakness on a weaker USD, and Asian equities were somewhat supported by renewed optimism around AI-driven chip demand. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, talks about the latest escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and whether oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:30) - Energy markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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September 2 · 11 min
Global bond yields climb ever higher
Renewed fighting in the Middle East sent oil prices and bond yields higher yesterday as gold lost its lustre and equity markets retreated. Inflation data in the eurozone did not help matters, rising to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the ECB next week, and concerns are mounting about whether the Fed will also raise rates in September. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins the podcast to discuss the elevated yield levels, Kevin Warsh's messaging, and how he believes bond investors could best position themselves in the current environment. (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:54) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:09) - Yields on the rise, fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income (10:20) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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