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Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Mallen Baker

'Dangerously reasonable' analysis on politics, science, and particularly the bit where they bump into each other. I aim to give an independent, fact-focused, non-ideological take on the issues that matter.

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#657
Yesterday · 16 min
Trump In Full-On Panic Over Mid-Terms - Hints At A Coming 'Surprise'
The polls continue to give worse and worse news for Trump and the GOP over the coming mid-term elections, and now the signs are all over the place that panic is setting in. This involves President Trump posting constantly on social media, firing off in all directions, picking absurd fights, focusing on everything except the issues that seem to matter most for Americans. But in the course of all the thrashing about, there are signs that desperation is also taking a potential darker turn. Let's di
#656
Tuesday · 17 min
Russia Plague Report Shows The World Learned Nothing From Covid
One woman died from an unspecified illness in Russia - which wouldn't be a point of concern except that she worked in a laboratory that deals with the plague, and post-Covid there are concerns about just what sort of work might be being done, by a Russian state known to be involved with bioweapons research, to modify such bacteria - maybe into a form that could shape a new global pandemic. The odds are against that - but the incident is revealing just how little we learned from Covid, and how ba
#655
Friday · 28 min
Trump's Attacks On Allies Blow Up In His Face | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 2nd 2026. The G20 trade ministers revolt against the Trump administration's demands that they line up behind America's trade agenda. It turns out that abusing allies turns them into ex-allies. Britain's new prime minister has electrified the political climate in the United Kingdom with just a speech - but what's really changed, and why might wider lessons be applicable? And Robert F Kennedy Junior's MAHA movement continues to fall out of love
#654
October 1 · 12 min
Trump's Divide And Conquer Plan To Blow Up NATO
NATO members have just discovered that the Trump administration has set up a meeting to discuss the future of the alliance, and has pointedly NOT invited some of its key members, including the United Kingdom and France. This seems to be the latest move in President Trump's plan to punish any allies who refuse to behave as vassal states, while rewarding those that have been more compliant. Alongside Pete Hegseth's 'state of the force' speech yesterday, and the demand that Europeans release diesel
#653
September 30 · 14 min
Why Trump's Latest Putin Plan Has His Own Side Disgusted
Recently, President Donald Trump has increased the pace of his attempt to rehabilitate Vladimir Putin's Russia in the world community. To all appearances, this seems driven by an increasingly urgent wish to strike lucrative deals with it, perhaps recognising that the options will narrow after a mid-term election setback, should that be imminent. So all the talk about needing to get peace with Ukraine first seems to be on the slide. And he has come up with a new feeble cover for such an act - eve
#652
September 29 · 14 min
Russia's Hybrid War: How Europe Is Side-Stepping Trump In Its Response
Two things in one week. One - European countries have been meeting together to look at how they respond - outside of NATO - to Russia's increasing hybrid warfare against them. And two - a leaked report from the Belgian Foreign Ministry reveals how they see, and are responding to, US President Donald Trump internally. Saying the things that they really don't want to go public on, and which give the context for why they are forming an alliance that sidesteps the Atlantic treaty. But can a Europe w
#651
September 25 · 25 min
How Xi Left Trump With Two Pandas And A Short Truce | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 25th, 2026: China's Xi Jinping has his big state visit hosted by President Trump. Almost none of the important things were said out loud. Trump invites Vladimir Putin to the G20 meeting in November, setting up a unintended opportunity for President Zelensky to exploit. And Trump calls on the world to abandon the International Criminal Court as his administration gets ready to impose sanctions. And it promises to be the first test of how much
#650
September 23 · 18 min
The Bizarre Conspiracy Of Silence On The Greenland Deal
The day after the deal was signed between President Donald Trump, Denmark and Greenland, and we've had time to absorb the full text of the agreement and the differing narratives that have circulated in its wake. The MAGA narrative is obvious, and probably required - 'Trump won'. But the other narrative is remarkable for how pervasive it is, how unquestioned it has been across multiple media outlets, and how fragile a hold on reality it seems to have. Having touched on this briefly before the dea
#649
September 22 · 17 min
How Xi Jinping's China Is Taming Donald Trump
Today was a helter skelter of foreign policy set pieces for President Trump, with the United Nations General Assembly in full swing. But tomorrow is when the real action begins, when China's Xi Jinping arrives for his state visit to the US. Relations between the two competing giants are fraught, but also the Trump team have been almost uniquely restrained. And that's because - for now, at least, President Xi is playing Trump with a degree of skill, backed by strength, that no other leader has ye
#648
September 19 · 16 min
Is Greenland Making A Huge Mistake?
President Donald Trump has announced an imminent deal between Denmark, Greenland and the United States - and that has been confirmed in outline by the other parties. Some are presenting this as Trump getting what he always wanted, others that it is a neutral deal that will remove all the energy and drive behind Trump's obsession with buying the territory, or even taking it by force. But given recent history, neither story seems likely - and it could well be that Denmark and Greenland are about t
#647
September 18 · 21 min
Trump's Worst Week As Reality Smacks Him In The Face | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday 18th September 2026. President Trump has one of the worst weeks of his second term as all the big things come home to roost at the same time. Also, since Vladimir Putin shows no sign of ending his war on Ukraine in order to do deals with the US, Trump considers striking deals with him anyway, even as the war continues on. And Congress goes home a day early - purely to prevent articles of impeachment against defence secretary Pete Hegseth from being de
#646
September 17 · 19 min
Why Canada and Europe's Move Just Sent Trump Into a Fury
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke today at the European Parliament, just one day after EC President Ursula von der Leyen called for Canada to become the first 'associate member' of the European Union. Needless to say, this news - which, at first glance has nothing to do with him, went down extremely badly with US President Donald Trump, who remarked that if he decides this is a hostile act, he could end all trade with Europe, or Canada, or tariffs. Or something. But how significant is to
#645
September 15 · 14 min
Republicans Turn on Trump Over Putin Oligarch Wedding Gift
A number of prominent Republicans have turned from Donald Trump and his family in disgust. Not because of Trump's support for Putin over Ukraine. Not because of his disastrous war in Iran. No - because a Putin-linked Oligarch funded a two-day wedding after-party for Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr. This was a blatant display of the most massive conflict of interest - and it underlined once again what we have known from day one of the second Trump term. Trump is an adversary of Ukraine, not an ally.
#644
September 14 · 13 min
Trump Insists The AI Apocalypse Be Made In America
All weekend, the talk has been about the AI apocalypse, with the most well-known and powerful AI company leaders letting it be known that they favour a slowdown so the technology doesn't get out of control. It turns out that President Donald Trump has no time for such talk, he's obviously better informed on such things that the AI CEOs, and anyway - there's one driving reason why he doesn't want to slow down. And if it means accelerating towards aforementioned apocalypse, well, so be it. Let's d
#643
September 11 · 29 min
How JD Vance Is Getting Ready for When Trump Is Gone | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 11th 2026: The Iranians take actions to escalate the war with the US, even as Trump is trying to keep it quiet. JD Vance lays out his stall for his shot at the presidency in 2028 as echoes of politics-as-usual can just faintly be heard. Everybody is talking about whether AI is soon about to end all human life on the planet - which would put the other items into context. And Germany lets it be known it is not happy with President Trump's prom
#642
September 10 · 11 min
Why Trump's Big Bribe Is Designed To Fail
President Donald Trump spoke for two hours at his unusual midterm elections conference - and the big headline was that he promised to pay every adult citizen of the United States $5,000 should Republicans win both the Senate and the House. Yes, this is obvious and naked bribery. Yes, it should be illegal if anyone's enforcing such laws any more. But really it's part of a pattern - a promise that's made that is clearly going to fail by design. And while it's been truly massive in terms of grabbin
#641
September 8 · 15 min
Trump's War on Canada Has Nothing to Do With Trade
Today saw the imposition of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in the latest phase of its trade war with Donald Trump's America. In response, he has blustered and insulted, and today launched a broadside against Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier. But those covering the dispute as being about trade are missing the essential core of the conflict - which explains why the recent deal always had to fail, and the nature of the real struggle facing Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadia
#640
September 7 · 18 min
The Far-Right AfD Just Pulled Down Germany's Firewall - And Maybe Europe's As Well
The AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was not unexpected - polls have been forecasting the likely victory for months. But it remains shocking for what it represents. Because the AfD is not a populist like President Donald Trump, the clown show variety. Nor is it like Giorgia Meloni, the radical who detoxified the party into moderation. It is avowedly radical, and hostile to current Western attitudes to its core. And it has two big-picture implications that will resonate for the coming decade. Let's d
#639
September 4 · 22 min
Pete Hegseth - Trump's Pick For Next President? | News Round-Up
In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 4th 2026: The resignation of US Army secretary Dan Driscoll leaves Pete Hegseth exposed as more voices are raised against him - but could that actually make him the next MAGA presidential candidate? The US tells American space companies to consider avoiding a space conference being held by President Macron because the US wants to monopolise anything to do with space and France is to be considered a borderline enemy. And MAGA-lite Reform UK h
#638
September 3 · 16 min
Trump Needs The Iran War To Go Quiet - But Iran Won't Let It
The last few days have seen missiles exchanged once again between the United States and Iran. For all President Trump's threats to escalate and hit Iran 'harder than ever', he obviously is keen for the outburst to subside. And that's because the strategies have shifted into one where stalemate is the underpinning context, and each side is pursuing the course that they believe gives them the most advantage. Let's discuss.

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